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PelicanBill

Atlantic - Chantal, Bahamas Disturbance, Pacific Storm coming

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The disturbance off the coast of North Carolina amazingly bloomed into tropical storm Chantal overnight.  What's more amazing is that we are only at "C" in names at this point in the year.  In fact, Chantal spoils some chatter that we were looking at the first August in 22 years that might not have a named storm.

 

A disturbance over the Bahamas is going to move closer to Florida and wrap up tight to the coast.  It only has a 20% chance of development for now.  Nothing coming off the coast of Africa... I saw an analysis that dry air with sand from the desert is suppressing tropical waves from forming.

 

In the Pacific, we have a cyclone expected to form very soon a few hundred miles off the coast of Mexico.  No danger to land in the forecast, except the four Revillagigedo islands.

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11 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

The disturbance off the coast of North Carolina amazingly bloomed into tropical storm Chantal overnight.  What's more amazing is that we are only at "C" in names at this point in the year.  In fact, Chantal spoils some chatter that we were looking at the first August in 22 years that might not have a named storm.

 

A disturbance over the Bahamas is going to move closer to Florida and wrap up tight to the coast.  It only has a 20% chance of development for now.  Nothing coming off the coast of Africa... I saw an analysis that dry air with sand from the desert is suppressing tropical waves from forming.

 

In the Pacific, we have a cyclone expected to form very soon a few hundred miles off the coast of Mexico.  No danger to land in the forecast, except the four Revillagigedo islands.

 

Thank you for the info!   I have 11 days until I sail out of Port Canaveral on Harmony of the Seas.  Ive been watching the NOAA hurricane tracker every day.  Im hoping the disturbance is gone soon and nothing comes from Africa!  

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Posted (edited)

Same here! We have been keeping an eye because we are leaving this Sunday to Bermuda. At least 1 development, coming in early next week.  

Edited by elron

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So here's the story on Invest 98.  As you can see there is a lot going on around Florida for at least 2 days.  At 2-4 days it is expected to head up the east coast offshore as you can see. So This weekend could have some issues for Miami, Port Everglades, even Tampa.  But strength is very hard to determine in that time. It could be nothing but it could cause delays.

 

Then we have possible interference Sunday-Monday-Tuesday offshore of Port Canaveral, Jacksonville, and Tuesday-Wednesday possible interference in NYC-Bermuda routes.  When this storm gets a name I will start a new thread for it.

 

98L_tracks_latest.png

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Invest 98 is doing what it was forecast to do. Gonna be stormy in Florida for the weekend. Then we should have a named storm heading. Up the Atlantic seaboard but offshore. 

 

And we we have a second disturbance now with 70% chance to be a named storm heading toward the leeward islands. Let’s hope it stays weak but it’s going to likely disturb some cruise plans during the week. 

 

I will study models and the 11am NHC update and post more this afternoon. As always, a new thread starts for any storm when it gets a name.

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Thanks, Bill for all you do.  Someone posted about this newest Caribbean development on the CC Ask A Cruise Question board.  We are still 4 weeks from our Southern Caribbean trip but wanted to keep up on any storm damage that might occur before then.

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