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tface023

Hurricane Dorian talk

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Current position of Allure of the Seas: Under way from San Juan to Nassau

 

  • Departure was 1 hrs 52 min ago. (at 14:00 h local time)
  • Arrival will be in 1 d 19 hrs 8 min. (at 11:00 h local time)
  • Traveled distance since San Juan: 27.07 nm (50.13 km)
  • Remaining distance to Nassau: 751.84 nm (1,392.40 km)
  • Traveled distance since Fort Lauderdale (Port Everglades, FL): 1,359.75 nm (2,518.26 km)
  • Course: 308°

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4 minutes ago, Host Clarea said:

 

Is this the European model?

Yes, has it almost stalled out with others still showing lot further north

Edited by ONECRUISER

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2 minutes ago, Host Clarea said:

 

Is this the European model?

I believe so.  It is the ECMWF Model.

 

"ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts"

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40 minutes ago, kruzerci said:

 

Just got the same one for Symphony leaving Saturday. Pissed!

We did not get one for Allure leaving on Sunday. 

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Earlier today the Weather Channel was discussing the various models and said the European Model is the most funded model.  He said ours here are tax funded and don't have nearly the amount of funding as the European Model.  Insinuation was the European Model was "better" / had more up to date features.  

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3 minutes ago, repo-cruiser said:

Current position of Allure of the Seas: Under way from San Juan to Nassau

 

  • Departure was 1 hrs 52 min ago. (at 14:00 h local time)
  • Arrival will be in 1 d 19 hrs 8 min. (at 11:00 h local time)
  • Traveled distance since San Juan: 27.07 nm (50.13 km)
  • Remaining distance to Nassau: 751.84 nm (1,392.40 km)
  • Traveled distance since Fort Lauderdale (Port Everglades, FL): 1,359.75 nm (2,518.26 km)
  • Course: 308°

I don’t think you info is correct I am on allure we left Jamaica last night and will be in Cozumel tomorrow.

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Current position of Allure of the Seas: Under way from San Juan to Nassau

 

  • Departure was 1 hrs 52 min ago. (at 14:00 h local time)
  • Arrival will be in 1 d 19 hrs 8 min. (at 11:00 h local time)
  • Traveled distance since San Juan: 27.07 nm (50.13 km)
  • Remaining distance to Nassau: 751.84 nm (1,392.40 km)
  • Traveled distance since Fort Lauderdale (Port Everglades, FL): 1,359.75 nm (2,518.26 km)
  • Course: 308°


Huh?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, thrifty99 said:

I believe so.  It is the ECMWF Model.

 

"ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts"

 

7 minutes ago, ONECRUISER said:

Yes, has it almost stalled out with others still showing lot further north

 

Thanks.  Their model shows landfall on Tuesday.  Things are changing, lots of time for more changes.  This thing can still go south and hit Miami, or maybe miss Florida altogether.

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2 hours ago, blueridgemama said:

 

Do you stay put during these storms/hurricane threats or do you high tail it to higher ground! What are you planning for this one?

 

I believe we are staying. Made it through Mathew and Irma fairly well. 

20190829_154425.thumb.jpg.6f418bb453b7e17e3f60cf8476d09dff.jpg

 

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5 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

I believe we are staying. Made it through Mathew and Irma fairly well. 

I think you should live blog. It would have us on the edge of our seats.

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2 hours ago, tface023 said:

I’m in touch with a crew member on board the harmony now. He’s hearing that they are talking about delaying arrival until Monday.

 

Im not optimistic, though. Some predictions say the storm may not even make landfall until Monday or Tuesday.

 

I’m on board. Sunday seems very doubtful looking at 70mph wind speeds that morning. Tuesday or later is my guess depending on when the eye passes and winds let up. Who know if the port will be closed as well. 

 

2 hours ago, ryano said:

 

I just cancelled my hotel reservation regardless.  Im not coming down even if I lose everything at this point. Gonna be an expensive lesson learned if so but there is no way I am subjecting myself to that kinda stress and chaos.  Its wishful thinking at this point to think this cruise will leave out on Sunday IMO and they know this already. 

 

Ryano I’m so sorry to read this. It was a hard decision but your own safety is paramount. 

 

2 hours ago, smplybcause said:

 

That makes no sense. Monday is when things will start picking up. 

 

Sunday PC is expecting 70mph wind speeds. I suspect the port will be closed. Then the eye passes at some point and I bet part of a day for the port to open again. 

 

1 hour ago, tface023 said:

It would be a logistical nightmare to get everyone there early on such short notice, too.  

 

Exactly. I doubt RC would spend people into danger purposely, not to mention drop guests off early and leaving them in harms way. 

 

1 hour ago, rolloman said:

The ship could come in early and then depart without passengers. However with revenue paying customers already onboard, I would assume staying out at sea would be a better deal in their minds. This whole thing will boil down to when the port decides to close.. then they can get the blame lol.... 

