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PelicanBill

Atlantic storm Dorian

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8 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Wednesday early morning update.  Dorian is better organized and the path has shifted east and north again.  

 

Now to cross Puerto Rico's NE corner near San Juan as a strong tropical storm. That means far less land interaction and it will be stronger as it passes the Bahamas. So now forecast to make hurricane cat 1 while off the Bahamas and cat 2 for Florida landfall somewhere north of Melbourne or as far north as Jacksonville, arriving late Sunday night to Monday morning.

 

Important: still plenty of time to vary the path.  And they are choosing strength on the LOW end of variance in the forecast, saying there is good chance for upward revisions on the strength, and changes in path and timing.

 

At this point, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are looking to escape this.  Port Canaveral and Jacksonville cruises are most likely to be delayed, unless storm timing slips further giving them time to get out.

Anyone think there is any chance they may reroute the 9/1 sailing of Harmony from Port Canaveral to go out of Miami or Ft Lauderdale since it appears those ports will not be affected? And if not, what are the chances the 9/1 sailing era cancelled all together? Thanks for any info or opinions. 

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1 minute ago, Traciewatson said:

Anyone think there is any chance they may reroute the 9/1 sailing of Harmony from Port Canaveral to go out of Miami or Ft Lauderdale since it appears those ports will not be affected? And if not, what are the chances the 9/1 sailing era cancelled all together? Thanks for any info or opinions. 

Although they did this from New Orleans to Mobile recently, that's pretty far to bus people. They will try very hard not to cancel completely.  Delays are common in these situations. The storm timing is slipping toward Monday...

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3 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Although they did this from New Orleans to Mobile recently, that's pretty far to bus people. They will try very hard not to cancel completely.  Delays are common in these situations. The storm timing is slipping toward Monday...

Thank you, so looks like best case scenario possibly we leave Tuesday as long as it does not damage Port Canaveral? I know others were thinking possible if Dorian continues to move more north and timing goes out further for landfall that Harmony could maybe get into port Sunday and back out ahead of the storm, but seems to me that’s asking Harmony to cruise towards a hurricane which doesn’t sound safe or possible to me since they would have to head south again towards the storm. But in the end most important is I hope everyone is safe.

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Latest.  I am getting gas for my generator and topping off my bottled water/hurricane kit today.

 

Capture.JPG

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Posted (edited)

I do get a kick out of reading all these situations.   I'm supposed to be on Symphony Saturday Miami to Nassau and back in three days.  Kind of the path of Dorian at the same times.  Like everybody else, I speculate on what may happen.  Fact is, not even the cruise lines know what they'll do this weekend, if anything.  We guess the storm is doing this and then it shifts to that.  We guess the ports will be skipped then we find there is no hurricane.  We have that law about international visits are required. 

 

I intend to raise a drink and ride it out no matter where I am this weekend.  Cheers!  

Edited by ebedore

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9 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

Latest.  I am getting gas for my generator and topping off my bottled water/hurricane kit today.

 

Capture.JPG

First Coast here

Will be doing same- utility candles, a bit of water for us and dog and a few non perishables etc

Glad we had the trees trimmed last year though the river birches are a risk.

 

Frustrating as we have had a bid to get the generator outlet etc into the garage/connected to the box so that we could backfeed and keep the fridge and a few items running with the generator. However ... DH sat on the bid for over a month now... "getting around to pulling the trigger"... Doubtful it will be in before the weekend now

 

Not complaining-- as we have a family wedding to attend this weekend and know the Bride/Groom are disappointed in the forecast. They were then chartering a sailboat in the Bahamas starting Monday! 😞

 

Have been watching this as we embark the following weekend for B2B

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Haven't seen any discussion about how this might impact Charleston.  We are headed out on the Carnival Sunshine on Monday the 2nd.  For most of the weekend, and into this week, Charleston looked to be in the clear but now it is looking like they might get some of this.  I am concerned that the Sunshine might be delayed getting back into port Monday morning.  Any thoughts?

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I have a 2 pm flight Sunday 9/1 out of MCO to PHL.  Any thoughts on how MCO flights might be impacted?  

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5 minutes ago, Raiderguy8 said:

Haven't seen any discussion about how this might impact Charleston.  We are headed out on the Carnival Sunshine on Monday the 2nd.  For most of the weekend, and into this week, Charleston looked to be in the clear but now it is looking like they might get some of this.  I am concerned that the Sunshine might be delayed getting back into port Monday morning.  Any thoughts?

 

I'm on this same cruise AND I'm a travel agent.  I just called CCL and so far no changes to this itinerary.  Obviously there will have to be changes but the agent I spoke to at CCL said they typically notify us the "evening before the cruise departs" so we should hear something by text or email later today.  Fingers crossed although I'm not feeling very optimistic this time.  😞

 

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 Does anyone know how royal Caribbean handles delays? We are currently set to sail out of Port Canaveral on Monday. If things were to be delayed until Tuesday, would  they cover any expenses such as a hotel or meals?  Do they typically offer on board credit for the missed night?  Just trying to be prepared. I appreciate it! 

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OK so I don't want to sound like a Nervous Nelly, but, well, you know.  So for anyone who has been on a cruise while skirting a hurricane, just how rough can I expect the seas to be?  I'm on the Carnival Sunshine leaving tomorrow out of Charleston for a 4 night, current itinerary calls for port in Princess Cays on Saturday.  Thoughts?

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12 minutes ago, karajeboo said:

OK so I don't want to sound like a Nervous Nelly, but, well, you know.  So for anyone who has been on a cruise while skirting a hurricane, just how rough can I expect the seas to be?  I'm on the Carnival Sunshine leaving tomorrow out of Charleston for a 4 night, current itinerary calls for port in Princess Cays on Saturday.  Thoughts?

