Jump to content

Virus


Ginnan2020
 Share

Recommended Posts

Current UK stats, based on people actually tested ( so not including the huge amount that don’t ever get tested as either a symptomatic or have very mild illness)

 

3,741
Currently Infected Patients
3,721 (99%)
in Mild Condition
20 (1%)
Serious or Critical

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Helengp,

 

I don't have the time to do your research for you.  The figures from the UK are the ones that are spurious and cannot be believed.  They don't match any figures from continental Europe.  The WHO (World Health organization) publishes figures daily. 

 

As of March 19:

UK cases:  2692

UK deaths:  137

UK Recovered:  65

UK active:  2490 

UK serious: 20  Spain serious:  800  France serious: 963  italy serious;  2498

 

Your first error:  COMPARE DEATHS TO RECOVERED, NOT TO TOTAL CASES.  Compare resolved cases to resolved cases.  You resolve a case by either recovering or dying.  Don't compare deaths to cases where the death hasn't happened yet. 

According to this SCIENTIFIC standard, and using UK numbers....the UK death rate is 66% (deaths divided by deaths plus recovered).....you see how bogus these figures are now???  Now look at cases per million.  The UK has 40 cases per million.  Italy has 679 cases per million.  Come back and look at the figures when you have 678 cases per million.  You might just see the death rate spike to 800 a day...which is what Italy reported this morning.

 

Do you really believe you only have 20 serious cases with 137 already dead?????

 

Done.  Your mind is closed. I'm wasting my breath,

T tail

Edited by T Tail
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Replying to T Tail.....

 

Are you working on the frontline in the fight against CV? I am.

All the WHO figures published do not include or take in to account the hundreds of thousands of people with active infections that either give very mild or no symptoms, and are therefore NOT TESTED. So the figure you quote for active infections is way too low. These people will never be counted as either infected or recovered. So the real number of recovered is massively higher than WHO figures. So that brings the death rate right down. The number that is crucial is the ‘serious’ figure...but only when applied to the total of all active infections....the figure we will never know.
 

In the UK we are now only routinely testing people in hospital.....many who are already ill or frail, with other underlying health conditions. It is therefore highly likely that those patients will go on to need critical care and they will possibly die. This fact alone makes all the WHO figures skewed.

 

So in reality the death rate remains tiny, particularly when you also remember that a large percentage of the people who have died were already in a terminal condition or living with a life limiting illness before contracting CV. They would have died soon anyway.

 

Italy also has skewed figures, as it seems they are reporting anyone who dies after testing positive for CV as a CV statistic, even if they were already terminal or had serious life limiting conditions. So you see, you can not compare one country to another, even using WHO stats. 

 

The press would have us believe all hospitals are bursting with CV patients, and that ICUs are already full. That is simply not true. In my hospital we currently have no CV infection, and in the whole county only 11 reported cases. 3 are hospitalised. ICUs are busy...but with people with other intensive needs.
 

Social distancing is now key to stop a rapid spread. Unfortunately, too many people are not taking that seriously. And sadly, more people continue to die of pneumonia caused by bog standard flu or the common cold. And heart disease is still the biggest killer of all.....a day doesn’t go by when I don’t sign my name on a death certificate of someone who has died prematurely. A completely unnecessary situation if people would only look after their health better. 
 

CV is a challenge, and a real worry. It will never be beaten, but we will learn to live with it as we do all the viral diseases we encounter. The longer lasting and more serious effect will be the destroyed economies of many nations.....and the indirect suffering caused by that.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we have more in common than differences.  We both agree that the figures coming out of the UK are bogus.  We also agree that this mass isolation will be worse than the disease itself. 
 

I'll leave you with a post I made in a forum with an Italian from Milan and an article (I don't agree with everything in the article) that projects 10 million dead in the US if we stay the course.

