bonsai3s Posted April 16, 2020 #1051 Share Posted April 16, 2020 How much longer can RCL go without money coming in? Is there a wealthy buyer out there waiting in the wings? Did the fat lady sing? Link to post Share on other sites
Ourusualbeach Posted April 16, 2020 #1052 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, soloadventurer said: All Cruises Cancelled Through June 11th - more refunds more cash 💰 winging its way out of the RC bank accounts Apparently the market liked that announcement, up over $3.00 in after hours trading. Link to post Share on other sites
Ourusualbeach Posted April 16, 2020 #1053 Share Posted April 16, 2020 37 minutes ago, bonsai3s said: How much longer can RCL go without money coming in? Is there a wealthy buyer out there waiting in the wings? Did the fat lady sing? Estimates were 10 months. Link to post Share on other sites
Baron Barracuda Posted April 16, 2020 #1054 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Had been a shareholder for over two decades but was fortunate (lucky) to sell at $125 back in February. Went short for a while but covered around $40. Believed prospects for cruise industry were pretty grim and stocks currently uninvestible. Then an hour ago received a report from STAT, a biotech newsletter I subscribe to. They had gotten hold of preliminary Phase 3 results on Gilead's Resmedivir from a trial taking place in Chicago. Report basically said that vast majority of 125 extremely sick patients receiving the drug had experienced rapid recovery and most returned home within a week. Cited one patient whose fever and breathing difficulties corrected overnight. Results from other trial locations will be released later this month, hopefully they are as positive. Gillead stock is up 13% in after-hours trading and DJIA futures are up 800 points. While cruise lines need testing, the availability of a fast acting theraputic could be their salvation. Bears watching. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
npcl Posted April 16, 2020 #1055 Share Posted April 16, 2020 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said: Apparently the market liked that announcement, up over $3.00 in after hours trading. The market will jump on any hopeful news at this time. Edited April 16, 2020 by npcl Link to post Share on other sites
npcl Posted April 16, 2020 #1056 Share Posted April 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said: Had been a shareholder for over two decades but was fortunate (lucky) to sell at $125 back in February. Went short for a while but covered around $40. Believed prospects for cruise industry were pretty grim and stocks currently uninvestible. Then an hour ago received a report from STAT, a biotech newsletter I subscribe to. They had gotten hold of preliminary Phase 3 results on Gilead's Resmedivir from a trial taking place in Chicago. Report basically said that vast majority of 125 extremely sick patients receiving the drug had experienced rapid recovery and most returned home within a week. Cited one patient whose fever and breathing difficulties corrected overnight. Results from other trial locations will be released later this month, hopefully they are as positive. Gillead stock is up 13% in after-hours trading and DJIA futures are up 800 points. While cruise lines need testing, the availability of a fast acting theraputic could be their salvation. Bears watching. Look at the side effect profile with 25% of patients have very serious side effects including kidney failure. It is certainly good news, but it is a product that will be for the most serious cases. An infusion drug used in a hospital setting. What they got hold of was an internal letter to the staff, not preliminary phase 3 data. They were one of the study sites, but the data really needs to be combined and looked at with the other study sites. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
soloadventurer Posted April 17, 2020 #1057 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Good article here about RC / NCL / CL "way too many red flags and are a speculative play at best for my liking" https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337977-cruise-liners-cruising-for-bruising 1 Link to post Share on other sites
taglovestocruise Posted April 17, 2020 #1058 Share Posted April 17, 2020 CNN bussiness today.. now a buy rating... Stock Price Forecast The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95. Analyst Recommendations The current consensus among 17 polled investment analysts is to buystock in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. This rating has held steady since March, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.Move your mouse over past months for detail Link to post Share on other sites
Ourusualbeach Posted April 17, 2020 #1059 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said: CNN bussiness today.. now a buy rating... Stock Price Forecast The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95. Analyst Recommendations The current consensus among 17 polled investment analysts is to buystock in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. This rating has held steady since March, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.Move your mouse over past months for detail Does it list what those dates are from. Surely someone cannot be crazy enough to think that within a year Royal will be at $165 1 Link to post Share on other sites
taglovestocruise Posted April 17, 2020 #1060 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said: Does it list what those dates are from. Surely someone cannot be crazy enough to think that within a year Royal will be at $165 First line from the top... Who would have believed a $40 price to be possible just two weeks ago. The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95. Link to post Share on other sites
Ourusualbeach Posted April 17, 2020 #1061 Share Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said: First line from the top... Who would have believed a $40 price to be possible just two weeks ago. The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95. I can't open those files. So you are saying all those estimates are after mid March and $20 to $40 is a whole lot more realistic than $20 to $165 which is well above their previous high when times were good Edited April 17, 2020 by Ourusualbeach Link to post Share on other sites
