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heidikay
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I thought this was interesting. In researching RCL's purchase of Crystal I came across an article talking about the last Crystal ship to be built being sold for scrap. Inside that article mentioned the MV Merften shipyard exiting the ship building busines. A sign of the times for the industry I suspect.

 

Meanwhile, MV Werften’s former facility in Wismar has been sold to ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and will exit the cruise ship building business.

Starting in 2024, the shipyard’s new owner plans to use it to build submarine, corvettes and frigates, according to industry sources.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27676-second-genting-newbuild-to-be-sold-for-scrap.html

 

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Posted (edited)

Not sure what is happening with this thread...........but now when someone posts I'm getting an email alert every single time. Usually it only happens when someone comments on my post.

 

How do I make it stop, it's not happening on any other threads I comment on. Just on this RCCL Stock thread, anyone else having this issue?

 

It's annoying.

Edited by Jimbo
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1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I came across an article talking about the last Crystal ship to be built being sold for scrap.

Read that again - it's a Global class ship for the former Genting line that is being scrapped, not Crystal.

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3 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

How do I make it stop, it's not happening on any other threads I comment on.

You somehow turned on notifications - there should be a way to turn it off at the bottom of the page.

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Just now, Biker19 said:

You somehow turned on notifications - there should be a way to turn it off at the bottom of the page.

Can you turn on notification for just one thread or does turning that on, turn on notifications for ALL threads I look at?

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Posted (edited)

Think I just found it, says follow topic, was switched to the right. 

First time that has happened in 22 years.........

Edited by Jimbo
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3 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

Read that again - it's a Global class ship for the former Genting line that is being scrapped, not Crystal.

 

Yes, that should have read for the "Genting" line. But the Werften did build the Crystal Endeavor. Still interesting. The new owners don't want to get into the ship building game. More money in frigates and submarines :).

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42 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

MSC is not buying any of these lines and has their own ship development plans as well as vertical expansion plans for shipping. 

 

They are however, flush with cash and capital, expanding on a SPREE ~

 

I am almost always in agreement with you, but on this one I'm taking a wait and see approach. I still think it's possible. Sure, MSC has lots of new ships in build, but so does NCL and MSC is thirsty for the market.

 

If MSC can pick up NCL's nice new crispy ships for pennies on the dollar I think they would be interested. NCL new builds follow MSC's philosophy in terms of passenger occupancy (cram in as much as possible).  Of course, nothing but speculation on my part. 

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3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

It's not that dramatic. Lots of purchase/sale information is disclosed before the quarterlies. I wouldn't be surprised if more details of this emerge.

Well if is truly leaked info that would cause actionable behavior (as you said it

would for you) it sounds like any one leaking would be subjecting themselves to some serious risk.  

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I am almost always in agreement with you, but on this one I'm taking a wait and see approach. I still think it's possible. Sure, MSC has lots of new ships in build, but so does NCL and MSC is thirsty for the market.

 

If MSC can pick up NCL's nice new crispy ships for pennies on the dollar I think they would be interested. NCL new builds follow MSC's philosophy in terms of passenger occupancy (cram in as much as possible).  Of course, nothing but speculation on my part. 

 

It's good speculation that NCL would be a fit compared to others if MSC has such an appetite and inclination at all.  NCL doesn't have and wouldn't need to continue spend on developing foreign markets that MSC focuses on and vice-versa.  NCL also has the HAVEN concept akin to the MSC Yacht Club concept.  They are a match in a lot of ways.

 

Re: the 'pennies on the dollar, yep.  Nothing for equity and a haircut for debt holders.

 

CCL simply too big and completely different consumer.  RCL, not sure if also too much to take on with overlap in geographic current markets.

 

 

Edited by At Sea At Peace
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1 hour ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

It's good speculation that NCL would be a fit compared to others if MSC has such an appetite and inclination at all.  NCL doesn't have and wouldn't need to continue spend on developing foreign markets that MSC focuses on and vice-versa.  NCL also has the HAVEN concept akin to the MSC Yacht Club concept.  They are a match in a lot of ways.

 

Re: the 'pennies on the dollar, yep.  Nothing for equity and a haircut for debt holders.

 

CCL simply too big and completely different consumer.  RCL, not sure if also too much to take on with overlap in geographic current markets.

 

 

The synergy doesn’t seem very good for any of these companies.  The airline aircraft are way more like commodities than the uniqueness of varying ships on varying cruise lines.  So the airline mergers made sense and bigger is better when you use a hub and spoke system.  But no so for cruise lines.  Sure, there are arguably some geographical gaps that help it make some sense, but the product synergy or operational synergy isn’t as valuable in my opinion.  The ships are

just so different it would be hard.  None of this even gets at the massive debt these companies all have making them less desirable targets.  An acquisition would either be a risky pure growth move or something insanely opportunistic (like literally pennies on the dollar which I’m not sure we ever see).   That is my two cents.  