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

"There is no doubt that this is real in Italy. IF the facts as stated are correct (that virtually ALL complications and deaths are in very elderly and/or medically compromised people) then we as a world are approaching this from the wrong direction. We shouldn't isolate and quarantine everyone. Just isolating and quarantining those at risk of severe complications, accomplishes the same result (keeping ICU populations low). When the rest of the population gets herd immunity because they got the disease, then the virus will burn itself out without having to wait for a vaccine. You only need an immunity level (people infected) of 70% to get the R naught below 1. The answer in my mind is isolate those at risk ONLY. Test. Test. Test, and isolate anyone who actually gets the disease. This isolation period for the infected would be for two weeks (while contagious) , not two months, or more (could be up to 5 months), as is current policy in the general population.  This total lockdown stuff has horrific consequences down the road which IS going to eventually cause tens of millions of deaths as food growing slows down, supply chains implode, the world economy collapses. A world of debt slaves cannot survive without steady incomes. Nor can the currencies survive by revving up printing presses. My mind is wide open. Please tell me what I've missed...tough choices all around, that we HAVE to get right"  @coronavirus .

Edited by T Tail
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/16/2020 at 4:46 AM, helengp said:

Actually you are both correct and incorrect at the same time. This virus is a ‘flu’....a new strain of it. Every year flu comes around it is slightly different, and the vaccine we are given every year is different, based on which strain of the flu the scientists think is going to be most prevalent. The difference is, this one is totally new and spreads so easily and for many, has no symptoms, so people are inadvertently spreading it. So when we talk about ‘flu’ we are actually talking about a whole host of viruses that cause respiratory distress, including this new one.
 

Secondly, flu itself never kills anyone...it is the complications from respiratory distress that kill people....chest infection, pneumonia and sepsis. The ‘flu’ vaccine each year gives us a small amount of several viruses, and then our bodies create antibodies to fight those viruses. Then if we become exposed to that virus again, our bodies are ready primed to start fighting. For most healthy people, that is sufficient to knock it on its head, and each of us will suffer varying degrees of illness, which will pass. The problem comes when people who are already ill (and whose immune systems already stressed), have compromised immune systems...like after cancer treatment, or are simply weak and frail due to old age, become exposed and their bodies can not fight off the disease...they succumb to chest infections, that can lead to pneumonia and sometimes sepsis, organ failure etc and ultimately death. So people with diseases like COPD, heart disease, diabetes and so on will have a much bigger fight on their hands. BUT this is the case for all flu strains and even the common cold can lead to death.

 

So, whilst this virus is scary, it will settle down in the community, as all others have before...think SARS, bird flu, swine flu and so on....and will in future be part of the flu jab we are given, and as a species, we will build immunity against it....in time. In the meantime, something like 95% of people who catch it will have a mild illness that will not do any long lasting harm. For the remainder, it is indeed a worry, but keeping a distance, washing your hands and being sensible will all limit the spread. 

 

 

Wrong! The Coronavirus is NOT an Influenza virus at all! They are completely different pathogens! I have studied microbiology and pathogens and Coronavirus does NOT cause the "flu"!!! There are a couple of more mild Coronavuruses that do cause the common cold, BUT most of the colds we get are caused by Rhinoviruses! 

 

They may have similar symptoms when they infect a person and cause disease, but they are totally different microbes! Influenza viruses look completely different than Coronaviruses! They are not at all the same, only in that they both cause respiratory illness.

 

No, it is NOT a "new strain" of an Influenza vurus. This Coronavirus has two strains of it's own from what I have read in the research. They do not know if one is more pathogenic than the other. It just means that the virus went through an antigenic shift and mutated. 

 

Influenza has "A" and "B" strains, "A" being far more pathogenic (much easier to cause a more serious disease). The 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic which killed between an estimated 40 to 100 million people worldwide was an incredibly pathogenic strain! It was known as H1N1, but in the "A" strain of the influenzas. 

 

SARS which is another type of Coronavirus that came out of China in 2002 and spread through 2004 is quite pathogenic.  The Health community was very lucky and were able to contain the spread of it, but Toronto particularly was  hit hard, as were many countries of Southeast Asia. It was incredibly pathogenic! In that case, as in this one, China hid the real severity of the spread of the pathogen, delaying identification of the microbe and treatment of patients  If we had SARS circulating right now, the death toll would be HUGE, maybe 10-20% even up to 40% possibly of those who caught it! COVID-19 is not anywhere near as pathogenic as SARS, thank GOD! 🙏🙏💙💙

 

Both SARS and COVID-19, Coronavirus diseases, are zoonotic, meaning they jumped species from animals to humans! Bats are the most likely reservoir for both Coronavirus diseases. 

