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Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

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27 minutes ago, Psoque said:

I'm not on board Diamond Princess,  and I am not privy to all of the information regarding all of the passengers/crew onboard, but if there is a very good evidence that more people were newly exposed and infected (these are two different things, by the way) by this virus after the quarantine started, they may have to first consider extending the quarantine.  Just testing everyone (and yes, even those who recovered from the illness) for the virus, not just the antibody against it (since a typical coronavirus is known to often re-infect the same person without a huge mutation), is neither feasible or even reliable, since there will be enough false positive results when we test that many people with low pre-test probability...and there is bound to be a lot of false negative results if the person is just infected...but I'm using too many medical jargons.

 

Good, then we can agree that Japan is doing the right thing keeping this contained.

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1 minute ago, kathy49 said:

boy i don't think extending this quarantine is really the solution  here...what are they just going to wait until everyone gets it? That meal prep not being handled off ship was a bad mistake.

 

But they may have no choice but extend the quarantine. According to the Japan Times the Prime Minister is advocating the testing of all pax and crew before they disembark.

 

"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday said that the government will bolster testing capabilities for those on the cruise ship to about 1,000 samples per day. Health minister Katsunobu Kato said the government is contemplating testing all passengers and crew members."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/national/science-health/40-new-coronavirus-cases-cruise-ship-quarantined-japan/#.XkRipBNKjPA

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Just now, bluesea321 said:

 

But they may have no choice but extend the quarantine. According to the Japan Times the Prime Minister is advocating the testing of all pax and crew before they disembark.

 

"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday said that the government will bolster testing capabilities for those on the cruise ship to about 1,000 samples per day. Health minister Katsunobu Kato said the government is contemplating testing all passengers and crew members."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/national/science-health/40-new-coronavirus-cases-cruise-ship-quarantined-japan/#.XkRipBNKjPA

Yes if they test everyone I can't help but think many more are positive...many...so then what to do? I guess stay on the ship...but it is simply not working and I think there are many reasons....not following protocol from day one (probably no one's fault I mean who is prepared for this) and crew probably should have no contact with passengers at all.  I realize none of this will happen.

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2 hours ago, kathy49 said:

yep those flu shots this year really missed the mark...and the one that hit was ugly

Do you have a reference for your statement "those the flu shots for this year really missed the mark"?  This is not my understanding of the relationship between the 2019-2020 vaccine and the 2019-2020 flu observed in the US thus far this flu season.  The four strains in this year's flu shot are

  • The A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine component (updated from an A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus to an A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus)
  • The A(H3N2) vaccine component (updated from an A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 A(H3N2)-like virus to an A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus)
  • Both B/Victoria and B/Yamagata virus components (the ones from the 2018-2019 remain the same for the 2019-2020 flu vaccine)

For the US 2019-2020 flu season, we are seeing have been about 60% B, 40% A this year, a higher portion of B than in the recent past. The B strains we have seen have been more than 95%  B/Victoria. (Some people who had the flu shot have still caught B/Victoria; the shot is not 100% effective.)  The A strain being seen most (mostly in adults and seniors) has been the A(H1N1)pdm09

 

My information comes from the CDC:

What is in the vaccine: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

What is being observed: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

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One of the crew sites had numerous complaints that crew members who decided to take time off when the quarantine is lifted were going to be terminated. This letter from Princess seems to say that the crew can take two months off without violating their current contracts.  Good for Princess!

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3 minutes ago, SnowCrocus said:

Do you have a reference for your statement "those the flu shots for this year really missed the mark"?  This is not my understanding of the relationship between the 2019-2020 vaccine and the 2019-2020 flu observed in the US thus far this flu season.  The four strains in this year's flu shot are

  • The A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine component (updated from an A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus to an A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus)
  • The A(H3N2) vaccine component (updated from an A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 A(H3N2)-like virus to an A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus)
  • Both B/Victoria and B/Yamagata virus components (the ones from the 2018-2019 remain the same for the 2019-2020 flu vaccine)

For the US 2019-2020 flu season, we are seeing have been about 60% B, 40% A this year, a higher portion of B than in the recent past. The B strains we have seen have been more than 95%  B/Victoria. (Some people who had the flu shot have still caught B/Victoria; the shot is not 100% effective.)  The A strain being seen most (mostly in adults and seniors) has been the A(H1N1)pdm09

 

My information comes from the CDC:

What is in the vaccine: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

What is being observed: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

not at all interested in discussing the flu...just mentioned from personal experience and that of many friends here in US. Also I spoke with a Dr. that agreed based on what they are seeing. Just personal opinion...no medical documentation at all.

