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TS/Hurricane brewing in the Caribbean

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for those of us departing this weekend let's just hope it sways to the East off of Florida.  We have sailed many times in Sept and there have been active storms to watch but this is the first time its affecting the port for us...stressful as we are flying in to MCO on Sat and departing Sunday 😱😱😱

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Supposed to sail on 4 day Bahamas Cruise on Norwegian Sun on Thursday 8/29. Not looking too promising on seeing Coco Cay on Saturday as planned (I love snorkeling on Coco Cay).  Haven't received any info on here or form NCL. Anyone have any thoughts on alternative routes for a 4 day cruise?

 

 

 

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According to the 11 am update from NOAA, Nassau will get Tropical Storm winds as early as Friday 8 am which is literally the date and time NCL Sun is supposed to dock in Nassau. Why have they not rerouted or cancelled the cruise yet? 

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7 minutes ago, cotacode said:

Supposed to sail on 4 day Bahamas Cruise on Norwegian Sun on Thursday 8/29. Not looking too promising on seeing Coco Cay on Saturday as planned (I love snorkeling on Coco Cay).  Haven't received any info on here or form NCL. Anyone have any thoughts on alternative routes for a 4 day cruise?

 

 

 

we're on this cruise as well! Have you had a chance to reach them out ?

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I am on the Mariner leaving friday.  RC told me they are watching the storm and will reach out to me with any changes.  Basically blown off.  

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19 minutes ago, Cruiselover800 said:

I am on the Mariner leaving friday.  RC told me they are watching the storm and will reach out to me with any changes.  Basically blown off.  

That's not them blowing you off - it's just too early to decide anything yet.  They could make a decision now and need to change it tomorrow - which wouldn't be too helpful, I'm sure.  These things are frustrating, but as a FL resident I'm sure you've seen before that more than two days out is just too hard to call.

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Agreed but when you have friends flying in from out of state there should be some kind of communication even if its we are monitoring the storm.  Do they come or not. Time will tell i guess 

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I know it's frustrating but they don't give guidance ahead of decisions because people will try to hang them with the extra costs that came with it. In these situations a lot of people are deciding to fly in early to avoid canceled flights. Others will be taking their chances to get on later flights if that happens and hope the ship is delayed long enough to reach it.  Many don't make it to the ship.  All the reasons to have trip insurance of course.

 

The phone people are not the first to know when a change happens.  You will find out by email, robocall, or a message in your online account. Watch them all.

 

The only exception is Royal Caribbean who is way more social media oriented.  VanFleet on Twitter is a great source of what they are doing and planning and announces changes as they are being sent out.

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My parents are supposed to leave on the empress of the seas but still no decision has been made..  

 

 

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 271512 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph

Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night
and Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the
next few days.

3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this
weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is
increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 14.2N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 15.2N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 16.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 17.9N  67.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.5N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 22.8N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 25.6N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 27.8N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

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Still too early to call for any sailings this weekend, but hopefully the wind distribution stays tight.  Right now TS force winds extend 45 miles out from the center, which is great news for many reasons.  Late tomorrow we'll know way more, as it's always tricky when there are potentially mountains ahead (in this case, on the Island of Hispanola).

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Apologies here is the 5 PM update

 

000
WTNT45 KNHC 272100
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Dorian's convective pattern has continued to fluctuate this
afternoon due to some interaction with the Windward and Leeward
Islands, but mainly due to intrusions of very dry mid-level air. A
10-mile wide eye feature developed in Martinique and Guadeloupe
radar data between 1500-1600 UTC and again between 1700-1800 UTC.
But this feature had been short-lived due to erosion of the
inner-core convection caused by dry air entrainment, although a
recent burst of deep convection has developed near and over the
low-level center. Dorian's upper-level outflow has continued to
expand and is very symmetrical. The initial intensity has been
maintained at 45 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level and SFMR
surface wind data.

Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon
fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or
300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new
forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous
one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement
on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning
northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near
or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After
clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move
cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving
mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and
how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low
and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp
Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track
is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and
brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours.
Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track
forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or
so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with
Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the
intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models
continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear
conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will
be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level
environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF
are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still
remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models,
which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The
official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these
two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models.
Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than-
normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4
and 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican
Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due to the potential for Dorian's interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to weaken the storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 15.3N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 16.2N  64.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 17.6N  66.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.1N  67.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 20.8N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 24.2N  72.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 26.7N  76.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 28.2N  80.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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The storm is forecast to be cat 2 at Florida landfall now and they say that is the low end of variance, so good chance to be stronger.  Note timing is slipping toward Monday now.

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Now I'm worried that the cruise will be cancelled all together since now it looks like Port Canaveral will be affected on Monday. Something is going on, my NCL app now shows a different cruise instead of the one I am supposed to board on Thursday. It's showing the 6 Day Rock and Race Cruise that started on 8/27 instead of the 4 Day Bahama one that starts on 8/29- but the Bahamas itinerary is still the same. 

