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Unless you really need to get the OBC from the stock now This has a long way to bottom out.  Last time we had a recession in 2009 it hit 5.00 which was crazy cheap.

 

unlikely to hit that now,  but the point is a reference for just how low it can go.   I believe the previous high when it went to 5.00 was around $30 or so at the time,  so it dropped down to 1/6 value.  RCI has half the ships then, but the point is that it’s a mass sell off in a recession.

 

If RCI has a ship with corona or the Caribbean gets corona it’s hard to say just how low it can go.

 

Its definitely not a bad buy now,  just be prepared for it to fall even more if you buy in now.

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RCL has not yet been affected by the pandemic because officially there's still no pandemic. It's quite possible that RCL will be at the forefront of bearish trades all the way until general market capitulation date. I think it was March 6, 2009 last time talking heads announced that it was a doomsday. At the moment RCL's P/E is barely below 10 and the yield is less than 3.5%. That's far from being an excellent value at a time of crisis.

I have no intention to short RCL (or any other stocks) but I do want to get in at a good opportunity and hold it forever. The yield would need to be above 5% before I'll pull the trigger with market conditions as they are now. Price would have to go below $56 before 5% yield is reached. I wouldn't be surprised if RCL decides to suspend dividends because it will likely prefer not to pay investors instead of leaving their employees without pay or customers without compensation.

I'd also welcome a decision by RCL to suspend dividends if they come across an opportunity to acquire on the cheap a few additional beach head properties around the world to further expand their "Perfect Day at ..." concept. A time of crisis is the time of opportunities for well-run companies. I like the way RCL operates in comparison to many other hospitality companies.

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2 hours ago, rimmit said:

Unless you really need to get the OBC from the stock now This has a long way to bottom out.  Last time we had a recession in 2009 it hit 5.00 which was crazy cheap.

 

unlikely to hit that now,  but the point is a reference for just how low it can go.   I believe the previous high when it went to 5.00 was around $30 or so at the time,  so it dropped down to 1/6 value.  RCI has half the ships then, but the point is that it’s a mass sell off in a recession.

 

If RCI has a ship with corona or the Caribbean gets corona it’s hard to say just how low it can go.

 

Its definitely not a bad buy now,  just be prepared for it to fall even more if you buy in now.

We were on Radiance in Mexico in 2009. There was the captains get together in the back of the ship in the club area. End of the talk the captain said in all seriousness, our stock is cheap, buy all you can afford and watch it grow.  

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2 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

We were on Radiance in Mexico in 2009. There was the captains get together in the back of the ship in the club area. End of the talk the captain said in all seriousness, our stock is cheap, buy all you can afford and watch it grow.  


We were on the Jewel in Mar of 2009.  All they talked about in the top tier event was the stock price and how it was rock bottom and how RCI would survive this and come back stronger than ever.

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Apples and oranges comparing 2007 recession with current situation.    Then Fed was able to flood markets with liquidity and eventually restore confidence allowing markets to recover.  Unless Fed is working on a Corona vaccine don't see them being any help today.  

 

If god forbid one passenger on a Caribbean cruise tests positive.  Imagine almost 8000 passengers and crew quarantined for weeks on an Oasis size ship.  Ports will close.  Bookings will dry up and call centers will be working around the clock handling cancellations.  

 

Can't consider buying RCL until situation stabilizes.

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18 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Apples and oranges comparing 2007 recession with current situation.    Then Fed was able to flood markets with liquidity and eventually restore confidence allowing markets to recover.  Unless Fed is working on a Corona vaccine don't see them being any help today.  

 

If god forbid one passenger on a Caribbean cruise tests positive.  Imagine almost 8000 passengers and crew quarantined for weeks on an Oasis size ship.  Ports will close.  Bookings will dry up and call centers will be working around the clock handling cancellations.  

 

Can't consider buying RCL until situation stabilizes.

You make very good points. Considering the way islands responded to the MSC ship, if a ship ends up with a true case of Corona in the Caribbean there is going to be turmoil down there.

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9 minutes ago, therealblackknight said:

 

There is a FAQ here about shareholder benefits...

https://www.rclinvestor.com/faqs/shareholder-benefit/

Seems to me the list of restrictions for getting the benefit is a bit sparse. People have reported having difficulty obtaining the credit with many of RCI's fake sale rates. I also don't see where it states not combinable with C&A discounts.

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8 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Seems to me the list of restrictions for getting the benefit is a bit sparse. People have reported having difficulty obtaining the credit with many of RCI's fake sale rates. I also don't see where it states not combinable with C&A discounts.

That all changed last June 1'st.  The stock OBC is now basically combinable with everything for cruises booked after June 1 2019

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