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RCL Stock


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48 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

Waiting for $25 again. 

 

Well, that's interesting.

 

Back in 2020 when RCL touched $23.81 there was 236,547,842 shares outstanding and $12,163,846,000 in Shareholder's Equity (a 'book value' per share of $51.42).  Yet, the shares traded at 46% of book value.

 

Now, as of the recent quarter, RCL is $39.49, we have 282,973,716 shares outstanding and $3,988,928,000 in Shareholder's Equity (a 'book value' per share of $14.10).  Yet, the shares are trading at 280% times book value.

 

Make any sense?

 

The cruise industry, as currently composed, will look a lot different going forward.

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8 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Well, that's interesting.

 

Back in 2020 when RCL touched $23.81 there was 236,547,842 shares outstanding and $12,163,846,000 in Shareholder's Equity (a 'book value' per share of $51.42).  Yet, the shares traded at 46% of book value.

 

Now, as of the recent quarter, RCL is $39.49, we have 282,973,716 shares outstanding and $3,988,928,000 in Shareholder's Equity (a 'book value' per share of $14.10).  Yet, the shares are trading at 280% times book value.

 

Make any sense?

 

The cruise industry, as currently composed, will look a lot different going forward.

What do you think about NCLH, buy now or wait for it to go even lower?

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3 hours ago, bruzin_for_a_cruizin said:

I'm long on 200 shares at an avg. cost of $79. I'm tempted to transfer some more cash to my trading account to buy up more and DCA down, but I just know if I do that, the stock will drop even lower!

Then could you please hurry up and do it, I'm tired of waiting for the drop.😁

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17 minutes ago, Tlbecker1 said:

I am excited to buy more soon, but I don’t want it to drop even further.

I wouldn't invest in RCL.  Glad I didn't buy the 100 shares just to get the $100OBC for my 3 remaining cruises this year.   

 

I'll probably go long in 1 account and short in another just to get the $100OBC.

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14 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

No increase in the Med because of Wonder. She was a replacement for Allure.

 

And Allure is well booked in the Caribbean 

 

In 2020, the planned (which later abandoned due to Covid, but that plan was highest capacity in RCL's med deployment and can be used as figure for comparison) Med capacity (numbers are from official figure by RCL) was:

Allure (6780)

Jewel (2702)

Explore (4290)

Vision (2514)

TOTAL  16,286

 

in  July 2021, the Med cruises are done by:

Wonder (6988)

Brilliance (2543)

Odyssey (5510)

Vision (2514)

and Rhapsody (2416)

TOTAL 19,971.

In August when Rhapsody reposition to Haifa/Limassol, the total capacity for west med is still higher at 17,555.

 

No matter how you argue or dress the problem, med capacity had been increased.  

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17 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

We get a $1000 discount for 100 shares on the World Cruise. Cash, not OBC.


Interesting. Any word on whether it is OBC or credit for individual legs?

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4 hours ago, ChC said:

 

In 2020, the planned (which later abandoned due to Covid, but that plan was highest capacity in RCL's med deployment and can be used as figure for comparison) Med capacity (numbers are from official figure by RCL) was:

Allure (6780)

Jewel (2702)

Explore (4290)

Vision (2514)

TOTAL  16,286

 

in  July 2021, the Med cruises are done by:

Wonder (6988)

Brilliance (2543)

Odyssey (5510)

Vision (2514)

and Rhapsody (2416)

TOTAL 19,971.

In August when Rhapsody reposition to Haifa/Limassol, the total capacity for west med is still higher at 17,555.

 

No matter how you argue or dress the problem, med capacity had been increased.  

 

Ok, but you blamed it on Wonder specifically. That is all I addressed

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12 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Ok, but you blamed it on Wonder specifically. That is all I addressed

 

Sure, Wonder brings in 208 more berth than Allure. That is still an increase.

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6 hours ago, ChC said:

 

In 2020, the planned (which later abandoned due to Covid, but that plan was highest capacity in RCL's med deployment and can be used as figure for comparison) Med capacity (numbers are from official figure by RCL) was:

Allure (6780)

Jewel (2702)

Explore (4290)

Vision (2514)

TOTAL  16,286

 

in  July 2021, the Med cruises are done by:

Wonder (6988)

Brilliance (2543)

Odyssey (5510)

Vision (2514)

and Rhapsody (2416)

TOTAL 19,971.

In August when Rhapsody reposition to Haifa/Limassol, the total capacity for west med is still higher at 17,555.

 

No matter how you argue or dress the problem, med capacity had been increased.  

Max capacity means nothing, number of passengers onboard is what puts the money in their pocket.

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1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Congratulations, you win the internet🤣🤣

 

I am proud I did not start it. I try my best to point to the obvious. I am too logical to be one's friend. 😅

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2 minutes ago, ChC said:

 

I am proud I did not start it. I try my best to point to the obvious. I am too logical to be one's friend. 😅

 

That was sarcasm

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1 minute ago, John&LaLa said:

 

That was sarcasm

 

You will have to read my lines imaging me rolling my eyes all the time...😁

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Posted (edited)

Cruise stocks were tumbling to their lowest point since 2020 on Thursday as fears intensified over rising inflation and a potential recession.

