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I think many are hoping to see those numbers again to buy back in, myself included.
I have a buy limit set in the upper $20's. Dont need more RCL stock but at that price, would be worth buying more.

Stock market is a legal form of gambling for us folks here in the 50th state. Although you can do your research on companies and make an educated guess.

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14 hours ago, hubofhockey said:

 

I love the company.  I have been on Royal, Celebrity, and Azamara and all are great brands.  Our next is on Silversea and RCL owns 2/3 of that line.  The product is great, but the industry and coming back from COVID with all of the debt is a huge problem. I don't want to wish you bad luck, but I'm hoping it tanks back into the $30s at a level I'd feel comfortable buying 100 shares back.

 

I completely agree that the risks facing RCL and it's stock are enormous.  This morning after it popped I put in a stop limit sell order at $57 so at least now I'll come out a little ahead if it tanks again.  If it gets down to the $30's and isn't teetering on bankruptcy I'll be right there with you ready to buy back in.

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Looks like today it is settling in at 59-60, but that still doesn't sit right with me.  It will probably go up again when/if a vaccine comes out. If it goes into the 30s, I'll buy.  If not, I'll remain a customer of all of their brands (although a bit upset at Azamara for their usual FCC and pricing games and inflexibility).

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18 minutes ago, Dennis#1 said:

Recently purchased 100 shares of RCL.  Can you get both the C&A Balcony discount and the  Shareholder OBC for the same cruise?

 

6 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Yes, they are now combinable. 

Thanks for your quick response.

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On 6/12/2020 at 1:42 AM, hubofhockey said:

 

I love the company.  I have been on Royal, Celebrity, and Azamara and all are great brands.  Our next is on Silversea and RCL owns 2/3 of that line.  The product is great, but the industry and coming back from COVID with all of the debt is a huge problem. I don't want to wish you bad luck, but I'm hoping it tanks back into the $30s at a level I'd feel comfortable buying 100 shares back.

 

I don't think we will see the stock go back below 30 or even down to levels in March unless a big time 2nd wave will hit us to an extent that the current halt to cruising will need to be extended or shortly after restarting cruising will be discontinued again without persectives when it can resume again. Otherwise for the time being we will see some further fluctuations in the share, great for day traders but I doubt under normal cirucmstances that we will see it drop below the upper 30's.

 

Nevertheless the markets are unpredictable and currently do anyway not reflect the real picture of the economy.

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From JP Morgan today. 

Royal Caribbean (RCL)

We’ll start with Royal Caribbean, whose management Montour describes as “best in class.” The upshot is, that RCL shares are still available at a discount – and the company has several reasons for optimism going forward.

As Montour points out, RCL has a reputation for excellent physical infrastructure and operations – the company’s cruise ships and crews are generally considered industry leaders. With China opening up and loosening restrictions, RCL’s ticket prices have been holding up somewhat better than at peer companies. . Last month, RCL extended its suspension of sailings to the end of July, and the Q2 earnings forecast predicts a net loss of $4.43 per share – nearly triple the net loss reported in Q1. But these are likely balanced by the company’s strong liquidity position – it recently renegotiated more than $2.2 billion in debt – and its prospects for Q3 resumption of business in China.

Montour touches on the points in his comments on the stock: “Its relative liquidity position is no longer a concern, while its relative share outperformance and valuation is worth the step up in quality, in our view.”

Overall, Montour sees RCL as a stock worth the risks. He rates it a Buy, expecting the shares to outperform peers in the near future. His $72 price target implies an upside potential of 18% for the coming 12 months. (To watch Montour’s track record, click here)

The Wall Street view of RCL is still cautious. The stock’s recent rebound, despite underperforming the broader markets, has still pushed the share price well above the average price target – but even so, 9 out of 15 analysts rate the stock a Buy. With 4 Holds and 2 Sells, this makes the analyst consensus view a Moderate Buy. RCL shares are selling for $62.66; if it continues to appreciate, expect the analysts to adjust their targets upward

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On 6/14/2020 at 8:19 AM, LXA350 said:

 

I don't think we will see the stock go back below 30 or even down to levels in March unless a big time 2nd wave will hit us to an extent that the current halt to cruising will need to be extended or shortly after restarting cruising will be discontinued again without persectives when it can resume again. Otherwise for the time being we will see some further fluctuations in the share, great for day traders but I doubt under normal cirucmstances that we will see it drop below the upper 30's.