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40 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

4. Place a request to the nearest US Military base for 10,000 MREs until an off ship catering system can be put in place.  Not exactly fine dining but better than spreading disease.  And I am sure such a humanitarian request would be honored.

I like the idea, but is it feasible?

 

That gets you almost one day of food. They'd need more than 150K for the two week period. I have no idea how much of that the military has on hand, if it's available to sell to Princess, nor how complicated it would be to get the PAX a list of offerings and have everyone send it in, get it compiled, prepped for distro, etc.

 

The entire thing is a logistical nightmare. Hopefully some best practices can be developed after this is over. Lots of lessons being learned.  Mistakes get made when you venture into the unknown.

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2 hours ago, kathy49 said:

I think they have to test every one.  I have to wonder if they are getting financial assistance from the respective governments involved.  They should be. I am sure he is getting pressure from each government too.

I read somewhere that the Japanese government see their handling of this situation as some kind of thanks to the international community for their help in the Fukushima meltdown.

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3 hours ago, NorthwestCruiser said:

 "What happens in China and their hospitals does not necessarily represent "our" cruising world"

 

Let's not fool ourselves.   The hospitals in Wuhan are (were) excellent and on par with anything in the United States, except probably newer than most.   China hasn't just been sitting on all of the money that they have been making from world trade, and if you think that Chinese people are not just as smart, dedicated, and just as likely to be good doctors as people in any other country, well I don't know what to say.    I'd like to see the state of Washington employees try to build a working hospital in 10 days...

 

  

 

Not necessarily true at all.  Most of what they are calling hospitals for people with the corona virus are nothing more than converted warehouses / arenas with beds 2 feet apart and no sophisticated medical equipment.  The "hospital" they built in 10 days is essentially the same thing - a warehousing facility to house everyone who is sick in order to try and contain the disease.  That 10 day "hospital" has no equipment / etc like a regular hospital

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5 minutes ago, Maverick61 said:

 

Not necessarily true at all.  Most of what they are calling hospitals for people with the corona virus are nothing more than converted warehouses / arenas with beds 2 feet apart and no sophisticated medical equipment.  The "hospital" they built in 10 days is essentially the same thing - a warehousing facility to house everyone who is sick in order to try and contain the disease.  That 10 day "hospital" has no equipment / etc like a regular hospital

Exactly.  The new "hospitals" are pretty much pop up pre-fab's structures.  They don't even have plumbing.  They have hundreds of porta potties lined up outside.  As you stated.  Pretty much just holding facilities. 

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20 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

That is horrifying - the people you know who were on the Pearl who had Noro didn't report it because they didn't want to be confined to their cabin. Sorry to say - but that is how it spreads through a ship.

Yes, I asked them about that. I know that they are a family of health care workers who always bring prescription meds on trips.  Among the family are three doctors and one pharmacist. They told me to be assured that those who were sick could not and would not leave the cabin. And they knew that their illness was not transmitted through the air. But, I was not on that ship so I can't tell others what to do. And I am not in the health care field. Also, we have gone to the ships doctor when we needed to.

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53 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

4. Place a request to the nearest US Military base for 10,000 MREs until an off ship catering system can be put in place.  Not exactly fine dining but better than spreading disease.  And I am sure such a humanitarian request would be honored.

How are you going to cope with dietary requirements let alone covbering religious and other beliefs.

 

Who is going to deliver them?

 

Who is going to prepare them?

 

Also exposing the delivery team o possible infection.

 

Bad idea and bad solution.

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53 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

boy i don't think extending this quarantine is really the solution  here...what are they just going to wait until everyone gets it? That meal prep not being handled off ship was a bad mistake.

 

That is where this is headed.  I would wager people are not getting off the ship on 2/19

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David Abel got his requested breakfast and I got message from Princess telling me he did. Amazing. 

