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I got CCL at 8, NCLH at 7 and RCCL at 20 back when the one big crash happened. I keep waiting for that money to vanish, but I was treating it as gambling cash anyway. Surprised the sale of those HAL ships didn't touch CCL much. 

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RCL, along with all the cruise stocks, is a bet on a successful vaccine.  All the cruise lines have been hit the hardest and will probably appreciate the most when they announce a vaccine.

Edited by travelhound
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9 minutes ago, travelhound said:

RCL, along with all the cruise stocks, is a bet on a successful vaccine.  All the cruise lines have been hit the hardest and will probably appreciate the most when they announce a vaccine.

 

I wish that was accurate. They seem to bob up and down for no reason

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1 hour ago, travelhound said:

RCL, along with all the cruise stocks, is a bet on a successful vaccine.  All the cruise lines have been hit the hardest and will probably appreciate the most when they announce a vaccine.

Even after successful vaccine is discovered it will take many months to mass-produce and distribute.  Until then cruise lines continue to hemorrhage cash.  Unlike governments their borrowing power isn't unlimited.  At some point banks will say "enough".

 

 

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1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Even after successful vaccine is discovered it will take many months to mass-produce and distribute.  Until then cruise lines continue to hemorrhage cash.  Unlike governments their borrowing power isn't unlimited.  At some point banks will say "enough".

 

 

 

I was under the impression that the most promising and well funded vaccines were already being produced and awaiting approvals

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6 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I was under the impression that the most promising and well funded vaccines were already being produced and awaiting approvals

That's true - the 2 most promising vaccines being trialled here in the UK are already in production to be ready as soon as trials are (hopefully) successfully  completed.

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35 minutes ago, Trixie21 said:

That's true - the 2 most promising vaccines being trialled here in the UK are already in production to be ready as soon as trials are (hopefully) successfully  completed.

That is my understanding as well.

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12 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Even after successful vaccine is discovered it will take many months to mass-produce and distribute.  Until then cruise lines continue to hemorrhage cash.  Unlike governments their borrowing power isn't unlimited.  At some point banks will say "enough".

 

 

It will take some time for RCL to fully recover after a vaccine is announced, but the stock market is forward looking and will anticipate that recovery.  

Edited by travelhound
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2 hours ago, travelhound said:

It will take some time for RCL to fully recover after a vaccine is announced, but the stock market is forward looking and will anticipate that recovery.  

 

2 hours ago, bobmacliberty said:

If you're day trading cruise stocks, I would imagine that just the news of successful vaccine trials will send cruise company stocks up significantly.

 

Maybe yes — maybe no.  RCL stock closed Friday at $53.14.  It may go much lower if there is no cruising until 2021.  Just my opinion.

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5 minutes ago, Dennis#1 said:

 

 

 

Maybe yes — maybe no.  RCL stock closed Friday at $53.14.  It may go much lower if there is no cruising until 2021.  Just my opinion.

 

Agreed, but the day that someone announces that there is a vaccine that's proven safe, successful, and ready to deploy, all travel related stock will likely spike up (and may just as quickly drop back down).  As with any day trading, timing is everything. 

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19 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Legalized Gambling😉

 

Crown or Anchor instead of red or black 😉

 

6 hours ago, Dinglebert said:

That is my understanding as well.

 

We need to see, evenif vaccinations will come out, it will likely only help for a certain period, a couple of months or ideally a couple of years. Only once the effectiveness is really known, we will see how a first hype will turn into a permanent upside or continue with this roller coaster behaviour for some time at least.

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8 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

Agreed, but the day that someone announces that there is a vaccine that's proven safe, successful, and ready to deploy, all travel related stock will likely spike up (and may just as quickly drop back down).  As with any day trading, timing is everything. 

Agree.  Your post reminded me of the following cartoon.

762D48BE-26EC-413F-AED5-70884C208EEF.jpeg.c726bd013f356d31257fc9404143ad87.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

Agreed, but the day that someone announces that there is a vaccine that's proven safe, successful, and ready to deploy, all travel related stock will likely spike up (and may just as quickly drop back down).  As with any day trading, timing is everything. 

What does proven mean, how many thousands of showing efficacy and what is that metric, how long and how many need to not have documented side effects for months years, or after how many booster shots?

