Jump to content
Cruise Critic Community

Recommended Posts

Carnival bonds have been down graded to BBB the 10/15 bonds are now at 13.122% YTM up from around 3% a week or so ago.

 

While longer term bonds are not as high, they are now all trading higher than original coupon price.  Considering that the 10 year is at less than one percent, the Bond market is certainly not positive on the future of CCL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, npcl said:

Any kind of bailout to the cruise industry would have to go through congress where it would encounter problems.  At most they might get a lender of last resort treatment, probably in a BK.  That would help the portions of the industry that is actually impact  the US,  would keep them running, but would not protect shareholders.

As it should. I will never ever see the point of bailing out a business that pays no US taxes and doesn't adhere to US labor laws. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

And yet a few minutes ago at his daily press briefing Trump spoke of how the cruise industry was just recently setting records, is a great industry and we have to help them.  "They will be taking care of people for years to come and paying tremendous taxes, tremendous taxes".  Either he's unaware of the cruise lines current tax situation or maybe paying US taxes will be the quid pro quo for obtaining aid.

 

By the way Merrill Lynch cut RCL to underperform (sell) this morning and reduced price target to $25.  No one on Wall St seems to fear bankruptcy though.

LOL yup 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

The last time I bought Royal it was $100 a share. Yes that was some time back. Sold it 3 months later for a $1,700.00 gain. I will just sit now. See what happens this time next year when I hope all this virus stuf is just about over and business for everyone comes back to almost normal. I think our economy being so strong certainly helps the bottom line. If the economy was week when this hhit. it would be far worse.

Me thinks you're in for a bit of a surprise in the coming months. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To put the bond market in perspective RCL  11/22 bonds are at YTM 16.791, CCL 10/15/20 now at 13.122 YTM

 

Starting to look like the bond market is expecting default.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, npcl said:

To put the bond market in perspective RCL  11/22 bonds are at YTM 16.791, CCL 10/15/20 now at 13.122 YTM

 

Starting to look like the bond market is expecting default.

All bbb and under spreads have blown out in the last week.

 

So long as sailing resumes in fall believe possibility of bankruptcy is a very remote.  Lenders recognize the current problem is temporary and not fault of cruise lines.  Business model is sound.  Patience provides much better opportunity to get repaid.  Washington might not provide direct financial support but still doesn't want businesses to fail.  Debt can be extended or restructured.  With a current market cap of only $6B RCL could be an inexpensive acquisition target for an entertainment company (Disney? Comcast?) or private equity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

And yet a few minutes ago at his daily press briefing Trump spoke of how the cruise industry was just recently setting records, is a great industry and we have to help them.  "They will be taking care of people for years to come and paying tremendous taxes, tremendous taxes".  Either he's unaware of the cruise lines current tax situation or maybe paying US taxes will be the quid pro quo for obtaining aid.

 

By the way Merrill Lynch cut RCL to underperform (sell) this morning and reduced price target to $25.  No one on Wall St seems to fear bankruptcy though.

 

The only thing I can think of is that maybe some one explained to him how many jobs in the US are supported by the cruise industry and that generates tax revenue.  Some of those are the Airlines, hotels. restaurants,  cruise terminal workers. provision supplies.   Sometimes he seems to not understand the underlining details of what is going on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess since no one is cruising anymore, I kind of started a Stock Critic Forum. I kind of like the change of pace from the repeated questions about cruising, that get asked over and over again.

 

This thread was kind of in quicksand until I brought up a question last night..............It's interesting I'm learning alot of new things, Keep it up......thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not sure it this is the current situation but as I recall from years back the funding for building the ships was arranged by and backed by the governments where the shipyards are located.  It created jobs for them.  

With interest rates down to nothing there could attempt some refinancing,    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

And I don't feel as though they should be seeing as they don't pay any US taxes. Royal is based in Liberia....does Liberia have enough to bail them out??

Good point. In fact has any other country offered to help bail them ? Probably not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

I am not sure it this is the current situation but as I recall from years back the funding for building the ships was arranged by and backed by the governments where the shipyards are located.  It created jobs for them.  

With interest rates down to nothing there could attempt some refinancing,    

They were all American shipyards.  Now I think they mostly only build Military vessels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I guess since no one is cruising anymore, I kind of started a Stock Critic Forum. I kind of like the change of pace from the repeated questions about cruising, that get asked over and over again.

