Jump to content

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, irzero said:

If I'm honest I'd rather buy shell oil.

The dividend is 15% and worth more than free credit on a cruise ship. Oil has a bigger chance of price recovery than cruise lines do at the moment.

If I wasnt sitting on a paper loss already on royal I'd correct my mistake

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Remember reading that since WWII Royal Dutch Shell has never cut dividend.  Shale oil players are highly leveraged and may not survive but deep pockets majors will weather the storm.

 

For RCL dividend is toast.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, irzero said:

Especially since oil hedges the price so crashes like this dont hurt as much and spikes in price dont benefit as much.

When they say sales have ground to a halt in the case of cruise ships that has never been more literal a definition.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Well you know why Carnival is call the fun ship. It was a great day when the ship hit bottom. Same as the stock now. I hope it does not take long to hit bottom, then the only way is UP!

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, PatMunits said:

^^^ This. Thank you rimmit for this insight on how the stock behaved last time there was a crisis. You posted this observation when the stock was $82 three weeks ago. There were a few days since then when the price was up over 10% intraday, but I kept waiting because North America was still expecting more bad news.


Thanks.   I do not have a crystal ball and could have easily been just as wrong as I was right.   Looks like the stock still Has a bit to fall still.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

How do yo know how much is available?

You don't, it is fluid, it changes all the time. You just get lucky I guess. I've been doing this for many years and there has been a few times the price got down to my bid and I didn't get it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, irzero said:

The herd immunity was an idea floated it was never enacted but if I'm honest that is what is happening anyway.

Schools closed due to media and public pressure. Just like the lockdown.



Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Not enough teachers.

Link to post
Share on other sites

been watching rccl stock closely lately. Just a thought for you more senior investors,what is your best guess to what would happen to share price if royal announced another 30 day shut down on top of current one? Im not looking for reasons as to why they wont do that or probability. Just say they do......will it stay where it is?drop by 50% ? Etc

 

also if stock were to hit 0 what does that mean? To investors? Carnival is very low right now. I know they were never as high as royals shares.

Edited by rtazz17
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, RoyalC said:

Good bounce off the low, not sure where it is going short term from here. Either short covering, or reaction to Trump saying plans to bailout/help cruise liners today. Timing suspicious.

Lets hope I didn't get to greedy by waiting. 😞

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Lets hope I didn't get to greedy by waiting. 😞


i don’t have a crystal ball, but I don’t see any good news coming for the cruises Lines anytime soon.  They keep talking bailout but even some politicians yesterday were discussing exactly why cruise lines are left off the bailout plan.  “They are not American companies.”

 

Also since you are new to the market,  here’s some advice.  You will never buy at the absolute lowest low,  and you will never sell at the high.   That’s just how it goes.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

 

You lose. Your money is gone and your shares are wiped out. 

Ok cause I heard they can sell company regather and your shares are revalued. But im a novice and just reading a lot to educate myself.

Edited by rtazz17
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, rimmit said:


i don’t have a crystal ball, but I don’t see any good news coming for the cruises Lines anytime soon.  They keep talking bailout but even some politicians yesterday were discussing exactly why cruise lines are left off the bailout plan.  “They are not American companies.”

 

Also since you are new to the market,  here’s some advice.  You will never buy at the absolute lowest low,  and you will never sell at the high.   That’s just how it goes.

Cant see how we can bail out cruise companies. Like you said,no or very little paid taxes to us and cruising is non essential .. its not like airlines which are essential and most are U.S. based.

Edited by rtazz17
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, rtazz17 said:

Ok cause I heard they can sell company regather and your shares are revalued.

 

If they go bankrupt you are wiped out.  

 

No one is buying these companies.  Their books have always been way out of wack, supported by monster revenues.  Absent revenue they are all in big danger in very little time. Talks of bail outs are not only premature; no way to know how long this crisis continues, but the US government really is not likely to bail out cruise industry. 

 

In my opinion announcing further shutdowns will have more negative impact on the stocks driving prices down.  Once CCL and RCL announce dividend cuts that will drive down prices.  Eventually they will not have the credit rating to borrow more money, they will not be able to service their massive debt, and that's the end of things. 

 

Although I have put aside some "fun money" watching these cruise stocks they are not at the bottom and any investment in a cruise line now is simply playing roulette with your money and betting on red or black; failure or survival. It is not something to do with limited funds you can't lose, retirement money, for new investors, etc...

 

When the crisis subsides and sailings have all clear is a time to buy, and buy on the way up.  Getting in at 20 because it was 135 a few months ago is arbitrary and there is no end in sight to the crisis and no historical precedent for guidance.  

 

Cash is king.  Lots of guys getting rich shorting everything still. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, rtazz17 said:

been watching rccl stock closely lately. Just a thought for you more senior investors,what is your best guess to what would happen to share price if royal announced another 30 day shut down on top of current one? Im not looking for reasons as to why they wont do that or probability. Just say they do......will it stay where it is?drop by 50% ? Etc

 

also if stock were to hit 0 what does that mean? To investors? Carnival is very low right now. I know they were never as high as royals shares.

