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CoronaVirus Impact on the Cruise Industry

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Just now, rolloman said:

If it becomes too serious like you mention...well....cruising will come to a grinding halt and those ships will be parked. I am assuming this all calms down by summer.....(Dr. OZ as a reference) so some type of stop gap emergency plan from the cruise lines needs to be at the ready.


ok so you are saying for the time being use CocoCay as an alternate port and don't bother finding out if, say, St.Maarten would turn you away, etc. 

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2 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

 

The cruise lines still have duty to obey local laws and regulations, and the countries have rights to deny ships entry.  

 

Maybe I am misunderstanding your premise?  Are you saying Royal can just go to CocoCay, NCL can just go to GSC, MSC can just go to Ocean Cay, etc., because they have exclusive long term contracts for usage, and do not require the government approval?  

I never said anything about "not getting" approval. But in the scheme of world wide issue, I would tend to feel the Bahamas would be more than willing to assist just like the cruise lines assisted them with the Hurricanes which have decimated their islands in the past. 

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4 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:


ok so you are saying for the time being use CocoCay as an alternate port and don't bother finding out if, say, St.Maarten would turn you away, etc. 

The solution I mentioned was in case of port denial. As in world wide port denial. 

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6 hours ago, Potstech said:

When were ALL airplanes cancelled for a disease?

Many flights have been cancelled - reflecting the drop in demand as people have cut down on unnecessary flights, of course still flying as a means of transportation for business or for real family reasons. 

Since it is obvious that cruising is recreational - it is unnecessary; so it is silly to compare cutting flights with cutting cruises.

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I do not think that there will be any more at sea quarantines.  Essentially they may be forced to return to home port to have an orderly evacuation of the ship like they are doing in CA now with passengers put into land based quarantine.

 

Having a ship sit in the harbor for weeks where passengers and crew infect each other has been shown to be a bad idea.

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7 hours ago, GlamorousGirl said:

KTS is right on. But even if the government has good intentions, these quarantines are totally futile. Symptoms don’t show right away, and many people who actually do have symptoms will either assume they have the flu or refuse to report themselves, either because they don’t want to be quarantined or don’t have insurance. It’s impossible to quarantine everyone. If it was working we wouldn’t see the explosive spread we’re seeing.

If this attitude becomes prevalent it will become essential to simply cancel all cruises.  Sure, you cannot quarantine everyone, and you cannot get everyone to behave responsibly:  making blanket cancellation the only reasonable approach.

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48 minutes ago, rolloman said:

I doubt anyone can answer your question because at this point no one knows. If I was in charge at Royal Caribbean and my fleet was blocked from port entry with thousands of passengers then I would route my ship to one of the private islands like coco cay. It might be a good idea if they began staging that island for this type of event now. 


I very much doubt coco cay has the medical facilities to handle that type of scenario. The people who become seriously ill require the facilities of a modern ICU. With a large cruise ship that could mean hundreds of people requiring hospitalisation.  

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The answer is once there is a viable vaccine then the quarantine issue will go away which is 12-18 months away.  its gonna cost a LOT of taxpayer money to keep transporting, feeding and housing people who get this on a cruise.  Private flights, etc.  At some point the free care will end and a credit card will be asked for.   At that point I suspect no one will risk it.

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52 minutes ago, TheTruthCanHurt said:

 

 

I was just wondering.  If there was this much media hype and all out panic and fear mongering over the flu (which is way worse)   maybe we would have a cure for it now????? 

 

 

What a ludicrous and totally inaccurate statement. Corona has been in Italy for a grand total of only 2-3 weeks yet now 9000 have caught it and over 450 dead already. That is 5% but the real numbers could be higher as 7000+ are still active cases.  The only reason that flu kills more is that it has had time to spread worldwide over hundreds of years. 

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16 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:


I very much doubt coco cay has the medical facilities to handle that type of scenario. The people who become seriously ill require the facilities of a modern ICU. With a large cruise ship that could mean hundreds of people requiring hospitalisation.  

Well...there is a hospital on the ship and there are other ships which are actually dedicated hospital ships. Severe cases can be flown ashore, just like they  have recently done with the two Princess ships. IMHO the idea is not being dismissed in the RCCL board room. 

