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RCL Stock


heidikay
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Just now, A&L_Ont said:

 

Exactly.  I think this is when cruises prices will drop, especially if the market is stagnant.

Capacity is another issue.  

 

10 years ago RC had total capacity around 90K berths across all brands and sister companies. 

 

Today RC has total capacity of around 145K berths across all brands and sister companies.  Should demand lessen or things like Asian and Med seasons get wiped out Royal could be faced with wet docking some of their capacity.  And a ship is like a horse, it eats every day.  Those ships will still have some crew and staff aboard for maintenance, there is the cost of the maintenance materials, the cost of the docking...and the mortgages don't stop.  There's only so many ports and so much capacity other regions can absorb.  

 

I wouldn't say Doomsday is here for RC by any measure, but the horizon looks tough.  

 

Next up; dividend cuts and debt restructuring.  

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I read that RC has $11.8bn in debt and they have very little cash. How are they going to service that debt? A big chuck of the European business departs from a country which is a no-go area. I don’t hold stock but I’d be concerned for the future of the company. 

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12 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

I read that RC has $11.8bn in debt and they have very little cash. How are they going to service that debt? A big chuck of the European business departs from a country which is a no-go area. I don’t hold stock but I’d be concerned for the future of the company. 

According to 2019 YE Balance Sheet, debt is $8.4B, cash on hand is about $250M.

 

mac_tlc

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14 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

I read that RC has $11.8bn in debt and they have very little cash. How are they going to service that debt? A big chuck of the European business departs from a country which is a no-go area. I don’t hold stock but I’d be concerned for the future of the company. 

Spain just reached the 1000 cases mark today, with Madrid jumping from 202 cases to 469 cases in just 24 hours. This being said, there have only been 17 deaths in Spain. 

 

That will certainly spread to Barcelona in the coming days.  So, you will have both Italy and Spain heavily affected for the start of the cruise season. 

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2 minutes ago, mac_tlc said:

According to 2019 YE Balance Sheet, debt is $8.4B, cash on hand is about $250M.

 

mac_tlc


That cash won’t last long in the current climate. As of now the market cap is only around $10.5bn.

There is also the new fleet costs and amplification. 
I have nothing to gain from talking them down but it doesn’t look too healthy to my amateur view. 

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A week ago I was thinking about picking up some RCI stock on sale. This week though I'm starting to get nervous about them actually making it through this. I doubt they'll fold forever, but I feel like there's now a decent chance they'll have to declare bankruptcy and restructure, wiping out any stocks I purchase. Of course this could all blow over sooner rather than later and things could rebound, but it's looking like a riskier bet this week than last thanks to the state department announcement.

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6 hours ago, rimmit said:

No way to know....  but if I was a betting man it would go lower.  I have stated this in multiple stock threads so I apologize if this seems repetitive,  but in the Great Recession it hit $5 despite there being no real basis for it to justify that price.  But when people panic all bets are off.

 

It's currently between $49 - $50. I purchased a while back a bunch of shares at around $33. While I'm in it for the long haul, I'm starting to wonder whether I should sell now and keep a little gain or wait it out again for the "long haul". Appreciate some feedback from some of the experts here. Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, Tall-Cruiser said:

 

It's currently between $49 - $50. I purchased a while back a bunch of shares at around $33. While I'm in it for the long haul, I'm starting to wonder whether I should sell now and keep a little gain or wait it out again for the "long haul". Appreciate some feedback from some of the experts here. Thanks.

No one here can determine your comfort level.  Nothing ever wrong with taking a healthy profit margin.  

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7 minutes ago, chadcf said:

A week ago I was thinking about picking up some RCI stock on sale. This week though I'm starting to get nervous about them actually making it through this. I doubt they'll fold forever, but I feel like there's now a decent chance they'll have to declare bankruptcy and restructure, wiping out any stocks I purchase. Of course this could all blow over sooner rather than later and things could rebound, but it's looking like a riskier bet this week than last thanks to the state department announcement.

The risk as I see it is that governments will be fed up with having to quarantine 3000-6000 people everytime somebody on board a cruise catches corona. So there's probably a high likelyhood that they will ban cruises in the US all together for a time. With how overstreched the northern Italian hospital system is at the moment and if that affects more regions, the same thing will happen in Europe.

 

There's just won't be enough resources to cope and the public won't accept that valuable resources are spent on "foreign tourists". The cruise companies surviving this cash squeeze will be winners when a vaccine is found.

Edited by Forcemark
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11 minutes ago, Forcemark said:

The risk as I see it is that governments will be fed up with having to quarantine 3000-6000 people everytime somebody on board a cruise catches corona. So there's probably a high likelyhood that they will ban cruises in the US all together for a time.

 

 

Which is why I am not touching this stock at the moment.  This thing goes to single digits if these ships stop sailing.

With RCL in debt for 8.4B and no income to pay the notes this thing will get real ugly real quick.  