 

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50 minutes ago, cotacode said:

Now I'm worried that the cruise will be cancelled all together since now it looks like Port Canaveral will be affected on Monday. Something is going on, my NCL app now shows a different cruise instead of the one I am supposed to board on Thursday. It's showing the 6 Day Rock and Race Cruise that started on 8/27 instead of the 4 Day Bahama one that starts on 8/29- but the Bahamas itinerary is still the same. 

 

Cruises always disappear the day before departure.

 

If you are leaving tomorrow I think you will sail... but you could be coming back late or returning to a different port.

 

It is now forecast to be category 3 at landfall to Florida. Location still in the Melbourne/Titusville Port Canaveral area.

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A nice reminder of how much forecasts can change in a short time.  Look at this loop and imagine being in Haiti or the Dominican Republic.  These changes were over just two days.  Cruising is definitely my passion, but I'm a big weather nerd as well.

 

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2 PM Advisory

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian
should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well
east of the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening
during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the
British Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

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CocoCay Closure & Tropical Storm Dorian Update
August 28, 2019 at 01:00 PM EST
We'll share our next updates at 06:00 PM EST.

Royal Caribbean's Facebook for Live UpdatesRoyal Caribbean's Twitter for Live UpdatesRoyal Caribbean's Instagram for Live Updates
 

 

We've been closely monitoring Tropical Storm Dorian, as it enters the Caribbean. Based on current projections of the storm’s path, we decided to close CocoCay on Wednesday, August 28th, 2019, and it will reopen on Wednesday, September 4th, 2019. Our CocoCay Team is made up of over 400 Bahamian locals on the island and it’s important that they evacuate to care for their families and secure their homes, as soon as possible. We evaluated all options, and this is the best decision, as there is no room for error when it comes to the safety and security of our guests, crew, and employees. This is our top priority.

As a result of the CocoCay closure, guests that pre-purchased Royal Caribbean International shore excursions for CocoCay will receive a refund to their onboard expense account in the form of a credit. If guests’ onboard spend does not reach this amount, the remaining balance will be refunded to their credit card on file.

The following sailings are impacted:

 

 

 

Navigator 8/26/19 Adjusted Sailing

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/26 Monday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
8/27 Tuesday Nassau, Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas
8/28 Wednesday CocoCay Nassau, Bahamas
8/29 Thursday Cruising Cruising
8/30 Friday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida

 

 

Mariner 8/26/19 Adjusted Sailing

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/26 Monday Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida
8/27 Tuesday Cruising Cruising
8/28 Wednesday Nassau, Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas
8/29 Thursday CocoCay Nassau, Bahamas
8/30 Friday Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida

 

 

Empress 8/24/19 Adjusted Sailing

We’ll sail to Cozumel, Mexico, as planned, but now, we’ll stay there overnight. We’ll depart Cozumel on Friday, August 30th, 2019, at 5 PM and then enjoy a sea day before making our way back to Miami.

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/24 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
8/25 Sunday Key West, Florida Key West, Florida
8/26 Monday Cruising Cruising
8/27 Tuesday Costa Maya, Mexico Costa Maya, Mexico
8/28 Wednesday Belize City, Belize Belize City, Belize
8/29 Thursday Cozumel, Mexico Cozumel, Mexico
8/30 Friday Cruising Cozumel, Mexico
8/31 Saturday CocoCay At Sea
9/01 Sunday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida

 

 

Symphony 8/24/19 Adjusted Sailing

We’ve replaced our visit to CocoCay with Nassau, Bahamas.

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/24 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
8/25 Sunday Cruising Cruising
8/26 Monday Cruising Cruising
8/27 Tuesday San Juan, Puerto Rico San Juan, Puerto Rico
8/28 Wednesday Labadee, Haiti Labadee, Haiti
8/29 Thursday Cruising Cruising
8/30 Friday CocoCay Nassau, Bahamas
8/31 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
 
 

NAVIGATOR 8/30/19, MARINER 8/30/19, HARMONY 9/1/19, HARMONY 8/25/19 & SYMPHONY 8/31/19

Currently, the two main weather models used for prediction (American & European) have the storm going different ways. So, we’re going to wait a bit more to evaluate the new data, which we’ll receive this afternoon. Then, we’ll confirm alternate ports and share your final itinerary changes with you by 3 PM on Thursday, August 29th, or sooner.

 

HARMONY 8/25/19 & SYMPHONY 8/31/19

While these itineraries were never sailing to CocoCay, these itineraries may be impacted by Tropical Storm Dorian, as we want to steer clear of any adverse weather.



We are sorry for this last-minute change and thank you for your understanding and cooperation during this unusual and unfortunate circumstance.

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On 8/27/2019 at 1:15 PM, gizmoneil said:

we're on this cruise as well! Have you had a chance to reach them out ?

We have a suite, I called the concierge for suites and the comment was - "There has been no change to the schedule and for now expect to go to the ports shown..."

 

I doubt we are headed to GCS and Freeport...

