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Potentially Michael?

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Weather watchers, what are your thoughts on the disturbance spinning that could become Michael? I have a western Caribbean cruise on October 21st. Hopeful whatever it is will be done by then.

 

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Well the chance of development has increased today to 60%. Strong downpours and winds are likely over Cozumel, Progresso, and the Yucatan. But the forecast on these things has often fluctuated from day to day so don't get excited about a named storm yet. Upper level winds are friendly to development now but there is some shear still. Interacting with the Yucatan is going to slow it down too.

 

Timing according to Dr. Jeff Masters blog: Could develop into a tropical depression early next week. Monday-Tuesday.

 

The biggest risk is that if it continues it could become Michael in the Gulf and threaten the gulf coast somewhere. This weather is an example of a "Central American Gyre" which is a weather system that crossed central america to include moisture and outflow over both the caribbean/atlantic and pacific sides. If you'd like to read about this here's the link: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Gulf-Mexico-Development-Possible-Next-Week-Updates-Sergio-Walaka-Kong-Rey-Leslie

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Well the chance of development has increased today to 60%. Strong downpours and winds are likely over Cozumel, Progresso, and the Yucatan. But the forecast on these things has often fluctuated from day to day so don't get excited about a named storm yet. Upper level winds are friendly to development now but there is some shear still. Interacting with the Yucatan is going to slow it down too.

 

Timing according to Dr. Jeff Masters blog: Could develop into a tropical depression early next week. Monday-Tuesday.

 

The biggest risk is that if it continues it could become Michael in the Gulf and threaten the gulf coast somewhere. This weather is an example of a "Central American Gyre" which is a weather system that crossed central america to include moisture and outflow over both the caribbean/atlantic and pacific sides. If you'd like to read about this here's the link: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Gulf-Mexico-Development-Possible-Next-Week-Updates-Sergio-Walaka-Kong-Rey-Leslie

 

Definitely following this thread closely. We are scheduled to depart Miami tomorrow for a western Caribbean itinerary, and while it doesn’t look like a threat to canceling the cruise as a whole, I imagine there will be some itinerary adjustments or possible a switch to an eastern Caribbean itinerary? Either way, a cruise with a different itinerary is better than no cruise at all!

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The news is bad again today. Now forecasting 80% chance of cyclone in 2 days, 90% in 5 days, and a slow northward movement. Two days and I think it will be right about next to Cozumel (Monday).

Northward means the gulf coast needs to be on guard from Houston/Galveston to New Orleans to Gulfport/Biloxi MI to Mobile AL to Pensacola and Panama City FL. Models lean more eastward right now. I will be looking for expert analysis of the conditions through to the coast the next week and will summarize when I find anything.

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Expect to become tropical storm strength over Cozumel later today and get its name. Forecast now calling for it to make hurricane and aiming for the Florida Panhandle now.

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Weather watchers, what are your thoughts on the disturbance spinning that could become Michael? I have a western Caribbean cruise on October 21st. Hopeful whatever it is will be done by then.

 

By October 21st it should be long gone BUT those were in its path will be dealing with the destruction left behind ... expecially flooding.

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Waiting to board the getaway now! We are scheduled to sail between Cuba and Mexico tomorrow to make our schedule ports of call in belieze and hondouras on Tuesday and Wednesday, but if I was a betting man I would say we probably won’t be sailing straight in to what will likely be a named storm. Any thoughts PelicanBill?

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Waiting to board the getaway now! We are scheduled to sail between Cuba and Mexico tomorrow to make our schedule ports of call in belieze and hondouras on Tuesday and Wednesday, but if I was a betting man I would say we probably won’t be sailing straight in to what will likely be a named storm. Any thoughts PelicanBill?

 

Sunday afternoon update. Tropical Storm Michael is with us, approaching the south end of Cozumel now, but well offshore - so TS strength winds are not likely to hit the tourist areas of Cozumel, Riviera Maya or Cancun. It looks like depression level wind and of course heavy rain. See this diagram:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=14&av=201810716

 

 

As for Getway.. leaving from Miami today... I think you will steam ahead for tonight.. day at sea tomorrow... and then I think you may be delayed a little waiting for the storm to pass north and open up for safe passage behind it. Tomorrow morning Michael is still in the way a bit... if waves and wind aren't too bad you may plow ahead... or may wait a few hours for it to move a bit more north. So worst case is a late arrival to Roatan. Good luck we're pulling for you!

