Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[bluesea321]

24 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

I think your opinion and Chengkp75's opinions are optimistic if not naive.  You assumed standard ventilation system when you don't know what the ventilation system of this particular ship.  You assumed a lot in unprecedented situation.

 

I agree with you. For whatever it is worth (not much I know) I am a Mechanical Engineer with a Ph.D. in Fluid and Heat Transfer however I would not pretend to know the actual ventilation system on this particular ship as I obviously have not seen it. Ship technology is rapidly evolving, what was usual or typical in the past may no longer be the norm.

 

I found this article from RCCL describing their new Smart Ship technology. They are now recirculating air and Princess may be doing the same, no way to know from this end.

 

"So we’re trying to minimize energy cost in any way we can without jeopardizing the comfort of our passengers. One way is recirculating the air inside the ship instead of venting it outside, as had been the practice." 

https://www.rclcorporate.com/a-chill-in-the-air/

Edited February 9, 2020 by bluesea321

[dickinson]

4 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

And I bet his next cruise will be for free or for a pretty decent rate. Or be advanced up the loyalty card order.. He could be pushing for a brand ambassador gig perhaps. Not soft is he?. He could either have been complaining as a first timer or played it this way to his advantage in the long run.

 

Or he could be like lots of people.... not complainers and not looking for something for free.

[Outerdog]

12 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

And I bet his next cruise will be for free or for a pretty decent rate. Or be advanced up the loyalty card order.. He could be pushing for a brand ambassador gig perhaps. Not soft is he?. He could either have been complaining as a first timer or played it this way to his advantage in the long run.

 

Nothing quite like trying to find that angle while facing death!

[ar1950]

44 minutes ago, kent9xxx1 said:

 

I think your opinion and Chengkp75's opinions are optimistic if not naive.  You assumed standard ventilation system when you don't know what the ventilation system of this particular ship.  You assumed a lot in unprecedented situation.  

The point is the Japanese government should have done better.  Soon, a lot more of them will get it.  

 

FWIW, the Diamond is an older ship. It first sailed in 2004.

[bluesea321]

9 minutes ago, ar1950 said:

FWIW, the Diamond is an older ship. It first sailed in 2004.

 

Yes but it was heavily retrofitted in June 2017 and then refurbished in 2019.

Edited February 9, 2020 by bluesea321

[NorthwestCruiser]

Honestly I would not worry about cabin air that much, we are dealing with a pretty normal sort of virus and keeping viruses from spreading on cruise ships is probably #3 on the designer's requirements list after "don't sink" and "don't catch fire."   From the SARS epidemic it seems that surfaces are the greater concern, areas around cabins with infected people and elevators seem to be hotspots.

[flowery]

I admire David Abel and his wife's good humor, patience and wit but I hope someone will go to bat for them and all the rest stuck on the ship.

 

I can't imagine any independent infectious disease consultant recommending that the staff prepare food, serve it and continue to work on the ship rather than be in isolation themselves.

 

Now that the infection is spreading among the staff, are meals being prepared off site? Who is serving the meals? 

[ed01106]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

And I bet his next cruise will be for free or for a pretty decent rate. Or be advanced up the loyalty card order.. He could be pushing for a brand ambassador gig perhaps. Not soft is he?. He could either have been complaining as a first timer or played it this way to his advantage in the long run.

I pretty sure everyone on board is going to get their next cruise free.  This disaster definitely rises to the level that gets full refund plus 100% FCC

[OzKiwiJJ]

5 hours ago, voljeep said:

I see a surge in balcony pricing … coming soon

And amazing bargains on inside cabins?

[Aus Traveller]

3 hours ago, Outerdog said:

I don't know about that. Your statement relies on the quarantine policy being adhered to 100%.

 

Some of the pictures and video shown recently clearly indicate violations of (what are believed to be) the quarantine guidelines. Shown are people wearing no masks, no gloves, and gathering in close proximity to one another.

 

It's likely the photos that show people in close proximity to one another were of people on their balcony.

[kathy49]

3 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

It's likely the photos that show people in close proximity to one another were of people on their balcony.

No there was a video of the walking on deck with passengers embracing other people (probaby family) and one lady looked to be without mask talking on the phone...sorry but with that many passengers and crew violations are going to happen.

[Aus Traveller]

2 hours ago, NorthwestCruiser said:

The ship is a miniature version of the problem that the entire world is going to be facing pretty soon.   There is an interesting article on pandemic communication (written during the "swine flu" pandemic) that makes the point that we can really only mitigate a flu like this, not contain it -- and that promises to contain the epidemic simply cause people to distrust the experts when those promises are not kept.  (Containment vs mitigation)   It is pretty clear that in China and on the ship containment has failed, and it is pretty clear from our understanding so far of how the virus is transmitted that containment will fail.    That is a bitter pill to swallow but it is better to come to terms with it now rather than panicking later and distrusting everything.    The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

Why would you assume containment of the virus on the ship has failed? The Japanese Ministry of Health has stated that the 41 positive test results were all from the original sampling. They only tested people they believed were at risk. Obviously several more people had contracted the virus and there is no reason to believe that this was other than the period before the quarantine was put in place. There is also no reason to believe that the containment is not working.

