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Buying Carnival RCL NCLH stock to get Shareholder Benfit OBC for Australasian crusers..


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1 hour ago, amatuercruiser said:

 

 

Small ups and downs of share market one thing...... but CCL (OFFICIALLY) Loosing $4.5 Billion in a quarter I think is unrecoverable. Hertz, Carnival, RCL,Norwegian I think are heading for Chap 11 .. (Through no fault of the cruise lines.)

 

And I have shares in all of those. Luckily I believe they can survive :-)

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5 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

I don't have your optimism, I think they (cruise lines) will survive

 

How?

 

Lets assume 6 more months no USA Alaska cruises.

Japan Feb 2021 Maybe

Europe Jan 2021 maybe

 

Carnival lost 4.5 Billion last quarter.

 

2 More quarters layup costs at say 3.2 Billion a Quarter.

Interest payments on Junk Bonds at approx 12% for 7 months

 

Carnival Current Market  Capitalization

 $12.516B

 

There Losses are nearly bigger than the capitalization of Carnival.

 

I wish it was not true ..Carnival has done nothing wrong its just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

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7 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

 

How?

 

Lets assume 6 more months no USA Alaska cruises.

Japan Feb 2021 Maybe

Europe Jan 2021 maybe

 

Carnival lost 4.5 Billion last quarter.

 

2 More quarters layup costs at say 3.2 Billion a Quarter.

Interest payments on Junk Bonds at approx 12% for 7 months

 

Carnival Current Market  Capitalization

 $12.516B

 

There Losses are nearly bigger than the capitalization of Carnival.

 

I wish it was not true ..Carnival has done nothing wrong its just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 

It really does depend how long it goes for. I've been avoiding them (as mentioned earlier in the thread) since this started, as the risk was too high. That's why they're still raising funds now, and firming plans to sell things off, because the duration of this will potentially stretch them more. I'm not willing to say they will make it through - though of course they'll try everything they can to do so.

 

Also, interestingly, in the US side RCL have now taken some refunds out to 120 days to make payment (not that it's happened yet) so there's definitely a cash flow crunch being felt. And they can't just indefinitely raise new funds, and sell off ships to a market that doesn't want them.

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9 minutes ago, amatuercruiser said:

Is any one considering Buying Shares in Carnival or NCL,or RCL to get the Shareholder benefit?

 

Yes. I'm bullish on this, with vaccination rates being so high. Have you seen the amount of ships planned to enter Qatar in 2022 for the world cup? :classic_blink:

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16 minutes ago, ollyoeno said:

 

Yes. I'm bullish on this,

Which Cruise stock are you thinking of?

 

I am thinking Carnival because they have the following Subsidiary lines in Australian Waters

P&O

Princess

HAL

Carnival.

Cunard

 

Plus Carnival shares are about half the price of RCL.

 

But I am very afraid of the huge debt these cruise lines are now carrying. Something like $8 Billion debt  has ballooned to $28 Billion for Carnival.

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9 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

Which Cruise stock are you thinking of?

 

I am thinking Carnival because they have the following Subsidiary lines in Australian Waters

P&O

Princess

HAL

Carnival.

Cunard

 

Plus Carnival shares are about half the price of RCL.

 

But I am very afraid of the huge debt these cruise lines are now carrying. Something like $8 Billion debt  has ballooned to $28 Billion for Carnival.

You only need 100 shares to get the OBC. There is no point in buying any more as it doesn't give you any extra OBC. 

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10 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

Which Cruise stock are you thinking of?

 

I am thinking Carnival because they have the following Subsidiary lines in Australian Waters

P&O

Princess

HAL

Carnival.

Cunard

 

Plus Carnival shares are about half the price of RCL.

 

But I am very afraid of the huge debt these cruise lines are now carrying. Something like $8 Billion debt  has ballooned to $28 Billion for Carnival.

 

Carnival, RCL. Ideal time right now, given the recent announcements.

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28 minutes ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

So you haven't cruised since?

No cruising since Fairstar 40 years ago.

 

I had Norwegian Cruise line ringing me up all the time offering better and better deals to take a cruise from Singapore and then the Princess Ship got stuck in Japan with Hundreds of Covid and then it was all cancelled.

Edited by amatuercruiser
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46 minutes ago, amatuercruiser said:

No cruising since Fairstar 40 years ago.