 

So, NO, this is not a type or strain, or new kind of influenza at all in ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM. It is a completely new Coronavirus which looks nothing like influenza viruses! I suggest you Google both viruses photos and see the difference in the appearance under an electron microscope.  You will see very different microbes! You also may want to read the information about SARS or Coronavirus in genetal, since the Medical community does not know that much about them as of yet. They do know a LOT about influenza viruses however! 

 

As for vaccines, they have NOT found any vaccine for any Coronaviruses, that works! Coronaviruses have appeared to be immune to vaccines. If they had found a vaccine, there would be one for the couple types of common cold and SARS that are caused by different types of Coronaviruses. There ARE NO VACCINES FOR ANY KNOWN CORONAVIRUSES TO DATE! There are labs that have been working on finding a SARS vaccine, since it made it's first appearance in 2002 and yet have had no luck in finding one! 

 

I suspect the same will happen to COVID-19! They will research and research until they find one or they never find one! They might get lucky and find some anti-viral medications that help with the disease, the same way anti-virals can shorten the duration and intensity of the flu. But to date, no medicine or vaccine has been found for any Coronavirus! 

 

I truly pray that they can crack this nut and find a vaccine that will work. It would be a GODsend! My opinion is that this will run it's course through the world, and then we will experience a second wave in those that did not catch it this time due to social isolation, who then get exposed by someone or a surface that still contains viable virus material and possibly a minor third wave of it in 2021, only to find that it disappears back into nature! THAT is how Coronavirus tends to go.  I hope I am wrong, and it disappears back into nature BEFORE a second or third wave of infection! But historically, this is how these viral infections go! 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

On 3/20/2020 at 7:49 PM, T Tail said:

Helengp,

 

That's incorrect information.  20% are shuttled off to intensive care.  5% are put on ventilators.  95% of those put on ventilators never make it out of the hospital.  The 20% who are in intensive care almost all suffer from PERMANENT lung disease with 20 to 30% decrease in their lung capacity due to the illness and the scaring it causes.  Add that to a 10% a decade that you are alive, decrease in lung capacity as a normal course of events, and you can see why this disease is so debilitating to so many over age 60.  Or to anyone hoping to make it to age 60!

This is not the flu  It is not SARS. It is not MERS.  it is not swine flu.  It is much more dangerous.  It will not settle down in the community until 70% of the population becomes immune to it (by getting it, or by vaccine, which doesn't exist) and stops spreading it.  Thats math.  The inverse (percentage of the population) of the R naught must be immune for it to die out.  The US government had a report (leaked to the New York Times yesterday) that estimated that this virus would not reach 70% immunity for 18 MONTHS.  God help us all.

 

 

Actually, SARS is far more dangerous than COVID-19. The death rate for SARS is much higher, 10% in younger people and as high as 50% in older people and those with underlying health issues and the immuno-compromised individuals.  It is far more pathogenic, causing a much more serious disease! If SARS were circulating right now, the death toll would be much, much higher! 

 

COVID-19, as per the current research, which is fluid, changing as the Pandemic progresses, the death rate can be Zero in healthy and younger people, and up to 3 or 4 % in older individuals and those with underlying health issues and the immuno-compromised.  It may change after more testing and cases! 

 

This virus will die down in this first outbreak after it peaks, and most likely then reappear in a second wave, hitting those who managed to avoid infection during this first wave, then a possible third wave next year. This is what the Spanish flu did in 1918. That is why there were cases of it until the very beginning of 1920 when it finally ran out of steam. 

 

Until enough people are infected to provide what is called herd immunity, which is high, around 70% it will continue to run through the population. And it could take a very long time and several waves to get there! I have to agree with T. Tail on this, perhaps as long as 18 months, maybe less, perhaps around about 9 months to a year, depending on how many people are infected in this first wave! 

