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PelicanBill

Atlantic storm Dorian

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3 minutes ago, Host CJSKIDS said:

I'm getting updates from my friend's neighbor who works for NOAA here in Miami so I'll start posting what updates I get. 

 

Nerves are starting to fray.  Our local publix grocery stores empty water shelves. It's king tide so flooding will be awful.  If anyone remembers, I live on Brickell Ave and the bay came across Brickell and up to our building's stairs for Irma.

 

this should get interesting.

 

I worked in the Vitas building on Biscayne Blvd across from the Intercontinental Hotel.  People used to laugh when we say heading to higher ground meant the bridge over the Miami River.

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On ‎8‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 12:51 PM, PelicanBill said:

Try to stay calm as it's a long time away in hurricane days.  Let's see mid week. As you know they've already moved Allure to the west for this week.  The question will be what it does 9/1-9/2 when it *could* be heading into SE Florida.  We can't be sure, and we can't know it's strength by then. Too early.

Yes a LONG way out in Hurricane days as of 8/25.   Now it's 8/29 and it's still a mystery as to the ultimate destination of this storm. 
It seems like my area, Hilton Head, has had too many of these things lately.
My thoughts and prayers are with whoever ends up taking the brunt of it.

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2 hours ago, aloyisuscowboy said:

If you are in a red flood zone near tidal surge they will evacuate that hotel and move people out, sometimes even using school buses to take you to shelters at schools and make you leave your vehicles there to flood. I saw this happen with in fort Myers on the river two years ago.

I don't know about Florida law or Fort Myers on the west coast, but here in Ft. Lauderdale where I live on the beach, the evacuation for Irma was mandatory (as it always is where I live) but we always have the option to stay.  They do warn that once the evacuation is complete, they will not come in to help, which I understand.  My high rise (and all the others along the coastline) have been here through storms dating back to the 1970s and they're still standing.  That is not to say there wasn't any damage.  Our building's air conditioner blew right off the roof onto the beach.  Again though, residents can stay if they wish (usually a couple of dozen in each building remain).  I believe the hotels close up, but I'm not positive.

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22 minutes ago, Tutankhamen said:

NCL Sky 8/31.   It will be what it will be!    

YEP.  We can drink wherever we go!

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30 minutes ago, Host CJSKIDS said:

I'm getting updates from my friend's neighbor who works for NOAA here in Miami so I'll start posting what updates I get. 

 

Nerves are starting to fray.  Our local publix grocery stores empty water shelves. It's king tide so flooding will be awful.  If anyone remembers, I live on Brickell Ave and the bay came across Brickell and up to our building's stairs for Irma.

 

this should get interesting.

Stay safe.  Be prepared.  I am watching very closely too.  We have a home up the coast in Indian Harbour Beach, with the ocean across the street.  Like you said, "this should be interesting"

Stay safe and wishing your the best.

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4 hours ago, buckeyefrank said:

 

 

My wife and I are hoping for a diversion to Bermuda for the 9/2 sailing as well.  It certainly won't happen for us.  Looking at the last cone I saw, Princess Cay is out of the cone entirely.  I'm not convinced they can't hug the coast to get down there.  The issue as Raiderguy8 said, would be getting back.  

 

Remember Bermuda already has both Berths taken next week with regularity scheduled cruises. I am not sure they could accommodate another large ship..  small ships, very small can dock in Hamilton.

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Euro models show lots more chance or turning north here's hoping

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NHC update 5 PM, another nudge southward

 

On Friday, the ridge is forecast to begin building westward to the
north of the cyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause the
hurricane to turn west-northwestward.  A west-northwestward to
westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian
moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida
peninsula.  The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle,
with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS
bracketing the northern side.  There has also been an increase in
along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among
the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  This appears to be the result of
differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof
of the western portion of the ridge by day 5.  The new NHC track
forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but
has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 hours.  Users are reminded to not focus on
the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5
are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.

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30 minutes ago, snowbird1 said:

Remember Bermuda already has both Berths taken next week with regularity scheduled cruises. I am not sure they could accommodate another large ship..  small ships, very small can dock in Hamilton.

They can, possibly, accommodate one more ship by tendering but it's a difficult process.  Ships cannot use their own tenders and must use the Bermudian, a large ferry that can carry many people but only on about an hourly cycle.  Possible but DIFFICULT.

 

Roy

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The 5pm NHC updates are largely unchanged.  Very slight adjustment south and slight adjustment slower, landfall later on Monday now.  But it's getting so big it will "arrive" well before that, and arrive for many miles up and down the coast.  

 

There is still so much uncertainty.  Some forecasters are going out on a limb regarding turns to the north and recurve.  the NHC not looking that far out.  We are looking at a long monday to tuesday with the storm ashore and pounding a large area of land with wind and rain.

