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One aspect I think investors may be missing.  Will consumers come back in sufficient numbers to allow for the aggressive growth cruise lines had plan and are 'banking' on.

 

I know and have talked to a number of people, and cruising is not on their radar anymore ( would guess at least till 2021).

 

We had a venture capitalist / investor in our company once tell us of another investment they made.  Long story short, they talked to all kinds of potential customers about the companies products/services and made the investment.  They forgot to ask a price range they would pay for the products/services and the business plan failed to deliver and their investment value dropped like a rock, extending their exit date strategy.

 

I do not think customers are going just jump back into cruising. Not sure there is not going to have discounting to get numbers of customers to fill the ships.

 

I do hope the cruise lines get back to 'normal' as soon as possible.  Did read where bookings are strong for 2021.

Edited by shipshape sam
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17 minutes ago, shipshape sam said:

One aspect I think investors may be missing.  Will consumers come back in sufficient numbers to allow for the aggressive growth cruise lines had plan and are 'banking' on.

 

I know and have talked to a number of people, and cruising is not on their radar anymore ( would guess at least till 2021).

 

We had a venture capitalist / investor in our company once tell us of another investment they made.  Long story short, they talked to all kinds of potential customers about the companies products/services and made the investment.  They forgot to ask a price range they would pay for the products/services and the business plan failed to deliver and their investment value dropped like a rock, extending their exit date strategy.

 

I do not think customers are going just jump back into cruising. Not sure there is not going to have discounting to get numbers of customers to fill the ships.

 

I do hope the cruise lines get back to 'normal' as soon as possible.  Did read where bookings are strong for 2021.

I wonder how much of that is displaced cruisers with FCCs that need to be used.

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One of the reasons that bookings are strong for 2021 is people are using th FCC's that are being used from cancelled cruises.

 

I believe that many of those that are going into the cruise stocks are looking very long term as in 3-5 years.  

We have been cruising for 42 years.  In the last 4 years we have been averaging around 160 nights per year.  We are in our mid 60's so have a greater risk if we contract Covid-19.  We were never overly concerned with Noro but we are concerned with this.    We currently have 95 nights booked later in this year but I am not sure we will take them if not cancelled.  We are not if we will go back until there is a vaccine.    At some point we will go back.

 

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

One of the reasons that bookings are strong for 2021 is people are using th FCC's that are being used from cancelled cruises.

 

I believe that many of those that are going into the cruise stocks are looking very long term as in 3-5 years.  

We have been cruising for 42 years.  In the last 4 years we have been averaging around 160 nights per year.  We are in our mid 60's so have a greater risk if we contract Covid-19.  We were never overly concerned with Noro but we are concerned with this.    We currently have 95 nights booked later in this year but I am not sure we will take them if not cancelled.  We are not if we will go back until there is a vaccine.    At some point we will go back.

 

And you should view them differently. There is a big difference between abdominal cramping with diarrhea and pneumonia.

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On 4/8/2020 at 6:27 AM, irzero said:

 

So i read that as a brand new ship with just staff onboard has 217 case already? 

 

Glad i bailed on this stock but sad to see the damage that might be caused longer term as i do like cruising. That said maybe RCL might appreciate its loyal customers more and provide better experiences rather than just upping prices all the time for providing less

Bailed? When? It doubled in two weeks. Operations halted, no end to operations halted in sight, NOT GETTING BAILOUT MONEY, completely unknown how long it takes to get back to something resembling normal, but hey it fricking DOUBLED in price. Please write the Fed and say thank you for saving this company, completely bailing out any company that even knows what the stock market is, and destroying our economy.

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10 hours ago, mpk said:

 

 

Presumably, they did their due diligence before buying 43.5 million shares of CCL.  I would guess they hired the best of the best to evaluate the risks before plowing that much money into the cruise industry.  That is a pretty strong vote of confidence that cruising won't disappear like some on CC have suggested.

 

So they got the smartest guys in the room? Cool. Glad that's all settled then.

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Exactly. They've taken a shotgun approach, picking up cheap shares - that are related to their main export, oil. Nothing more sophisticated than that.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis-take-big-stakes-european-oil-companies-11586382353

 

Or of course, you can justify it with the "smartest guys in the room" theory... though we now how that ended up.

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9 minutes ago, soloadventurer said:

After the CDC news SELL SELL SELL bank the profits  - Rcl & Col will be haemorrhaging money in refunds   

Maybe a TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  would be a better approach. A lot of us are up 75% to 100% in the last two weeks. I put a $1 trailing stop loss on RCL, NCL and CCL on Thursday. No brainer on online accounts with 0 commission.  Wait a day or so after the pull back and get back in for more profits and do it again.  Usb raised the 12 month target on RCL to $84 and gave it a buy rating earlier this week.  Definitely not for the risk adverseive or anyone with a sensitive guilt complex.

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1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

Maybe a TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  would be a better approach. A lot of us are up 75% to 100% in the last two weeks. I put a $1 trailing stop loss on RCL, NCL and CCL on Thursday. No brainer on online accounts with 0 commission.  Wait a day or so after the pull back and get back in for more profits and do it again.  Usb raised the 12 month target on RCL to $84 and gave it a buy rating earlier this week.  Definitely not for the risk adverseive or anyone with a sensitive guilt complex.

