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CCL stock gets hit this morning on earnings news:


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14 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Just an anecdotal observation.  We have cruised quite a few CCL lines (HAL, Princess, Seabourn, Carnival, etc) as well as other lines.  In the past 3-5 years we have noticed all kinds of cut-backs on all the CCL lines that we have cruised (also on Celebrity which is owned by RCI).  While cut-backs certainly can reduce operating costs, it also can reduce passenger volume as folks look elsewhere for more satisfaction.  Trying experiments such as charging $10 for a 2nd entrée, downgrading the quality of products in alternative restaurants, eliminating production shows, etc. etc. do take a toll.  When we started having some issues with HAL cut-backs and Celebrity cut-backs we turned to other options (such as MSC's Yacht Club).   We currently have only one future HAL cruise booked (a 30 day voyage next year) out of our 6 currently booked  cruises.  And we have our doubts about that one HAL voyage (Yokohama to Vancouver) because of all the entertainment cut-backs on the line.  Do we want to be on a ship for 30 days with zero production shows, dark nights,  movies that masquerade as main shows, etc?  Honestly no!  But we do like cruising on HAL (5 Star Mariners) so have not YET cancelled that booking.  Our thinking is that HAL has time to make "adjustments" before that future cruise (next April) and we enjoy this line enough that we are willing to give them the time.  But as we have previously posted, it does appear that HAL has lost its way and senior management seems to have no clue as where they want to take this line...other then down some kind of drain :(.

 

And it is not just HAL. For example, Princess recently removed chairs from all their regular cabins.  Now, most Princess cabins apparently have a single chair (the one at the desk).  Since most cabins have at least two passengers one wonders how to folks are supposed to sit in a single small desk chair if they decide to enjoy room service breakfast..or simply want a place to sit other then on the bed.  And there are numerous other cut-back examples from the various mass market lines.  One of our friends, who until recently did over 100 days of cruising a year, has completely stopped cruising in favor of decent All-Inclusive resorts and other land trips.  They have literally been driven away from cruising by the cut-backs in overall quality.

 

Hank

The chair removal issue with Princess is what prompted us to ditch Princess. I consider it out and out contempt for their clientele. We have a TA booked with HAL next Spring, we'll see how that goes. While we are relative newcomers to cruising and enjoy it immensely we have an RV and enjoy traveling that way too. 
Lots of alternatives to cruising.

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24 minutes ago, TriumphGuy said:

The chair removal issue with Princess is what prompted us to ditch Princess. I consider it out and out contempt for their clientele. We have a TA booked with HAL next Spring, we'll see how that goes. While we are relative newcomers to cruising and enjoy it immensely we have an RV and enjoy traveling that way too. 
Lots of alternatives to cruising.

Here is the thing!  Yes, Princess removed those chairs (which makes no sense) with little warning and no explanation.  But HAL stopped all their Production Shows, with little warning and no explanation.  Over the years HAL has replaced their excellent 4 piece classical groups (once known as the Rosario Strings) with duos of varying quality.  Excellet Filipino bands have been replaced with nothing or bands of much lower quality.  BB King Groups have been eliminated from several of their smaller vessels.  And then you have Celebrity where we have coined the term "death by a thousand cut-backs."  While Celebrity has yet to do anything as stupid as removing chairs, they have been gradually (for the past 3-4 years) been cutting back on numerous small items and the quality of their cuisine in the MDR and Lido.  Those booking Concierge and Aqua Class no longer find the handy little footstools on their balconies.  Those in Aqua, where they used to provide unlimited bottled water now are limited to a couple of small bottles for the entire cruise (even on longer cruises).  And prices on Celebrity alternative restaurants have continued to climb into the stratosphere while nothing in those restaurants has improved.

