Are you afraid of the coronavirus in your next cruise?

[Harry Peterson]

10 minutes ago, clo said:

So the cruise line has canceled?

No - I've cancelled.

[clo]

10 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

No - I've cancelled.

Oh gotcha. The way it was phrased it seemed like they had. Where were you going and when?

[Harry Peterson]

58 minutes ago, clo said:

Oh gotcha. The way it was phrased it seemed like they had. Where were you going and when?

Within Europe, Spring and Summer. Could all be fine by then, but my guess is that it will be across Europe within a month or so, vaccines won’t be available until next year, and I have no desire to be on a cruise ship with a possible pool of infection.

 

Mortality rates are probably low at around 1%, but a lot higher than that in the elderly and those with existing conditions.

[clo]

19 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Within Europe, Spring and Summer. Could all be fine by then, but my guess is that it will be across Europe within a month or so, vaccines won’t be available until next year, and I have no desire to be on a cruise ship with a possible pool of infection.

 

Mortality rates are probably low at around 1%, but a lot higher than that in the elderly and those with existing conditions.

Thanks. We're cruising Baltic and Scandanavia in Sept. and I'm going to put a note on my calendar to take a look at things when we can get a full refund (mid-summer IIRC). If this is going to be a pandemic then that can certainly be a factor.

[KnowTheScore]

24 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

 my guess is that it will be across Europe within a month or so, vaccines won’t be available until next year, and I have no desire to be on a cruise ship with a possible pool of infection.

 

 

It's already in Europe.  Bear in mind that the KNOWN cases are just a fraction of the total number of cases as many people who will have Coronavirus won't distinguish it from any other cold/flu or ILI.   Take a look at the picture link below to see the cases across the world:

 

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/02/12/04/24594710-7994165-There_are_more_than_43_000_cases_worldwide_so_far_and_more_than_-a-65_1581482704363.jpg

 

 

Germany : 14 cases

Italy : 3 cases

France: 11 cases

UK : 8 cases

Spain : 2 cases

 

etc

 

Remember these numbers are somewhat meaningless because they are only the KNOWN cases which are the ones serious enough that people went to GPs or hospitals.   There will imho be countless more cases than these.

 

 

 

[KnowTheScore]

DIAMOND PRICESS CASES

 

The number of Coronavirus cases on the quarantined Diamond Princess has now risen again.

 

It started with just a few, then 41, then 66, then 137 and now 175 cases

 

At what point to we start to seriously reassess the notion that air-conditioning doesn't spread viruses between cabins?!!

 

Not a great time to be cruising imho.

Edited February 12, 2020 by KnowTheScore

[Harry Peterson]

16 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

 

It's already in Europe. 

 

 

 

That I appreciate - but I said 'across Europe', and by that I meant large numbers, not just a few cases.  If it hasn't been contained (and I can't see that as more than a remote possibility) we have to accept that it will spread amongst hundreds of thousand, millions in fact.  Not a big problem for most people, but for some it's a potential killer, and though the % is small, the numbers could be very high, meaning a high number of cases needing intensive medical treatment.

 

That treatment, in those numbers, couldn't happen on a cruise ship - and it's difficult to see how the NHS could cope with it.  That apart, I just don't want to be on a cruise ship in that situation.  Ports missed and quarantine is one aspect, but we may reach a point soon when quarantining becomes pointless and we have to accept that most people will pick up the virus.

[perditax]

25 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

DIAMOND PRICESS CASES

 

The number of Coronavirus cases on the quarantined Diamond Princess has now risen again.

 

It started with just a few, then 41, then 66, then 137 and now 175 cases

 

At what point to we start to seriously reassess the notion that air-conditioning doesn't spread viruses between cabins?!!

 

Not a great time to be cruising imho.

 

The ship only went into quarantine one week ago ... still within initial incubation period. Still only a fraction of the 3700ish people aboard. Infected persons are being removed from the ship. No need for the bold-type red-font antics. 

[chengkp75]

42 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

DIAMOND PRICESS CASES

 

The number of Coronavirus cases on the quarantined Diamond Princess has now risen again.

 

It started with just a few, then 41, then 66, then 137 and now 175 cases

 

At what point to we start to seriously reassess the notion that air-conditioning doesn't spread viruses between cabins?!!

 

Not a great time to be cruising imho.

Yes, and the fact is that only between 400-500 people on the ship have been tested, so many of those who have not been tested may have contracted it before the quarantine, or even before joining the ship.

