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PelicanBill

Atlantic storm Dorian

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15 minutes ago, troyers said:

What are the chances Miami airport will shut down Saturday?

unlikely, the storm is supposed to get smaller and smaller by the time it reaches Florida. 

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26 minutes ago, gizmoneil said:

unlikely, the storm is supposed to get smaller and smaller by the time it reaches Florida. 

I hope you are right. I am paranoid.

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4 hours ago, GA Buddy said:

Thanks Bill for the info!

Also just got off the phone with NCL and they said as of now we will be sailing out Thursday.

Maybe a reroute depending on how things go over the next two days.

NCL and others will keep telling you everything is all set to sail because that's what they have.  They won't even have information on changes until AFTER it goes out by email to you! It could also appear in your MyNCL messages so log in there often and watch your email.  They also robocall.  On our last cruise affected by a storm they kept telling people as we boarded "Yes, we're still going!" but did not say "... to Bermuda."  After we were all boarded, our itinerary changed and we stayed in port until the next day to wait for one storm to pass and then we sailed around another.  Another time our boarding was delayed 12 hours.  Information came to people in email, robocalls, and in MyNCL.  One of the above but not consistently. And we got out best info from the passengers who were coming in on the ship and by watching the ship's location on MarineTraffic!

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Lukin5 said:

Pelican Bill...you are my Cruise Critic equivalent of Mike's Weather Page on FB.  
Appreciate (all) the well-informed info!

You are welcome.  I watch Mike's too because it consolidates a lot of the best info. But Mike's not a cruise person so we go into the details there!

 

1 hour ago, troyers said:

What are the chances Miami airport will shut down Saturday?

 

We just have to watch another day or two to get any idea of the impact to the cruise ports and airports of Florida.  Here's the good news: The path shifted a little north a THIRD time at the 2pm update.  The forecast now points at Melbourne. Although there is a blocking high pressure, the models are shifting north.  That means less likely to hit Miami and Fort Lauderdale, and less likely to cross to the Gulf.  More likely to impact Port Canaveral and Jacksonville of course.  But if this holds, the issues for Miami and Fort Lauderdale could be greatly reduced.

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1 hour ago, gizmoneil said:

unlikely, the storm is supposed to get smaller and smaller by the time it reaches Florida. 

Curious where you heard that. It could happen, but with the warm waters of the Bahamas and Gulf stream storms sometimes bloom a bit as they approach the Florida coast too. So far the experts will only say they this one is just too unpredictable on size and strength other than it's good that it is a small storm to begin with!

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Sometimes cruise lines have a 1 night "cruise to nowhere" and that's what happens, they go out, cruise around for the night and return the next day. No ports at all. Where the Jone's act comes in is with a port (I think, no lawyer). A cruise can for example go to Key West but must hit a foreign port prior to the home port. In states of emergencies I don't know if that is lifted....

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Detailed Forecast

 

000
WTNT45 KNHC 271512 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph

Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night
and Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the
next few days.

3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this
weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is
increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 14.2N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 15.2N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 16.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 17.9N  67.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.5N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 22.8N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 25.6N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 27.8N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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22 minutes ago, cruiseanon32 said:

Detailed Forecast

 


000
WTNT45 KNHC 271512 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph

Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night
and Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the
next few days.

3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this
weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is
increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 14.2N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 15.2N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 16.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 17.9N  67.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.5N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 22.8N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 25.6N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 27.8N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

That's the 11 o clock   The 5 pm one is already out 

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Apologies

000
WTNT45 KNHC 272100
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Dorian's convective pattern has continued to fluctuate this
afternoon due to some interaction with the Windward and Leeward
Islands, but mainly due to intrusions of very dry mid-level air. A
10-mile wide eye feature developed in Martinique and Guadeloupe
radar data between 1500-1600 UTC and again between 1700-1800 UTC.
But this feature had been short-lived due to erosion of the
inner-core convection caused by dry air entrainment, although a
recent burst of deep convection has developed near and over the
low-level center. Dorian's upper-level outflow has continued to
expand and is very symmetrical. The initial intensity has been
maintained at 45 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level and SFMR
surface wind data.

Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon
fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or
300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new
forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous
one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement
on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning
northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near
or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After
clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move
cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving
mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and
how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low
and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp
Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track
is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and
brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours.
Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track
forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or
so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with
Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the
intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models
continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear
conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will
be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level
environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF
are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still
remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models,
which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The
official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these
two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models.
Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than-
normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4
and 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican
Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due to the potential for Dorian's interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to weaken the storm.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 15.3N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 16.2N  64.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 17.6N  66.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.1N  67.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 20.8N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 24.2N  72.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 26.7N  76.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 28.2N  80.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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We've had some developments today.  The center of Dorian was found to be a significant distance from the assumed location that has been used for forecasting. So it was repositioned and all the models had to be rerun. As a result we have these changes:

 

1. The storm is now expected to CROSS Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm. Not good at all. Lots of people living in tents and delicate electric infrastructure.

2. It continues as a tropical storm to the NORTH of the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas - good news for them, worst will be offshore.

3. Florida landfall continues to bump a iittle more north, now getting quite close to Port Canaveral.  Don't count on this.  The average variation on a 5 day forecast is 200 miles.  But I am more and more sure that this won't cause major delays in Miami and Fort Lauderdale. But... while Puerto Rico will weaken the storm, conditions are favorable for development as it comes into Florida and it is expected to be close to Hurricane Category 1 strength, and the NHC discussion says Cateogry 2 is not out of the question.

 

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16 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

We've had some developments today.  The center of Dorian was found to be a significant distance from the assumed location that has been used for forecasting. So it was repositioned and all the models had to be rerun. As a result we have these changes:

 

1. The storm is now expected to CROSS Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm. Not good at all. Lots of people living in tents and delicate electric infrastructure.

2. It continues as a tropical storm to the NORTH of the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas - good news for them, worst will be offshore.

3. Florida landfall continues to bump a iittle more north, now getting quite close to Port Canaveral.  Don't count on this.  The average variation on a 5 day forecast is 200 miles.  But I am more and more sure that this won't cause major delays in Miami and Fort Lauderdale. But... while Puerto Rico will weaken the storm, conditions are favorable for development as it comes into Florida and it is expected to be close to Hurricane Category 1 strength, and the NHC discussion says Cateogry 2 is not out of the question.

 

Do you think the Sun will actually go to Nassau and Freeport? Maybe KW and Nassau?

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1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

We've had some developments today.  The center of Dorian was found to be a significant distance from the assumed location that has been used for forecasting. So it was repositioned and all the models had to be rerun. As a result we have these changes:

 

1. The storm is now expected to CROSS Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm. Not good at all. Lots of people living in tents and delicate electric infrastructure.

2. It continues as a tropical storm to the NORTH of the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas - good news for them, worst will be offshore.

3. Florida landfall continues to bump a iittle more north, now getting quite close to Port Canaveral.  Don't count on this.  The average variation on a 5 day forecast is 200 miles.  But I am more and more sure that this won't cause major delays in Miami and Fort Lauderdale. But... while Puerto Rico will weaken the storm, conditions are favorable for development as it comes into Florida and it is expected to be close to Hurricane Category 1 strength, and the NHC discussion says Cateogry 2 is not out of the question.

 

 

1 hour ago, bobsfamily said:

Do you think the Sun will actually go to Nassau and Freeport? Maybe KW and Nassau?

003101_key_messages_sm.png

 

according to the 5 PM forecast it clearly says Bahamas is expected to "Heavy Rains" later this week. Also says hurricane conditions are expected in Bahamas and portions of Florida. Why hasn't NCL reached out and said anything about NCL Sun leaving on Thursday? 

 

Our flight out of Michigan tomorrow night! if they cancel on Thursday morning do they pay for our accommodations ? Why not just reroute to somewhere else cause clearly Bahamas aren't going to be vacation friendly this weekend. 

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Just got a notice about my cruise coming up on the Mariner of the Seas.

RCCL just stated that Coco Cay is closed until September 4th.

 

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8 minutes ago, Ander026 said:

Just got a notice about my cruise coming up on the Mariner of the Seas.

RCCL just stated that Coco Cay is closed until September 4th.