 

We have no clue as to what will be the next cut back on the mass market lines.  Like many long time mass market cruisers we have reacted by moving towards alternatives such as ultra luxury lines or some of the lines that are hard to define such as Oceania and Viking.   It seems obvious that senior management of the mass market lines are in the process of testing the price/quality elasticity of their products (i.e. how much can we increase prices and lower quality before it has a negative impact on the bottom line).   Come on folks.  Some of these lines are charging over $140 per passenger day for a drink package!  Are you kidding me?   On our last Celebrity cruise (3 weeks ago), DW and I spent less money (onboard) then on any cruise in memory.  We simply took advantage of our available perks (have not done this in many years) and vastly reduced our onboard consumption of drinks (for which we had to pay inflated prices).  During that cruise we met others who had the same reaction.  On many of these mass market lines there have been reductions in the number of Cruise Director's staff with previously free activities replaced by hyped-up Art Auctions (selling horribly overpriced glycee's), expensive BINGO, etc.  Art auctions used to be a major profit center for the cruise lines until passengers "wised up" and realized that much of it was a "con."   The lines backed-off on the art thing...but now it has come back with a vengeance.  The amount of precious public space allocated for these art companies (such as Park West) is huge, and they also take over other public venues during sea days....crowding out other activities or quiet space.   We finally threw up our hands, surrendered, and booked some cruise lines that have zero art auctions, zero ship photographers, and do not charge for drinks whether it be at a bar or our mini-bar.

 

Hank

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17 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

So, it looks like it closed down $4 (7.63%), so the pre-market trading was a little high...but this could have been a buying time for some.

Down again this morning - should open under 47

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1 hour ago, TriumphGuy said:

The chair removal issue with Princess is what prompted us to ditch Princess. I consider it out and out contempt for their clientele. We have a TA booked with HAL next Spring, we'll see how that goes. While we are relative newcomers to cruising and enjoy it immensely we have an RV and enjoy traveling that way too. 
Lots of alternatives to cruising.

Yes.....there are.... After some 30 years cruising   up to the Lux lines  like Regent,  things have " evolved"    Nothing is as it was no matter how much you spend.      I  hope  your  hopes will  be met...  but be prepared to discover  your princess  folks wearing HAL clothing...    In the mass market   ( Princess, MSC, RCI, HAL, Celeb.) group ist  more just a name change and same-o-same o.       You  can not expect much more as they drop fares and add  all sorts of carnival rides at sea to a new generation who wants that... bumper cars, Ice skating, thrill rides,

 

Couple that with  the mass assault on almost every port with ships of 3000-4000, 5000, even 6000  each and several in a port. so it dos not really matter what you are on......

Our decision is to only seek very select cruises  and to enjoy  way more land only  exploration.    Cruising  will become  very secondary to our enjoyment.         

 

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1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

Here is the thing!  Yes, Princess removed those chairs (which makes no sense) with little warning and no explanation.  But HAL stopped all their Production Shows, with little warning and no explanation.  Over the years HAL has replaced their excellent 4 piece classical groups (once known as the Rosario Strings) with duos of varying quality.  Excellet Filipino bands have been replaced with nothing or bands of much lower quality.  BB King Groups have been eliminated from several of their smaller vessels.  And then you have Celebrity where we have coined the term "death by a thousand cut-backs."  While Celebrity has yet to do anything as stupid as removing chairs, they have been gradually (for the past 3-4 years) been cutting back on numerous small items and the quality of their cuisine in the MDR and Lido.  Those booking Concierge and Aqua Class no longer find the handy little footstools on their balconies.  Those in Aqua, where they used to provide unlimited bottled water now are limited to a couple of small bottles for the entire cruise (even on longer cruises).  And prices on Celebrity alternative restaurants have continued to climb into the stratosphere while nothing in those restaurants has improved.