 

I had Norwegian Cruise line ringing me up all the time offering better and better deals to take a cruise from Singapore and then the Princess Ship got stuck in Japan with Hundreds of Covid and then it was all cancelled.

Cruising has changed considerably since then. You really need to do a lot more research before deciding to buy shares in any of the cruise corporations. Even try a cruise first - you might find you hate modern cruising.

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I suggest people do a risk benefit analysis before purchasing or investing in any shares.

Yes, having cruise line shares provide some OBC on cruises but not always, sometimes it is not combinable with some cruises. Also consider how long you plan on holding them, Carnival has currently got a hold on paying out dividends, so yields are non existent.

In terms of cruise shares.

CCL - Carnival went as low as $8.50 Usd back in March 2020, with a high of $72.

RCL.had a low of $23 and a high of $133.

NCL had a low of $8.50 and a high of $60.

 

Do you due diligence before finding out you have shares that are not providing any returns.

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3 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

 

CCL - Carnival went as low as $8.50 Usd back in March 2020, with a high of $72.

RCL.had a low of $23 and a high of $133.

NCL had a low of $8.50 and a high of $60.

 

Do you due diligence before finding out you have shares that are not providing any returns.

If I do any due diligence on Carnival, then the answer is don't buy the shares. But If I look at the coolness of saying to someone "We got a "FREE" $250 shareholder benefit on the cruise"

Then maybe its slightly wort it.

 

But as Bruce of Travelling with Bruce said these companies are now so indebted they are all technically junk bonds and normal Investment Funds can no longer legally invest in Cruse lines. Which leaves borrowing at 14% interest as there only option.

 

I was looking at the probability of Carnival going bankrupt on google search. The consensus of responses was about a 50 / 50 chance. Too much debt not enough income. The New York Stock exchange is very fussy about Bankruptcy rules.

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4 hours ago, OzKiwiJJ said:

Even try a cruise first - you might find you hate modern cruising.

I sort of hope that does not happen.

Before I loved the free food idea but I eat less now so maybe a cruise possibly wont be that special.

 

I hope not as I think now I might enjoy the shore excursions more.

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7 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

If I do any due diligence on Carnival, then the answer is don't buy the shares. But If I look at the coolness of saying to someone "We got a "FREE" $250 shareholder benefit on the cruise"

Then maybe its slightly wort it.

 

But as Bruce of Travelling with Bruce said these companies are now so indebted they are all technically junk bonds and normal Investment Funds can no longer legally invest in Cruse lines. Which leaves borrowing at 14% interest as there only option.

 

I was looking at the probability of Carnival going bankrupt on google search. The consensus of responses was about a 50 / 50 chance. Too much debt not enough income. The New York Stock exchange is very fussy about Bankruptcy rules.

I personally don't  think bankruptcy is in the future, if it was going to happen, it would have already. The ships are sailing now.

As for only getting OBC, then it is a poor investment and would be cheaper to just buy/gift OBC for yourself as needed.

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12 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

 

As for only getting OBC, then it is a poor investment and would be cheaper to just buy/gift OBC for yourself as needed.

I agree completely Mathematically gifting yourself $2000 worth of Self funded OBC makes a TONNE more sense than buying HIGHLY leveraged , no dividend Carnival stock.

 

It is such a pity.

Edited by amatuercruiser
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3 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

I am sure the dividends will recommence within a year or so when cruising has recovered somewhat 

I think that,  possibly the Big Cruise companies will go Bankrupt and then restructure and resurrect without the Covid 19 debt pile and then reinvent themselves as Viable cruise lines.

 

The CEO of Royal Caribbean just left. He would be the ideal head for RCL 2.

 

Traveling with Bruce is saying that the creditors are treating Cruise lines as Junk Class entities. He also pointed out that a Slight revaluation of a asset or increase in borrowings etc could trigger mandated contract clauses in loans etc were the interest rate could automatically raise etc which could then momentarily cause a cruise line to be in breach of insolvency rules etc.

 

In the end I dont care. I just really hope I get to go on a cruise. soon.

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On 11/15/2021 at 1:53 PM, amatuercruiser said:

I was looking at the probability of Carnival going bankrupt on google search. The consensus of responses was about a 50 / 50 chance. Too much debt not enough income. The New York Stock exchange is very fussy about Bankruptcy rules.

 

How many people do Carnival and their subsidiaries employ / support worldwide and what is their main theatre of operation?

 

Would Washington allow it?

 

Edited by ollyoeno
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