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As I keep following this thread, it raises more questions for me.  So if patient "0" was the initial carrier, was diagnosed and then removed from the ship and all were quarantined.  I a perfect confinement, none of the other people on board would have any contact with others and the threat would pass after the incubation period.  along the way, others develop the virus from the initial exposure and each is removed from the ship by outsiders in "moon suits" for treatment.  However, we do know that this is not how it worked.

 

So on day 1 of the outbreak, those infected are removed for treatment.  passengers are confined to cabins.  Crew continue to move about the ship in various capacities.  Food is delivered, "experts" monitored the confined passengers and more infected persons are discovered.  They are removed for treatment.  This pattern continues.  As each new case is diagnosed, wouldn't they have been infected and a "carrier" is mingling with fellow passengers before the quarantine.  (The theory that once exposed, they are "infected" and do not manifest symptoms for 14 days) 

 

So case "0" was exhibiting symptoms when quarantine started.  Now, some 10 or 11 days later, a new case is diagnosed.  Well that person likely was among everyone prior to quarantine.  They have interacted with those bringing the food, exchanging lines or testing.  The infection can continue to spread.

 

Is the quarantine having the desired effect or has the Diamond become an incubator? 

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1 minute ago, dog said:

David Abel got his requested breakfast and I got message from Princess telling me he did. Amazing. 

 

I am glad for David but how about the others who don't have a Facebook channel - they are elderly with needs also. Princess is doing a good job for David because he is publishing several times a day and they want the good comments.

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Diamond princess test results

 

Out of 53 new test results, 39 people were found positive,” Japan’s health minister, Katsunobu Kato, told reporters, adding that four passengers diagnosed earlier were in a serious condition. Kato said in parliament that he wanted to expand testing to all passengers and crew onboard, and that authorities could muster resources to do more than 1,000 tests a day.

 

So 39/53 = %75.   Damn.   😪

 

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3 minutes ago, zonacruiser25 said:

Is the quarantine having the desired effect or has the Diamond become an incubator? 

 

That is the 64,000 dollar question, they just don't know. They have tested a very small number of pax/crew and everyday we get new infections. Not encouraging. 

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3 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

I am glad for David but how about the others who don't have a Facebook channel - they are elderly with needs also. Princess is doing a good job for David because he is publishing several times a day and they want the good comments.

Very kind of you. Princess mentioned all guests have menus to make their requests. 

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16 minutes ago, G.M.T. said:

How are you going to cope with dietary requirements let alone covbering religious and other beliefs.

 

Who is going to deliver them?

 

Who is going to prepare them?

 

Also exposing the delivery team o possible infection.

 

Bad idea and bad solution.

MRE don’t need to be prepared.  There are vegetarian, kosher and halal versions.  The USA would bring them on pallets to the dock, the crew staff could distribute them.  But they would be sealed so almost zero risk of infection if the waiter had the disease.  Would involve much less work for crew and reduce the risk of transmission significantly. 

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3 hours ago, Kmkub said:

Nobody on shore was prepared on day one to prepare 10K meals every day

I mean, they’re not off the coast of some third world country, they’re off the coast of Japan.  I am quite confident that it isn’t that hard to hire a vendor or vendors that can prepare 10k meals per day relatively quickly.  It might be expensive, but given the situation, that shouldn’t be what is determinative here.  

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1 minute ago, Fido Chuckwagon said:

I mean, they’re not off the coast of some third world country, they’re off the coast of Japan.  I am quite confident that it isn’t that hard to hire a vendor or vendors that can prepare 10k meals per day relatively quickly.  It might be expensive, but given the situation, that shouldn’t be what is determinative here.  

I guess since Tokyo is gearing up for the Olympics this year they could have some resources that could be "tested" to make this happen

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14 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

I am glad for David but how about the others who don't have a Facebook channel - they are elderly with needs also. Princess is doing a good job for David because he is publishing several times a day and they want the good comments.

yes agree....some other tweets etc. indicate people have asked to be tested and no action for 2 days and someone is sick...others different stories...lack of meds. etc.  Not everyone is doing great and DAvid should never have had to go to the extent he did to get a medically required diet.

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