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Separate post for the coast: Please note forecast is expecting Category 2 landfall now. Conditions are good for strengthening. At risk areas at this point:

Panama City & Beach

All the remote barrier islands around Apalachicola National Forest esp. St. George Island

Tallahassee and the remote shore areas south

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Yep, Bill! You are so right!

Seems Michael is going to be stornger than first expected. :eek:

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We are scheduled fly DEN to MCO Wednesday 10/10 for a stop at Universal before driving down to FLL area Friday 10/12 to eventual board and sail Harmony out on Saturday 10/13.

 

Advice or thoughts on how the storm could impact our plans, if at all? What challenges should we anticipate? We have travel insurance on the cruise and I may be within a cancellation window for other adventures we have planned if I need to make adjustments. Thoughts?

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No change to Michael's path. Landfall Wednesday and they are now saying it could make Category 3 (major) because it has slowed a little. Any word on what the Getaway is doing?

 

Shell - there may be outflow rain further south in Florida but it should be moving across Georgia and the Carolinas or further by the weekend.

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Mid day Monday: Adding that the track is the same, Panama City in the path of greatest impact, and models seem to average Category 3 (major) at landfall with experts saying there is a 30% chance of it being Category 4.

 

Will post any update I can tonight, but the forums go read-only Tuesday morning. For focused charts of path and windfields I recommend

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

 

 

Remember that news sources and even weather sources tend to sensationalize their reporting. Look for the facts - this is what I usually try to do here. If the news says "Hurricane threatens gulf coast from New Orleans to Tampa" go look at the forecast to see what is really threatened - and remember hurricane force winds exist on for a small diameter. Worst impact is on the right side of the eye. Tropical Storm force winds can extend much further - but loss of life is rare in TS winds. Flooding and storm surge are the major threat. Look for storm surge and rainfall charts to understand what areas are really hurt. Lots of barrier islands here... let's hope people leave.

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Any effect on the Keys?

 

Very little - outer bands might send some rain there and to the west coast of Florida.

 

Otherwise, very little change. Same path forecast, Category 3 seems very likely at landfall.

 

Tropical Storm strength across Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and then out into the Atlantic by Friday! Hard to be sure where, but approx. the NC/VA line - so Outer Banks to Virginia Beach and Norfolk to be under Tropical Storm conditions as well. A lot of the interior of these states will see some major wind and power outages. The only good thing is it will move fast.

 

See you on the other side of the new forums.

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On 10/9/2018 at 6:39 AM, PelicanBill said:

Any effect on the Keys?



Very little - outer bands might send some rain there and to the west coast of Florida.

Otherwise, very little change. Same path forecast, Category 3 seems very likely at landfall.

Tropical Storm strength across Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and then out into the Atlantic by Friday! Hard to be sure where, but approx. the NC/VA line - so Outer Banks to Virginia Beach and Norfolk to be under Tropical Storm conditions as well. A lot of the interior of these states will see some major wind and power outages. The only good thing is it will move fast.

See you on the other side of the new forums.

Well, we're on the other side of the threads, Bill.  Michael turned out to be a horrible monster.  Even here in Charlotte it was worse than Florence.  Only "good" thing is it was a fast mover.

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Welcome back.  Tragic conclusion as Michael got worse and worse every report until landfall... and pounded the Carolinas a second time.  You are right - only help was the fast move.

 

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On 4/17/2019 at 4:20 AM, MicCanberra said:

I have been Michael my whole life and have never really been destructive.

Funny you should post in this thread this week... as weather experts just completed analysis and decided to upgrade Michael after the fact to Category 5 at landfall.

 

I'm afraid you just became MORE destructive!

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On ‎4‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 10:36 PM, PelicanBill said:

Funny you should post in this thread this week... as weather experts just completed analysis and decided to upgrade Michael after the fact to Category 5 at landfall.

 

I'm afraid you just became MORE destructive!

I hope everyone survived without out too much damage to life or property, some things are even out of my control.

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