 

Nevertheless the markets are unpredictable and currently do anyway not reflect the real picture of the economy.

 

Nobody knows how far the cruise stocks will fall, but you need a strong stomach to hold it at the current price of 57.  If they announce that all cruises are cancelled through 2020, it will head down fast.

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22 minutes ago, hubofhockey said:

 

Nobody knows how far the cruise stocks will fall, but you need a strong stomach to hold it at the current price of 57.  If they announce that all cruises are cancelled through 2020, it will head down fast.

Agree.  Surprised that RCL stock closed today at $62.50.

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RCL is a sell at current levels because:

- suspended all dividend payments until fresh billions of debt at over 10% are repaid

- Pullmantur Joint Venture is essentially going concern with ships going into cold storage and listed for sale

- social distancing will be the new norm until the time when most travelers are vaccinated to nullify effects of future rare onboard Covid instances. This drastically decreases potential revenue per ship.

- consumers will be out of funds by November the earliest when it will become reasonable again for RCL to advertise for new business

- RCL will have significant problems hiring back qualified and experienced personal. The immediate effect of this is going to be reflected in lower quality and level of service that cruisers will experience onboard. Brand quality will suffer, and will take a number of seasons to recover. This in effect will lead to lower new sales growth compared to pre-Covid times.

- RCL is absolutely in no condition to go on a lucrative acquisition spree

- company will dilute shares and will likely postpone reinstatement of dividends until 2024 or so

- RCL is more volatile than market average. When the party atmosphere at RobinHood blows up, RCL will pull back much more than the indexes

- current price has 100% assumption that generally-accepted Covid vaccination will come in full effect before company runs out of funds. The chances of vaccine being available are well over 50% but not 100%, or 90%. Current price doesn't reflect this.
- these are the times of full-blown travel industry depression but the stock is trading like the current situation is just a single blip on a radar
- the following future expenses have not been priced in all:

  -- renegotiation with dozens of separate port authorities to comply with future crazy health requirements that each individual port may come up with
  -- loss of a large part of the richest and most lucrative market segment who won't be able to sail again because they won't be able to obtain a satisfactory health insurance (senior people with funds to enjoy)
  -- no interest from young people to sail on Royal because competitors are more hip

  -- myriad of future class-action lawsuits related to major screw-ups related to FCCs, and the fact that RCL continues to sell cruises that it knows most likely will not happen because they will have to suspend operations of smaller and older ships

  -- reduced fleet count because older/smaller ships will be too unprofitable to operate when RCL is going to be showing net losses quarter after quarter for the next five years

I remain very bearish on the current valuation levels of RCL. To me this a $27 stock, and I'm looking to buy it around $22.

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Lengthy articles in WSJ and Barrons over the weekend on how Robinhood.com has become a refuge for sports gambling enthusiasts craving action with major sports shut down.  With an average age of 31 they  crowd into a beaten-down stocks buying and selling solely on the basis of momentum (whats going up will keep going up), forget fundamentals.  The produce enough trading volume to cause their stocks to swing wildly from day to day.  The 20 most popular stocks on the site include a number of troubled companies such as Hertz, Chesapeake Energy, GE, Ford and GoPro plus a few airlines and of course all 3 major cruise lines.   Reminds me of the dotcom days when hot stocks were valued on their click-throughs.

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1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

From JP Morgan today. 

Royal Caribbean (RCL)

To watch Montour’s track record, click here)

 

ok, I clicked and see TipRanks (whoever they are) has Montour ranked #1792 of the 6674 analysts they track and the success rate of his recommendations is 55%.  Not terrible, but certainly not top of class.  Note that his review makes no mention of when he expects sailing to resume.  Kind of an important data point when attempting to set a target price for the stock

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3 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

ok, I clicked and see TipRanks (whoever they are) has Montour ranked #1792 of the 6674 analysts they track and the success rate of his recommendations is 55%.  Not terrible, but certainly not top of class.  Note that his review makes no mention of when he expects sailing to resume.  Kind of an important data point when attempting to set a target price for the stock

 

That rating means he does marginally better than the market. That means if you follow him, over time, you should have a reasonable return across all investments.