 

Just got the same dreaded email for harmony 9/1

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46 minutes ago, g_deol88 said:

Just got the same dreaded email for harmony 9/1

 

55 minutes ago, Ander026 said:

Just got a notice about my cruise coming up on the Mariner of the Seas.

RCCL just stated that Coco Cay is closed until September 4th.

 

 

Is your cruise canceled or just the port stop?

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 Quick update late Tuesday. As seen above strength now slightly above category 1 for Florida landfall, and path is now dangerous for Puerto Rico even though tropical storm strength. Path has also shifted north a 4th time and is now north of Port Canaveral and slowed for landfall Sunday night. 

 

Remember this is is a difficult storm to forecast and we are still 5 days out. Highly doubtful that anything is going into the gulf with any strength - that’s my personal view.

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for the Sun on Thursday: the reason you haven’t heard anything is they intend to board and sail south to be out of the way. They will decide your destination that day. I’ve seen NCL do this a number of times including my 2016 Breakaway that did not go to Bermuda!

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3 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

for the Sun on Thursday: the reason you haven’t heard anything is they intend to board and sail south to be out of the way. They will decide your destination that day. I’ve seen NCL do this a number of times including my 2016 Breakaway that did not go to Bermuda!

That's basically what they told me on the phone earlier, that plans were to depart and then would be up to the Captain to decide.

Been to Nassau many times so anywhere south would be fine with me!

I'm at the point of just get me on the ship a drink in my hand and out to blue water LOL

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6 minutes ago, GA Buddy said:

That's basically what they told me on the phone earlier, that plans were to depart and then would be up to the Captain to decide.

Been to Nassau many times so anywhere south would be fine with me!

I'm at the point of just get me on the ship a drink in my hand and out to blue water LOL

I’m on the Sky Saturday. I thought the Sun and Sky only went to the Bahamas and KW.  Have they been known to divert to other places before?

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7 hours ago, GA Buddy said:

That's basically what they told me on the phone earlier, that plans were to depart and then would be up to the Captain to decide.

Been to Nassau many times so anywhere south would be fine with me!

I'm at the point of just get me on the ship a drink in my hand and out to blue water LOL

Yes! that's the spirit.

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Wednesday early morning update.  Dorian is better organized and the path has shifted east and north again.  

 

Now to cross Puerto Rico's NE corner near San Juan as a strong tropical storm. That means far less land interaction and it will be stronger as it passes the Bahamas. So now forecast to make hurricane cat 1 while off the Bahamas and cat 2 for Florida landfall somewhere north of Melbourne or as far north as Jacksonville, arriving late Sunday night to Monday morning.

 

Important: still plenty of time to vary the path.  And they are choosing strength on the LOW end of variance in the forecast, saying there is good chance for upward revisions on the strength, and changes in path and timing.

 

At this point, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are looking to escape this.  Port Canaveral and Jacksonville cruises are most likely to be delayed, unless storm timing slips further giving them time to get out.

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7 hours ago, troyers said:

I’m on the Sky Saturday. I thought the Sun and Sky only went to the Bahamas and KW.  Have they been known to divert to other places before?

 

Same question!

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5 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Wednesday early morning update.  Dorian is better organized and the path has shifted east and north again.  

 

Now to cross Puerto Rico's NE corner near San Juan as a strong tropical storm. That means far less land interaction and it will be stronger as it passes the Bahamas. So now forecast to make hurricane cat 1 while off the Bahamas and cat 2 for Florida landfall somewhere north of Melbourne or as far north as Jacksonville, arriving late Sunday night to Monday morning.

 

Important: still plenty of time to vary the path.  And they are choosing strength on the LOW end of variance in the forecast, saying there is good chance for upward revisions on the strength, and changes in path and timing.

 

At this point, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are looking to escape this.  Port Canaveral and Jacksonville cruises are most likely to be delayed, unless storm timing slips further giving them time to get out.

 

So Thursday cruises leaving from Port Canaveral will be able to leave prior to the storm.

What happens though when we come back on Monday morning and the florida is under hurricane conditions?

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1 minute ago, gizmoneil said:

 

So Thursday cruises leaving from Port Canaveral will be able to leave prior to the storm.

What happens though when we come back on Monday morning and the florida is under hurricane conditions?

Most often the cruise is extended until the ship can return to port, and the following cruise is shortened.

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