More Cut-backs?

[kathy9]

With the stock market in a nose dive and cruise lines having to cancel and refund multiple cruises around the world it is hard to be optimistic about cruising right now.

We have a Silver Seas cruise booked for April 2021 and just booked the Insignia for 2022.

Hope all the cruise lines will survive and thrive!

Safe travels! 

[floridatravelersforlife]

Back on topic, after 9/11, the cruise companies cut prices.  The subsequent Caribbean season was replete with deals.  We booked a veranda cabin on the Century for 199pp.   This was during the time that the cruise companies were building their 2000-3000 pax ships and the R class program was underway. In the early 2000's the loyalty programs began.  I  believe the Cruise companies will cut prices incurring losses and share prices will dive until the customer return.  Cruising is still a bargain.

[susiesan]

There are already amazing deals for cruises over the next few months. About the only cruise line not offering deals now are Oceania and Viking in . Prices are the same as they have always been, somewhat on the high side. People are canceling right and left and O is not lowering prices to entice people to book. A month ago my June 26 Marina Baltic cruise was almost all waitlisted in all categories. As of today, the only categories waitlisted are the 2 insides which is where I am. Final payment is due in 3 weeks. Likely more people will cancel. I am debating taking a chance on cancelling now, wait till after final payment and see if O lowers the price, and then rebook at the discount rate. 

[Hawaiidan]

3 hours ago, susiesan said:

There are already amazing deals for cruises over the next few months. About the only cruise line not offering deals now are Oceania and Viking in . Prices are the same as they have always been, somewhat on the high side. People are canceling right and left and O is not lowering prices to entice people to book. A month ago my June 26 Marina Baltic cruise was almost all waitlisted in all categories. As of today, the only categories waitlisted are the 2 insides which is where I am. Final payment is due in 3 weeks. Likely more people will cancel. I am debating taking a chance on cancelling now, wait till after final payment and see if O lowers the price, and then rebook at the discount rate. 

Good question..... do you own a crystal ball?      Kidding, but this is a classic question that your agent should be in a good position to inform you from his  relation with the regional rep .   It is an inside knowledge sort of question that you as a customer would not be as informed.   The agent sees and deals with dozens of situations like this if he is a good one.   Another reason to avoid booking direct...ever

However, if you want to play the odds... I would cancel now and wait till 2 weeks before the cruise and  re-book.   If you feel strongly of a discount...   Discounts come from taking risk.... are you?

Edited March 1, 2020 by Hawaiidan

[LHT28]

3 hours ago, susiesan said:

Likely more people will cancel. I am debating taking a chance on cancelling now, wait till after final payment and see if O lowers the price, and then rebook at the discount rate. 

That is  an excellent plan 😎

[susiesan]

3 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

That is  an excellent plan 😎

I am going to call my TA tomorrow, see what she is hearing. If O starts seeing a lot of people cancel upcoming Europe cruises right before final payment, has anyone ever seen them offer incentives to people to keep their booking? Things like extra OBC, price drops, upgrades? I really do want to take this cruise, the only thing stopping me would be if the airlines aren't flying to Europe in June and I can't get to Copenhagen or if O just cancels the cruise. But if I make the final payment and see O start selling this cruise at a huge discount, far less than what I paid, and don't offer price adjustments or anything to loyal customers, this will be the last time I cruise on Oceania.

[pinotlover]

19 minutes ago, susiesan said:

I am going to call my TA tomorrow, see what she is hearing. If O starts seeing a lot of people cancel upcoming Europe cruises right before final payment, has anyone ever seen them offer incentives to people to keep their booking? Things like extra OBC, price drops, upgrades? I really do want to take this cruise, the only thing stopping me would be if the airlines aren't flying to Europe in June and I can't get to Copenhagen or if O just cancels the cruise. But if I make the final payment and see O start selling this cruise at a huge discount, far less than what I paid, and don't offer price adjustments or anything to loyal customers, this will be the last time I cruise on Oceania.

Oceania rarely does it that way. When they have a cruise that needs filling, one might typically get a phone call from their TA outlining the new deal. You rarely will see those deals in print. I hear occasionally online TA might run deals, but I’ve never seen them. You’d have to spend time running down internet ads!
 

For me, it’s like an airplane ticket. I pay what I find is acceptable, and never worry about what the guy in front of me paid. I certainly don’t run around the plane querying people to find out, if I got a deal. That’s just me, though!

[ORV]

14 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Oceania rarely does it that way. When they have a cruise that needs filling, one might typically get a phone call from their TA outlining the new deal. You rarely will see those deals in print. I hear occasionally online TA might run deals, but I’ve never seen them. You’d have to spend time running down internet ads!
 

For me, it’s like an airplane ticket. I pay what I find is acceptable, and never worry about what the guy in front of me paid. I certainly don’t run around the plane querying people to find out, if I got a deal. That’s just me, though!

Yes, but they are in uncharted waters now. 

