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ESCAPE - September 9th Bermuda - TS/H Florence

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You do know there is a lot more to a companies financial health than just their "worth", right? Over the last four quarters they've had net profits in excess of $800 million on revenue approaching $6 billion. Their profits and revenues over the last four quarters have all been up year over year. And no, they may not be at their all time high but they are not far from it.

 

Yes, but when a company is worth less than they were 3 years ago, you generally accept that things haven't gone great for them and bad decisions/execution took place in the companies semi-recent past. And being "not far from" your market cap from 3 years ago isn't any kind of achievement.

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I never said stock price is a barometer for customer service. I merely said that it was an indicator of how strong the business has been in the past/is now, and a company who has a market cap that's lower now than it was 3 years ago hasn't made good business decisions along the way. You proved my point correct by pointing out their China misstep. It seems reasonable to believe they've made more than a single mistake in the history of their company that's put them in this position. Obviously I can't prove it's because of poor customer service, because I'd need additional numbers like marketing spend and retention rates relative to other cruise lines in order to calculate that.

 

The point is simple: you, and anyone else, has no grounds to argue that questioning NCL's business practices and customer service is a flawed premise just because they fill ships. Simple put, they are worth less money now than they were 3 years ago and there's various reasons for that, and almost all of them will boil down to bad business decisions, whether it be China like you described or a possible retention/high marketing cost problem. More than likely there are multiple factors. But there's literally nothing to suggest it's unfair to question their business practices, and it's clear numerous things have gone wrong for them and other cruise lines have grown their businesses better.

 

*pounds head against the wall*

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Yes, but when a company is worth less than they were 3 years ago, you generally accept that things haven't gone great for them and bad decisions/execution took place in the companies semi-recent past. And being "not far from" your market cap from 3 years ago isn't any kind of achievement.

 

100% wrong. It CAN be an indicator that something is gone, but not when a company makes a significant reinvestment in their business (in the form of secured debt) in order to capture larger market share in the future. You are cherry picking NCLH's growth cycle.

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Go back to 2013, NCLH net worth is almost 300% higher today than it was then (still means nothing to me, but whatever). Your time period is misleading because a simple review of their annual reports would show you why the net worth dropped in 2016; they took out a large amount of debt to finance their growth (it's right there in black and white). That debt is a direct hit to their net worth, but it is not because they are FAILING it is because they are GROWING. As my Dad always said . . . you have to spend a buck to make a buck.

 

That's completely ridiculous and if you know anything about stocks, you know that. You're literally explaining what would be considered a growth stock. A company that is actively investing and might be shedding some cash because of that but is expected to grow rapidly from that investment. If investors believed NCL's premise and potential growth, the stock would go up and the market cap would go up. What are you arguing? That a company can't make an investment in their future and have their stock go up? Absolute insanity. That's almost every tech company you're describing. You're just making stuff up because investors clearly didn't like and see the potential in the debt NCL took on (or whatever investments they made), or are weary of how successful their endeavors will be.

Edited by dfoxinator

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That's completely ridiculous and if you know anything about stocks, you know that. You're literally explaining what would be considered a growth stock. A company that is actively investing and might be shedding some cash because of that but is expected to grow rapidly from that investment. If investors believed NCL's premise and potential growth, the stock would go up and the market cap would go up. What are you arguing? That a company can't make an investment in their future and have their stock go up? Absolute insanity. That's almost every tech company you're describing. You're just making stuff up because investors clearly didn't like and see the potential in the debt NCL took on (or whatever investments they made), or are weary of how successful their endeavors will be.

 

Ummm, you know that "growth stocks" are securities whose SHARE PRICE is expected to grow at a significantly above-average rate. Net worth does not always move consistent with stock price (they do not correlate in the manner you suggest). For example, a company's net worth can go down while it's share price increases . . . like, oh I don't know . . . any time a company conducts are significant share buyback (net worth = assets - liabilities ... the calculation excludes shareholder equity).

 

I'm really done now. Had I realized you joined this month apparently only to complain about NCL I would have simply ignored you. I try to help out people here when I can (because I have received so much great information from so many great contributors on here), but lesson learned. Don't feed the trolls . . . they have insatiable appetites!

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Ummm, you know that "growth stocks" are securities whose SHARE PRICE is expected to grow at a significantly above-average rate. Net worth does not always move consistent with stock price (they do not correlate in the manner you suggest). For example, a company's net worth can go down while it's share price increases . . . like, oh I don't know . . . any time a company conducts are significant share buyback (net worth = assets - liabilities ... the calculation excludes shareholder equity).

 

Except that's not what happened in this case... NCL's share price went down as did their market cap because they are simply worth less as a company today than 3 years ago. You even admitted this yourself when you spoke about their China snafu.

 

And I'm sure you'll be back if someone else speaks negatively about the NCL stock.

 

I signed up to discuss this cruise with other people who were on it, and I expressed my opinion about the poor customer service that I thought NCL exhibited, and that opinion was shared by many here. Some people, like yourself, chose to take a negative attitude towards those who were unhappy instead of just understanding that people look for different things on cruises, and this one will have satisfied some people while leaving others wanting more. And none of those people have an uneducated opinion. I'm not sure why that's a concept some don't want to grasp here.

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The key to your response is "untrained eye."
You left out the word "my". The initial comment was about MY untrained eye.
And if your financial adviser simply said "don't buy" without asking further questions about your goals/strategy, you should consider firing him/her.
Thank you for the advice. Rest assured my adviser and I have had and continue to have extensive discussions about my goals and strategies, including my goal for buying NCL for which we developed a strategy.

 

Look, my point was simply filling ships is not an indicator of a good business as people on these boards have stated. I acknowledge that neither stock price nor anyone's buy/sell recommendation alone is a good indicator either. Hell, there are entire schools dedicated to teaching Business, we sure aren't going to define whether NCL is a running good business here.

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Wow arguing about obvisiouly two different opinions of NCL. Did any of you read my post of not having 911 available for a very sick 73 year old on the ship? Does that not concern you. Probably not if it did not happen to you. Let me tell you quite scary, and NCL will never be an option for me again. Now that is the service we did not get.

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You left out the word "my". The initial comment was about MY untrained eye. Thank you for the advice. Rest assured my adviser and I have had and continue to have extensive discussions about my goals and strategies, including my goal for buying NCL for which we developed a strategy.

 

Look, my point was simply filling ships is not an indicator of a good business as people on these boards have stated. I acknowledge that neither stock price nor anyone's buy/sell recommendation alone is a good indicator either. Hell, there are entire schools dedicated to teaching Business, we sure aren't going to define whether NCL is a running good business here.

 

Having had the benefit of a few hours sleep and re-reading your post, I was too harsh in my response to your post. I know you are not looking for it, but, for what it's worth, I offer my apologies.

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Wow arguing about obvisiouly two different opinions of NCL. Did any of you read my post of not having 911 available for a very sick 73 year old on the ship? Does that not concern you. Probably not if it did not happen to you. Let me tell you quite scary, and NCL will never be an option for me again. Now that is the service we did not get.

 

I do not think people are forgetting about your experience, it is just that there is not much positive we can add other than I'm sorry you went through that. If that had happened to me or my loved ones, in any situation cruise or otherwise, I probably would take my business elsewhere just like you.

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