 

Agreed. 

 

48 minutes ago, thrifty99 said:

Weather Channel just showed updated Euro model which looks good for us.  It shows Dorian near the Bahamas on Tuesday so it has shifted it South and further East.  That would be great and put us back on track for a Sunday departure on Harmony.

 

Except for wind speeds etc. I highly suspect that they are not going to push their ships towards the projected path of the storm.

 

We are in Honduras right now, Costa Maya tomorrow and then it should have been a sea day on the way to port. I think barring a big change of direction many ships will be lingering around Cuba waiting for the eye to pass and will dock and disembark guests as soon as possible after. 

 

After that some guests may board if they are there/able to. I suspect those on board will be given the offer to stay for the remaining days of what would become a B2B. Much like Irma a few years ago. 

 

I’d love to disembark Sunday and fly home. However, with so much uncertainty and the fact that it is a most likely going to be a cat 4 I don’t think that’s happening. 

Edited by A&L_Ont

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24 minutes ago, Host Clarea said:

 

 

Thanks.  Their model shows landfall on Tuesday.  Things are changing, lots of time for more changes.  This thing can still go south and hit Miami, or maybe miss Florida altogether.

Yes, we can hope...

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32 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I believe we are staying. Made it through Mathew and Irma fairly well. 

20190829_154425.thumb.jpg.6f418bb453b7e17e3f60cf8476d09dff.jpg

 

 

So, you have the non-alcohol drink package? 

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18 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

Sunday PC is expecting 70mph wind speeds. I suspect the port will be closed. Then the eye passes at some point and I bet part of a day for the port to open again. 

 

It WAS expecting that when they were expecting landfall Sunday night. Landfall has been pushed out as the storm is slowing down. There's only a 5% probability of 70mph winds at 8pm Sunday as of the forecast at 8am this morning. This morning's forecast was landfall Monday morning after 8am, but the latest models seem to push it out further. It also had the storm still dead over Orlando Tuesday morning so the port will be closed then.

 

I think NOAA comes out with their next advisory at 5 which will provide more info. 

 

Ok, just saw that Canaveral is on limited operations, not sure what that means cruise wise? I'm surprised they moved up since all forecasts seem to have the storm not come here until Monday at the earliest.

Edited by smplybcause

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1 hour ago, thrifty99 said:

Thanks Bob.  The bigger question is if you ever recall them departing a day earlier for some reason in the past?

 

We've came back early twice. Once for Irma on MJ, but the ship left immediately with no new passengers. 

Second time was Oasis because of a Noro outbreak. They spent Saturday cleaning, stayed overnight, and boarded passengers on schedule

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6 minutes ago, smplybcause said:

 

It WAS expecting that when they were expecting landfall Sunday night. Landfall has been pushed out as the storm is slowing down. There's only a 5% probability of 70mph winds at 8pm Sunday as of the forecast at 8am this morning. This morning's forecast was landfall Monday morning after 8am, but the latest models seem to push it out further. It also had the storm still dead over Orlando Tuesday morning so the port will be closed then.

 

I think NOAA comes out with their next advisory at 5 which will provide more info. 

 

Ok, just saw that Canaveral is on limited operations, not sure what that means cruise wise? I'm surprised they moved up since all forecasts seem to have the storm not come here until Monday at the earliest.

 

 

It’s a mystery. I just look at this and think it’s not gonna happen.   Would a still love to fly home Sunday but I seriously have my doubts. 

 

9A4F7BBD-9ABD-41B2-9C32-596CC7052BFE.thumb.jpeg.36179359649d3f84f8935134b93bac41.jpeg

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52 minutes ago, Host Clarea said:

 

 

Thanks.  Their model shows landfall on Tuesday.  Things are changing, lots of time for more changes.  This thing can still go south and hit Miami, or maybe miss Florida altogether.

The model has been shifting from Sebastian to Daytona the past few days. Historically speaking, somewhere between these two cities is where it will make landfall. They make this huge cone these days as a CYA.  I am hearing of no prominent models suggesting landfall Tuesday. The latest 5pm shows Monday PM, with tropical force winds beginning early Sunday. 

Edited by rolloman

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I know a couple who had expected to board on Sunday and ended up getting an extra night at their hotel in case they were not able to board on Sunday. 

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2 minutes ago, Desert Cruizers said:

I know a couple who had expected to board on Sunday and ended up getting an extra night at their hotel in case they were not able to board on Sunday. 

 

Very wise. If they find out the cruise is cancelled they might want to escape before the airport is closed. Not fun at all either way. 

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1 hour ago, AshleyDillo said:

I think I recall them porting early and then sailing back out again out of the way of the storm.  They gave the passengers the option to get off early or stay on but they didn't know 100% for sure how long the extension would be.  

 

MJ stayed out around 10 days as I recall

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Port Canaveral has not changed operating status to XRAY. 48 hours before suspected gale force winds. Next status change results in restrictions. 

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