Explain more how a TRAILING STOP LOSS works please? what number on the stop loss did you put? $$$ For you might be good to sell now and get back into buying again when it tanks.

Edited by Jimbo
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1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

Maybe a TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  would be a better approach. A lot of us are up 75% to 100% in the last two weeks. I put a $1 trailing stop loss on RCL, NCL and CCL on Thursday. No brainer on online accounts with 0 commission.  Wait a day or so after the pull back and get back in for more profits and do it again.  Usb raised the 12 month target on RCL to $84 and gave it a buy rating earlier this week.  Definitely not for the risk adverseive or anyone with a sensitive guilt complex.

I’m actually wondering if the market has already reacted to the news.  The stock was trading around $42 most of the day Thursday then took a quick dive to $37 at about 2:00 then back up to $40.  I suspect that information about the CDC release was released in the afternoon

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3 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I’m actually wondering if the market has already reacted to the news.  The stock was trading around $42 most of the day Thursday then took a quick dive to $37 at about 2:00 then back up to $40.  I suspect that information about the CDC release was released in the afternoon

Good Point, saw that too. I'm thinking Monday though it will dive much lower.

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Just now, Jimbo said:

Good Point, saw that too. I'm thinking Monday though it will dive much lower.

If the dive was in relation to the CDC report then I’m not sure it will drop anymore.  A lot has already been factored into the share price and I don’t think that not cruising for the next 2-3 months is anything that surprised anyone...it just made it official. 

 

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1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

Explain more how a TRAILING STOP LOSS works please? what number on the stop loss did you put? $$$ For you might be good to sell now and get back into buying again when it tanks.

I use Schwab which is 0 commission for online trades. Schwab is slightly different than the example. The three cruise line stocks have a $1.00 trail. It is a tight order but I am not greedy. It becomes a market order after triggering and once again greed is factored out.  

With a trailing-stop order, the stop price trails the bid price of the stock as it moves higher. The stop price essentially self-adjusts and remains below the market price by the number of points or the percentage that you specify, as long as the stock is moving higher. Once the stock begins to move lower, the stop price freezes at the highest level it reaches.

In other words, the stop price can move higher indefinitely, but it can never move lower. If the stock falls enough to reach the stop price, the order is triggered and sent to the marketplace. The primary benefit of a trailing-stop order versus a regular stop order is that it doesn't have to be canceled and re-entered as the price of the stock increases. As mentioned above, this order is held on a server until the stop price (trigger) is reached.

Example: Assume you placed a 5% trailing-stop order on a recently purchased stock position. As the stock increases in price, if at any point the bid retraces (falls) by 5%, a market order will automatically be entered for the quantity you specified. For example, if you entered this order when the stock price was $100 per share, if the bid price increases 9% to 109 (assuming it never pulled back 5% on its way up to 109) and then drops 5% to 103.55, the order will be sent. The effective change from the time the trailing-stop was placed until the order was triggered would be 3.55% above where you originally placed the order. Since a trailing-stop order becomes a market order when triggered, it behaves very similar to a standard stop order. 

Edited by taglovestocruise
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1 hour ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I’m actually wondering if the market has already reacted to the news.  The stock was trading around $42 most of the day Thursday then took a quick dive to $37 at about 2:00 then back up to $40.  I suspect that information about the CDC release was released in the afternoon

Any announcement that occurs during the trading day is taken into account before you finish reading the news alert. If the announcement occurs after the market closes, the news is taken into account in after-hours trading, and you will see the price reaction the next day when the market opens.

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2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

What did the CDC say? Somehow I missed it.

No cruising to US ports for 100.  This is probably conservative. I think September realistically. 

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16 minutes ago, ano said:

No cruising to US ports for 100.  This is probably conservative. I think September realistically. 

Thanks, I just found the announcement. Do you know if it was made before or after the market closed?

 

Edit: I just found that too... late Thursday. And yet it still closed over 40 today. I keep shaking my head. I feel a headache coming on.

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40 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Thanks, I just found the announcement. Do you know if it was made before or after the market closed?

 

Edit: I just found that too... late Thursday. And yet it still closed over 40 today. I keep shaking my head. I feel a headache coming on.

But it was on their website the day before when they originally had it at 120 days.  It was then changed.  I believe that the information was out there over the past couple days and the market has already reacted.  Like I said in an earlier post, this just makes it official.  

 

Markets were closed today, you are looking at Thursdays close.  I kept doing that this morning....what’s going on the sticks not moving at all. 

Edited by Ourusualbeach
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10 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

But it was on their website the day before when they originally had it at 120 days.  It was then changed.  I believe that the information was out there over the past couple days and the market has already reacted.  Like I said in an earlier post, this just makes it official.  

 

Markets were closed today, you are looking at Thursdays close.  I kept doing that this morning....what’s going on the sticks not moving at all. 

Thanks, I didn't realize that the market was closed today.

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