 

This thread was kind of in quicksand until I brought up a question last night..............It's interesting I'm learning alot of new things, Keep it up......thanks.

I am looking for different forms of entertainment.  Basically been in lockdown for 4 weeks already.  I have at least 5 more weeks to go.  I do occasionally get to wave at someone walking their dog. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, fred30 said:

They were all American shipyards.  Now I think they mostly only build Military vessels.

No, I am talking about the Finish and German shipyards that build the cruise ships.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

All bbb and under spreads have blown out in the last week.

 

So long as sailing resumes in fall believe possibility of bankruptcy is a very remote.  Lenders recognize the current problem is temporary and not fault of cruise lines.  Business model is sound.  Patience provides much better opportunity to get repaid.  Washington might not provide direct financial support but still doesn't want businesses to fail.  Debt can be extended or restructured.  With a current market cap of only $6B RCL could be an inexpensive acquisition target for an entertainment company (Disney? Comcast?) or private equity

Keep in mind that CCL was not BBB last week.  Also did a check of all BBB bonds, and CCL and RCL were in the top 4 in YTM.  So while BBB rates have gone up in general, the only company higher than RCL is an oil producing company and we know how close many of those are to BK at the current oil prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

And I don't feel as though they should be seeing as they don't pay any US taxes. Royal is based in Liberia....does Liberia have enough to bail them out??

Liberia has a lot of diamonds that can be turned into pricey bling.

Edited by sfaaa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone else buy at under $27.50 today? Did not pay the lowest price but was up a few cents at the close.  

 

I’ll now wait and see what happens next.  Dollar cost averaging has always been good to me.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, DaKahuna said:

Anyone else buy at under $27.50 today? Did not pay the lowest price but was up a few cents at the close.  

 

I’ll now wait and see what happens next.  Dollar cost averaging has always been good to me.

 

 

 

I’m a hardcore Royal fan. My buy order for 100 shares kicked in at $28 today. I have another order for 100 shares at $22. I’m conflicted if I want that one to go through. But I am in this for the long haul. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Wally Alligator said:

 

 

As to RCL stock - this thread - it is gonna be a rocket when things clear up.  Question is when will things clear up and ships resume sailing at 100% occupancy.

From your mouth to God's ear.  My husband is mad that I  didn't sell but I've rode the dips down and the prices skyrocketing.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

PLEASE - There are more than enough topics more appropriate for your discussion on COVID-19 -- if you can't talk about RCL stock and its prices, please refrain from responding to off topic discussions. 

 

Looking at today's futures - the broad market is poised to open approximately 800 points down, which will erase yesterday's gains.   RCL is currently positioned to open at $26.00 a share -- down from yesterday's close. 

 

 

Edited by DaKahuna

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, DaKahuna said:

PLEASE - There are more than enough topics more appropriate for your discussion on COVID-19 -- if you can't talk about RCL stock and its prices, please refrain from responding to off topic discussions. 

 

Looking at today's futures - the broad market is poised to open approximately 800 points down, which will erase yesterday's gains.   RCL is currently positioned to open at $26.00 a share -- down from yesterday's close. 

 

 

So, I guess the big question is when do I want to jump and buy it?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Colorado Babe said:

So, I guess the big question is when do I want to jump and buy it?  

Things that will happen before I buy.

 

1. Both WHO and CDC declares the pandemic to have ended.

 

2. Cruise lines resume operations.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand that the RCL stock price is directly related to the so-called virus and media driven pandemic, but let's focus on the STOCK.  

Saying you know someone who knows someone's sister's brother's uncle's lawyer, who knows their mother's sister's aunt who has the "virus" is under quarantine is completely irrevellant.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone buying the stock right now is nuts. There is SO much more bad news to come. Namely the extension of the suspensions. CDC says social distancing should last at least 8 weeks and many say it will last longer. The fact that you can still book a cruise for April 12 out of FL is a joke. June is the best case scenario IMO.

And there is no way they will be able to bail out the cruise lines. There is not enough $ to go around. Every industry in the US is going to need help and they are now saying 20% unemployment. That is low IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Forum Assistance
      • SPECIAL EVENT: Q&A with the Quark Expeditions Team!
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Member Cruise Reviews
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...