 

There may never be a vaccine or treatment for it The Medical community has not been able to create any vaccine for any Coronavirus yet! Treatment is also elusive. We can hope and pray that something can be found this time. They can't expect the Malaria drug, Chloroquine, along with another drug, either antibiotics or HIV antivirals, I heard they were discussing,  to work! They can try it, but they really have had no luck with any medications for Coronavirus in the past! I pray that they do find something that works! A vaccine would be GOD sending us a miracle! 🙏🙏💙💙

 

T. Tail:  I have to agree with you. GOD help us all! This is an historic time! I never would have believed we would be in the midst of a pandemic and I am someone who studied this stuff. I am not a doctor or Health professional. I have gone to school for this type of study however.  I studied microbiology, virology, and Pathology! This is a whole new world! A pathogen, NEVER seen before in humans, breaks out of animals, (bats, presumably), mutates, and crosses species and now creates a pandemic in the world! 

 

I am glad I understand what I do about this, but frustrated that viruses are the hardest microbes to fight! With bacterial infections, we can be treated with antibiotics, There are Anti-fungal medications for those types of infections, but viruses.....these are the ones that make me nervous!!! They make Public Health professionals nervous!!! As well as most Health professionals of any kind!!! Viruses are hard to stop and hard to treat! 

 

China's government truly should have told the WHO and China-CDC in January when they had a large outbreak in Wuhan! They waited, and hid the information until February, but people had been flying into and out of China to other countries all through January and infecting others BEFORE China finally copped to it! It started back on or around December 31st in Wuhan! China was down to zero cases in the last several days, (if they are to be believed), until their fencing team came back into the country from abroad and brought it back with them! China could have a second wave, BUT, they employ incredibly draconian methods to stop the spread, unlike the U.S.. They have locked down the team already!  The good thing is that the cases have dropped in China and South Korea and now even in Italy, the daily rate of infection is dropping. So that is good news! 

 

We here in the US haven't reached the peak yet! The field hospitals should already be up, testing should be countrywide and quarantine and isolation of positive individuals should have already been enacted!  We are way behind! tRump waited too long, (a month!!!!) to enact directives and we were not prepared to begin to manufacture what is needed! We needed a Roosevelt like response to WW Two, to re-tool factories, to have the Army Corps of Engineers to build the field hospitals in different states and areas to isolate cases! All medical supplies should have been directed to the hospitals or to FEMA, who should be supplying the states with what is needed, instead of the bidding wars between the states and FEMA that tRump created by telling the state's to depend on themselves!!!  What a mess! They need to start NOW to get these field hospitals up and running! They need to get moving on all of this!!! They must get the supplies to the medical workers in hospitals! Our military could be helping with this effort! They are highly efficient and could get it done quickly! 

 

The U.S. is going to have to get tougher on quarantine and isolation of COVID19 cases and positive carriers.  Putting the Coronavirus patients into field hospitals designed just for them would be a great start if we are to start to drop our numbers! The sick cannot be allowed to stay home, they must go to special Coronavirus field hospitals! I am all for using cruise ships as isolation wards for the Coronavirus patients to keep them out of regular hospitals and to keep them away from home where they can infect their families! Draconian? Sure, but it would be quite effective.  

 

And I read a lot of the Pandemic fiction in e-books online, and it is just eerie and surreal that we are going through this. We have not seen the worst if it yet either...

 

We WILL get through it. But it will be a different world afterwards...

 

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/14/2020 at 12:15 AM, Omax4 said:

Which virus? People get the flu everyday. Did you get your flu shot this year? That you have control of.

Corovirus. You don’t have any control of.
People can die crossing the street. Wouldn’t stop me from cruising.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Your comment now looks rather ironic, although only 1.5 months have passed. To be honest, I myself also thought that this coronavirus will not affect my country in any way and will not change (at least temporarily) the way of my life, especially since I was not going on a cruise in the spring or summer, but....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ava79 said:

Your comment now looks rather ironic, although only 1.5 months have passed. To be honest, I myself also thought that this coronavirus will not affect my country in any way and will not change (at least temporarily) the way of my life, especially since I was not going on a cruise in the spring or summer, but....


Yes I agree. It’s strange to think how much our world has changed. I meant what I said at the time. I went on a cruise the week I posted that. Obviously things are different and I underestimated the impact the virus would have. Let’s hope things return to normal soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, T Tail said:

Omax,

 

I'll say it for you:  "I'm Sorry for getting it so wrong, and I'll try and be more careful next time."


