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Dividends will be suspended as part of the arrangement that Royal has made with the financing of Anthem and Spectrum.  They have taken advantage of a 12 month debt holiday that will save them 200 million.  

 

On April 8, 2020, we amended the export-credit backed loan facilities incurred to finance Anthem of the Seas and Spectrum of the Seas, respectively, in order to incorporate the benefits of a 12-month debt holiday initiative being offered by Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft (“Hermes”), the official export credit agency of Germany, to the cruise industry (the “Debt Holiday”). The intention of this initiative is to provide interim debt service and financial covenant relief during the current global health crisis to cruise-line borrowers with respect to their Hermes-guaranteed financings.
Under the terms of each amendment, the lenders have made available to us a new tranche of each loan (the “Deferred Tranche”), the proceeds of which will be used to repay any principal amortization payments due on such facilities between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021 (the “Deferral Period”). The Deferred Tranche will be repayable in eight equal semi-annual installments between April 2021 and October 2024. Interest on the Deferred Tranche will accrue at the same floating rate that applies to the existing loan (LIBOR plus 1.30% per annum, in the case of Anthem and LIBOR plus 0.95% per annum, in the case of Spectrum). Interest is payable during the Deferral Period.
The lenders have also agreed that, during the Deferral Period, a breach of the financial covenants will not trigger a mandatory prepayment under the Loan Agreements.
In the event we take certain actions while the Deferred Tranche is outstanding, we will be required to prepay the outstanding balance of the Deferred Tranche. These actions include the payment of dividends, the repurchase of stock, and the issuance of debt or equity other than for liquidity. These restrictions are subject to customary carveouts such as, in the case of new debt, debt incurred to finance new ships.

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4 hours ago, ano said:

No cruising to US ports for 100.  This is probably conservative. I think September realistically. 

Today Burning Man was cancelled. It was scheduled for Aug. 30 to Sept. 7th.  That tells you groups won't be forming for cruises before then. 

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I didn't know what a Tranche was. 

 

Definition of tranche

 

: a division or portion of a pool or wholespecifically : an issue of bonds derived from a pooling of like obligations (such as securitized mortgage debt) that is differentiated from other issues especially by maturity or rate of return
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A number of problems i see on the horizon.

 

1/ if it was 100 days fair enough in my view it could be a longer - JMHO i believe we'll be lucky if our cruise in December goes ahead ?

 

2/ Logistics of getting staff / food / cleaning etc up and running after lockdown ?

 

3/ Repayment of an loans etc ( im hearing CCL is paying  11.5% ) ?

 

4/ Will cruisers return in their numbers as before - if not will RC be forced into big discounts to entice cruisers back ?

 

5/ Will people who have never cruised before believe cruising is far to risky and holiday elsewhere ?

 

To recap i believe the stock is well overpriced given the massive uncertainties at present. 

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15 hours ago, soloadventurer said:

After the CDC news SELL SELL SELL bank the profits  - Rcl & Col will be haemorrhaging money in refunds   

They won't be haemorrhaging money in refunds.

They aren't giving any refunds. Read the boards!!

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53 minutes ago, BP99 said:

They won't be haemorrhaging money in refunds.

They aren't giving any refunds. Read the boards!!

 

Well if you're entitled to a refund ( i decided on a FCC ) and they aren't providing it. Maybe cruise critic cruisers could start a Class Action against them.

 

Which would add further woe to the share price.

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1 hour ago, BP99 said:

They won't be haemorrhaging money in refunds.

They aren't giving any refunds. Read the boards!!

UK 

 

C. cancelling or accepting the cancellation in which case you will receive a refund of all monies you have paid to us within 14 days of such cancellation.

