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Had been a shareholder for over two decades but was fortunate (lucky) to sell at $125 back in February.  Went short for a while but covered around $40.  Believed prospects for cruise industry were pretty grim and stocks currently uninvestible.

 

Then an hour ago received a report from STAT, a biotech newsletter I subscribe to.  They had gotten hold of preliminary Phase 3 results on Gilead's Resmedivir from a trial taking place in Chicago.  Report basically said that vast majority of 125 extremely sick patients receiving the drug had experienced rapid recovery and most returned home within a week.  Cited one patient whose fever and breathing difficulties corrected overnight.  Results from other trial locations will be released later this month, hopefully they are as positive.  Gillead stock is up 13% in after-hours trading and DJIA futures are up 800 points.  While cruise lines need testing, the availability of a fast acting theraputic could be their salvation.  Bears watching.

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34 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Apparently the market liked that announcement, up over $3.00 in after hours trading. 

The market will jump on any hopeful news at this time.

Edited by npcl
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20 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Had been a shareholder for over two decades but was fortunate (lucky) to sell at $125 back in February.  Went short for a while but covered around $40.  Believed prospects for cruise industry were pretty grim and stocks currently uninvestible.

 

Then an hour ago received a report from STAT, a biotech newsletter I subscribe to.  They had gotten hold of preliminary Phase 3 results on Gilead's Resmedivir from a trial taking place in Chicago.  Report basically said that vast majority of 125 extremely sick patients receiving the drug had experienced rapid recovery and most returned home within a week.  Cited one patient whose fever and breathing difficulties corrected overnight.  Results from other trial locations will be released later this month, hopefully they are as positive.  Gillead stock is up 13% in after-hours trading and DJIA futures are up 800 points.  While cruise lines need testing, the availability of a fast acting theraputic could be their salvation.  Bears watching.

Look at the side effect profile with 25% of patients have very serious side effects including kidney failure. It is certainly good news, but it is a product  that will be for the most serious cases. An infusion drug used in a hospital setting. 

 

What they got hold of was an internal letter to the staff, not preliminary phase 3 data. They were one of the study sites, but the data really needs to be combined and looked at with the other study sites.

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CNN bussiness today.. now a buy rating...

Stock Price Forecast

The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95.

file.png?z768f7c0az30efa16cb3c24cd0a5f50e4430f20c6e

Analyst Recommendations

The current consensus among 17 polled investment analysts is to buystock in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. This rating has held steady since March, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.Move your mouse over past
months for detail

file.png?z768f7c0azd1b41a24a2534c7bb80602c6fd7ec1ec
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6 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

CNN bussiness today.. now a buy rating...

Stock Price Forecast

The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95.

file.png?z768f7c0az30efa16cb3c24cd0a5f50e4430f20c6e

Analyst Recommendations

The current consensus among 17 polled investment analysts is to buystock in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. This rating has held steady since March, when it was unchanged from a buy rating.Move your mouse over past
months for detail

file.png?z768f7c0azd1b41a24a2534c7bb80602c6fd7ec1ec

Does it list what those dates are from.  Surely someone cannot be crazy enough to think that within a year Royal will be at $165

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5 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Does it list what those dates are from.  Surely someone cannot be crazy enough to think that within a year Royal will be at $165

First line from the top... Who would have  believed a $40 price to be possible just  two weeks ago. 

The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95.

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4 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

First line from the top... Who would have  believed a $40 price to be possible just  two weeks ago. 

The 13 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd have a median target of 65.00, with a high estimate of 165.00 and a low estimate of 25.00. The median estimate represents a +75.91%increase from the last price of 36.95.

I can't open those files.  So you are saying all those estimates are after mid March and $20 to $40 is a whole lot more realistic than $20 to $165 which is well above their previous high when times were good

Edited by Ourusualbeach
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1 hour ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I can't open those files.  So you are saying all those estimates are after mid March and $20 to $40 is a whole lot more realistic than $20 to $165 which is well above their previous high when times were good

Analyst price projection as of April 1 2020.

image.png.267dd2912e75e6519a7742248bdccab1.pngimage.png.363031b6a55d9de5ae2153ae7285550d.png

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2 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

 

Maybe Amazon can buy up RCL. That would be interesting. 

 

That's certainly a possibility.  But, Bezos will wait until bankruptcy and pick up the pieces.  Similar to his purchase of the Washington Post.

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14 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

From today's Miami Herald - Cruise industry has enough cash for 10 cruise-less months. But will passengers come back?

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242033816.html

I also saw a similar video that compared the cruise lines to the airlines and the numbers actually came out in favor of the cruise lines, or at least CCL.  They do have enough cash reserves and loans to go at least until the end of 2020, and claim their 2021 bookings are up. Not sure i 100% believe that 2021 bookings are up, although the CCL CEO said that in an another interview this week as well, but regardless, it does look like they may be able to come out of this thing ok if we do get back to cruising by the end of the year. 

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17 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

I love the prediction there will be a lot of deals to entice people to go back on cruise ships. It happened after the 2008 financial meltdown and I can see the same thing happening again.

 

In my humble opinion, 9/11 example doesn't fit today's unique circumstances.

300+ cruise ships all around the world were not targets for death during 9/11. Today every single one of them are.

There was no basic life or death decision to sway anyone's decision for getting on a cruise ship at that time.

 

However, will there be deals? Maybe.... maybe not.

If ships booked are only half occupied for social distancing, supply and demand for berths will take over increasing pricing.

Then there's the costs to bring in more staff, create hospitals on board re CDC requirements, yada yada yada.

Roll the dice, could go either way

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On 4/17/2020 at 1:01 PM, irzero said:

Pointless.

Some analysts have not updated since before crash.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Also most analysts restrict their analysis to company published data (reduces their liability), so the reports are still using mostly pre-COVID-19 data and while they have included drops for Q2 most show Q3 to return to near pre-COVID-19 revenue levels, which I would suspect most of us do not believe will happen.

 

Will be interesting to see how they are updated when next quarters data is released.

Edited by npcl
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As far as deals on cruises going forward...

I do not expect to see any when cruising first starts back up.  I expect they will start up at less than compacity to tweak the new normal will be.  After a few months they may have some deals after final payment to slowing up the capacity.  I expect it will not be until a vaccine is widely available  that they will go back to their old pricing matrix that may very will require some deep discounting.  

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12 hours ago, Hoopster95 said:

In my humble opinion, 9/11 example doesn't fit today's unique circumstances.

300+ cruise ships all around the world were not targets for death during 9/11. Today every single one of them are.

There was no basic life or death decision to sway anyone's decision for getting on a cruise ship at that time.

 

I get your point Hoopster, but I remember thinking that cruise ships WERE a very easy terrorist target after 9/11.  Big, relatively slow moving targets with many people in one place who cannot escape.  I think many people avoided cruising after 9/11 based on this thought process.

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