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Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"


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15 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

The more alarmist death rates in UK media say 400,000 will die in UK alone. With a mortality rate of 1% that argues that 40 million will become infected in a country of 66 million. That would be an infection rate of 2  in 3. That is highly unlikely.

That may be your view but experts would disagree, and are predicting infection rates of around 50%.  Of no concern to most people, unless you’re old or have existing health issues. 1-2% is a very small percentage, but it’s a large number out of 30 million.

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34 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

That may be your view but experts would disagree, and are predicting infection rates of around 50%.  Of no concern to most people, unless you’re old or have existing health issues. 1-2% is a very small percentage, but it’s a large number out of 30 million.

What experts? This sounds like pure scare mongering, or by taking some worst-case scenario and presenting is a most likely model. 

 

For now, the number of new cases has somewhat slowed, and outside of China the death rate as of now is miniscule (5 out of 1346 infected). 

 

There are really no signs pointing to the outbreak affecting 50% of the world´s population, or even close to those numbers.

 

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37 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

That may be your view but experts would disagree, and are predicting infection rates of around 50%.  Of no concern to most people, unless you’re old or have existing health issues. 1-2% is a very small percentage, but it’s a large number out of 30 million.

You may want to read this somewhat dated assessment of the risk for transportation.  The risk is for the disease to be transported out of the China quarantine area. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0146_article

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https://www.wral.com/14-passengers-on-us-charter-flights-evacuating-the-diamond-princess-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus/18956694/

 

"After consultation with HHS officials, including experts from the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, the State Department made the decision to allow the 14 individuals, who were in isolation, separated from other passengers, and continued to be asymptomatic, to remain on the aircraft to complete the evacuation process," the agencies said.

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49 minutes ago, tailspintom said:

You may want to read this somewhat dated assessment of the risk for transportation.  The risk is for the disease to be transported out of the China quarantine area. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0146_article

I would say that the question under consideration by that article has been answered.  

 

We are used to scare headlines for "clickbait" and there is a lot of nonsense out there (no it is not a bioweapon and people are not suddenly falling in the streets), but COVID19 is a significant threat that has serious people concerned.   The WHO does not declare a PHEIC lightly.   Looking at the cruise ship, the question of how infectious the disease has been answered pretty conclusively, %60 infection rate may be on the low side.   (If everybody stayed on the ship for three months how many do you think would be infected?)    Highly infectious viruses are not something out of science fiction as any cruiser knows.   Those handwashing stations are for a reason.

 

It is unlikely to be contained because it appears to have the perfect properties to spread -- it is a great example of evolution (of coronaviruses) in action.    SARS was less infectious (apparently) and we were able to stop it, this one slips through our defenses.   Unless we get a technological fix soon it will be here.   

 

What we don't really know is how is how bad it will be for the general population, symptoms seem to range from an annoying cold to fatal.   Most people (high %80s)  survive but it has killed relatively young healthy people, however old people have survived it too.  It, is certainly worse for you than cell phone use, GMO foods, mercury in fish, or living next to power lines.   It is certainly a time to quit smoking or vaping.   It would probably be a good idea to have a months of supplies at least on hand in case you end up quarantined.

 

 

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2 hours ago, zonacruiser25 said:

I for one will pay attention to those that had insurance and how it worked or did not work.  That will be valuable in determining what to do for my next cruise.  I agree that including insurance as a perk might be a brilliant marketing maneuver going forward.  

As even Princess has said, most travel insurance doesn't cover this type of event.  In almost all cases, the only insurance that would probably cover people would be "cancel for any reason" insurance.  But even that has restrictions and stipulations.  Personally I buy travel insurance for med evac and emergency medical benefits.  Those can run in the tens of thousands of dollars.  Anything else is a nice benefit, but not why I mainly buy travel insurance.

 

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29 minutes ago, muggo11 said:

Carnival Corp is a house of brands, not a branded house. Each cruise line under the umbrella operates autonomously in myriad ways.  

Not exactly. You would be amazed at how combined some areas are.

