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PelicanBill

Gordon and Florence

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Well how quickly things can develop.

 

Tropical Storm Gordon became named this morning as it is passing over the southern tip of Florida. 2-6" of rain expected over the south half of Florida. Heavier rains expected in a landfall somewhere NE of New Orleans and deep into Louisiana. Stormy conditions for coastal LA, MI, AL and far western FL Panhandle as well.

 

Out in the Atlantic, Florence churns slowly NW as a tropical storm with nothing in danger, but, models are not suggesting a turn to the N any more so we need to keep an eye on Bermuda, as the forecast has it staying at least tropical storm strength for some time.

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Gordon is a compact, fast moving storm. Even though forecast to be Category 1 when it makes landfall, it will affect a very small area with wind and there won't be a large storm surge. Wind and rain will cover a larger area but not to damaging extent. I think all the news hype on flooding and New Orleans is overblown, the systems will handle this storm easily.

 

Here's a good graphic to show how small the wind fields are. Not sure how long it will exist but for now... yellow is hurricane force 1 winds, light green is tropical storm, dark green is tropical depression winds. New Orleans will be just outside the tropivcal storm force winds if this forecast comes true.

AL072018ltsz.gif?854030028

 

Meanwhile, Florence is holding on and conditions are now favorable to develop into a Cat 1 hurricane, and its direction is holding NW toward Bermuda. Still too soon to see how close it may come.

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@PelicanBill ... always great to read your concise & easy to understood analysis and summary. Thank you.

 

With the 2017 hurricane season, I remember one or two Atlantic storm that looped around, sort of doing boomerang after it's supposed to move onward into the north Atlantic, ending up spinning around & threatened the US mainland at some point. :')Any (slim) chance of Florence doing that, pass:')ing Bermuda :')or head for the East Coast, then turn & go in the other direction - with the jet stream pattern, or, too early along its current path to see the possibility at all. Then, that next possible tropical depression in the Cabo Verde now, might be in play ... sometime next week.

 

Got a Bermuda run in late October on the Escape ... we aren't worried, but our luck with Nor-Easter hasn't been exactly "good" either, late in the hurricane season.

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Thanks @mking8288! I remember those loopey storms well, and the year before my Bermuda cruises was waived off and became a second trip to Port Canaveral and Nassau under stormy skies just after each was visited by some hurricane damage!

 

So Florence is forecast for favorable atmosphere to develop to Category 1 right about 5 days from now. Sunday. Here's what it looks like from NHC:

143848_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

The models generally agree on a typical Atlantic curve to the north and then northeast. It's just really hard to tell how close it will come to Bermuda yet. So I expect the ships heading there this weekend will be watching closely: if Florence is already turning north at the closest point above then Escape will be able to get in there 3 days later on the 12th. I can't make a strong confidence prediction until closer to Friday I think.

 

I am also hoping for a quiet October this year as we head out on Breakaway October 27 toward San Juan and a tour of 8 more ports before arriving in New Orleans! Last year's Breakaway to east and south Caribbean was also waived off to a western Caribbean instead because of hurricane damage, after a THIRD visit to Port Canaveral and Nassau. We can't miss out three years in a row, can we?

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I will sneak in another point of concern: The disturbance now being tracked south of the Azores has an 80% chance to become a cyclone within 5 days! Since it is more south, there is greater chance of a close encounter with the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, etc. but models at this point suggest it will track WNW in parallel to Florence. Way to early to have any idea but another one to watch. That's three in just a week after such a quiet summer.

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Good news: Gordon is not making hurricane strength as it nears landfall and is no longer predicted to do so.

 

Florence, however, has unexpectedly made hurricane strength now and has a stronger forecast, but really no change in concerns 5 days out from now.

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Gordon is almost history today. Florence is a growing concern. There is a wobble in the forecast path that keeps it pointed more at Bermuda than I would like. The wind field map I like to study (from skeetobite.com) now shows Bermuda on the 5 day path below. The Forecast discussion remarked how this storm defied the models and forecasters by intensifying. Hoping it will fizzle out for Bermuda and the cruisers next weekend.

AL062018lts.gif?1068317655

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