 

We have no clue as to what will be the next cut back on the mass market lines.  Like many long time mass market cruisers we have reacted by moving towards alternatives such as ultra luxury lines or some of the lines that are hard to define such as Oceania and Viking.   It seems obvious that senior management of the mass market lines are in the process of testing the price/quality elasticity of their products (i.e. how much can we increase prices and lower quality before it has a negative impact on the bottom line).   Come on folks.  Some of these lines are charging over $140 per passenger day for a drink package!  Are you kidding me?   On our last Celebrity cruise (3 weeks ago), DW and I spent less money (onboard) then on any cruise in memory.  We simply took advantage of our available perks (have not done this in many years) and vastly reduced our onboard consumption of drinks (for which we had to pay inflated prices).  During that cruise we met others who had the same reaction.  On many of these mass market lines there have been reductions in the number of Cruise Director's staff with previously free activities replaced by hyped-up Art Auctions (selling horribly overpriced glycee's), expensive BINGO, etc.  Art auctions used to be a major profit center for the cruise lines until passengers "wised up" and realized that much of it was a "con."   The lines backed-off on the art thing...but now it has come back with a vengeance.  The amount of precious public space allocated for these art companies (such as Park West) is huge, and they also take over other public venues during sea days....crowding out other activities or quiet space.   We finally threw up our hands, surrendered, and booked some cruise lines that have zero art auctions, zero ship photographers, and do not charge for drinks whether it be at a bar or our mini-bar.

 

Hank

WE figured that out 10 years ago and how much more enjoyable it was to be with  600-800 passengers rather than 3000+  But even so  things are changing with the Prem/Luxury lines.  Enjoy while you can

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2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Here is the thing!  Yes, Princess removed those chairs (which makes no sense) with little warning and no explanation.  But HAL stopped all their Production Shows, with little warning and no explanation.  Over the years HAL has replaced their excellent 4 piece classical groups (once known as the Rosario Strings) with duos of varying quality.  Excellet Filipino bands have been replaced with nothing or bands of much lower quality.  BB King Groups have been eliminated from several of their smaller vessels.  And then you have Celebrity where we have coined the term "death by a thousand cut-backs."  While Celebrity has yet to do anything as stupid as removing chairs, they have been gradually (for the past 3-4 years) been cutting back on numerous small items and the quality of their cuisine in the MDR and Lido.  Those booking Concierge and Aqua Class no longer find the handy little footstools on their balconies.  Those in Aqua, where they used to provide unlimited bottled water now are limited to a couple of small bottles for the entire cruise (even on longer cruises).  And prices on Celebrity alternative restaurants have continued to climb into the stratosphere while nothing in those restaurants has improved.

 

We have no clue as to what will be the next cut back on the mass market lines.  Like many long time mass market cruisers we have reacted by moving towards alternatives such as ultra luxury lines or some of the lines that are hard to define such as Oceania and Viking.   It seems obvious that senior management of the mass market lines are in the process of testing the price/quality elasticity of their products (i.e. how much can we increase prices and lower quality before it has a negative impact on the bottom line).   Come on folks.  Some of these lines are charging over $140 per passenger day for a drink package!  Are you kidding me?   On our last Celebrity cruise (3 weeks ago), DW and I spent less money (onboard) then on any cruise in memory.  We simply took advantage of our available perks (have not done this in many years) and vastly reduced our onboard consumption of drinks (for which we had to pay inflated prices).  During that cruise we met others who had the same reaction.  On many of these mass market lines there have been reductions in the number of Cruise Director's staff with previously free activities replaced by hyped-up Art Auctions (selling horribly overpriced glycee's), expensive BINGO, etc.  Art auctions used to be a major profit center for the cruise lines until passengers "wised up" and realized that much of it was a "con."   The lines backed-off on the art thing...but now it has come back with a vengeance.  The amount of precious public space allocated for these art companies (such as Park West) is huge, and they also take over other public venues during sea days....crowding out other activities or quiet space.   We finally threw up our hands, surrendered, and booked some cruise lines that have zero art auctions, zero ship photographers, and do not charge for drinks whether it be at a bar or our mini-bar.

 

Hank

Not to highjack the thread but I would be curious on your take on Oceania and Viking.

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On 6/20/2019 at 12:51 PM, lizinvan said:

How many cruises do you think you took to break even?:).  Does Carnival stock work for all their companies?  Same for RCCL for Celebrity etc?  Brokers don’t seem to like cruise stocks but know you can buy yourself

Break even? Thats a pretty subjective question and really only comes out when you sell the stock and then have your realized gain/loss. I first bought the stocks over 15 years ago and the price today is much higher than what I paid, even with the recent decline of the past 2 days, still way ahead. 