I didn’t do anything wrong. As I said I went on a cruise that week and had a good time. I would go again looking back knowing what I know know. It wasn’t back in the US yet.

 

All I said was that I underestimated the global impact the virus would have. Lot of people did.

You want me to say I’m sorry for underestimating the virus? Fine I’m sorry for underestimating the virus. It is a bigger deal than I thought. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Omax4 said:


I didn’t do anything wrong. As I said I went on a cruise that week and had a good time. I would go again looking back knowing what I know know. It wasn’t back in the US yet.

 

All I said was that I underestimated the global impact the virus would have. Lot of people did.

You want me to say I’m sorry for underestimating the virus? Fine I’m sorry for underestimating the virus. It is a bigger deal than I thought. 


I meant it wasn’t “bad” in the US yet 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of us in the US were blindsided because we believed the low numbers of infected here, circa the time of the Diamond Princess drama. We didn’t know it was because the US was basically not testing anyone.

Edited by AdoraBelle
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/27/2020 at 8:28 PM, Omax4 said:


Yes I agree. It’s strange to think how much our world has changed. I meant what I said at the time. I went on a cruise the week I posted that. Obviously things are different and I underestimated the impact the virus would have. Let’s hope things return to normal soon.

Wasn't it scary to travel? I hope you're doing well. I join the hopes for the best❤️

Link to comment
Share on other sites

helengp,

 

You say: "I have had my doubts about the comparative seriousness of this virus "

 

Any doubts now?  563 dead in the UK yesterday alone.

 

You are a doctor for crying out loud!  Wake up, this is horrible.

Edited by T Tail
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/16/2020 at 5:46 AM, helengp said:

Actually you are both correct and incorrect at the same time. This virus is a ‘flu’....a new strain of it. Every year flu comes around it is slightly different, and the vaccine we are given every year is different, based on which strain of the flu the scientists think is going to be most prevalent. The difference is, this one is totally new and spreads so easily and for many, has no symptoms, so people are inadvertently spreading it. So when we talk about ‘flu’ we are actually talking about a whole host of viruses that cause respiratory distress, including this new one.
 

Secondly, flu itself never kills anyone...it is the complications from respiratory distress that kill people....chest infection, pneumonia and sepsis. The ‘flu’ vaccine each year gives us a small amount of several viruses, and then our bodies create antibodies to fight those viruses. Then if we become exposed to that virus again, our bodies are ready primed to start fighting. For most healthy people, that is sufficient to knock it on its head, and each of us will suffer varying degrees of illness, which will pass. The problem comes when people who are already ill (and whose immune systems already stressed), have compromised immune systems...like after cancer treatment, or are simply weak and frail due to old age, become exposed and their bodies can not fight off the disease...they succumb to chest infections, that can lead to pneumonia and sometimes sepsis, organ failure etc and ultimately death. So people with diseases like COPD, heart disease, diabetes and so on will have a much bigger fight on their hands. BUT this is the case for all flu strains and even the common cold can lead to death.

 

So, whilst this virus is scary, it will settle down in the community, as all others have before...think SARS, bird flu, swine flu and so on....and will in future be part of the flu jab we are given, and as a species, we will build immunity against it....in time. In the meantime, something like 95% of people who catch it will have a mild illness that will not do any long lasting harm. For the remainder, it is indeed a worry, but keeping a distance, washing your hands and being sensible will all limit the spread. 

 

Helegp;

 

Your post (as quoted above) contains some erroneous information.  i realize it is roughly 2-3 weeks old, but the information you included should be corrected for anyone who may be reading it currently.

 

First of all, Covid19 is not a Flu virus.  It may cause symptoms similar to those of most Flu infections, but they are different viruses altogether.  Corona viruses are a large group of viruses that include the Common Cold and MERS.  Influenza viruses are a separate and distinct type of virus of varying degrees of severity.  It appears, from what we have learned thus far, that Covid19 is more contagious than the influenza virus, partly because is appears to be capable of surviving in the environment for longer periods.

 

Second, your statement that 95% of people who get the Corona Virus will experience only "a mild illness" is clearly not accurate.  While the exact death rate is still not known, in some instances, initial data indicates it to be between 1% & 2%; however, when all is said & done, it could be a high as 3%-5%.  We just do not know at this point.  The one thing that is becoming clear is that Covid19 is much more deadly than the seasonal influenza we typically see year-to-year.  