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4 minutes ago, bretts173 said:

What a ludicrous and totally inaccurate statement. Corona has been in Italy for a grand total of only 2-3 weeks yet now 9000 have caught it and over 450 dead already. That is 5% but the real numbers could be higher as 7000+ are still active cases.  The only reason that flu kills more is that it has had time to spread worldwide over hundreds of years. 

I heard today (Dr. Oz) the data gathered so far states the transmission rate is 45-1 and the flu is 9-1. What that means is each person who gets Corona, infects 45 and the flu infects 9. It may very well not be deadlier over all but it has proven to be quite lethal in people 80 years old +. 

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8 minutes ago, bretts173 said:

What a ludicrous and totally inaccurate statement. Corona has been in Italy for a grand total of only 2-3 weeks yet now 9000 have caught it and over 450 dead already. That is 5% but the real numbers could be higher as 7000+ are still active cases.  The only reason that flu kills more is that it has had time to spread worldwide over hundreds of years. 

HI Brett, 

most of your very few posts are about panic.  so clearly you dont want to have a discussion ... and thats fine....  However, because many people have mild to no symptoms, it 's also possible that the number is much lower then the fast moving and very innacurate numbers in the press.  THIS IS A VERY FLUID SITUATION>  

 

However.     I stand by what I said.  if there was this much outcry over the flu.   (which is way way way worse)  ... and to clarify .  I guess you are ok with millions of people dying?????? you must be or wouldnt you want to focus on this a little more????

THis information is online in regards to the flu..

. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

 

so Conservatively in the last 10 years over 2.9 million people have died from the flu???? Dont you think there should be some public outcry for that????

 

I am just saying... people are acting so crazy right now without all the facts.  Everyone should just slow down and take a breath.  YES  of course high risk individuals are at risk.  Just as they are with the flu, and other serious illness.  

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4 minutes ago, rolloman said:

I heard today (Dr. Oz) the data gathered so far states the transmission rate is 45-1 and the flu is 9-1. What that means is each person who gets Corona, infects 45 and the flu infects 9. It may very well not be deadlier over all but it has proven to be quite lethal in people 80 years old +. 

Yes for sure..... it has proven deadly to elderly people 100%  true.  But... I am not sure that a television DR is who we should be getting our information from.  IT will be years before there is enough data to know for sure.    

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One also has to remember that there is a flu vaccine, so a person with the flu is not as likely to infect as many because a lot of people have been vaccinated.

 

Unfortunately the flu vaccine makes covid 19 death toll worse.  Essentially all the vulnerable tend to get the flu shot saving their lives, only to face covid 19 which no one has been vaccinated.  Yes, the flu would have killed them if they caught it, but since they had the vaccine they did not get the flu, now they get the corona virus which kills them.  Hence the nursing home problem in Washington State, they probably all had a flu vaccine saving them from the flu only to have the corona virus come along and get them anyways.

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14 minutes ago, TheTruthCanHurt said:

Yes for sure..... it has proven deadly to elderly people 100%  true.  But... I am not sure that a television DR is who we should be getting our information from.  IT will be years before there is enough data to know for sure.    

It is far from 100% deadly to the elderly....the data right now says over 80 years of age 15% death rate. As for Dr. Oz...uh he is a real life heart surgeon, Harvard and University of Penn graduate....he certainly is not dismissed by the medical community as a "tv DR"

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17 minutes ago, mike123abc said:

One also has to remember that there is a flu vaccine, so a person with the flu is not as likely to infect as many because a lot of people have been vaccinated.

 

 

Good point, basically this is what it all boils down to, there is a vaccine to prevent flu and there is not one yet for Corona. Evidently they are on the fast track to produce one for testing in the public by summer and be in wide spread use by end of this year. Fingers crossed. Would be great to have 2021 start out with no politics and no hysteria over Corona. 

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18 minutes ago, rolloman said:

Good point, basically this is what it all boils down to, there is a vaccine to prevent flu and there is not one yet for Corona. Evidently they are on the fast track to produce one for testing in the public by summer and be in wide spread use by end of this year. Fingers crossed. Would be great to have 2021 start out with no politics and no hysteria over Corona. 

Best guess I've heard for a fully available vaccine is about a year and a half from now, or mid-2021 at the soonest.  Safety trials and manufacturing scale-up both take some time.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, alc13 said:

Best guess I've heard for a fully available vaccine is about a year and a half from now, or mid-2021 at the soonest.  Safety trials and manufacturing scale-up both take some time.

