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PelicanBill

Gulf Development - Barry Likely

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We're seeing a very unusual pattern developing.  A Low pressure system over Georgia is expected to move south/southwest over the Florida Panhandle and is being given an 80% chance to become a tropical depression later in the week.  If it becomes a tropical storm it will be Barry.

 

Possible effects on cruises arriving/departing New Orleans and Tampa this weekend.

 

image.png.f1b8ba9fc484e8b8ce8b3d2642988d89.png

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Watching closely here.  Seems like the system over Tampa now is moving SSE. So depends on when the low in GA connects.  Several towns in No. FL are opening up sandbag stations in advance of potential flooding from rain. 

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3 hours ago, natalie_healyoursoul said:

Soooo, if I am leaving out of Tampa on Thursday, returning Monday, what are the chances this will affect us? 😯

Hard to say since there is little history for this kind of thing.  Where do you go first... Tampa is well south and Thursday is early so I am hopeful you will just have rain perhaps. But you may be running south as quick as you can.

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The weather system is perched on the coast today and is expected to emerge over water by the end of the day.  Tropical formation is 50% chance over 2 days, and 80% chance over 5 days.

 

The anticipated direction has shifted slightly westward, away from areas such as Tampa and more toward Mobile and New Orleans.  Nobody is predicting a significant storm in terms of wind and storm surge but rain will be significant.  Here is a graphic on rainfall potential. Note the center of that is 10 inches potential rain!

Precipitation forecast

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Bummer... I have plans to fly out of Houston on Saturday for a cruise departing Fort Lauderdale on Sunday. Hoping to dodge all the bad weather, but it's looking trickier by the day.

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We are supposed to leave out on Glory Saturday 7/14. So if NOLA is expecting 10” of rain, could that affect the ship getting into port for us to board?

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14 hours ago, amy16_ said:

We are supposed to leave out on Glory Saturday 7/14. So if NOLA is expecting 10” of rain, could that affect the ship getting into port for us to board?

Could.  At the best, it will be a wet sail away.  Visibility will be the main issue in heading down the River. 

 

 

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15 hours ago, lalyn1983 said:

Bummer... I have plans to fly out of Houston on Saturday for a cruise departing Fort Lauderdale on Sunday. Hoping to dodge all the bad weather, but it's looking trickier by the day.

 Latest track of models I saw this AM show it hitting La Coast, so Houston should be good.  It's rain.

And still a lot of uncertainty as to how well organized, if organized at all, any TD will be.

Leave early if you need to or can change.  Otherwise, you've got some time.

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Well this isn't great news.  There will be update at 8pm but I may not be able to post an update then.  So the above was from 4pm.

 

The forecast is calling for tropical storm Barry to exist tonight; and Hurricane Barry Friday. It is forecast to go inland and up central/west Louisiana.  Extensive rainfall will affect eastern Lousiana and eastern Texas and is ALREADY causing flooding in low lying areas of New Orleans.

 

I would expect possible changes to the arrival and departure of the Glory on SUNDAY (not Saturday) 7/14. GLory would need to be at the mouth of the Mississippi Saturday night. That seems too close too soon.  My early guess:  one day delay arriving and departing.  Flooding of the area could cause road closures or even close the port longer so please stay in contact with your cruise line especially if you are flying in.

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8pm update from NOAA/NHC is in.  Also info from other sources.

 

No change to path and strength forecast.  Not a tropical storm yet, and will strengthen slowly so may not get named until later tomorrow now. But still forecast to be a hurricane at landfall.

 

Flooding in New Orleans is getting a LOT of attention now. The Mississippi River is already 10" above typical for this time of year and water levels are predicted to rise to the highest levels in 70 years... and to the top of the levees.  The forecast is to reach 20 feet at 1pm Saturday which is 3 feet above flood stage.

 

I think that raises my concerns about ability of Carnival Glory to navigate safely and the port could be inoperable. The water is not draining adequately from the French Quarter already.

 

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I read that the Valor is being redirected to Mobile tomorrow instead of NOLA. Wonder if Glory will sail from Mobile on Sunday?

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17 hours ago, amy16_ said:

I read that the Valor is being redirected to Mobile tomorrow instead of NOLA. Wonder if Glory will sail from Mobile on Sunday?

oh!  do quote sources if you find such info please.  I did not see Valor in the port schedule for NOLA.  What day was it supposed to be there?  I would think Carnival would make this call already to get flight changes going.

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16 minutes ago, Cruise Critic Chris said:

We're watching and updating! 

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/4251/

 

Thanks Chris!  The article describes what Carnival has done to shift Valor to Mobile today with bus transportation from New Orleans. Great!  Now this is a 4 day cruise returning Monday.  Mississippi River flood stage is presently predicted to return to a level 17' or less only as of Sunday to Monday.  So stay tuned to what happens with Glory Sunday (which we still have no word about.)  I think a lot depends on the storm track and just how much rain falls on New Orleans and the flood stage reached by the river, and how well levees hold.

