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12 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Good Lord, there has to be Cliff Notes somewhere.

What I think it says.  

Still burning through lots of cash every month. 
Still have lots of cash on hand.
Ship builds still in process with delayed delivery dates. 

Lots of demand for cruising.

No definitive date for return to cruising in the USA just yet. 

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36 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Good Lord, there has to be Cliff Notes somewhere.

For that just read the news that came out a couple of days ago - for little things, like the estimated delay for Icon, or the %interest RCCL pays, or other minute detail you may find interesting, you'll have to wade through the report.

 

Biker, who was interested to see that RCCL is being PC, by listing the demographics of its staff for the first time.

Edited by Biker19
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22 minutes ago, atgood said:

What I think it says.  

Still burning through lots of cash every month. 
Still have lots of cash on hand.
Ship builds still in process with delayed delivery dates. 

Lots of demand for cruising.

No definitive date for return to cruising in the USA just yet. 

Thank you. I wonder what sectors the demand for cruises is from? Is it coming from FCCs from cancelled cruises, seasoned cruisers, new cruisers? I would think that would make a difference.

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1 minute ago, Ocean Boy said:

 I wonder what sectors the demand for cruises is from? Is it coming from FCCs from cancelled cruises, seasoned cruisers, new cruisers? I would think that would make a difference.

That won't be listed.

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5 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Thank you. I wonder what sectors the demand for cruises is from? Is it coming from FCCs from cancelled cruises, seasoned cruisers, new cruisers? I would think that would make a difference.

Good questions.  I thought I saw Fain talked about the high demand was surprisingly from the 65+ crowd.  I don’t recall where I saw the video. 
 

Edited by atgood
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As long as Bookings continue and stock is purchased wildly, they will have cash on hand.

In the meantime.... it is a non-viable business model, great speculation being created on future cruise demand with no guarantees to fuel the demand to buy stock .

Underlying Message "SELL NOW" before it's to late.

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2 hours ago, yknot13 said:

As long as Bookings continue and stock is purchased wildly, they will have cash on hand.

In the meantime.... it is a non-viable business model, great speculation being created on future cruise demand with no guarantees to fuel the demand to buy stock .

Underlying Message "SELL NOW" before it's to late.

Please explain why you think Royal has a non-viable business model?

 

Would I be correct to think you have shorted Royal stock since they have a non-viable business model?

 

I'm curious, what companies do you think have guarantees of future demand?

 

Disclosure:  We are holding a small number of shares of Royal and are happy to consider doing so.

 

Tom

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Noticed the "Risks" section (real and potential issues that could negatively affect the company) grew from 9 pages in 2019 to 14 this year.  Most additions surround uncertainty of re-start and ability to manage higher debt load and related interest expense.  

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2 hours ago, yknot13 said:

As long as Bookings continue and stock is purchased wildly, they will have cash on hand.

In the meantime.... it is a non-viable business model, great speculation being created on future cruise demand with no guarantees to fuel the demand to buy stock .

Underlying Message "SELL NOW" before it's to late.

Trading in the company's stock has no impact on their cash on hand.  

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6 hours ago, notmyrealnameoremail said:

Please explain why you think Royal has a non-viable business model?

 

Would I be correct to think you have shorted Royal stock since they have a non-viable business model?

 

I'm curious, what companies do you think have guarantees of future demand?

 

Disclosure:  We are holding a small number of shares of Royal and are happy to consider doing so.

 

Tom

At this point in time the business model is not sustainable(non-viable), this will likely change to a positive position over time.

Until such time, speculation drives the price.

Many rode the past ride to the top. (09-17)

Current concern-return start up to service must be 90-100% effective, otherwise industry downturn on the whole will ensue. Perhaps the entire industry makes overwhelming changes.

I trust those at the top fully understand this, perhaps they do not.

 

Finally my investing strategies are just that...my own and not shared.

Just offering my thoughts

 

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1 hour ago, yknot13 said:

At this point in time the business model is not sustainable(non-viable), this will likely change to a positive position over time.

 

This sentence seems to be self contradictory.  If the model is non-viable, then by definition it is not likely to to change to a positive position.

 

1 hour ago, yknot13 said:

Current concern-return start up to service must be 90-100% effective, otherwise industry downturn on the whole will ensue.

 

I'm fairly certain return to service will not be 90-100% effective and I doubt Royal's management thinks that it will be either.  They will have a myriad of contingency plans ready to roll out if/when the time comes.  After all, “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.”  Moltke the Elder

 

This is a link to a short article talking about this:

http://connect2amc.com/118-strategic-planning-moltke-the-elder-dwight-eisenhower-winston-churchill-and-just-a-little-mike-tyson#:~:text=The German field marshal%2C known,the enemy” is the popular

 

Just my thoughts.  YMMV

 

Tom

 

 

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6 hours ago, notmyrealnameoremail said:

 

This sentence seems to be self contradictory.  If the model is non-viable, then by definition it is not likely to to change to a positive position.

 

 

 

 

Not really. In the current climate the business model is non-viable. If circumstances change as expected then it may be viable again. Hence it's purely speculative.

 

However, just because it's thought positive now is not a guarantee for the future. Remember back in February last year when it was considered viable to continue as it was. What a furphy that was! Then in March when it just required slight changes. Again, wrong. Then in April when the outage would just be a few months. Again, wrong! And so on.

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I appreciate those sharing their thoughts on this topic. Dialogue and understanding make for sound investment strategies. Speculation and hope, are not sound metrics for success.

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1 hour ago, yknot13 said:

I appreciate those sharing their thoughts on this topic. Dialogue and understanding make for sound investment strategies. Speculation and hope, are not sound metrics for success.

I doubt if many are buying at these prices, just holding thru this and hoping profits come sooner rather than later. I too think the price of the stock is in bubble territory and sustained by speculation and hope. Certainly it's not the current earnings or pe. 

 

It's been my experience that once a company operating at a loss finally turns a profit it will come back to earth. Rather impossible to even guess when it will again be profitable. Imo I wouldnt be buying here for investment only for trading. 

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8 minutes ago, CTCruiser76 said:

Someone is buying - which is why the price is going up.........I can tell you, its not me. 

Could be day traders. They play the up and down and out by friday. I agree with you.

 

If I was trading oil stocks been a safer play as oil rises, GE been inching up, CAT and DE on fire with infrastructure talks. Lots of other safer stocks inching up to play. Unless you are shorting. Thrursday would have been a good day to go short rcl? Friday everyone had their shorts in a wad over the 10 year treasury. Tomorrow's direction will be interesting. I love to watch. I wouldnt touch rcl as a hold right now, overbought. It needs some actual restart news, not vaccine hype.

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Cruise lines are among the most actively traded issues by the hot money crowd on Robinhood.  Positive vaccine news is causing a lot of money to rotate out of the "Stay At Home" stocks (Zoom, Peleton) and into the "Re-opening" ones (airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise lines).  These baskets of stocks tend to move together so RCG may just be rising along with the group.

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J&J approval may have helped a little.

They only thing down in my portfolio today is Royal.

They announced a 16-million share stock offering @ $91 stock at 92 off a some.

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2 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Shareholder dilution!

It's only dillutive for anyone who bought above $90.

 

RCG did a good job filling this offering at price very close to prior day close.  Shows high investor demand.  Remember at market bottom last April CCL took huge haircut on new issue, pricing it at $8 at time when stock was trading at $12 

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18 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

It's only dillutive for anyone who bought above $90.

I don't understand your point.  The percentage of my ownership is diluted when more shares are issued.  What does the price I paid have to do with it?

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