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UBS sizes up the balance sheets of the cruise line operators after factoring in the latest cash-preservation moves by Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH +7.5%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL +12.5%), as well as the capital raise by Carnival (CCL +12.0%).

Analyst Robin Farley: "CCL's capital raise last week gives it the longest runway of liquidity to stay afloat in a zero-revenue scenario, at about 12-13 months with potential for another 2 months based on prolonged layups, and more beyond that (as we detail below.) That puts CCL further ahead of RCL, which we believe has ~10 months of liquidity in a zero-rev scenario, and NCLH which we believe has ~7-8 months of liquidity in such a scenario."

UBS has a 12-month Buy rating on Royal Caribbean and Neutral ratings on Carnival and Norwegian.

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1 hour ago, irzero said:

At best i think you can hope for some kind of dry port where nobody is allowed on or off just supplies and the ship does an almost cruise to nowhere but still technically docks. There needs to be emergency removal of sick corona patients which means another logistical nightmare. 

Not sure who paid for the extra medical staff, but interesting what RCCL did with Apex (Apex was "delivered" from the shipyard to X last week and apparently had a pretty full crew on board):

Quote

According to the regional health agency, 217 cases have now been registered on Celebrity Apex, still berthed at Chantiers de l'Atlantique in Saint-Nazaire.

 

Four people have been taken to the hospital, and two are in intensive care. Some days ago, four doctors and five nurses arrived from the United States and have been on board to test all crew.

 

Edited by Biker19
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1 hour ago, irzero said:

So i read that as a brand new ship with just staff onboard has 217 case already? 

She had about 1400 crew on board ready for her Med season coming out of the shipyard.

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6 hours ago, irzero said:

Whilst countries fear Covid19 ability to shut down entire economies they will never allow ships full of covid patients to dock and mass unload a few thousand potential bio hazards in to their port cities. 

 

At best i think you can hope for some kind of dry port where nobody is allowed on or off just supplies and the ship does an almost cruise to nowhere but still technically docks. There needs to be emergency removal of sick corona patients which means another logistical nightmare. 

 

No way do i think those current planned stops will ever be allowed until a vaccine is widespread. The cruise lines have not got the cash to last that out.

I think I would like to know how RCL would handle, mid sailing, the determination of multiple cases of active corona 19.  Absent some positive, direct plan to get them off ship, I would not sail.  They could have agreements with the various governments at the visited ports of call.  There still would be the issue of self quarantine based on exposure to anyone ID'd with corona 19, but do not want  to be subjected to even the possibility of floating around with no way to get off. Hey, it is suppose to be a vacation and not inclined to be worried at every thing I touch or person I meet.

 

Also, I think that many of the potential ports of call may be worst off with  still active cases each week.  This I believe will be for a long time. How many cases? Not sure, but I hope RCL survives and thrives, but it will not be with me as an investor right now and not sure even as a passenger in 2020 or early 2021.  Would like to get pass a whole calendar season.

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21 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Market has already priced in elimination of dividend.   May sound perverse but stock will likely rise when they announce it.  Shows they are serious about conserving cash.    

 

CCL fits right in with Saudi sovereign wealth fund's other big investments Tesla and Uber.  Currently making no money and burning through cash.

CCL stock dropped from approx. 11 to 8 within 3 days of publicly  announcing elimination of dividend and it had been anticipated for weeks, even stressed by analysis to eliminate it as early as 2 weeks prior to company announcement. For sure there was other news too, so not sure how you can ID specific stock reaction to specific action taken with so much going on each day at these companies.

 

Hope you are right though.

Edited by shipshape sam
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36 minutes ago, shipshape sam said:

CCL stock dropped from approx. 11 to 8 within 3 days of publicly  announcing elimination of dividend and it had been anticipated for weeks, even stressed by analysis to eliminate it as early as 2 weeks prior to company announcement. For sure there was other news too, so not sure how you can ID specific stock reaction to specific action taken with so much going on each day at these companies.

 

Hope you are right though.

Back up to almost $12 now so that news didn't mean much.

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32 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Back up to almost $12 now so that news didn't mean much.

They are only as good as their last news. 

 

For sure they are up with selling over 8% of their stock.  Market sees that someone willing to infuse that amount of money as a good sign.  Not sure of share price of sale, but think it was around $8-9/share and that is cash to them. When we sell/buy it is between us. They also have, projected, the longest run rate(cash run rate) without any revenues of the big 3 - about 12 months.  RCL is about 8 months.

 

I sure hope they are not using/counting on customer deposits in their cash flow calculation right now.  

Edited by shipshape sam
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1 hour ago, shipshape sam said:

They are only as good as their last news. 

 

For sure they are up with selling over 8% of their stock.  Market sees that someone willing to infuse that amount of money as a good sign.  Not sure of share price of sale, but think it was around $8-9/share and that is cash to them. When we sell/buy it is between us. They also have, projected, the longest run rate(cash run rate) without any revenues of the big 3 - about 12 months.  RCL is about 8 months.

 

I sure hope they are not using/counting on customer deposits in their cash flow calculation right now.  

I think the Ponzi game went something like that

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2 hours ago, shipshape sam said:

CCL stock dropped from approx. 11 to 8 within 3 days of publicly  announcing elimination of dividend and it had been anticipated for weeks, even stressed by analysis to eliminate it as early as 2 weeks prior to company announcement. For sure there was other news too, so not sure how you can ID specific stock reaction to specific action taken with so much going on each day at these companies.

 

Hope you are right though.

When companies sell stock through secondary offering the price is usually below current market.  The more stock they are selling and the more desperate they are the larger the discount.  It is also not unusual for Wall St firms to sell stock short at time secondary offering is announced and then buy back cheaper by participating in the offering.  

