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CCL stock dips below 40


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1 hour ago, 1019throw said:

Devil's advocate, speculating that you know it will go back up like it always does it a false sense of security. Personally I think it will tank, at which point I would buy it, because I also think the cruise industry will be done in the long run. Everyone is grasping at straws. 

True, I would bet employees with stock think the “tank” has already happened.  There is also no guaranty they will continue the obc, esp if tons buy the stock.  

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13 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

True, I would bet employees with stock think the “tank” has already happened.  There is also no guaranty they will continue the obc, esp if tons buy the stock.  

I would personally be buying for the appreciation opportunity of the stock value, not the OBC. 

 

Depending on how carnival comes out of this and what the stock value is at the end of the year, I could see them changes the OBC value to say $50, or increasing the minimum shares 200 perhaps. 

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1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

True, I would bet employees with stock think the “tank” has already happened.  There is also no guaranty they will continue the obc, esp if tons buy the stock.  

 

1 hour ago, 1019throw said:

I would personally be buying for the appreciation opportunity of the stock value, not the OBC. 

 

 

About 4 years on Cunard ago we morning coffee with a Carnival Exec (mystery guest), and she told us that the bean counters have already had in their figures a contingency for every stateroom claiming shareholder benefit and using FCDs.

Not utalised, profit contribution.

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Amazed that a small potential income and a bit of positive PR from the offer to use ships as temporary hospitals boosted stock by almost 38% at one point today. It's hardly a lifeline for Carnival. I'd be amazed if any of the cruise lines sailed again this year on any meaningful basis. Even it if clears up over the next few months to a large extent, there are going to be plenty of countries who have avoided the worst who won't want the risk of cruise ships or indeed any other visitors bringing it into the country. 

 

Only thing likely to affect that in any meaningful way is a faster than expected vaccine, which is possible. Even with that, many of the customers for the mass market lines might have lost jobs/had reduced income over the virus period and a cruise isn't going to be a priority for them. Add that to the negative PR generated by the Diamond Princess, plus the general impression thrown out by the media that cruise ships are breeding grounds for disease and I think the industry is in for a torrid time. If it survives at all that is.

 

I hope I'm wrong as a past passenger who loves cruising, but I wouldn't be throwing my money at any stock just now, regardless of how cheap it goes.

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I think that the biggest problem the cruise industry has right now is that any government help will likely come with big strings... any loan will likely require a promise to discontinue dividends until repaid, and possibly a new structure that requires that they pay US taxes (minimal at present).  I don’t think there is any realistic possibility that the Big 3 will find themselves considering bankruptcy and if they do, it will be a chapter 11, not a chapter 7, so the stock will not become worthless.

 

This too shall pass.

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6 minutes ago, DimmieCO said:

This too shall pass.

 

Yes, of course. I just think that we might find ourselves in a very different world as far as global travel is concerned. Especially cheap travel. It was never sustainable really. I assumed it would be green measures that changed it over time. The virus is doing more to combat global pollution in a few short months than years of good intentions from governments would have achieved.

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6 minutes ago, DimmieCO said:

I think that the biggest problem the cruise industry has right now is that any government help will likely come with big strings... any loan will likely require a promise to discontinue dividends until repaid, and possibly a new structure that requires that they pay US taxes (minimal at present).  I don’t think there is any realistic possibility that the Big 3 will find themselves considering bankruptcy and if they do, it will be a chapter 11, not a chapter 7, so the stock will not become worthless.

 

This too shall pass.

My favorite saying in hard times.👍   

That's a good observation, and very reasonable, considering the circumstances.

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I've been buying in over the last week for long term holding.


At the same time I've got some put options in play for April 9th because the next month long stoppage (if not longer) is going to crush the stock price into mid to low single digits.

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1 hour ago, rudoja00 said:

I've been buying in over the last week for long term holding.


At the same time I've got some put options in play for April 9th because the next month long stoppage (if not longer) is going to crush the stock price into mid to low single digits.

 

Be ready for a long hold, dividend will be cut, and the leisure / travel industry won't recover for another year or more and when it does it will look very different, like the airports post 9/11.

 

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

Edited by chipmaster
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2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Be ready for a long hold, dividend will be cut, and the leisure / travel industry won't recover for another year or more and when it does it will look very different, like the airports post 9/11.

 

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

 

I'm totally fine.  I really am picking it up for a 5+ year hold.  I agree the T&L industry is going to change for years after this.  

 

Same play with Hilton, DIS and Delta.

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3 hours ago, Hamburg Avon Lady said:

Thank you.

 

Is  there a limit on how many times you can apply this per yer ??

No.  The only limit is one shareholder OBC per stateroom.  We usually do 4+ cruises a year and get the OBC on all of them.  A back to back (b2b) set of cruises will earn you an OBC for each separate cruise so on a b2b one would get two shareholder OBC.  

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On 3/20/2020 at 4:11 PM, nhraformula00 said:

$8.00  midday on Wednesday and as high as $ 13.80 today.

I was trying to buy on Wednesday but my bank dropped the ball!!! I am so mad right now that I missed that low!

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19 minutes ago, 1019throw said:

Likely people expecting money from the stimulus package. I'd expect carnival to still cancel April cruises and the stock to dip again. 

Be lucky if they are cruising again by September. End of the year might be optimistic. No matter what stimuli are forthcoming, there is a long way to the end of this virus and cruising will take longer than most to recover.

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I am new to stocks...but would like to buy some Carnival.  I too missed out on the low.  My question to the seasoned trader...what is your thoughts on it going back down or up and how long do you hold out, this is expected to be a long term investment.  Thank you

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43 minutes ago, HoosierBuddy said:

I am new to stocks...but would like to buy some Carnival.  I too missed out on the low.  My question to the seasoned trader...what is your thoughts on it going back down or up and how long do you hold out, this is expected to be a long term investment.  Thank you

Most are figuring they are going to announce more cancels - probably for the month of April, and then it would most likely tank again.

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