[susiesan]

11 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Oceania rarely does it that way. When they have a cruise that needs filling, one might typically get a phone call from their TA outlining the new deal. You rarely will see those deals in print. I hear occasionally online TA might run deals, but I’ve never seen them. You’d have to spend time running down internet ads!
 

For me, it’s like an airplane ticket. I pay what I find is acceptable, and never worry about what the guy in front of me paid. I certainly don’t run around the plane querying people to find out, if I got a deal. That’s just me, though!

That's what I thought. Over the years I have had a few calls from my TA with upsell offers on underselling cruises I am booked on, wanting to free up my lower priced cabin that is easier to sell and move me to a higher category. I have never taken one of these deals, not worth it to me. I paid a very low price for my inside by booking more than a year in advance. Since there are very few insides on Marina and there is a big cost difference between them and the lowest veranda, $1300 pp, I would hope O would get better results filling the ship at the lower price point to get nervous people to take European cruises this summer under the current circumstances with the corona virus panic. I am booked into a handicapped cabin that I do not need so maybe that will help us get moved at no charge to a better cabin if someone needs the handicapped cabin.

 

[LHT28]

18 minutes ago, susiesan said:

 I am booked into a handicapped cabin that I do not need so maybe that will help us get moved at no charge to a better cabin if someone needs the handicapped cabin.

 

Or maybe those  that need  a H/C  cabin will not sail  due to health issues & the virus   so you will still have the  H/C cabin 😎

maybe sit tight & see if any deals come  your way  & if they do not  

there are many lines out there  to try

[Aloha 1]

Every year we hear of numerous cases of norovirus disrupting cruises yet the cruise lines carry on with minimal disruption. Every year the flu kills tens of thousands of Americans and much more elsewhere. It is endemic worldwide. Yet the cruise lines carry on. We have had 2 pandemics in the last 63 years. The Asian flu in the late 50's and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. Both were severe worldwide pandemics that killed millions.  Today we have Covid-19 which by all accounts is: 1) less serious than the flu, 2) has a lower mortality rate than the flu, and 3) is highly contagious like the flu. I would submit that we suffer from too many Hollywood movies about the end of the world due to a virus which is helping cause this fear among the populous.

Oceania ( AKA Norwegian) will do whatever needs to be done to fill the upcoming voyages. If that means discounts, fantastic. If it means increased O Life Choices, great. I'm booked on Riviera in September for the Eastern Med out of Rome. Not cancelling.

[njhorseman]

19 minutes ago, Aloha 1 said:

 Today we have Covid-19 which by all accounts is: 1) less serious than the flu, 2) has a lower mortality rate than the flu, and 3) is highly contagious like the flu.

You're spreading misinformation. 

 

First, it's difficult to make definitive statements about Covid-19 at this time because it's fairly new and because the overwhelming majority of cases and deaths have been in China, which has not been a reliable source of data. Medical science isn't able to fully predict key statistics on mortality rates,  and contagion as of yet. Further a statement like "less serious than the flu" is completely meaningless . What is the scientific definition of "serious"?

 

I'd suggest you look at some actual data and the opinions of medical scientists .

 

Here's very up-to-date information that shows, among other things, that the mortality rate is much higher than the flu, but acknowledges that after the number of infected persons is known more accurately that the death rate may be similar to the flu. Not less...MAY be similar when we have better data. Current data indicates a death rate of 1.4 to 2 percent . Seasonal flu has a death rate under 1 percent.

 

Second, the contagion rate is much higher than for the flu . Each person with coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 people on average as opposed to 1.3 people for seasonal flu.

 

Here's the source I'm using: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html?action=click&algo=top_conversion&auth=login-email&fellback=false&imp_id=741429412&imp_id=384242279&login=email&module=trending&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

 

[Hawaiidan]

one of the biggest frustrations in buying anything  is that your not getting it at the lowest price.

My suggestion for sanity  is to pick a cabin you like for a price you like and once you like all that... dont look back.  It only leads to heart ache.     I would tell your agent 3 things   1:  that she tell Oceania  your open for an up grade.   2:  Give her a budget on what your willing to pay and for what type cabin range.  3: enable her to act on a moment notice in your behalf to grab any deal she thinks is great.

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, Aloha 1 said:

Today we have Covid-19 which by all accounts is: 1) less serious than the flu, 2) has a lower mortality rate than the flu,

Could you please cite your sources for this information.

Everything I’ve heard and read indicates that Covid-19 has TWENTY times the mortality than the flu. Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 compared to Covid-19 rate of 2. As indicated above, these are preliminary assessments.

Personally, I’d like to suffer with neither but given a choice I would choose the flu.

PS Agree with njhorseman’s assessment above.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Paulchili

[Aloha 1]

@njhorseman, @paulchili: Thanks for your replies. My source is none other than the CDC which I note njhorseman referenced.

"The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1%, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

The best model we have to date based on South Korea data points to this. The issue is numbers. The suspicion is the number of infections is vastly higher than what you are reading or seeing on TV. The higher the number of cases , the lower the current mortality rate becomes. Additionally, we know the flu can be very deadly to children 1 to 9. Covid 19 however has had a minimal mortality rate in that age group. 