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I don't think we'll see acquisitions within the industry. The ships and the USPs are too divergent between cruise lines.

 

We may see a venture/vulture capital firm swoop in and buy a company. With the stock prices at near-all-time lows, that is indeed a possibility. But, I don't see that happening either. Cruising isn't a business you can acquire, make a bunch of cuts to improve profitability, and turnaround for resale quickly.

 

I just think we're going to see low stock prices for a little while longer. I anticipate it'll take until the end of 2023 for things (labour shortages/wages/supply chain/FCC/etc) to settle down. I'm holding on to my shares in RCL at $79. I might buy some more if it dips below $30 to DCA my position.

 

Of course, nobody should listen to me. I'm terrible with money and make poor choices all the time. I'm just chiming in with my opinion on something I really know nothing about. Ain't Cruise Critic great??!!

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3 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

It's good speculation that NCL would be a fit compared to others if MSC has such an appetite and inclination at all. 

 

CCL simply too big and completely different consumer.  RCL, not sure if also too much to take on with overlap in geographic current markets.

 

I believe MSC has the appetite. I remember an interview with the son of the owner (forget his name) who stated that MSC wanted to become the largest cruise line in the world. That interview was pre-covid.

 

MSC currently has 11 new ships on order (did I mention appetite?) and the new MSC World will hold the same number of people as Oasis class and use LNG propulsion technology which is kinda a big deal in the age of sustainable tourism.  If you look at the ship designs, the Seaside resembles NCL's Away class with lots of use of the promenade and the World looks very similar to oasis class with boardwalk area. And of course, as you said, MSC Yacht Club and NCL Haven are quite similar in concept. 

 

As you know with my 3 bears analogy, I also agree: CCL is too big for a single acquisition and I think RCL is going to make it all on their own. 

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CCL today announced a venture with MGM to operate sports books on 50 Carnival, HAL and Princess ships.  I'm sure Royal will be an interested observer as any opportunity for additional onboard revenue would be welcome.  

 

CCL also announced it will be holding an analyst update session next Friday.  Coming this close to the end of the quarter can only assume they will be pre-announcing a disappointing quarter.  Their disclosures might also impact the stocks of RCL and NCLH.  

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3 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

CCL today announced a venture with MGM to operate sports books on 50 Carnival, HAL and Princess ships.  I'm sure Royal will be an interested observer as any opportunity for additional onboard revenue would be welcome.  

 

CCL also announced it will be holding an analyst update session next Friday.  Coming this close to the end of the quarter can only assume they will be pre-announcing a disappointing quarter.  Their disclosures might also impact the stocks of RCL and NCLH.  

That is interesting as Royal has a partnership relation with MLife, MGM's loyalty brand.

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30 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Their disclosures might also impact the stocks of RCL and NCLH.  

 

All three cruise lines move entirely in sync and have done so for a long time. It's like they are one in the same. I'm certain that whatever CCL has to say will effect RCL and NCLH. Here is what the graph has looked like over the last year, hardly any variation at all. 

 

image.thumb.png.bae7dcff970faf0dae4af5f97e10494e.png

 

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1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

All three cruise lines move entirely in sync and have done so for a long time. It's like they are one in the same. I'm certain that whatever CCL has to say will effect RCL and NCLH. Here is what the graph has looked like over the last year, hardly any variation at all. 

 

image.thumb.png.bae7dcff970faf0dae4af5f97e10494e.png

 

Well.  Since Covid it is almost entirely external factors impacting the industry in the same way.  So this chart is a good reflection of that.  

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Either you believe in the company based on their metrics or you don't.  If you're an investor,  buy...buy....buy. If you're a trader, good luck.

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2 hours ago, Big_G said:

Either you believe in the company based on their metrics or you don't.  If you're an investor,  buy...buy....buy. If you're a trader, good luck.

What metrics would suggest it is a good investment? 🤔

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3 hours ago, Big_G said:

Either you believe in the company based on their metrics or you don't.  If you're an investor,  buy...buy....buy. If you're a trader, good luck.

If you’re a trader and willing to put the time and effort in to it, luck becomes less of a factor, and the rewards can be very impressive.

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17 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

If you’re a trader and willing to put the time and effort in to it, luck becomes less of a factor, and the rewards can be very impressive.

 

With volatility this high you'll need some luck no matter how much research you do.

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