Hard to say when government starts to get involved at a whim. Trump announced working on some help for cruise lines.

Just some general advise- Wall Street looks into the future, as much as six months. Wall Street likes certainly. Government has set a precedent for this virus. Shut everything down with low infection rate. See what happens when they start testing people. 

Stock hits zero? Then it is officially bk'ed. If stock hits certain price targets- say below $5, then fund managers are forced to sell. If stock drops dividend, some fund managers are again forced to sell.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Lets hope I didn't get to greedy by waiting. 😞

Look, you have been watching this stock for awhile. It has had several blimps where it has bumped up a few points but the trend has been downward. For all intents, the company is presently shut down for a month and probably longer while having to maintain its ships. Maybe there is some cash flow from people booking future cruises but that is a big maybe. People are cancelling stuff in their cruise planners, cruises are being cancelled, they are refunding money and at best holding on to it by issing FCC. RCI has been building pieces of machinery that costs around a billion dollars a copy like there is no tomorrow and as if everyone in the world is going to fall in love with cruising. And this is all around a product that involves leisure vacation and disposable income.

 

Now, do you really feel like this stock has hit bottom and is heading up?

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, rtazz17 said:

Ok cause I heard they can sell company regather and your shares are revalued. But im a novice and just reading a lot to educate myself.

I worked for a company that went to employee ownership after I retired, thank god. They were told it was just like printing money and the sky was the limit. The first few years it was, then the bubble burst and they ended up filing bankruptcy. A company finally bought them by paying off the debt, witch was substantial. About 1/3 of them got rehired but their stock was worthless. I have friends that stuck the entire 401k, some several hundreds of thousands of dollars and they got nothing. Don't count on it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

A company can be bailed out in the following way:
1. Government lends billions to a company in distress at 0.01% interest.
2. Company borrows all this money and pays off all or some of its debtors as per conditions set by the government.

As a result of this debt swap a failing company would no longer have any interest expense and just needs to make enough money to cover operational costs and even should be able to borrow more money privately (if needed) to acquire more assets or to pay all its workers.

If the bail out is properly structured then the company might be required (and fully capable) to keep so many employment positions open, and/or transfer some of its assets to USA, and/or issue favorable stock options to government. Regretfully, in many instances major stockholders of the company may simply decide to bankrupt the company instead.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

You don't, it is fluid, it changes all the time. You just get lucky I guess. I've been doing this for many years and there has been a few times the price got down to my bid and I didn't get it.

My trading software (Fidelity Active Trader Pro) shows number of shares available at the current bid and ask prices in both the quote and trade screens expressed in 100's of shares.  Current aftermarket quote is Bid $22 x 3, Ask $22.3 x 5.  Means there are 500 shares available to buy at $22.3 and buyer willing to take up to 300 shares off your hands at $22.   

Edited by Baron Barracuda
Link to post
Share on other sites

Bottom Line... right now RCL is moving with the market, although at an accelerated rate because of their shut down and bleak future.

 

RCL, and indeed the entire market, will not rebound until one event happens, and that is some good news about COVID-19.

 

Until the number of cases in the US slows or a vaccine is proven, the trend will be down.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, rtazz17 said:

Ok cause I heard they can sell company regather and your shares are revalued. But im a novice and just reading a lot to educate myself.

A more likely outcome is that the company declares BK prior to the stock hitting zero.  The do that with a recapitalization plan.  That usually mean that the share holders are then wiped out.  The current debt holders get shares in the restructured company in return for monies owed, as well as additional funds for the company to continue operating.

 

Any bailout for the cruise industry might be in conjunction with a BK, similar to what was done with GM, though hopefully one that follows traditional BK law.

 

In the case of GM,  the government was part of that recapitalization plan and loaned GM money, in exchange for stock to make sure that the company would continue.  One unusual aspect to the GM BK was that according to US BK law the debt holders are first in line.  In the case of GM the Union was moved ahead of the debt holders, otherwise the government would not have loaned the money.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Many and most of the companies that got bailout money did not go under. The longer this goes

the worse the odds. If it works out well, you can get this stock cheap as heck and make a killing

in time. Look at CCL and Oil Companies too like BP/Royal Dutch. For now I am observing. The news

gets worse everyday with closures. Keep in mind people are and will lose jobs the longer this goes on.

There will be a secondary recession due to job loss, stock retirement loss, and declining housing.

It will make you sicker than this Virus ever would, in most cases anyway. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just saw on NCL board a class action lawsuit has been filed by people who bought NCL stock during the month ending 3/12/20 claiming NCL made false and misleading statements.  Sounds like another one of those everybody loses but the lawyers cases.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I doubt there will be enough $ for a cruise bailout. Every industry will need a bailout not to mention all the $ going to the millions that will be out of work. Cruise industry is pretty far down the list.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Forum Assistance
      • Q&A with the Quark Expeditions Team: New Ship Ultramarine
      • Register Now for Cruise Critic Live Special Event: Explore the Remote World with Hurtigruten!
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...