I would never spread misinformation but I've certainly seen plenty of it being spread. My whole point was to put this in the context of history and to suggest everyone take a deep breath. We know that those who contracted the Asian flu(H2N2) or the Hong Kong flu (H3N2), acquired what appears to lifetime immunity to those strains. Does that positively impact their potential immunity to Covid 19? We don't know. Many of the deaths from Covid 19 are coming from pneumonia. If you have been diligent and received both Prevnar 13 and Pneumovax 23 does that increase your chances of survival? We don't know. The current data points to the greatest risk of death being among those with underlying health issues or compromised pulmonary function ( smoking, COPD, etc.). The best advice I've seen is to wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands. 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Aloha 1

[susiesan]

20 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Oceania rarely does it that way. When they have a cruise that needs filling, one might typically get a phone call from their TA outlining the new deal. You rarely will see those deals in print. I hear occasionally online TA might run deals, but I’ve never seen them. You’d have to spend time running down internet ads!
 

 

I had my TA contact O to see what they would do for me so I would not cancel. As of today, nothing. I will 

monitor over the next few weeks until March 26 when final payment is due.

[Wishing on a star]

While I do know that there are untold numbers of unverified milder cases...

From what we know, from the known and verifiable cases, like from the Diamond Princess, I would not hesitate to believe that this virus has a much higher account of serious and deadly cases.

 

Look at the numbers in Italy now.

 

I also know that there are those out there who would have an interest in downplaying the situation and trying to quell panic.

 

 

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Wishing on a star

[Hawaiidan]

22 hours ago, Wishing on a star said:

While I do know that there are untold numbers of unverified milder cases...

From what we know, from the known and verifiable cases, like from the Diamond Princess, I would not hesitate to believe that this virus has a much higher account of serious and deadly cases.

 

Look at the numbers in Italy now.

 

I also know that there are those out there who would have an interest in downplaying the situation and trying to quell panic.

 

 

 

Well....here is a thought.    Maybe the intensity and seriousness of the cases on Princess, is a function of a very confined population, which is older age  susceptible and the huge number of passengers  in that niche? 

Look why NORO is so common on ships.... and it looks like the larger the ship  the more the potential for any disease.

 

Too, the reaction to the whole thing is panic promoted by the media ( which loves bad news)  and politicians trying to  promote their own political agenda.   Both of whom thrive on panic and  love promoting it.    

[Wishing on a star]

Very true, on both cases.

 

[blackfoot]

It's not about the flu,virus or whatever it is, it's not the big issue! It's about whether a Oceania cruiser wants to spend $20K for a boat ride because there are few or no ports available. And, how do you get home when you might port a thousand miles from your original departure. Now you have to buy a ticket at the market rate- $5K/ or more if one is available. It's the poor Cruise experience and the logistics nightmare to get home if countries close their borders. I know after living in several places in Europe that they are hypersensitive to issues like these and they WILL close borders etc to isolate.

[LHT28]

latest  from WHO

 

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

[Wishing on a star]

Thank You.

Very good information.

 

I do suspect that this info and estimates are valid.

I would also remind people that with COVID 19 the very young do not seem to be at such risk.  (perhaps because of their young developing immune systems that are responsive to a new pathogen???)

While, of course, they can be vulnerable to the flu.

Older people seem to be the very most vulnerable to the most serious illness and fatality.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by Wishing on a star

[Hawaiidan]

While many are considering canceling... and pondering the impact of the out of control panic there is very potential to recover and even profit from it........ travel related and consumer stocks like Disney, NCl, RCCL etc are at huge lows.... buying into these may prove very productive...  if you cruise expense is more than 90 days away that gives the market  a huge possibility of recovery.    Its see-sawing  thousands of points on uncertainty 

 When that uncertainty is lifted.......POW   you might be able to pay for your cruise or a good portion, from the lemmings who are jumping over the cliff of reason and logic...... totaly emotion driven    We have lost focus that 160 million in the US have got the regular Flu and 18,000 have died.    This Corona thing has a whopping 6 deaths in the us.....  Look at the big picture !!!!

 

NOW  with China infections doping line a stone  this panic is going to be short lived. when the media gets bored with not getting anymore reaction from their doom stories. and the super  primary election s are over no need to scream to get votes.........just saying worth looking at     You can safely go to the movies, visit Hawaii and eat at Chinese  restaurants...............

Edited March 4, 2020 by Hawaiidan

[Paulchili]

41 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

NOW  with China infections doping line a stone  this panic is going to be short lived.

They may be dropping like a stone in China but rising like a tide elsewhere and in US

[susiesan]

Farther out a few months, there should be no problems with cruises. But for anyone cruising in the next few months, flying overseas for your cruise could be problematic. UA just announced cutbacks in flights both domestic and international:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united-cutting-flights-in-april-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html

 

Someone may be willing and wanting to go on their cruise but they may not be able to get there and back. What happens if half of the booked people either cancel or can't get to their cruise? Would O sail with half or less full ships?