 

The CDC (oops, that's right, they are part of the conspiracy, but this is for those who prefer facts) feels that the most prevalent form of transmission is in large droplets, from coughs or sneezes, with only about a 6 foot radius before the droplet breaks apart and the concentration of virus drops below dangerous levels.  There is no evidence that the virus can live outside the host long enough to be transmitted through an air conditioning duct, even if there was cross ventilation between cabins.  These facts support the statements about the conditions the passengers on the Diamond are under, small groups and keeping distance from anyone else, when in public. 

 

Please show an attribution that coronavirus is spread by air conditioning, regardless of location.  The only mention I've seen about air conditioning and coronavirus deals with SARS, and relates to the viability of dried virus spores on surfaces, and that low temperatures and low humidity increases the life of SARS on surfaces, but you then need to introduce this into the body by contact, not aerosol again.

[clo]

14 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

feels that the most prevalent form of transmission is in large droplets, from coughs or sneezes, with only about a 6 foot radius before the droplet breaks apart and the concentration of virus drops below dangerous levels. 

Many decades ago - maybe from my CDC days - I learned (and have just now reconfirmed) that flushing a toilet without putting down the lid creates and aerosol that can spread cooties from urine and feces. And it seems rare that a public toilet has a lid. I try to turn my back as much as possible when flushing. PS: And I'm the farthest thing from a germophobe!

[2wheelin]

33 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Yes, and the fact is that only between 400-500 people on the ship have been tested, so many of those who have not been tested may have contracted it before the quarantine, or even before joining the ship.

 

The CDC (oops, that's right, they are part of the conspiracy, but this is for those who prefer facts) feels that the most prevalent form of transmission is in large droplets, from coughs or sneezes, with only about a 6 foot radius before the droplet breaks apart and the concentration of virus drops below dangerous levels.  There is no evidence that the virus can live outside the host long enough to be transmitted through an air conditioning duct, even if there was cross ventilation between cabins.  These facts support the statements about the conditions the passengers on the Diamond are under, small groups and keeping distance from anyone else, when in public. 

 

Please show an attribution that coronavirus is spread by air conditioning, regardless of location.  The only mention I've seen about air conditioning and coronavirus deals with SARS, and relates to the viability of dried virus spores on surfaces, and that low temperatures and low humidity increases the life of SARS on surfaces, but you then need to introduce this into the body by contact, not aerosol again.

Thank you for sane people who understand the nature of both disease and mechanics. I had started to type a similar response—tho not so eloquently. After spending a few years in virus research, some of the comments on these board are depressingly hilarious.

It is also quite possible that people on the ship are not adhering to quarantine because they also do not understand. Someone posted that they could be infecting each other by visiting on their balconies. To do that, they would practically need to be leaning around the partition but the comment makes one realize there are also uninformed people on the ship.

Quarantine does not kill virus. It has to be strictly followed and wait out the incubation period.

[Harry Peterson]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Thanks. We're cruising Baltic and Scandanavia in Sept. and I'm going to put a note on my calendar to take a look at things when we can get a full refund (mid-summer IIRC). If this is going to be a pandemic then that can certainly be a factor.

That’s very much the sensible approach. Things are very unclear now, and it’s possible that the infection could be contained and limited.  It’s equally possible that it will infect a a large percentage of the world’s population.  Even in that scenario it may be that you’ll be no worse off on a cruise ship.

 

I was able to cancel cost-free.  You can too.  Best wait.

[chengkp75]

39 minutes ago, clo said:

Many decades ago - maybe from my CDC days - I learned (and have just now reconfirmed) that flushing a toilet without putting down the lid creates and aerosol that can spread cooties from urine and feces. And it seems rare that a public toilet has a lid. I try to turn my back as much as possible when flushing. PS: And I'm the farthest thing from a germophobe!

Couple things.  One, I have heard there is speculation that corona can be present in fecal matter, but I haven't seen that confirmed.  Second, that aerosol is created when the water is sprayed into the bowl at water main pressure.  Ship's toilets use a reduced pressure, since the idea is not to wash the bowl, and also, the water does not start until the discharge valve is open, and there is a strong vacuum into the bowl (try feeling around the bathroom door when flushing a vacuum toilet), so any aerosol will be drawn into the bowl, not out into the room.

[clo]

2 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Couple things.  One, I have heard there is speculation that corona can be present in fecal matter, but I haven't seen that confirmed.  Second, that aerosol is created when the water is sprayed into the bowl at water main pressure.  Ship's toilets use a reduced pressure, since the idea is not to wash the bowl, and also, the water does not start until the discharge valve is open, and there is a strong vacuum into the bowl (try feeling around the bathroom door when flushing a vacuum toilet), so any aerosol will be drawn into the bowl, not out into the room.

Thanks. I just checked and it's rare in feces. And especially thanks for the education about cruise ship toilets. That's pretty much how our motorhome works. Hadn't thought of that.