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Note that Saudi's reported their 8.2% stake was established in late March, so ahead of the CCL debt and equity offerings.  Since shares were purchased in open market and not through new issuance CCL received no new cash.  They did benefit in a non-financial way from the Saudi vote of confidence.

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On 4/4/2020 at 2:52 AM, grandgeezer said:

 

That was 2009, what has that got to do with what's happening in 2020.

Did everyone forget when the stock was $135? That was in 2019, at least that is relevant to what's going on now.

 

Fair enough, but that $5 was when they were fully operating with paying passengers.

 

I suspect it will hit single digits again.

 

At the very least, all that debt will force them to issue more stock, depressing the value.

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 Royal Caribbean Price Target & Analyst Ratings

Showing:
All Analyst Consensus & Price Target orange-tooltip.png
Best Performing Analyst Consensus & Price TargetPremium orange-tooltip.png

Analyst Rating Consensus

Moderate Buy

Based on 15 Analyst Ratings


  • 6 Buy
  • 7 Hold
  • 2 Sell

Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering stock ratings for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months (by analysts ranked 0 to 5 stars).

7ed9b33a08514bc88e740e04fa91b466.png

Analyst Price Target on RCL

$99.83
 (168.72% Upside)

Based on 15 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months. The average price target is $99.83 with a high forecast of $165.00 and a low forecast of $25.00. The average price target represents a 168.72%increase from the last price of $37.15.

Past 12 Months     Next 12 MonthsApr2019JulOctJan2020Apr$22$60.75$99.50$138.25$177Apr2021
 
Average
$99.83
Low
$25.00
High
$165.00
7ed9b33a08514bc88e740e04fa91b466.png

Detailed list of analyst forecasts

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22 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

 Royal Caribbean Price Target & Analyst Ratings

Showing:
All Analyst Consensus & Price Target orange-tooltip.png
Best Performing Analyst Consensus & Price TargetPremium orange-tooltip.png

Analyst Rating Consensus

Moderate Buy

Based on 15 Analyst Ratings


  • 6 Buy
  • 7 Hold
  • 2 Sell

Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering stock ratings for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months (by analysts ranked 0 to 5 stars).

7ed9b33a08514bc88e740e04fa91b466.png

Analyst Price Target on RCL

$99.83
 (168.72% Upside)

Based on 15 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months. The average price target is $99.83 with a high forecast of $165.00 and a low forecast of $25.00. The average price target represents a 168.72%increase from the last price of $37.15.

Past 12 Months     Next 12 MonthsApr2019JulOctJan2020Apr$22$60.75$99.50$138.25$177Apr2021
 
Average
$99.83
Low
$25.00
High
$165.00
7ed9b33a08514bc88e740e04fa91b466.png

Detailed list of analyst forecasts

 

 

They were pretty much the same thing about Goldman Sachs in 2008.  If analysts were always correct they would be billionaires.  CFRA (Standard and Poors) rates them SELL.  

 

Not saying you or they are wrong, but the current uncertainty leaves a lot to be desired.  All these deserted ships will take some time to get into position and staff up.

 

If the stock gets back to the $10's I would take a flyer.

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Interesting article by Market Watch posted today,

 

Shares of cruise operators rallied again Wednesday, with Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, 11.92% leading the way higher in afternoon trading. Royal Caribbean's stock ran up 10.4%, after rocketing 37.6% the over the previous two days; Carnival Corp. shares CCL, 5.93% surged 5.0 after soaring 41.8% over the previous three sessions; and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s stock NCLH, 6.44% hiked up 4.6% after shooting 31.1% higher the previous three sessions. The gains comes as the S&P 500 SPX, 3.38% rallies 3.0%. Instinet analyst Harry Curtis said based on his new cash burn and recovery forecasts for the cruise industry through 2023, he believes all three companies have enough liquidity and borrowing capacity to survive near-zero revenue through the first quarter of 2021. "Many times we've been asked about bankruptcy, and we believe it to be low," Curtis wrote in a note to clients. He expects a "modest" recovery for the industry to begin in the second half of 2020, with the first quarter of 2021 the possible "turning point." Curtis said there may be 70% to 90% upside in the stocks over the next three years.

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People say it's impossible to know if the price is going up or down... but I've got a secret trick I'm going to let you people in on. If I decide to buy some RCL stock, I'll let everyone here know a day ahead of time. Plenty of opportunity to dump your shares. Because I can pretty much guarantee that as soon as I buy in, the price is going down, down, down.

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21 hours ago, taglovestocruise said:

Based on 15 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months

3 months ago I doubt that stock analysts had even heard of COVID-19. Any analysis done earlier than March is useless, and ones more than a couple of weeks ago are next to useless. Without dates for those 15 analysts reports, I would ignore this article. 

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On 4/6/2020 at 11:25 AM, taglovestocruise said:

Carnival, Norwegian cruise line and Royal Caribbean all jumped 18% - 25% todays as the Saudi's bought almost $400 million dollars of Carnival stock.  Good chance they won't lose money. 

 

On 4/6/2020 at 9:07 PM, The_Big_M said:

The fact there are new investors doesn't change the risk of the outcome.

 

Presumably, they did their due diligence before buying 43.5 million shares of CCL.  I would guess they hired the best of the best to evaluate the risks before plowing that much money into the cruise industry.  That is a pretty strong vote of confidence that cruising won't disappear like some on CC have suggested.

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20 hours ago, zekekelso said:

People say it's impossible to know if the price is going up or down... but I've got a secret trick I'm going to let you people in on. If I decide to buy some RCL stock, I'll let everyone here know a day ahead of time. Plenty of opportunity to dump your shares. Because I can pretty much guarantee that as soon as I buy in, the price is going down, down, down.

🤣🤣 That's about our luck as well.

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