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37 minutes ago, TXranchgal said:

CocoCay Closure & Tropical Storm Dorian Update
August 28, 2019 at 01:00 PM EST
We'll share our next updates at 06:00 PM EST.

Royal Caribbean's Facebook for Live UpdatesRoyal Caribbean's Twitter for Live UpdatesRoyal Caribbean's Instagram for Live Updates
 

 

We've been closely monitoring Tropical Storm Dorian, as it enters the Caribbean. Based on current projections of the storm’s path, we decided to close CocoCay on Wednesday, August 28th, 2019, and it will reopen on Wednesday, September 4th, 2019. Our CocoCay Team is made up of over 400 Bahamian locals on the island and it’s important that they evacuate to care for their families and secure their homes, as soon as possible. We evaluated all options, and this is the best decision, as there is no room for error when it comes to the safety and security of our guests, crew, and employees. This is our top priority.

As a result of the CocoCay closure, guests that pre-purchased Royal Caribbean International shore excursions for CocoCay will receive a refund to their onboard expense account in the form of a credit. If guests’ onboard spend does not reach this amount, the remaining balance will be refunded to their credit card on file.

The following sailings are impacted:

 

 

 

Navigator 8/26/19 Adjusted Sailing

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/26 Monday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
8/27 Tuesday Nassau, Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas
8/28 Wednesday CocoCay Nassau, Bahamas
8/29 Thursday Cruising Cruising
8/30 Friday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida

 

 

Mariner 8/26/19 Adjusted Sailing

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/26 Monday Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida
8/27 Tuesday Cruising Cruising
8/28 Wednesday Nassau, Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas
8/29 Thursday CocoCay Nassau, Bahamas
8/30 Friday Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida Orlando (Port Canaveral), Florida

 

 

Empress 8/24/19 Adjusted Sailing

We’ll sail to Cozumel, Mexico, as planned, but now, we’ll stay there overnight. We’ll depart Cozumel on Friday, August 30th, 2019, at 5 PM and then enjoy a sea day before making our way back to Miami.

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/24 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
8/25 Sunday Key West, Florida Key West, Florida
8/26 Monday Cruising Cruising
8/27 Tuesday Costa Maya, Mexico Costa Maya, Mexico
8/28 Wednesday Belize City, Belize Belize City, Belize
8/29 Thursday Cozumel, Mexico Cozumel, Mexico
8/30 Friday Cruising Cozumel, Mexico
8/31 Saturday CocoCay At Sea
9/01 Sunday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida

 

 

Symphony 8/24/19 Adjusted Sailing

We’ve replaced our visit to CocoCay with Nassau, Bahamas.

DATES DAY PORT REVISED
PORT
8/24 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
8/25 Sunday Cruising Cruising
8/26 Monday Cruising Cruising
8/27 Tuesday San Juan, Puerto Rico San Juan, Puerto Rico
8/28 Wednesday Labadee, Haiti Labadee, Haiti
8/29 Thursday Cruising Cruising
8/30 Friday CocoCay Nassau, Bahamas
8/31 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida
 
 

NAVIGATOR 8/30/19, MARINER 8/30/19, HARMONY 9/1/19, HARMONY 8/25/19 & SYMPHONY 8/31/19

Currently, the two main weather models used for prediction (American & European) have the storm going different ways. So, we’re going to wait a bit more to evaluate the new data, which we’ll receive this afternoon. Then, we’ll confirm alternate ports and share your final itinerary changes with you by 3 PM on Thursday, August 29th, or sooner.

 

HARMONY 8/25/19 & SYMPHONY 8/31/19

While these itineraries were never sailing to CocoCay, these itineraries may be impacted by Tropical Storm Dorian, as we want to steer clear of any adverse weather.



We are sorry for this last-minute change and thank you for your understanding and cooperation during this unusual and unfortunate circumstance.

Wish NCL had an update like this for us 😞

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Just called NCL, they said for 8/29 NCL SUN

 

We expect everything be alright and at this moment we don't expect any changes to the itinerary smh!

I'm kinda scared... hopefully they're not being reckless putting all of us 2500 people in danger for their ability to make money. 

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3 minutes ago, gizmoneil said:

Just called NCL, they said for 8/29 NCL SUN

 

We expect everything be alright and at this moment we don't expect any changes to the itinerary smh!

I'm kinda scared... hopefully they're not being reckless putting all of us 2500 people in danger for their ability to make money. 

They've no incentive to put anyone in danger - there is no money in that.

Unfortunately all of the lines are in a wait and see mode, because some of the more reliable forecast models aren't in agreement about the storm's path.  Take a look at the RCI announcement and you'll note there is a lot they've yet to figure out, including the Port Canaveral sailing on Friday.  

Sure, lines could cancel things now - and then not only are they out revenue, but they might well have thousands of people angry that they cancelled for "no reason".  It's frustrating, I get it - but unfortunately weather forecasting isn't a perfect science and many are left waiting.  Maybe we'll get news with the major updates (5pm, 11pm, etc - every 7 hours), but it could be tomorrow's 3pm that makes the difference. 

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