Here you go. Company is called Greffex. They have the vaccine now. Mainly because they had it for SARS back in the day and it works for Covid-19 because most scientists refer to this as SARS 2. Evidently if a Pandemic is declared, this can be fast tracked without all the trials.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/20/texas-based-company-has-reportedly-created-a-coronavirus-vaccine/

Edited by rolloman

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14 minutes ago, rolloman said:

Here you go. Company is called Greffex. They have the vaccine now. Mainly because they had it for SARS back in the day and it works for Covid-19 because most scientists refer to this as SARS 2. Evidently if a Pandemic is declared, this can be fast tracked without all the trials.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/20/texas-based-company-has-reportedly-created-a-coronavirus-vaccine/


This article is from Feb 20th. I think if there was a genuine vaccine over 2 weeks ago there would be more talk about the company and the status of the vaccine. People would be discussing the specific timeline, scale up for mass production, etc.  

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I believe this is only the beginning of the financial hit to the cruise industry.  The US and Canadian governments have now advised against cruise travel.
My husband and I went on an Alaskan Cruise during the SARS outbreak.  We were well informed and well prepared.  We have no regrets.  
This virus is still new and because of that it gives me pause when considering a cruise.  

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1 hour ago, rolloman said:

I heard today (Dr. Oz) the data gathered so far states the transmission rate is 45-1 and the flu is 9-1. What that means is each person who gets Corona, infects 45 and the flu infects 9. It may very well not be deadlier over all but it has proven to be quite lethal in people 80 years old +. 

 

I think you have mis-heard.

 

The estimates for the transmission (Ro) for coronavirus is ranging from the WHO estimate of 2.5 others infected from a single person to some Chinese reports based on specific regional cases of up to 4 others infected.  I have not read of any higher estimates, but perhaps it is possible that Dr. Oz said "4 to 5" as opposed to saying "45" which I think is not in the realm of possibility.

 

And having said that, the Ro for the common flu is around 1.3...

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Billy Baltic said:


I very much doubt coco cay has the medical facilities to handle that type of scenario. The people who become seriously ill require the facilities of a modern ICU. With a large cruise ship that could mean hundreds of people requiring hospitalisation.  

Maybe, maybe not. Majority people have got it are not Hospitalized and get over it. Not to say many other with special needs wont need that extra care

Edited by ONECRUISER

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3 hours ago, rolloman said:

It is far from 100% deadly to the elderly....the data right now says over 80 years of age 15% death rate. As for Dr. Oz...uh he is a real life heart surgeon, Harvard and University of Penn graduate....he certainly is not dismissed by the medical community as a "tv DR"

 

The comment was saying it is 100% true the virus was hard on seniors, not 100% fatal.  Anyway, Oz may have credentials, but has had quite a bit of controversy due to some of his claims.  I can't speak for the medical field, but to me he is more of a TV celebrity than a person of science.  To me, what little I've seen of his shows are too much like infomercials, and I wouldn't trust his advice.   YMMV.   

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5 hours ago, rolloman said:

Well...there is a hospital on the ship and there are other ships which are actually dedicated hospital ships. Severe cases can be flown ashore, just like they  have recently done with the two Princess ships. IMHO the idea is not being dismissed in the RCCL board room. 

In no way, shape, or form is any cruise line capable or equipped to act as a hospital ship. Nor do I think anyone reasonably believes they could be.  And I definitely do NOT think this idea would be well received in a board room or leadership meeting.  

 

Cruise lines helped Bahamas with some relief deliveries of essential items and $1M for rebuild efforts. And didn't have the risk of quarantines and infections. Royal Caribbean has about $245M cash on hand, and $18B in liabilities.  Let me break that down a bit 

 

Let's say you get a credit card bill for $1800 (liabilities).  You have $25 in your pocket.  You give $1 to your buddy who is going through some stuff.  He already lets you store stuff in his garage basically for free (flag of convenience) so you don't have to pay for a storage unit (taxes) at the apartment complex you live at  and work out of. 

 

Now hard times have hit you and you're going to have a hard time making that minimum payment on the $1800 bill just to stay afloat, so to speak.  Are you hitting up the guy that needed $1 in help from you? What's he going to do to help your situation? 

 

Also, and no pressure here, if you miss a couple of payments you're also going to completely destroy the tourism based service economy of Florida.  

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