[Aus Traveller]

2 hours ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

This is news to me.  Is it because it was a cruise in Asia?  

And, since this is no longer a cruise but now a floating quarantined hotel in which no passenger payment is involved, are they still getting those gratuities? 

All the crew have a guaranteed income. For the stewards and accommodation staff, a major part of this comes from the tips pool. That does not stop just because gratuities are no longer flowing to the pool from one ship in the fleet. Their income is guaranteed and if the tips pool is 'short', then Princess has to make up the difference.

[npcl]

3 hours ago, Outerdog said:

 

Take another look.

 

pic.twitter.com/mgqaxQpRG7

 

 

They are staying apart, one person did stop for a little, but then resumed separation. They are all wearing masks so they are not passing the virus via respiration.  They are not physically contacting. 

 

[OzKiwiJJ]

4 minutes ago, npcl said:

They are staying apart, one person did stop for a little, but then resumed separation. They are all wearing masks so they are not passing the virus via respiration.  They are not physically contacting. 

 

Also from what David Abel said a couple of days ago there is a 30 minute gap between each group being allowed out on  the deck which presumably gives the crew time to sanitize any surfaces passengers may have touched - handrails, seats etc.

[bluesea321]

8 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

Why would you assume containment of the virus on the ship has failed? The Japanese Ministry of Health has stated that the 41 positive test results were all from the original sampling. They only tested people they believed were at risk. Obviously several more people had contracted the virus and there is no reason to believe that this was other than the period before the quarantine was put in place. There is also no reason to believe that the containment is not working.

 

Old data. The infected count is now 70.

"The six new coronavirus cases on the Diamond Princess brought the total to 70 since the Japanese health authorities began testing people on the ship last week. New cases have been announced almost daily, and passengers have grown increasingly fearful that the quarantine — meant to protect people in Japan and contain the virus’s spread — could be putting them in jeopardy."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/japan-ship-coronavirus.html

 

Also on the NYT article:

"A spokesperson for Princess Cruises said the ship was equipped with a filtration system that meets the standards and is comparable to those found in land-based hotels, resorts and casinos.”

 

And we know how well those filtration systems on resorts and casinos work, right?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/08/norovirus-outbreak-virus-louisiana-casino-leaves-least-200-sick/4699951002/

 

[helpmesailaway]

2 hours ago, bluesea321 said:

 

I agree with you. For whatever it is worth (not much I know) I am a Mechanical Engineer with a Ph.D. in Fluid and Heat Transfer however I would not pretend to know the actual ventilation system on this particular ship as I obviously have not seen it. Ship technology is rapidly evolving, what was usual or typical in the past may no longer be the norm.

 

I found this article from RCCL describing their new Smart Ship technology. They are now recirculating air and Princess may be doing the same, no way to know from this end.

 

"So we’re trying to minimize energy cost in any way we can without jeopardizing the comfort of our passengers. One way is recirculating the air inside the ship instead of venting it outside, as had been the practice." 

https://www.rclcorporate.com/a-chill-in-the-air/

 

I REALLY don't like the sounds of "recirculating air" but then again I don't know anything a about it.  Is the recirculated air cleansed in some way before reciruculation?  If not, it sounds like a way for viruses to meet up with everyone on the ship😷

[OzKiwiJJ]

5 minutes ago, helpmesailaway said:

 

I REALLY don't like the sounds of "recirculating air" but then again I don't know anything a about it.  Is the recirculated air cleansed in some way before reciruculation?  If not, it sounds like a way for viruses to meet up with everyone on the ship😷

@chengkp75 did state on another thread:

"Public space AC is similar to the cabin system, with a fresh air supply and an exhaust, but the majority of the AC is recirculated, but again this is broken down by zones and spaces (no AC ducting ever crosses a fire zone boundary, each zone has it's own systems), so if infected persons are in the public spaces, their "air" will be recirculated in those public spaces. However, the air handlers for these public spaces, along with the air handlers for the cabin fresh air supplies, all have sanitizing pads in the bottom to kill bacteria and viruses in the air duct systems."

[OzKiwiJJ]

3 minutes ago, Pushka said:

And such systems are vulnerable to Legionnaires disease so clearly there is some kind of general airflow in air conditioned buildings. 

The impression I'm getting is that the AC on a ship is far more sophisticated than in office buildings etc.

[brisalta]

Just now, OzKiwiJJ said:

The impression I'm getting is that the AC on a ship is far more sophisticated than in office buildings etc.

 

It depend on the office building. The HVAC in a LEED platinum rated building is very sophisticated.