 

The storm track was adjust a little east today. That's not great news for New Orleans (but west would be bad for Houston.)  I dug a little bit and found that the models are still quite divergent for the path and NOAA has chosen a path slightly west of the "convergence" path shown by the models.  This means that the path does not have a high confidence right now. It could end up well further east OR west of the track you see on the forecast now.  

 

Important to check each day on this... remember updates comes out every 3 hours now with primary updates at 5/11 am/pm EDT, 4/10 am/pm CDT.  Hang in there Carnival cruises and enjoy Valor cruisers, glad you are getting out on time!

 

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Barry's 5pm update is in.  No longer forecast to be Hurricane 1 strength at landfall - remains tropical storm.

 

Even better, rainfall predictions have been reduced especially in the interior, upstream Mississippi River area.  But there will still be too much water.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

11am update Friday:  Forecast is back to hurricane 1 strength at landfall, and shifted back very slightly west again.  Landfall at 7am CDT/8am EDT Saturday morning.  Airport travel difficult; long lines and fights are being cancelled now.  Port is closed.  No news on next 2 cruise ship visits for Sunday and Monday, however, port operations has already said cargo operations will not resume until Monday.

 

Water level at the New Orleans gauge of the Mississippi River has reach 17' or start of flood stage and is rising.  Rain forecast off and on all day today and Saturday.

 

I saw a national news report that talked about the threat of storm surge in New Orleans.  This is sensational reporting.  There is no forecast for storm surge in New Orleans.  The closest is the SW corner of Lake Pontchartrain, well away from New Orleans.

 

New Orleans IS within a zone of 50% flash flooding risk.

Edited by PelicanBill

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Also, I will be monitoring travels and AIS status of Glory and Valor the next 3 days.  This includes any destination change report the ship files if done while the ship is in reporting range (usually 50-100 miles or so from land).  Will report any changes here.

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Wow. It is a good thing this storm does not have another day or two to organize. The circulation is getting well defined and it is LARGE.

 

Barry.PNG

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5pm EDT update:  landfall coming in 12-24 hours (they don't want to be precise!)  and forecast back down below hurricane strength, although JUST under at 70 mph. The center of the path goes right over Lafayette, still well west of New Orleans and even Baton Rouge.

 

Rainfall and flood levels continue to be the main concern for New Orleans and other areas.  But Lafayette will get serious wind too.

 

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Cruise Ship Update. Reported at Cruzely.com, who also has been saying Carnival Glory has to  make a change, Carnival has issued a statement:

 

Carnival recently issued the following travel alert:

Our Fleet Operations Center in Miami is actively monitoring Tropical Storm Barry, located off the Gulf Coast. Port of New Orleans and Port of Mobile are now closed to maritime traffic.

As the safety of our guests and crew is our number one priority, we will continue to keep an eye on the storm and provide you with timely updates as more information becomes available.

In the meantime, please opt-in for text alerts by texting the codes below to CRUISE (278473):

Port of New Orleans
Carnival Glory – 07/14/19 – CCL2
Carnival Valor – 07/15/19 – CCL4

Port of Mobile
Carnival Fantasy – 07/13/19 – CCL3

We will post another update today by 8:00 PM (ET).

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Good news. The storm track shifted slightly west as of the 5am update. The storm surge is only a couple feet. That slows water being drained into the Mississippi. The Mississippi River is now predicted to crest at 17 feet which is only slightly higher than where it is now.

 

Cross your fingers, and maybe they will reopen the port in time for Glory to return if things stay good—- but that has to be determined by about 6pm today for Glory to enter the mouth of the river!

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Well the 11am update raised the strength to category 1 hurricane but it has been on the borderline for some time so it's not a significant change. It is now crossing to land and the strength is falling back down through the tropical storm wind range.

 

The port of Mobile is also closed and Carnival Fantasy was supposed to be in today and has been delayed, and it is waiting offshore for the port to reopen.

 

Carnival Glory in on track for arrival at the pilot station at the mouth of the Mississippi but Carnival has made statements they expect it to be delayed.  The airport is also practically closed, with ten airlines canceling all flights to New Orleans today. So many people expecting to arrive a day early on flights cannot arrive.

 

Flood levels are still on the lower end of the range of concern but some areas are seeing flooding and more will.  

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Here's a story about how national media hype scares people with false reporting.

 

https://www.theadvocate.com/gambit/new_orleans/news/the_latest/article_224f972e-a4ed-11e9-a548-7b94855f4eee.html 

 

It reports how the Washington Post had this headline:

"Anxiety grips New Orleans as residents flee city, brace for heavy rain and hurricane-force winds."

 

That's awful.  Residents are not fleeing, and it gave incorrect information about evacuations.  At no time were hurricane force winds expected in New Orleans! 

 

 

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