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22 minutes ago, frugaltravel said:

As even Princess has said, most travel insurance doesn't cover this type of event.  

 

My cruise insurance covers anything that was out of my control. We didn't get the "any reason insurance."

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17 minutes ago, cruiserchuck said:

It is being reported that the planes used to evacuate the folks from the Diamond Princess are now in Omaha, unloading patients.  It sounds like the passengers who tested positive may have been moved to a different facility.

 

I live near here. We have an amazing facility at University of Nebraska Medical Center that has dealt with Ebola victims in the past. It has a Biocontainment and Isolation Unit here and staff are trained to deal with this (they volunteer for this unit).

 

https://www.omaha.com/news/local/americans-possibly-exposed-to-coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-taken-to/article_0c9c09f9-a6ff-5b83-8a59-6cf3a0b2041e.html 

 

We currently have 54 people from Wuhan about 30 minutes from here (Camp Ashland). So far, no one has tested positive for Coronovirus at Camp Ashland. They go off quarantine Thursday or Friday.

Edited by Coral
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2 hours ago, Andrisk123 said:

What experts? This sounds like pure scare mongering, or by taking some worst-case scenario and presenting is a most likely model. 

 

For now, the number of new cases has somewhat slowed, and outside of China the death rate as of now is miniscule (5 out of 1346 infected). 

 

There are really no signs pointing to the outbreak affecting 50% of the world´s population, or even close to those numbers.

 

What experts?  How about this one:

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson

 

Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert in infectious diseases from Imperial College London, takes the view that new cases of the virus could still rise and that the world is in the “early phases of a global pandemic”. He estimates that around 60% of the UK population in such a situation could be affected, which if the mortality rate was 1% could result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/coronavirus-medical-chief-says-uk-hopes-to-delay-any-outbreak-until-summer

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1 hour ago, NorthwestCruiser said:

I would say that the question under consideration by that article has been answered.  

 

We are used to scare headlines for "clickbait" and there is a lot of nonsense out there (no it is not a bioweapon and people are not suddenly falling in the streets), but COVID19 is a significant threat that has serious people concerned.   The WHO does not declare a PHEIC lightly.   Looking at the cruise ship, the question of how infectious the disease has been answered pretty conclusively, %60 infection rate may be on the low side.   (If everybody stayed on the ship for three months how many do you think would be infected?)    Highly infectious viruses are not something out of science fiction as any cruiser knows.   Those handwashing stations are for a reason.

 

It is unlikely to be contained because it appears to have the perfect properties to spread -- it is a great example of evolution (of coronaviruses) in action.    SARS was less infectious (apparently) and we were able to stop it, this one slips through our defenses.   Unless we get a technological fix soon it will be here.   

 

What we don't really know is how is how bad it will be for the general population, symptoms seem to range from an annoying cold to fatal.   Most people (high %80s)  survive but it has killed relatively young healthy people, however old people have survived it too.  It, is certainly worse for you than cell phone use, GMO foods, mercury in fish, or living next to power lines.   It is certainly a time to quit smoking or vaping.   It would probably be a good idea to have a months of supplies at least on hand in case you end up quarantined.

 

 

I have them stored in my bomb shelter while I wait for Armageddon.

 

Glenn

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7 minutes ago, timbom said:

Joke all you want but the more we can delay the spread out of asia the greater our chances are of developing a vaccine against it.

Here’s my take on it...

First of all, I’m 60 years old. I’m currently recovering from heart surgery because my heart stopped and I was “dead” for 43 seconds. So I don’t fear death. I’m not sure why I just told you this but it might have something to do with the story. 
Ever since I can remember, there have been people predicting the demise of the world, be it the world is ending, climate change, nuclear holocaust, biblical prophecy, widespread disease, famine, and the list goes on and on. 
I'm tired of listening to the propaganda about the destruction of society as we know it. So some “expert” publicly says bad things and people gobble that up like it’s gospel. That’s laughable to me. Fear mongering is NOT helpful to anyone. 
 