taglovestocruise Posted April 17, 2020 #1062 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Ourusualbeach said: I can't open those files. So you are saying all those estimates are after mid March and $20 to $40 is a whole lot more realistic than $20 to $165 which is well above their previous high when times were good Analyst price projection as of April 1 2020. Link to post Share on other sites
zekekelso Posted April 17, 2020 #1063 Share Posted April 17, 2020 23 hours ago, bonsai3s said: Is there a wealthy buyer out there waiting in the wings? Maybe Amazon can buy up RCL. That would be interesting. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
steveru621 Posted April 17, 2020 #1064 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, zekekelso said: Maybe Amazon can buy up RCL. That would be interesting. That's certainly a possibility. But, Bezos will wait until bankruptcy and pick up the pieces. Similar to his purchase of the Washington Post. Link to post Share on other sites
Baron Barracuda Posted April 17, 2020 #1065 Share Posted April 17, 2020 From today's Miami Herald - Cruise industry has enough cash for 10 cruise-less months. But will passengers come back? https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242033816.html Link to post Share on other sites
20165 Posted April 18, 2020 #1066 Share Posted April 18, 2020 14 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said: From today's Miami Herald - Cruise industry has enough cash for 10 cruise-less months. But will passengers come back? https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242033816.html I also saw a similar video that compared the cruise lines to the airlines and the numbers actually came out in favor of the cruise lines, or at least CCL. They do have enough cash reserves and loans to go at least until the end of 2020, and claim their 2021 bookings are up. Not sure i 100% believe that 2021 bookings are up, although the CCL CEO said that in an another interview this week as well, but regardless, it does look like they may be able to come out of this thing ok if we do get back to cruising by the end of the year. Link to post Share on other sites
deepcman Posted April 19, 2020 #1067 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Good video breaking down who's still booking cruises. Link to post Share on other sites
sfaaa Posted April 19, 2020 #1068 Share Posted April 19, 2020 I love the prediction there will be a lot of deals to entice people to go back on cruise ships. It happened after the 2008 financial meltdown and I can see the same thing happening again. Link to post Share on other sites
Hoopster95 Posted April 19, 2020 #1069 Share Posted April 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, sfaaa said: I love the prediction there will be a lot of deals to entice people to go back on cruise ships. It happened after the 2008 financial meltdown and I can see the same thing happening again. In my humble opinion, 9/11 example doesn't fit today's unique circumstances. 300+ cruise ships all around the world were not targets for death during 9/11. Today every single one of them are. There was no basic life or death decision to sway anyone's decision for getting on a cruise ship at that time. However, will there be deals? Maybe.... maybe not. If ships booked are only half occupied for social distancing, supply and demand for berths will take over increasing pricing. Then there's the costs to bring in more staff, create hospitals on board re CDC requirements, yada yada yada. Roll the dice, could go either way 1 Link to post Share on other sites
npcl Posted April 19, 2020 #1070 Share Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) On 4/17/2020 at 1:01 PM, irzero said: Pointless. Some analysts have not updated since before crash. Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk Also most analysts restrict their analysis to company published data (reduces their liability), so the reports are still using mostly pre-COVID-19 data and while they have included drops for Q2 most show Q3 to return to near pre-COVID-19 revenue levels, which I would suspect most of us do not believe will happen. Will be interesting to see how they are updated when next quarters data is released. Edited April 19, 2020 by npcl Link to post Share on other sites
Blizzard54 Posted April 20, 2020 #1071 Share Posted April 20, 2020 As far as deals on cruises going forward... I do not expect to see any when cruising first starts back up. I expect they will start up at less than compacity to tweak the new normal will be. After a few months they may have some deals after final payment to slowing up the capacity. I expect it will not be until a vaccine is widely available that they will go back to their old pricing matrix that may very will require some deep discounting. Link to post Share on other sites
bobmacliberty Posted April 20, 2020 #1072 Share Posted April 20, 2020 12 hours ago, Hoopster95 said: In my humble opinion, 9/11 example doesn't fit today's unique circumstances. 300+ cruise ships all around the world were not targets for death during 9/11. Today every single one of them are. There was no basic life or death decision to sway anyone's decision for getting on a cruise ship at that time. I get your point Hoopster, but I remember thinking that cruise ships WERE a very easy terrorist target after 9/11. Big, relatively slow moving targets with many people in one place who cannot escape. I think many people avoided cruising after 9/11 based on this thought process. Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo Posted April 28, 2020 #1073 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) Still rising the last 2 days? Why? Over $40 again Pretty much all the cruiselines stock are up today? Edited April 28, 2020 by Jimbo Link to post Share on other sites
Ocean Boy Posted April 28, 2020 #1074 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jimbo said: Still rising the last 2 days? Why? Over $40 again Pretty much all the cruiselines stock are up today? And it still makes little sense to me. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
molly361 Posted April 28, 2020 #1075 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) Never mind Edited April 28, 2020 by molly361 Link to post Share on other sites
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