 

Carnival (ticker: CCL) was down 9.5% to $8.91, and was on track for its lowest close since April 2020. Rival Royal Caribbean Group ( RCL) was down 8.5% to $36.31, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings ( NCLH) was trading at $10.67, down 9%. Both Royal Caribbean and Norwegian were poised to close at their lowest points since May 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

 

Fueling the selloff were concerns that consumers will be curbing discretionary spending in response to rising prices and economic uncertainty. There's also an uptick in Covid-19 cases that may be increasing consumer reluctance to hop on a cruise. The seven-day moving average for known Covid-19 cases has hovered around 100,000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and likely is higher amid an increased reliance on at-home testing kits that don't get reported to public officials.

 

Already, cruise lines have experienced pricing declines from May to June, indicating that bookings may be eroding, according to early June data from Bank of America Securities. BofA analyst Andrew Didora views the slowdown as "more specific to the cruise industry than a larger read to the leisure consumer," given further Covid-19 pressures, ongoing pushes to ramp up capacity, and difficulty attracting consumers who are new to cruising.

 

Didora said he expects further pricing weakness ahead for 2023 and 2024, with prices declining 2.6%, on average, for all three major cruise lines. He maintained a Neutral rating on Carnival and Norwegian, and an Underperform on Royal Caribbean.

 

"Cruise lines have been at the center of the pandemic, and the profit recovery continues to be delayed given the different variants," Didora wrote. "This is happening at a time when the market is already factoring in a strong recovery. Given that the industry has taken on considerable amounts of debt in the past year, a long road ahead remains to de-lever and return to pre-pandemic balance sheets."

 

That could be even more challenging if the economy plunges into a recession, which is becoming even more likely as the Federal Reserve moves to increase interest rates at a faster-than-expected pace. On Wednesday, the central bank announced it would raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, the highest single rate hike since 1994.

 

Not all analysts are betting against cruise lines. Susquehanna analyst Christopher Stathoulopoulos initiated coverage of Norwegian and Royal Caribbean at Positive last week, saying the industry was on the mend and had a line of sight toward profitability in 2023.

 

Leo Carrington, analyst at Citigroup, continued to see strength on pent-up demand with most ships back on the water and cruise destinations open, even if web tracking information indicated that interest in cruises ticked down 1% in May, while it increased across all other subsectors.

Edited by Jimbo
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The last week in the market has been especially brutal to all the cruise stocks. While the Dow is down 7%, RCL is down 28% (in the last 5 days). Since cruising resumed this time last year, RCL is down 60%.

 

Interest rate cost on the debt alone area approaching a full quarter operating profit. That is BRUtAL.

 

"For Royal Caribbean, investors can count on profits being lower (or losses higher) by $462 million given that company's $23.1 billion debt.....it appears that over the course of a year, these higher interest rates have the potential to consume as much as a full quarter's worth of forecast operating profit at Royal Caribbean"

 

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/16/why-cruise-stocks-sank-again-on-thursday/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

Wall street is showing very little confidence in the cruise industry.

 

 

image.thumb.png.be34cc35b4e7f506211544d0e2973ce2.png

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17 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

The last week in the market has been especially brutal to all the cruise stocks. While the Dow is down 7%, RCL is down 28% (in the last 5 days). Since cruising resumed this time last year, RCL is down 60%.

 

Interest rate cost on the debt alone area approaching a full quarter operating profit. That is BRUtAL.

 

"For Royal Caribbean, investors can count on profits being lower (or losses higher) by $462 million given that company's $23.1 billion debt.....it appears that over the course of a year, these higher interest rates have the potential to consume as much as a full quarter's worth of forecast operating profit at Royal Caribbean"

 

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/16/why-cruise-stocks-sank-again-on-thursday/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

Wall street is showing very little confidence in the cruise industry.

 

 

image.thumb.png.be34cc35b4e7f506211544d0e2973ce2.png

 

 

So at what price are you a buyer?

 

You mentioned that you liquidated your short positions and might go long at <$40

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

 

 

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

If that happens you are going to see ALOT of stock holders jumping off their  ships.

Edited by Jimbo
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31 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

 

So at what price are you a buyer?

 

You mentioned that you liquidated your short positions and might go long at <$40

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

 

So you are asking my opinion, I'll preface this with I'm nothing more than another idiot on the internet and don't suggest anyone take stock advice from me.

 

With that said, these are my thoughts....

 

I do believe there is risk here. Chapter 11/7/Bk. With this debt, interest rates rising, an all out recession in progress, cruise ship covid protocols, image of cruising in a 'petri dish', price of oil, etc.... I think cruise lines are in serious trouble with no end in the immediate future.

 

With that, I believe RCL is the strongest of the three.

 

The feds increased .75 yesterday. That increase was pretty much built in with Monday/Tuesday tumble. I believe the market is reacting today to rumors of another .75 in July.  I believe it will get worse with our normal Friday sell off tomorrow. I'm not sure the price I"m back in at, but it's possible that tomorrow's low may entice me enough to bite. 

 

I'm trying to figure out how RCL bought the Crystal Endevour. They purchased Silverstein with stock credits, so if they purchased Endevour with the same method it's not a great predictor. If anyone can find this out, I'd be much appreciated. 

 

What are your thoughts?

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27 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

What are your thoughts?

The details of the Endeavour purchase should be listed in about 6 weeks when they file their quarterly with the SEC.

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7 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The details of the Endeavour purchase should be listed in about 6 weeks when they file their quarterly with the SEC.

 

Thank you. I do realize that the quarterlies should include specifics, but I am hoping for some type of leak before then as the results will influence if I buy long with RCL. 

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