 

Pretty much. RCL seems to be a bit more restrictive than CCL (we own both). The RCL Stock OBC is sometimes not available depending on the what the fare bucket your cruise came out of. But CCL is pretty much all their lines, based on location and length of Cruise. 

 

As for brokers, they should be working for you. Offering advice is one thing, but if I tell them to buy/sell xxx shares of a stock, I expected them to execute the order. 

Edited by drowelf
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Thanks for the info. Seems if we use all lines and had to choose one CCL may be the best from your example.  Don’t know anyone who might compare the NCL experience.

 

Thanks again for your insight.

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5 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Not to highjack the thread but I would be curious on your take on Oceania and Viking.

We have no take because we have yet to cruise on either line.  DW and I have been on 15 lines (#16 is coming up in July) but both Oceania and Viking just remain on our future bucket list.  Some very close relatives, who are very demanding, have switched much of their allegiance from Princess to Viking.  They were actually on the ill-fated Viking Sky cruise (and were evacuated by helicopter in the middle of the night) but still have nothing but praise for Viking.  Another couple that we respect (an aging gay male couple with amazing travel/cruise experience have mixed emotions about the line.   My only remaining question about Viking is whether it represents good value for their usual high prices.

 

As to Oceania, a few friends and DW's ex have convinced us that this line would be a good match for us.  But my problem with "O" has been that we question their price-value.  Our upcoming Seabourn cruise actually cost us about the same price as an "O" cruise and we will have a nicer cabin on Seabourn then we would get on one of "O"s "R' class ships.  But when I find the right deal and price on "O" we will book!

 

I will be honest that DW and I are true cruise lovers (with far more than 1000 days on various cruises) who are really floundering around trying to find lines that meet our current standards.  For the past 5 years it has been a constant struggle (we cruise 70 - 100 days a year) as we cruise on a mix of familiar lines and lines/ships that represent a new experience.  The only positive shocker happened on MSC when we were pleasantly "blown away" by our Yacht Club experience.  Was it perfect?  No way.  But in terms of quality/value it exceeded all the other lines we have experienced in the past decade. Unlike many fellow cruisers, our "loyalty" to a line is only as good as our last cruise on that line.  The "loyalty" perks we get on any lines does not have any impact on our booking decisions.  We have long been amazed that some folks will make a decision based on a few free drinks or a "priority" tender ride.  On HAL there are folks who truly covet their various Medallions and Pins...and make sure everyone knows this fact.  For us, all those knick knacks are something to be tossed in the back of a bottom storage drawer if we even bother to bring them home :).  Give me a quality product for a fair price and I am yours :).

 

Hank 

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July:  I have two Alaskan cruises booked with one on HAL and one on Princess.  December/January, I have two Caribbean cruises booked with one on HAL and one on MSC in their Yacht Club.

 

After my Winter, 2018/2019 experiences on Nieuw Statendam and Royal Princess which were very mixed as to satisfaction on both, as a "Cruise Critic", I will be enjoying my cruises, but I will also be looking at these experiences through an experienced cruiser's lens.

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49 minutes ago, GenghisQuan said:

Current close at 46.63. Any bets as to whether it'll continue sinking?

The old rule is "buy on the third day" after bad earnings news, so we could see more downward price action Monday morning IMO.  I bought more today at $46.75 (obviously not paying attention to the rule), so I think we are close to a bottom.  Thursday we had a nice rebound after a terrible open, so I though we were out of the woods, but then, as usual several analysts came out before the bell with stock downgrades and down we went!

 

I guess time will tell........

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37 minutes ago, VennDiagram said:

 

I'm counting on it sinking a bit more 😉 

 

What goes down usually will eventually go up.  Call me naive, but as a long time shareholder of Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean International, I have experienced deep drops in the price of their stock as well as the recovery of their prices.  The most spectacular difference has been Royal Caribbean.  That difference has always made me wonder why the difference between RCI and CCL. 