You won't be going to princess Cays Saturday....  I think it could be rough the last day or if the storm goes further north you could be shortened or extended.  Very hard to say how rough.  I have been in very rough seas and it's quite safe... just uncomfortable for some.  Take the remedies with you if prone to seasickness.

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38 minutes ago, JTJT1 said:

 Does anyone know how royal Caribbean handles delays? We are currently set to sail out of Port Canaveral on Monday. If things were to be delayed until Tuesday, would  they cover any expenses such as a hotel or meals?  Do they typically offer on board credit for the missed night?  Just trying to be prepared. I appreciate it! 

Typically there are adjustments in price or OBC given for shortened cruises.  But no help for hotels or meals. Trip insurance is the remedy for this.

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58 minutes ago, erdoran said:

I have a 2 pm flight Sunday 9/1 out of MCO to PHL.  Any thoughts on how MCO flights might be impacted?  

Timing is still very hard to read 4 days out.  MCO will try to maintain operations as long as it is safe to do so. Airlines may cancel flights out of caution and we will certainly see windows of change penalties waived if they do that.

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1 hour ago, GA Dave said:

Latest.  I am getting gas for my generator and topping off my bottled water/hurricane kit today.

 

Capture.JPG

You are very smart. Once a long time ago I didn't prepare properly and it was not fun. Since then

every hurricane/big storm predicted I do the same. Stay safe.

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1 hour ago, Raiderguy8 said:

Haven't seen any discussion about how this might impact Charleston.  We are headed out on the Carnival Sunshine on Monday the 2nd.  For most of the weekend, and into this week, Charleston looked to be in the clear but now it is looking like they might get some of this.  I am concerned that the Sunshine might be delayed getting back into port Monday morning.  Any thoughts?

So Charleston is just coming into the far outside edge of the possible area of effect, just as Miami is at the southern end. Have to watch that path.  If it keeps edging northward then your port could have delays and since Charleston is especially prone to storm surge we'd see significant delays if it starts to track within 50 miles of there.

 

But at this point, the forecast suggests no delays for Charleston.  it has changed every 12 hours so keep watching.

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1 hour ago, Raiderguy8 said:

Haven't seen any discussion about how this might impact Charleston.  We are headed out on the Carnival Sunshine on Monday the 2nd.  For most of the weekend, and into this week, Charleston looked to be in the clear but now it is looking like they might get some of this.  I am concerned that the Sunshine might be delayed getting back into port Monday morning.  Any thoughts?

We are on that sailing as well coming from Ohio driving in on Sunday.  We are watching very closely as well.

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C074FDAC-9359-4901-9021-1F8BD2A41209.thumb.jpeg.b0fae701f2f305fc0b9937e8d576ca76.jpeg  Just made this because seeing it side-by-side gave me a better view of where it is currently forecast to hit!

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Thoughts on a cruise leaving from Baltimore on 9/1? We're set to head to the Bahamas (although I would not hate a reroute to Bermuda!). I'm thinking we'll miss a lot of the storm and just experience some rocky waters. 

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36 minutes ago, amsk2112 said:

Thoughts on a cruise leaving from Baltimore on 9/1? We're set to head to the Bahamas (although I would not hate a reroute to Bermuda!). I'm thinking we'll miss a lot of the storm and just experience some rocky waters. 

Good question. I think a lot will depend on whether this storm skirts the FL coast and heads toward GA/SC/NC or if it cuts through FL and toward the Gulf. The Bahamas (I imagine) would be smooth sailing by the time you got there, but navigating whatever's left of Erin as well as whatever Dorian might be doing leaves a lot to speculation for the time being.  

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1 hour ago, karajeboo said:

OK so I don't want to sound like a Nervous Nelly, but, well, you know.  So for anyone who has been on a cruise while skirting a hurricane, just how rough can I expect the seas to be?  I'm on the Carnival Sunshine leaving tomorrow out of Charleston for a 4 night, current itinerary calls for port in Princess Cays on Saturday.  Thoughts?

 

In 2017 I was on a cruise that basically followed Hurricane Franklin. Each port we went to had just been affected by the storm just hours before our arrival. It was kind of a rough ride. They had the barf bags out in the main hallways for people to grab. I remember sitting at dinner and seeing my water move from side to side more than normal. 

 

Bring some dramamine just in case!

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Posted (edited)

11 am update is in for Wednesday.

 

Dorian is passing close to St. Croix, Next it will pass Vieques and Culebra east of Puerto Rico and then affect the eastern edge of PR.  Strength is building.  It is now expected to become a hurricane very soon - as it leave PR perhaps.  And then to be Category 3 somewhere off the NE and N of the Bahamas (Freeport area.)  Being a small storm I don't think the Bahama Islands will see more than tropical storm or Cat. 1 for some.  Path could change still 2 days out.

 

Landfall for Florida about the same - Melbourne/Titusville area which includes Port Canaveral, as a Category 2 storm now. That area had impact in 2016 when I ended up there instead of Bermuda.  

 

UPDATE: They reissued the 11am chart and winds.  Now forecast Category 3 for Florida Landfall. Time to make preparations up and down the coast.  Expect no cruises for 2 days in Port Canaveral, Sunday and Monday I think.  Expect air travel issues for Orlando and West Palm.  Maybe more.

 

Edited by PelicanBill

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Posted (edited)

I was on the Carnival Fascination on a Labor Day southern Caribbean itinerary in 2017.  First port call - 1.5 days before Hurricane Irma in STT.  Fourth port call - St. Kitts post Irma.  These ships are good at ducking and running around these storms.  

Edited by o2bonn

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