Fingers crossed that warmer weather and containment measures start to show some decline in the spread of this stuff.
Until that happens I will sit on the sidelines with my cash grasped firmly in hand. 

Edited by dasmonkey
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10 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

Nothing ever wrong with taking a healthy profit margin.  


If it were me I’d sell now and possibly invest the profit in future stocks when it gets close to bottoming out. 

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7 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:


If it were me I’d sell now and possibly invest the profit in future stocks when it gets close to bottoming out. 

 

With the drastic movements of the past two weeks; personally I would sell now also.  48-ish when owned for 33 is still very good 

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46 minutes ago, Tall-Cruiser said:

 

It's currently between $49 - $50. I purchased a while back a bunch of shares at around $33. While I'm in it for the long haul, I'm starting to wonder whether I should sell now and keep a little gain or wait it out again for the "long haul". Appreciate some feedback from some of the experts here. Thanks.


Your strategy is totally determined by your goals and risk tolerance.

 

I took an approach where I bought a bunch around $6.00 in 2009, sold half at $30 just to make some profit and then Sold the rest at $96 just the last two weeks.  Did I time the market perfectly....nope.  But I made a decent profit.

 

If I was you (and I am not). I would either buy more now or sometime between now and the bottom (impossible to predict) OR I would sell everything now hoping this is not the bottom and using the profits from your sale now and reinvesting it back in RCI or RCI and some other bargain stocks right now like NCL or CCL.

 

Ultimately no one on this forum can predict the future and we do not know your goals, risk tolerance, etc. 
 

There is always the risk (albeit small) that if you sold now it can go up after you sell and then you wouldn’t be able to buy as many shares to get back in. 

Edited by rimmit
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On 2/26/2020 at 9:12 PM, Goodtime Cruizin said:

77ish, 66ish, 53ish are support levels that I see.  These I think will eventually be tested. 


That was nice & quick short position to 52.  Im taking my initial investment back to cash and leaving the profits in a long position now. In for the Long run at 49. If it crashes here, I think the next support level is at 34ish. But I’m in now thinking it holds. 

Edited by Goodtime Cruizin
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14 minutes ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:


That was nice & quick short position to 52.  Im taking my initial investment back to cash and leaving the profits in a long position now. In for the Long run at 49. If it crashes here, I think the next support level is at 34ish. But I’m in now thinking it holds. 


Nice.  I shorted to 70.  Shoulda held longer but I always get nervous when markets get like this.   Will buy back in once the Coronavirus starts to show some early signs of improvement....  which is technically now as China and South Korea seems to have gotten their act together.  Once I feel like the US seems capable of getting this under control will buy back in.  Done more trading the last two weeks than the last 11 years lol.

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Believe the tell for playing cruise stocks are the airlines.  AAL and UAL are down over 50% ytd.  Passenger volume dropped over 30% in the last week and media are showing video of empty terminals at LaGuardia and Heathrow.  Many need to fly but no one needs to cruise.  Once situation stabilizes airline volume will begin to recover followed by airline stocks.  After  that you can start watching for a turn in cruise line bookings.

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The other  issue not being discussed anywhere  is another reason  stocks are tanking is the oil fight between Saudi Arabia  and Russia. Since they could not agree on an oil production reduction  Saudi said the hell with the supply and plan on flooding the market  So this is  another piece in the stock market chaos.

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33 minutes ago, Tony O said:

The other  issue not being discussed anywhere  is another reason  stocks are tanking is the oil fight between Saudi Arabia  and Russia. Since they could not agree on an oil production reduction  Saudi said the hell with the supply and plan on flooding the market  So this is  another piece in the stock market chaos.

 

Cheap oil is good for most stocks.  Might hurt a few energy companies, but all other companies would benefit from this type of fight.  It is when OPEC restricts oil to drive up prices that stocks tank.  

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It won't benefit the cruise lines.

 

Houston's economy is based largely on the oil industry. If a price war between the Saudis and Russia keeps going, the Texas oil fields can't make a profit and shut down (they are already unprofitable at today's prices). Houston refineries close. Tens of thousands of Texans (and employees in the industry in other gulf states) are laid off. The cruise industry loses a giant customer base.

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2 hours ago, ed01106 said:

 

Cheap oil is good for most stocks.  Might hurt a few energy companies, but all other companies would benefit from this type of fight.  It is when OPEC restricts oil to drive up prices that stocks tank.  

that was true when US was net importer of oil.  Now net exporter.  CNBC today said 6 million American jobs are dependent on energy prices not collapsing.  In addition to traditional oil & gas companies this includes wind and solar companies and electric vehicles who are now less competitive.  

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if i was anyone to be concerned it would be royals lenders and not so much royal..   what bank wants to be stuck with a few hundred million dollar ship in an industry that is getting killed? pretty sure they could call someones bluff and say ok take it...

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