 

NCL?  As I read their financial reports, there is too much debt.

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Just now, rkacruiser said:

I have experienced deep drops in the price of their stock as well as the recovery of their prices

 

I am in Canada, so trying to explain "this" vs "that" for what I want to do isn't worth the pixel-usage 😉

I want to realize some  profit AND maintain ownership of CCL.  So if it drops, I will buy from one account, and maintain what I already own in another account, then sell from that "another" account when it improves.  Long-term thinking, I suspect.  Maybe optimistic thinking; I guess we'll see on that 😉

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4 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

What goes down usually will eventually go up.  Call me naive, but as a long time shareholder of Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean International, I have experienced deep drops in the price of their stock as well as the recovery of their prices.  The most spectacular difference has been Royal Caribbean.  That difference has always made me wonder why the difference between RCI and CCL. 

 

NCL?  As I read their financial reports, there is too much debt.

For one thing, the beta (a measure of stock volatility) is lowest on CCL (1.52) vs 1.72 at RCL and 2.02 on NCL.  Dividends are another factor, with CCL being over 4% now, RCL a bit over 2% and Zero at NCL,.  Not saying which is the better buy, just that CCL stock price generally has less "movement" - one way or the other. 

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1 minute ago, DaveOKC said:

Not saying which is the better buy, just that CCL stock price generally has less "movement" - one way or the other. 

 

Absolutely proper observation!  When the economy went into the tank in the late 2008 and the cruise line prices sank, I kept my position in CCL and sold my RCI stock.  As the situation began to improve, I increased my original holdings of RCI at just above its bottom.  CCL, of course, had improved, but, stupidly, did not buy more then.  Those shares of RCI have significantly "moved" positively.  My original CCL holdings have also done OK, but not to the same extent.  That difference has puzzled me for some time.

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7 hours ago, Hlitner said:

We have no take because we have yet to cruise on either line.  DW and I have been on 15 lines (#16 is coming up in July) but both Oceania and Viking just remain on our future bucket list.  Some very close relatives, who are very demanding, have switched much of their allegiance from Princess to Viking.  They were actually on the ill-fated Viking Sky cruise (and were evacuated by helicopter in the middle of the night) but still have nothing but praise for Viking.  Another couple that we respect (an aging gay male couple with amazing travel/cruise experience have mixed emotions about the line.   My only remaining question about Viking is whether it represents good value for their usual high prices.

 

As to Oceania, a few friends and DW's ex have convinced us that this line would be a good match for us.  But my problem with "O" has been that we question their price-value.  Our upcoming Seabourn cruise actually cost us about the same price as an "O" cruise and we will have a nicer cabin on Seabourn then we would get on one of "O"s "R' class ships.  But when I find the right deal and price on "O" we will book!

 

I will be honest that DW and I are true cruise lovers (with far more than 1000 days on various cruises) who are really floundering around trying to find lines that meet our current standards.  For the past 5 years it has been a constant struggle (we cruise 70 - 100 days a year) as we cruise on a mix of familiar lines and lines/ships that represent a new experience.  The only positive shocker happened on MSC when we were pleasantly "blown away" by our Yacht Club experience.  Was it perfect?  No way.  But in terms of quality/value it exceeded all the other lines we have experienced in the past decade. Unlike many fellow cruisers, our "loyalty" to a line is only as good as our last cruise on that line.  The "loyalty" perks we get on any lines does not have any impact on our booking decisions.  We have long been amazed that some folks will make a decision based on a few free drinks or a "priority" tender ride.  On HAL there are folks who truly covet their various Medallions and Pins...and make sure everyone knows this fact.  For us, all those knick knacks are something to be tossed in the back of a bottom storage drawer if we even bother to bring them home :).  Give me a quality product for a fair price and I am yours :).

 

Hank 

 

Weird, I posted a reply but it went into the vapors of the net.

 

Thanks for the reply.  We too are surprised by how much some seem to love their medallions and Mariner pins.  We have seen people wearing them at embarkation.