 

However, that 55% rating also means on any single investment, the chance of him being right is barely more than tossing a coin. Therefore, not a lot of merit to attach great weight/insight to his assessment of a specific company.

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On 6/16/2020 at 6:37 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

Lengthy articles in WSJ and Barrons over the weekend on how Robinhood.com has become a refuge for sports gambling enthusiasts craving action with major sports shut down.  With an average age of 31 they  crowd into a beaten-down stocks buying and selling solely on the basis of momentum (whats going up will keep going up), forget fundamentals.  The produce enough trading volume to cause their stocks to swing wildly from day to day.  The 20 most popular stocks on the site include a number of troubled companies such as Hertz, Chesapeake Energy, GE, Ford and GoPro plus a few airlines and of course all 3 major cruise lines.   Reminds me of the dotcom days when hot stocks were valued on their click-throughs.

 

I have to admit that Robinhood has replaced FanDuel for me, but I just use it for entertainment purposes and the fun of buying and selling and trying to outguess the market. I have $300 in the "game", but my retirement is all in mutual funds managed by professionals with an appropriate stock/bond mix.   My RCL investment was in an IRA and I dumped it at 72.50 over a couple of weeks ago.  I do think it will get very low again and in the $40s next week.  

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On 6/16/2020 at 6:30 PM, PatMunits said:

RCL is a sell at current levels because:

- Pullmantur Joint Venture is essentially going concern with ships going into cold storage and listed for sale


I remain very bearish on the current valuation levels of RCL. To me this a $27 stock, and I'm looking to buy it around $22.

 

Pullmantur is bankrupt. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/royal-caribbeans-spanish-joint-venture-declares-bankruptcy-2020-06-22

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10 minutes ago, mpk said:

 

Bankrupt with intention to reorganize.  Not bankrupt as in immediately out-of-business.


Crews were busy stripping all valuables from the ships over the weekend. This was done in a secretive manner. The three Pullmantur ships will not cruise again under the same ownership (and likely never because they are inefficient boats).

The sum of a full immediate write off for RCL is more beneficial than a minute chance of potentially being able to operate ancient boats at mediocre margins sometime again in the future.

RCL likely sees it this way:
- realize immediate losses today
- bank inflated losses amounts to be used in the future to offset future profits in better years
- lessen immediate burden of trying to figure out how to deal with an obvious bad business
- perfect timing because Wall Street will ignore this JV loss write off set against all the other issues RCL deals with
- this being a minority stake for RCL means that someone else will have to deal with all the reorganization headaches
- loss of market demand means that RCL will not be actually losing any lucrative market share by exiting this low-margin cruising niche 

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1 hour ago, PatMunits said:


Crews were busy stripping all valuables from the ships over the weekend. This was done in a secretive manner. The three Pullmantur ships will not cruise again under the same ownership (and likely never because they are inefficient boats).

The sum of a full immediate write off for RCL is more beneficial than a minute chance of potentially being able to operate ancient boats at mediocre margins sometime again in the future.

RCL likely sees it this way:
- realize immediate losses today
- bank inflated losses amounts to be used in the future to offset future profits in better years
- lessen immediate burden of trying to figure out how to deal with an obvious bad business
- perfect timing because Wall Street will ignore this JV loss write off set against all the other issues RCL deals with
- this being a minority stake for RCL means that someone else will have to deal with all the reorganization headaches
- loss of market demand means that RCL will not be actually losing any lucrative market share by exiting this low-margin cruising niche 

Check your 8k, RCL wrote off their Pullmantur investment back in 1st qtr.

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8 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I’m surprised it hasn’t tanked more than it has today. 

 

The stock is pretty volatile and maybe investors are hanging in there in the hope that the slightest sign of good news will bring this thing back up.  They'd be better off selling now and buying it back when it dips into the $30s.

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