 

And finally, our ability to "build immunity to it" may not be as beneficial as you think.  Our acquired immunity to a virus is time specific- For the Common Cold, it lasts around 10-12 months; for the Flu, generally a couple of years.  So while immunity may help stem the current outbreak, it may not help any of us in the next round.

 

No offense intended- As a medical professional, I just felt it important to set the record straight.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you SoonerDog for your valid comments. No offence taken. My argument all along is that this disease is no more dangerous overall than a bad flu epidemic. Not in how or when it hits, but in the overall death rate. As the government has made Covid19 a notifiable disease, all deaths where it ‘features’ will be counted, when in reality, many should not. I work in a front line role, not in a medical capacity, but suffice to say I deal with Medical Certificates of Death all day long, and experience has taught me the difference of dying ‘from‘ something, as opposed to dying ‘with‘ something. This article that appeared overnight expresses quite clearly my point.  

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


The real death rate will not be known for some considerable time, as it will take a while to know how widespread the disease already is, how many people have actually had it and recovered but were never tested, how many deaths were truly caused by it, and how those figures then compare to other viral pandemics and the normal death rate. I think that far more people have had this illness than we understand, and that the numbers tested are just the tip of the iceberg. If that’s right, the death rate percentage comes right down.

 

As stand alone figures, the daily death rate is truly frightening. But when taken in context to the fact that between 1300 and 1400 die every day normally, and that the virus is creating a condensation of those deaths in to a shorter period of time, we can start to better assimilate them. 
 

As an aside, I sign off between 30 and 40 deaths a week.....this last 2 weeks we have seen a dramatic fall in the number of deaths. Countywide we have had 3 Covid deaths so far, all in elderly already very sick people, one who had a DNR in place. Why the fall in the local death rate? Who knows!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Hw64 said:

My argument all along is that this disease is no more dangerous overall than a bad flu epidemic. Not in how or when it hits, but in the overall death rate. ? Who knows!


If you and @helengpgoing to include asymptomatic carriers when calculating CFR with COVID-19, why are you not including it with common influenza? 1 in 3 carriers of Flu are asymptomatic* and not factored into its CFR either.  Let's compare apples to apples shall we? 

Let's look at the numbers from the CDC
US Flu Fatalities: 61,000 est. (Worst season in some time)

US COVID Fatalities will blow past that within the next week or so and will likely triple it within a few weeks. Hospitalizations and overall strain on healthcare will be orders of magnitude worse than with a "bad flu epidemic". Comparing the two is asinine. 

 

Also, your attempt to diminish fatalities COVID because many are in conjunction with other co-morbidities is equally silly, as the same phenomena applies to typical influenza fatalities

 

Please, stop. 

 

* SOURCE: Carrat F, Vergu E, Ferguson NM, Lemaitre M, Cauchemez S, Leach S, Valleron AJ - Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Apr 1; 167(7):775-85.

Edited by Icon901
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Icon901 said:


If you and @helengpgoing to include asymptomatic carriers when calculating CFR with COVID-19, why are you not including it with common influenza? 1 in 3 carriers of Flu are asymptomatic* and not factored into its CFR either.  Let's compare apples to apples shall we? 

Let's look at the numbers from the CDC
US Flu Fatalities: 61,000 est. (Worst season in some time)

US COVID Fatalities will blow past that within the next week or so and will likely triple it within a few weeks. Hospitalizations and overall strain on healthcare will be orders of magnitude worse than with a "bad flu epidemic". Comparing the two is asinine. 

 

Also, your attempt to diminish fatalities COVID because many are in conjunction with other co-morbidities is equally silly, as the same phenomena applies to typical influenza fatalities

 

Please, stop. 

 

* SOURCE: Carrat F, Vergu E, Ferguson NM, Lemaitre M, Cauchemez S, Leach S, Valleron AJ - Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Apr 1; 167(7):775-85.


I think when people talk about a bad flu epidemic, people might be referring to before we had a flu vaccine. Like the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 is the first to come to mind. Somewhere between 30 to 50 million people died.

