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1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   


Very sorry for your loss.

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3 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

The luxury ocean liner industry did go thru something that might have been worse.  They adapted by selling most of the fleet to US navy to become troop transports.  Only possible explanation. This should take less time than WWII

I don't think the navy is in the market right now. I say being shut down is about as bad as it gets.

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16 minutes ago, irzero said:

 

They have a fleet of 25bln USD worth of ships. A staff made up of low wage crew on temporary contracts that basically work for tips. 1.3bln in existing credit and cash and a product that will be in demand once this is all over. A bank flush with newly minted low interest cash from the central bank would be lining up for some long term credit facility to Royal in return for some serious long term profitable loans. 

 

I would not short this stock. You could be wiped out just on a market rally.


What would you suggest they do with the ship inventory? In today’s environment the real value of these ships is probably a small fraction of the number you mentioned. Who would buy them and how much collateral would they fetch with a loan.

Because of this I don’t see many suitors of any kind.

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1 minute ago, grandgeezer said:


What would you suggest they do with the ship inventory? In today’s environment the real value of these ships is probably a small fraction of the number you mentioned. Who would buy them and how much collateral would they fetch with a loan.

Because of this I don’t see many suitors of any kind.

I do not see why anyone is in a panic mode about either cruise line. They have been in far worse situations in the past and came back out on top. I am sure this is a temporary set back. This virus should diminish very soon. China reported only one new case yesterday and one today.

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3 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:


What would you suggest they do with the ship inventory? In today’s environment the real value of these ships is probably a small fraction of the number you mentioned. Who would buy them and how much collateral would they fetch with a loan.

Because of this I don’t see many suitors of any kind.

That $25B is net of $10B in accumulated depreciation so probably close to fmv.  With only $8B in long term debt ships could serve as collateral for additional borrowings

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1 hour ago, RoyalC said:

You might not have up to date info on that 2.5- my account also said 2.5 but that was like three weeks ago!

If that number is correct, it would not be bullish for RCL.  Short sales must be covered at some point and a larger number would indicate a greater upside potential when the shorts will ultimately be covered.

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6 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I do not see why anyone is in a panic mode about either cruise line. They have been in far worse situations in the past and came back out on top. I am sure this is a temporary set back. This virus should diminish very soon. China reported only one new case yesterday and one today.

Seriously what was worse.? The poop cruise?  Affected one ship.  Conocordi? one ship. Achille Lauro? one region that was pretty minor for the cruise industry.  9-11?  Flights were grounded. Ships still sailed.

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5 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

 

The total US deaths is up to 168 the last time I was able to numbers for the us from the John Hopkins site. 

These are the latest numbers for NY and Washington State.  The confirmed cases in Washington State are low do to lack of testing.  Also because of the lack of testing the death rate looks very high.

 

 

I used the John Hopkins Site in the beginning.  However, once cases started to be reported it seemed to lag on them being reported. 
 

I started to use this site linked below for reporting.  For the top reported countries you can click on them see for information on them. At this moment it shows 500 more cases than the Hopkins page.
 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

2 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   


Blizzard, I am sorry for your and your families loss.  Virtual hugs to you during these difficult times. 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

 

How horrible.  We are so sorry.  Grace and peace.  David and Vickey

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2 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

I’m really sorry Blizzard 

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3 hours ago, ed01106 said:

Seriously what was worse.? The poop cruise?  Affected one ship.  Conocordi? one ship. Achille Lauro? one region that was pretty minor for the cruise industry.  9-11?  Flights were grounded. Ships still sailed.

 

Statements like that you replied to, and the one in the 'bull case' indicate someone throwing in clichés just to support their opinion, rather than an informed opinion arising from logical analysis.

 

Not a lot of worth in someone's unsupported opinion.

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5 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

 

I am very sorry to hear this.  Sigh.

 

jc

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On 3/18/2020 at 2:55 PM, LMaxwell said:

 

If they go bankrupt you are wiped out.  

 

No one is buying these companies.  Their books have always been way out of wack, supported by monster revenues.  Absent revenue they are all in big danger in very little time. Talks of bail outs are not only premature; no way to know how long this crisis continues, but the US government really is not likely to bail out cruise industry. 

 

In my opinion announcing further shutdowns will have more negative impact on the stocks driving prices down.  Once CCL and RCL announce dividend cuts that will drive down prices.  Eventually they will not have the credit rating to borrow more money, they will not be able to service their massive debt, and that's the end of things. 

 

Although I have put aside some "fun money" watching these cruise stocks they are not at the bottom and any investment in a cruise line now is simply playing roulette with your money and betting on red or black; failure or survival. It is not something to do with limited funds you can't lose, retirement money, for new investors, etc...

 

When the crisis subsides and sailings have all clear is a time to buy, and buy on the way up.  Getting in at 20 because it was 135 a few months ago is arbitrary and there is no end in sight to the crisis and no historical precedent for guidance.  

 

Cash is king.  Lots of guys getting rich shorting everything still. 

 

Despite your hate for them they treat you like their best buddy.

 

seems weird to me....

 

jc

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"If they go bankrupt you are wiped out." I assume you mean the stock I bought. I personally  will NOT be wiped out. 

It will NOT happen. The stock will go back up. That I have been through before when both took a hit greater than now. 

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34 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

"If they go bankrupt you are wiped out." I assume you mean the stock I bought. I personally  will NOT be wiped out. 

It will NOT happen. The stock will go back up. That I have been through before when both took a hit greater than now. 

Keep in mind the hit is not over and previous hits did not stop every cruise. In fact not a single cruise was ever stopped outside a few! The government is also indicating, unlike the previous administration, that no bailout money should, or is to be used for stock buybacks. They also indicate the government will want a stake in the company. This is a change from yesterday's tone. They talk different every day and make it hard to invest quite frankly. 

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6 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

John,

I am so sorry for your loss.  Hope you and Marilyn are doing well.

Please accept my condolences.

Pat

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9 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

I'm so sorry to hear that. My colencenes to you and your family.

Edited by ReneeFLL
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We are betting on RCL and NCL recovering 90% or more over time. We have 5-8 years, we have time to wait.  None of us have a crystal ball, but that is my instinct and I put our money where my mouth is! We bought 200 shares of RCL (some at $30, some in the 20’s recently) and 350 of NCL (some at $9.42, more at 7ish). For me it’s not only a good and likely profitable financial decision, it’s also a way to support what I love doing -  cruising!

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9 hours ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

That I have been through before when both took a hit greater than now. 

When did this greater hit occur? I don't recall all the ships ever being shut down at the same time.

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During financial crisis there could have been a crisis of liquidity. Banks pulled credit and bonds went to junk and without liquidity companies go bust far quicker. In this situation a company would only survive on its cash in the bank. If that cash was in Lehman or some other bust bank then you are in trouble.

 

If banks are functioning then credit can flow and deals can be done to cover them over this period. Creditors who have funded billions in new ships would not want to see royal go under as those assets would see a huge loss in value.

 

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk

 

The problem is the banks are going to be in an even worse position this time. As the unemployment rate spikes millions will not be able to pay their mortgage. In the financial crisis it wasn’t this bad for the airlines, hotels, restaurateurs, etc. Even with the current monetary policy there is not enough $ to go around to provide liquidity for every industry.

 

Yes the ships are going to be sailing once they are able. But if they declare chapter 11 then the common stock holders are likely wiped out. Bankruptcy doesn’t mean RCL shuts down.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

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