[Ava79]

1 hour ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

 

It's already in Europe.  Bear in mind that the KNOWN cases are just a fraction of the total number of cases as many people who will have Coronavirus won't distinguish it from any other cold/flu or ILI.   Take a look at the picture link below to see the cases across the world:

 

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/02/12/04/24594710-7994165-There_are_more_than_43_000_cases_worldwide_so_far_and_more_than_-a-65_1581482704363.jpg

 

 

Germany : 14 cases

Italy : 3 cases

France: 11 cases

UK : 8 cases

Spain : 2 cases

 

etc

 

Remember these numbers are somewhat meaningless because they are only the KNOWN cases which are the ones serious enough that people went to GPs or hospitals.   There will imho be countless more cases than these.

 

 

 

You're right that these cases are not all we an know but really why so dramatic? For example I heard that only two cases of coronavirus in Russia ended quite good - ill people (citizens of China if I remember it right) were released from hospitals. And death of people from coronavirus outside of mainland China it is recorded only in Taiwan and the Philippines

[Toofarfromthesea]

15 minutes ago, Ava79 said:

You're right that these cases are not all we an know but really why so dramatic? For example I heard that only two cases of coronavirus in Russia ended quite good - ill people (citizens of China if I remember it right) were released from hospitals. And death of people from coronavirus outside of mainland China it is recorded only in Taiwan and the Philippines

 

When in danger fear or doubt

Run in circles, scream and shout

[Ava79]

4 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

When in danger fear or doubt

Run in circles, scream and shout

Exactly!

[Harry Peterson]

26 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

When in danger fear or doubt

Run in circles, scream and shout

Or, alternatively:

 

When there's a danger you don't understand

Just ignore it - put your head in the sand...........

[Toofarfromthesea]

3 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Or, alternatively:

 

When there's a danger you don't understand

Just ignore it - put your head in the sand...........

 

That would be more apt if there was anyone who really understands the danger, yet.  And that is the point.  In the face of uncertainty a measured level of concern based on the best available information is far better than panic induced by scaremongering.

[clo]

26 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

That would be more apt if there was anyone who really understands the danger, yet.  And that is the point.  In the face of uncertainty a measured level of concern based on the best available information is far better than panic induced by scaremongering.

I have a "code" of sorts and it applies to lots of areas. I don't care what people think/feel/believe. I just want facts. Applies here certainly.

[KnowTheScore]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

One, I have heard there is speculation that corona can be present in fecal matter, but I haven't seen that confirmed. 

 

You may thus be interested in this:

 

Latest Study Suggests The New Coronavirus Is Also Spreading Via Feces

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/latest-coronavirus-study-suggests-it-can-also-be-spread-through-poop

 

"Diarrhea may be a secondary path of transmission for the novel coronavirus, scientists said Friday following the publication of the latest study reporting patients with abdominal symptoms and loose stool"

 

"A total of 14 out of 138 patients (10 percent) in a Wuhan hospital who were studied in the new paper by Chinese authors in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) initially presented with diarrhea and nausea one or two days prior to development of fever and labored breathing."

 

"The first US patient diagnosed with 2019-nCoV also experienced loose bowel movements for two days and the virus was subsequently detected in his stool"

 

""Importantly, 2019-nCoV has been reported elsewhere in the feces of patients with atypical abdominal symptoms, similar to SARS which was also shed in urine, suggesting a fecal transmission route which is highly transmissible,"

 

"Fecal spread could present new challenges to the virus's containment, but is more likely to be a problem inside hospitals, which can become "amplifiers" of epidemics"

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chengkp75]

Thank you.  Still requires a fecal to oral cross-contamination, so those practicing normal quarantine hand hygiene should have no problem with this transmission method.  But, then again, since the CDC has stated that there is virtually no chance of transmission through the ship's AC system, it must be transmitted between cabins by toilet aerosols, right?

[ilikeanswers]

2 hours ago, Ava79 said:

You're right that these cases are not all we an know but really why so dramatic? For example I heard that only two cases of coronavirus in Russia ended quite good - ill people (citizens of China if I remember it right) were released from hospitals.

 

Actually it sounds like in Russia people are panicking😂:

 

People Reportedly Escape Coronavirus Quarantines in Russia

 

[chengkp75]

And you think that folks under a two week forced quarantine won't think about changing their habits?  And, the quarantine keeps people from using public toilets, there is no buffet for cross-contamination, so at most one person in a cabin could contaminate the others in the same cabin.

[perditax]

Even the stock market knows that this is going to be plateauing soon.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-shrug-off-carnivals-coronavirus-warning-to-trade-higher-2020-02-12