Glenn

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I have been reading about this situation for a few weeks now.  How any reasonable company (Princess/Carnival), or country (Japan), can quarantine passengers on a ship, but not quarantine the ship staff makes no sense what so ever.  The ship indeed is a 'Hot Spot',  and people should have been evacuated long before it reached the point it did to a proper facility.  Hopefully now the US Passengers will be treated and cared for in a proper manner, as directed by the CDC.

 

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4 hours ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Is this a legitimate concern? I thought these people would be isolated, and not coming into any contact with the local populace, no?

I’m waffling on whether it is a valid concern but it depends a bit on how sure we really are about the 14 day period and details on how they are transported for medical care. My parents certainly fall into the high risk category and being retired military living in SA I am pretty sure the constant appts for my dad’s heart are in Wilford Hall on Lackland.

And my mom will be flying through the SA airport along with people released from quarantine. 
So it’s a concern on the back of my mind... valid? Maybe. Maybe not. But a concerning thought nonetheless. 

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39 minutes ago, Grburkart said:

Here’s my take on it...

First of all, I’m 60 years old. I’m currently recovering from heart surgery because my heart stopped and I was “dead” for 43 seconds. So I don’t fear death. I’m not sure why I just told you this but it might have something to do with the story. 
Ever since I can remember, there have been people predicting the demise of the world, be it the world is ending, climate change, nuclear holocaust, biblical prophecy, widespread disease, famine, and the list goes on and on. 
I'm tired of listening to the propaganda about the destruction of society as we know it. So some “expert” publicly says bad things and people gobble that up like it’s gospel. That’s laughable to me. Fear mongering is NOT helpful to anyone. 
 

Glenn

When one considers that even the national health authorities are talking about the travel restrictions and quarantines as delaying the spread, instead of  stopping the spread. That 1 month ago most had not even heard of the outbreak and that there were 4 identified cases outside of China on 1/20 compared to 1300 today.  At that same time China had 278 identified cases. compared to over 70,000 today.  Discussing the potential threat and risks of this outbreak is not fear mongering, but more a practical realization of just how far and wide this could spread. While for most people it will be like a bad cold, the impact if it does spread will be fairly traumatic while that spread is taking place.

 

Not the end of the world, but not exactly fun either. It does raise the question if one wants to be out traveling if the spread continues, or be close to home and support systems.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Coochuck said:

I have been reading about this situation for a few weeks now.  How any reasonable company (Princess/Carnival), or country (Japan), can quarantine passengers on a ship, but not quarantine the ship staff makes no sense what so ever.  The ship indeed is a 'Hot Spot',  and people should have been evacuated long before it reached the point it did to a proper facility.  Hopefully now the US Passengers will be treated and cared for in a proper manner, as directed by the CDC.

 

 

The problem is the scale of the issue.   

 

I don't think it matters if it is the CDC or the Japanese equivalent of the CDC.  These organisations are not setup to handle several thousand potentially infected people just magically appearing.   It takes time to put the response in motion.

 

The proper tests for this illness takes 2-3 days to perform.  A number of the patients in hospital in Japan are saying they fell fine.  There are lots of theories floating around about the ventilation system and pluming.  Could some of the crew preparing meals have been infected? In the coming weeks and months the root cause analysis will figure this all out.  That will help inform the decision making on the next cruise ship that encounters in the problem.

 

The Japanese learned their lesson on this one.  When the second ship showed up on its shores that was potentially infected, it turned it away.  The US also turned it away from docking in one of its ports in Guam.  

 

Edited by em-sk
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Why did US break Diamond Princess coronavirus quarantine? "Something went awry" according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/17/coronavirus-official-explains-diamond-princess-cruise-quarantine-fail/4785290002/

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5 hours ago, chilis said:

 

and seeing the offer they made to their workers,

 

Offer was to pay base salary for two months (not full pay)

For those on the contact, they wud have to pay that any way when ship is non operable.

 

I, personally, wud not change my opinion on Princess one way or other based on this "offer".

After all, Princess itself did not try to make a big deal out of it.

 

 

But how Princess is teating crew on board right now is terrible

(one can google and form their own opinions)

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