[helpmesailaway]

1 minute ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

@chengkp75 did state on another thread:

"Public space AC is similar to the cabin system, with a fresh air supply and an exhaust, but the majority of the AC is recirculated, but again this is broken down by zones and spaces (no AC ducting ever crosses a fire zone boundary, each zone has it's own systems), so if infected persons are in the public spaces, their "air" will be recirculated in those public spaces. However, the air handlers for these public spaces, along with the air handlers for the cabin fresh air supplies, all have sanitizing pads in the bottom to kill bacteria and viruses in the air duct systems."

 

Thank you so much for explaining some of this.

 

 I hope those "sanitizing" pads are  working at all times!!!!!  

[brisalta]

3 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

@chengkp75 did state on another thread:

"Public space AC is similar to the cabin system, with a fresh air supply and an exhaust, but the majority of the AC is recirculated, but again this is broken down by zones and spaces (no AC ducting ever crosses a fire zone boundary, each zone has it's own systems), so if infected persons are in the public spaces, their "air" will be recirculated in those public spaces. However, the air handlers for these public spaces, along with the air handlers for the cabin fresh air supplies, all have sanitizing pads in the bottom to kill bacteria and viruses in the air duct systems."

 

That explains the pads that were being changed out in the ducting in the ceiling of the passageways of the Grand last September/October.

[bluesea321]

3 minutes ago, helpmesailaway said:

I hope those "sanitizing" pads are  working at all times!!!!!  

 

If a "sanitizing" pad was all that was needed to contain this virus we would not be having this tragedy, would we!

[npcl]

3 hours ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Hmm... there is no way to know that. You are making the assumption that the quarantine has been 100% effective but even in hospitals that is not the case.

 

"One patient, admitted to a hospital in Wuhan, China, infected at least 10 health care workers and four other patients with the coronavirus... The case was just one disturbing detail in a new report on 138 patients in Wuhan that helps explain how the illness progresses and how it spreads."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/08/health/coronavirus-hospital-infections-frieden/index.html

Nope based upon timing.  As far as the Chinese hospitals, not surprised.  In the early days of the outbreak you did not have good notification of even the medical staff that the outbreak was in process.  Note the physician getting taken to the police for rumor spreading when he tried to warn other medical staff that something was not right.  As a result little isolation under normal practices.  Just think of your local hospital during normal operations. If there was not adequate warning of an outbreak how do you think they would do.  People intermixed in the emergency room. Most people, staff and patients wandering through hallways and to rooms, not in protective gear, etc. Later on they just plain got overwhelmed.

 

Do you have any proof that they did catch it on board? I have worked with MHW in the past.  They tend to be both qualified and competent (which many here are assuming they are not). If so then much of what people have raised here would have been considered and investigated by them.  They want this over just as much as the people of board do

 

Even with the flu you get as high as Ro12 in an institutional environment, compared to its normal 2 or so.  Considering that the initial individual was on board from 1/20 to 1/25. We have just reached the end of the period for those he directly infected to show.   The quarantine start Feb 4. The 14 days period from the initial person was Feb 8.  What you will see now are those infected by the people that the initial person infected.  Figuring at the high end that he infected 12 and each of those infected 12, I would not be surprised to see the case total to break 100, maybe as high as 150 before it is all over. Just from infections prior to the quarantine period 

 

Then I expect that On Jan 19 as indicated by the Japanese Minister of Health the quarantine will end for the majority. Call them cohort 1.  You can call a second group Cohort 2 which will be those sharing a cabin with anyone that developed symptoms after the Quarantine started on May 4.  That may each be extended based upon their last contact with their infected cabin mate. Because the ship is operating there is probably a Cohort 3 which is crew members not needed for ship operation which are most likely in isolation just like the passengers.  That would leave those minimum crew members needed to operate the ship, and therefore not currently in isolation for Cohort 4. Would expect after the 19th for the ship to remain isolated after the passengers leave. If any of cohort 4, the working crew, were to show symptoms before the 19th, then I would expect at least some section of Cohort 4 to go into a quarantine period. Even though they are working I suspect that they are somewhat isolated when not on shift and that contacts would be tracked.  If none of those in cohort 4 develop symptoms during the current quarantine then they would not need to go into quarantine.

 

That would leave the only group which should be quarantined for sure after being those who had cabin mates that developed symptoms after Feb 4.

 

That would actually match both the MHW statement and the WHO statement.  MHW talking about the passengers,  WHO talking about the ship as a whole. As compared to the interpretation of the WHO statement that an extension for one set means an extension for all on board.

 

 

 

 

[OzFactotem]

I just dropped in this thread to see what the passengers on board experienced, or experiencing, and their morale in the circumstances. However the postings I managed to view are all from those of us who are concerned but not actually on the ship.

 

There is an old Chinese saying, not from Confucious,........Viewing the fire from across the river!!!!😥