 

We have not been on Viking or Oceania either, the price increase is what bogs us down.  We are simple cruisers, usually in an inside cabin so something like Viking is a big price jump.  We have been choosing HAL due to itineraries, friends on board and value.  We cruise a lot, over 240 days in the past year but are starting to question if we are with the right line or even if cruising is the best form of traveling for us.

 

Surprised by your MSC comments.  I have always thought of then a Carnival for mature travelers.

 

Thanks again.

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On 6/20/2019 at 6:55 AM, DaveOKC said:

One June 20, 2019, this news hit the market.  Interesting read of all the details (not provided here), so you might want to check it out for yourself.

 

"June 20 (Reuters) - Carnival Corp cut its profit forecast for the year on Thursday due to the Trump administration's sudden ban on cruises to Cuba and higher expenses related itinerary changes for one of its ships."

 

a) Effect of the Cuba ban is several cents a share. Many people booked those cruises specifically because of the Cuba stop(s). Cancellations are being allowed with full refunds and a future cruise credit given even if past final payment time. Also, many of the cruises with a stop in Cuba were shorter than seven days and there is not a big demand for those shorter cruises without Cuba on the itinerary.

 

b) The propulsion problem with one of their newest Carnival ships is costing about eight cents a share. Several voyages are cancelled with full refunds and future cruise credits also given. Two voyages had an extra day added to them at no cost to passengers including daily gratuities and any beverage or internet package that had been purchased. Also, being a very new ship the pricing is higher than normal and the operating cost is lower, so profit lost by the outage is more than if an older ship had the same problem.

 

c) The Corporation has 18 ships in Alaska this season and Alaska continues to be a "high-yielding" market, but currently pricing is lower than the pricing of last year. Also, although passenger count of the cruise ship is higher, participation on the pre- or post-cruise land extensions cannot go up because the infrastructure is not there to accommodate such growth.

 

d) Although bookings and pricing are up for the North American brands, they are down for the European brands. So far Brexit is not a negative factor,

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4 hours ago, caribill said:

 

a) Effect of the Cuba ban is several cents a share. Many people booked those cruises specifically because of the Cuba stop(s). Cancellations are being allowed with full refunds and a future cruise credit given even if past final payment time. Also, many of the cruises with a stop in Cuba were shorter than seven days and there is not a big demand for those shorter cruises without Cuba on the itinerary.

 

b) The propulsion problem with one of their newest Carnival ships is costing about eight cents a share. Several voyages are cancelled with full refunds and future cruise credits also given. Two voyages had an extra day added to them at no cost to passengers including daily gratuities and any beverage or internet package that had been purchased. Also, being a very new ship the pricing is higher than normal and the operating cost is lower, so profit lost by the outage is more than if an older ship had the same problem.

 

c) The Corporation has 18 ships in Alaska this season and Alaska continues to be a "high-yielding" market, but currently pricing is lower than the pricing of last year. Also, although passenger count of the cruise ship is higher, participation on the pre- or post-cruise land extensions cannot go up because the infrastructure is not there to accommodate such growth.

 

d) Although bookings and pricing are up for the North American brands, they are down for the European brands. So far Brexit is not a negative factor,

So it seems the latest court case with the negative publicity, $20 million in fines, and the threat of future much larger fines for noncompliance really did not factor into the drop.

 

The Cuba ban seems to be the major problem if I am reading your post correctly.

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12 hours ago, spookyfudge said:

Looks like for those who want to buy 100 shares, this is the time. Also did you see the deep discounts on Europe in the fall, their bookings are off.

CCL mentioned this in their conference call on Thursday - that Europe bookings are weak right now.

 

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5 hours ago, ontheweb said:

So it seems the latest court case with the negative publicity, $20 million in fines, and the threat of future much larger fines for noncompliance really did not factor into the drop.

 

The Cuba ban seems to be the major problem if I am reading your post correctly.

 

The Carnival Vista propulsion problem had a bigger effect. But that is something which is not going to be a problem in the future..

 

But I think the market reacts to what can affect future earnings, and that is lower bookings and pricing on CCL Corp European brands.

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