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@Pelican Bill you are a meteorologist, right?  It’s so great to have someone like you helping us make informed decisions!  Thank you!

 

 

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Just now, erdoran said:

@Pelican Bill you are a meteorologist, right?  It’s so great to have someone like you helping us make informed decisions!  Thank you!

 

 

Agreed!  I love the feedback and discussion.  I have a personal stake because of a Sunday Port Everglades sailing but keep holding onto hope that the window stays open for us be able to get board.  Otherwise it appears there could be a several day delay before it sails which would require altering my plans since I am not local to south FL.  Since I'm scheduled to arrive Saturday, I'm in limbo until we get some official word to make a decision.

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10 minutes ago, erdoran said:

@Pelican Bill you are a meteorologist, right?  It’s so great to have someone like you helping us make informed decisions!  Thank you!

 

 

Nope... I am an informed amateur who is really good at studying many sources of information and years of experience watching tropical weather.

 

Over the years I have watched how the media, including The Weather Channel, have turned to sensational reporting of tropical weather.  They throw in things designed to heighten fear and keep you glued to their coverage.  My specialty is to de-sensationalize the reporting and try to bring better understanding of the wide range of scenarios.  And correct things like "Hurricane has its sights set on New Orleans" when it in fact is NOT aimed at New Orleans.

 

6 minutes ago, AshleyDillo said:

Agreed!  I love the feedback and discussion.  I have a personal stake because of a Sunday Port Everglades sailing but keep holding onto hope that the window stays open for us be able to get board.  Otherwise it appears there could be a several day delay before it sails which would require altering my plans since I am not local to south FL.  Since I'm scheduled to arrive Saturday, I'm in limbo until we get some official word to make a decision.

Thank you.  Hoping for a northward change to clear Miami and FLL. This is hard for all those with Sunday sailings.

 

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4 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Nope... I am an informed amateur who is really good at studying many sources of information and years of experience watching tropical weather.

 

Over the years I have watched how the media, including The Weather Channel, have turned to sensational reporting of tropical weather.  They throw in things designed to heighten fear and keep you glued to their coverage.  My specialty is to de-sensationalize the reporting and try to bring better understanding of the wide range of scenarios.  And correct things like "Hurricane has its sights set on New Orleans" when it in fact is NOT aimed at New Orleans.

 

Thank you.  Hoping for a northward change to clear Miami and FLL. This is hard for all those with Sunday sailings.

 

And Sunday flights too, don’t forget us temporary WDW landlubbers....

 

Hoping for a turn back out to sea actually!

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RCCL has posted that they will have final itinerary’s for all ships coming up. They posted a picture showing the storm going south and not getting here until Monday PM and said they would be sending out communication tonight. It said it would confirm if alternate ports were needed and final itinerary. Not sure to take this early on decision probably meaning a cancel or maybe cause of the slow down it means they think the ships can get out Sunday. Holding my breath! 

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Posted (edited)

waiting still for the 6PM update from rccl on their web page  on navigator 9/2

Edited by blueclawfan

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MSC Seaside is arriving into port 1 day early in preparations for the port of Miami to be closed.  MSC will update on Friday as to the sailing of the Seaside on Saturday!!!  How likely will the port be closed so early?     

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2 hours ago, legaljen1969 said:

Yes a LONG way out in Hurricane days as of 8/25.   Now it's 8/29 and it's still a mystery as to the ultimate destination of this storm. 
It seems like my area, Hilton Head, has had too many of these things lately.
My thoughts and prayers are with whoever ends up taking the brunt of it.

 

We moved to Hilton Head four years ago because we'd had enough of hurricanes in Miami...just in time for Matthew.  Bad timing.

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4 minutes ago, Donoilman said:

MSC Seaside is arriving into port 1 day early in preparations for the port of Miami to be closed.  MSC will update on Friday as to the sailing of the Seaside on Saturday!!!  How likely will the port be closed so early?     

I just went to the Port of Miami site and at 12 p.m. they instituted preparation X-ray. I have no idea what that means

but if interested just google Port of Miami and the information is there.

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Don't know how accurate this is, and I definitely don't want to give bad info,  but this was on the RCL blog message board-

Dolores Bishop 43 minutes ago

My son is on the allure right now and he said they are staying out to sea one more day.So they will be in Monday 9/2

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We have a group were a fellow member is doing a back to back on the Breakaway. He just posted to us that the ships Captain made their 1st public announcement about Dorian just a bit ago. He said that the the Coast Guard has put code X-ray in effect for the Port of Miami and the ship is to stay in place at their last scheduled port which will be Cozumel in the morning. He has told them he would be back to give the passengers more details in an hour. 

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Okay now I’m panicking..... we’re supposed to leave on the NCL Sky this Saturday from Port of Miami. If x-ray is the first step to port closure, what could this mean for us?

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