 

Out of the 61,000 flu fatalities you are referring to ( last year maybe) I’ll bet  you most of the people did not get a flu shot out of stupidity, cost ( even that is debatable), or people who just refuse vaccines. Of course there are always some people who get the flu shot who still get the flu and die, but that’s rare. And of course I feel sorry for those people.

 

So back to the original point I do believe this is like a flu epidemic. But a older flu epidemic. And that’s exactly why we are social distancing. In 1918 there were many cases of mass gathering taking place and it ended up killing many people. We have learned our lesson.

 

.

 

 

Edited by Omax4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Omax4 said:


I think when people talk about a bad flu epidemic, people might be referring to before we had a flu vaccine. Like the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 is the first to come to mind. Somewhere between 30 to 50 million people died.

 

Out of the 61,000 flu fatalities you are referring to ( last year maybe) I’ll bet  you most of the people did not get a flu shot out of stupidity, cost ( even that is debatable), or people who just refuse vaccines. Of course there are always some people who get the flu shot who still get the flu and die, but that’s rare. And of course I feel sorry for those people.

 

So back to the original point I do believe this is like a flu epidemic. But a older flu epidemic. And that’s exactly why we are social distancing. In 1918 there were many cases of mass gathering taking place and it ended up killing many people. We have learned our lesson.


With all due respect there are some pretty big issues with your post. 

1) Spanish flu of 1918 was H1N1, not a "standard" flu.  We only recently (2009) developed a vaccine for this type of influenza, and that vaccine is only good for 2 years. not the 10 as claimed. Also there are countless strains of inflenza, so it's impossible to keep folks vaccinated against them all... absent a universal flu vaccine like Centivax by Distributed Bio is poised to potentially become. 

2) The flu shot is helpful at times but isn't always effective. It's a GUESS by the WHO at what strains will be common that year. They're frequently wrong, like they were this year. Your assertion that it's rare that vaccinated people die of the flu is incorrect. 

 

I'd also argue that our "Social distancing" isn't nearly as effective as people think. This video does a good job of showing how even a few folks going about their business, or having centralized meeting spots (like groceries/pharmacies) can largely diminish the effectiveness of a half-baked "quarantine". Not to mention the large number of people simply ignoring it. I'd argue that we have NOT learned our lesson well. 

In any event, using a Novel Avian Flu strain from a century ago as a representative of a modern "severe common flu" season is either badly flawed or intentionally disingenuous. 


Again, anyone comparing this outbreak to a "Severe common flu" season is spreading bad information and needs to stop. 



 

Edited by Icon901
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Icon901 said:


With all due respect there are some pretty big issues with your post. 

1) Spanish flu of 1918 was H1N1, not a "standard" flu.  We only recently (2009) developed a vaccine for this type of influenza, and that vaccine is only good for 2 years. not the 10 as claimed. Also there are countless strains of inflenza, so it's impossible to keep folks vaccinated against them all... absent a universal flu vaccine like Centivax by Distributed Bio is poised to potentially become. 

2) The flu shot is helpful at times but isn't always effective. It's a GUESS by the WHO at what strains will be common that year. They're frequently wrong, like they were this year. Your assertion that it's rare that vaccinated people die of the flu is incorrect. 

 

I'd also argue that our "Social distancing" isn't nearly as effective as people think. This video does a good job of showing how even a few folks going about their business, or having centralized meeting spots (like groceries/pharmacies) can largely diminish the effectiveness of a half-baked "quarantine". Not to mention the large number of people simply ignoring it. I'd argue that we have NOT learned our lesson well. 

In any event, using a Novel Avian Flu strain from a century ago as a representative of a modern "severe common flu" season is either badly flawed or intentionally disingenuous. 


Again, anyone comparing this outbreak to a "Severe common flu" season is spreading bad information and needs to stop. 



 


You are correct that the Spanish Flu was H1N1. I forgot that. My apologies on that. Point taken.

 

As far as vaccinated people dying from flu being rare, that is correct. I have discussed this with medical professional including virologist. So I guess they must be all wrong.

 

I personally believe in social distancing. But if you don’t, fine. I’m not going to try to debate it with you.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Thank You for 25 Years - Click for Fun Stuff!
      • Forum Assistance
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • Canadian Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...