 

Under the Package Travel Regulations 2018, you are entitled to a full cash refund within two weeks of the cancellation becoming apparent. So if you were told on or before 5 March the trip would not be going ahead, then by now you should have had all your money back

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I had sold my RCL shares beck a few years ago. I did buy 100 recently when it went way down. Right now I am way ahead even today. So we all shall see. I do think, even with the 100 more days for no cruising that it will get back to where it was maybe even higher. We have been doing 4-6 a year for several years now. Some years even more. I am thinking that people like us who are avid cruisers will want to make up for lost time. My wife who told me to cut down to 4 a year, now can't wait for the next cruise. So we figure the stock will go way up and I am thinking in less than a year. 🤞

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4 hours ago, soloadventurer said:

 

Yeah not 14% though 

Got stoped out this morning at $35.  That makes three stop loss triggers since mid March. Up $2000 on three in and out trades.  Probably get back in and hold for the long term if it takes a hit tomorrow. Still in CCL and NCL.

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1 minute ago, taglovestocruise said:

Got stoped out this morning at $35.  That makes three stop loss triggers since mid March. Up $2000 on three in and out trades.  Probably get back in and hold for the long term if it takes a hit tomorrow. Still in CCL and NCL.

About the same here.  Back to my initial cash on hand plus I still have the 100 shares that I purchased at just under $20.  I’m back in anytime it drops below $30. 

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After reading the back and forth here I bought in at $25 last week. Wish I would have pulled the trigger at $19 but I'll take it. Here's to hoping RCI pulls through this and I didn't throw money out the window 🥂!

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The current CDC requirements aren’t making cruising likely anytime soon without a vaccine.  I don’t foresee any nations allowing a cruise ship to port there and no nation will be willing to accept the responsibility every time an outbreak occurs which was becoming incredibly commonplace after the media got too busy paying attention to other things.

 

I sold all my NCL, CCL, and RCI today.  Been up 50 percent playing the swings so darts. May buy back in if the drops back to single digits for NCL and ccl and back to low 20s for RCL and play the swings.
 

These stocks are staring down the barrel of bankruptcy in about a year though....   and originally I thought for sure they’d be cruising by then, but the new CDC requirements make that look incredibly unlikely if not near impossible.

Edited by rimmit
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19 minutes ago, rimmit said:

The current CDC requirements aren’t making cruising likely anytime soon without a vaccine.  I don’t foresee any nations allowing a cruise ship to port there and no nation will be willing to accept the responsibility every time an outbreak occurs which was becoming incredibly commonplace after the media got too busy paying attention to other things.

 

I sold all my NCL, CCL, and RCI today.  Been up 50 percent playing the swings so darts. May buy back in if the drops back to single digits for NCL and ccl and back to low 20s for RCL and play the swings.
 

These stocks are staring down the barrel of bankruptcy in about a year though....   and originally I thought for sure they’d be cruising by then, but the new CDC requirements make that look incredibly unlikely if not near impossible.

 

Yeah it has been a good short term trade, but each time it dips I always wonder if it is the last drive to worthless toilet paper value certificates, LOL

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1 hour ago, chipmaster said:

 

Yeah it has been a good short term trade, but each time it dips I always wonder if it is the last drive to worthless toilet paper value certificates, LOL

Are you willing to sell short.  Even with sharks in the water a short trade could be dangerous.  Todays after hour trades are up a dollar. 

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18 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Are you willing to sell short.  Even with sharks in the water a short trade could be dangerous.  Todays after hour trades are up a dollar. 

 

Ah short, puts/calls are all in play, volatility is the friend of day traders, LOL

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I wish I can remember which one of you explained the bond market, and how the market perceives all the cruising stock (junk bond ratings and being lent money at 12%), not just RCL. Here's the best written description that I have found

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337266-bond-markets-are-saying-royal-caribbean-is-still-on-thin-ice

 

"With the highly levered balance sheet and no cruises launching until at least 11 May, the almost relief rally-esque movement in RCL’s stock is unwarranted."

 

I'm not arguing against those analysts who think the stock is only going up, just saying here's a different perspective.

I'm not knowledgeable enough to know which factors are more important, and even more so, what data being published and "analyzed" is correct or not.

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