 

But I agree the press and world is in a feeding frenzy for good new to drive the market,  the world is in a recession and what did / does the market do.

 

But there is an explanation, mostly old and weak and poor are dying, so won't effect the economy much, yeah right.

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5 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

.................But there is an explanation, mostly old and weak and poor are dying, so won't effect the economy much, yeah right.


Gruesome thought.  Hope you are wrong.

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2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

But I agree the press and world is in a feeding frenzy for good new to drive the market,  the world is in a recession and what did / does the market do.

 

Remember that much of the hype is being driven by publicly traded companies.  Look at NVAX.  They put out press releases at an amazing rate.  When they do, the stock surges.  Who benefits?  The corporate execs who have stock options, usually given at no cost.  Beware the corporate hype!

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To me, there are two pieces to the puzzle. If, and how fast we can get past Covid-19? And how will the industry change once we do? 
 

A lot of people think we just go back to the way things were in 2019. I’m not so sure. I don’t think the governments are going to stop asking pesky questions about what the lines are going to do if an outbreak occurs on a ship. What changes in cleaning, staffing etc will be needed. I think at least some ports are going to rethink their attitude toward cruise tourism. And finally I think it’s possible - I honestly have no idea - that fewer people are going to want to cruise. 

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11 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Remember that much of the hype is being driven by publicly traded companies.  Look at NVAX.  They put out press releases at an amazing rate.  When they do, the stock surges.  Who benefits?  The corporate execs who have stock options, usually given at no cost.  Beware the corporate hype!

I don't envy corporate executives who have stock options as part of their compensation package any more than Apple or Walmart employees who do and retire as millionaires.

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21 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Remember that much of the hype is being driven by publicly traded companies.  Look at NVAX.  They put out press releases at an amazing rate.  When they do, the stock surges.  Who benefits?  The corporate execs who have stock options, usually given at no cost.  Beware the corporate hype!

 

During the pandemic the rich all did okay, most were able to work from home, continue their income stream and the stock market was pretty good for those that were paying attention and played it right.

 

Most of the out of work are hourly and also likely had few assets for stock, and lived paycheck to paycheck.   Those picketing on both extremes for the most part are / were the hardest hit and likely don't get much from stock.

 

Funny how those in power manipulate the uninformed and get richer.

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8 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

During the pandemic the rich all did okay, most were able to work from home, continue their income stream and the stock market was pretty good for those that were paying attention and played it right.

 

Most of the out of work are hourly and also likely had few assets for stock, and lived paycheck to paycheck.   Those picketing on both extremes for the most part are / were the hardest hit and likely don't get much from stock.

 

Funny how those in power manipulate the uninformed and get richer.

Not the rich only. Many did great. Lawn and yard maintenance did just fine, auto mechanics, tire businesses, painters, home builders, house sales are up not down. Insurance companies and agents, those that had small business from home, internet sales, ebay. Those that always worked from home. Pressure washers, government employees. Plus many, many more. Mostly retail got hit hard because of closing down. Some businesses did even better than normal. One restaurant reported. They have always been take out only and the business pick up over 100%. 

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16 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I was under the impression that the most promising and well funded vaccines were already being produced and awaiting approvals

You are correct, however US vaccine production capacity is limited and will take time to scale up.  Most of the billions of doses promised by J&J, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, etc.  are global, not just for US, and not expected to be available until 2021.

 

While stock will no doubt pop on word of "successful" vaccine, that news alone will likely not alter CDC's no-sail order.  If successful vaccine emerges this fall I still don't expect sailing to resume until 1q '21 and hopefully ramp up to something approaching a normal schedule by next summer.  Until then cruise lines will continue to burn through cash.  The upcoming 2q earnings report should provide interesting reading.   

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1 hour ago, yogimax said:

Remember that much of the hype is being driven by publicly traded companies.  Look at NVAX.  They put out press releases at an amazing rate.  When they do, the stock surges.  Who benefits?  The corporate execs who have stock options, usually given at no cost.  Beware the corporate hype!

Look at Moderna.  Supposedly the front-runner in getting a vaccine approved.  Should be on the road to riches.  Then why have senior executives been constantly selling stock in recent months?

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