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RCL Stock


heidikay
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54 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Endeavor is a 200 passenger glorified yacht.  Can't expect it to have any impact on RCL's financials.  If CDC news means no more testing that will help however the airline mess makes people less willing to travel.  European airports are an absolute disaster.  Got back from Munich Saturday and still waiting for Lufthansa to locate our four bags.

 

A glorified yacht with crazy prices. I do believe it will impact Royal's finances. Maybe not enough to move the stock pricing, but still.

 

I do believe we have found a bottom for the stock around $32, I won't be surprised if we test this bottom again but stay patient is key.

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A RCL bull vs bear debate posted by Motley Fool today. Scroll down to the heading Bull vs Bear to see Lou Whitman and Jamai Lukou discuss opposing viewpoints. No matter what we feel about Motley Fool I found it interesting.  Where do you stand? 

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/20/bull-vs-bear-royal-caribbean-cruises/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

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1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

A RCL bull vs bear debate posted by Motley Fool today. Scroll down to the heading Bull vs Bear to see Lou Whitman and Jamai Lukou discuss opposing viewpoints. No matter what we feel about Motley Fool I found it interesting.  Where do you stand? 

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/20/bull-vs-bear-royal-caribbean-cruises/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

Not sure who's balance sheet the "Bull" was looking at (or maybe what he was imbibing) but how can he say Royal has been aggressively paying down debt and debt is currently only 1x equity?  As of 3/31 ltd / equity was 7.26.  Equally scary, he says the biggest reason to be bullish is Royals efforts to use technology to boost revenue.  Their IT dept and web site have been ridiculed endlessly on these boards. 

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3 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Not sure who's balance sheet the "Bull" was looking at (or maybe what he was imbibing) but how can he say Royal has been aggressively paying down debt and debt is currently only 1x equity?  As of 3/31 ltd / equity was 7.26.  Equally scary, he says the biggest reason to be bullish is Royals efforts to use technology to boost revenue.  Their IT dept and web site have been ridiculed endlessly on these boards. 


IKR- these guys crack me up. 
 

So much misleading info being spewed about. Just read an article saying 80% of respondents have a cruise planned, but the respondents were customers of a cruise travel agency lol 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

 

thanks! Been so long since I’ve seen one 🙂

 

edit to add- I just looked- does that seem like an extra amount of cruises on sale? I don’t think I remember that many. What about prices? More/less than pre covid? 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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Oh boy... CCL offered another 1 billion in common stock after close and dropped 10%. RCL and NCL dropped 5% after the announcement. Tomorrow could prove to have lots of movement. T

 

Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE: CCL; NYSE: CUK), today announced that Carnival Corporation (the "Company") has commenced an underwritten public offering of $1,000,000,000 of shares of common stock of the Company. The Company intends to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to $150,000,000 of additional shares of common stock of the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which could include addressing 2023 debt maturities.

Read more at: https://www.lelezard.com/en/news-20486138.html

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Posted (edited)
On 7/18/2022 at 6:43 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

And with today's news and the CDC stepping away, it might be time to consider flipping my shorts. This is good day for the cruise industry!!

Closing out your shorts is likely a prudent (and profitable) move. Congrats by the why. I'm not considering going long just yet even with some speculative 'play' money. The Macro head winds combined with RCL's financial leverage and the limited upside for the stock are making me take a wait and see attitude. I think the upside for this stock is limited because if and when the stock goes back to $60 or $90 per share we could see a huge new equity issue done to repair the balance sheet. That would be good for the corporation's financial health in the long term but it would also massively dilute the equity shareholders and limit the upside for the stock. 

 

Edited by DirtyDawg
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On 7/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, John&LaLa said:

 

I just did a screenshot of the transaction screen. No need to hide anything😁

 

On a related note, just got an email saying no OBC will be applied to a casino comp cruise

We got the same email.  Bummer😔

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Just now, DirtyDawg said:

Closing out your shorts is likely a prudent (and profitable) move. Congrats by the why. I'm not considering going long just yet even with some speculative 'play' money. The Macro head winds combined with RCL's financial leverage and the limited upside for the stock are making me take a wait and see attitude. I think the upside for this stock is limited because if and when the stock goes back to $60 or $90 per share we could see a huge new equity issue done to repair the balance sheet. That  which would be good for the corporation's financial health in the long term but it would also massively dilute the equity shareholders and limit the upside for the stock. 

 

Thank you. I didn't close the shorts yet. With the news of CCL offering the common stock I've made a good bit of cash overnight. CCL is down nearly 15% while RCL and NCL are down around 10%. Like you said, I do think there is still room to move down but I don't want to be greedy either. 

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Just now, exm said:

It's amazing how all 3 cruise stocks move hand-in-hand. I guess WS assumes that RCL and NCL follows CCL?

 

Well, all three balance sheets are upside down and the industry as a whole is struggling to say the least. But yes, they all move in sync and have since the pandemic. It makes things a bit easier for the day traders lol

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10 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Oh boy... CCL offered another 1 billion in common stock after close and dropped 10%. RCL and NCL dropped 5% after the announcement. Tomorrow could prove to have lots of movement. T

 

Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE: CCL; NYSE: CUK), today announced that Carnival Corporation (the "Company") has commenced an underwritten public offering of $1,000,000,000 of shares of common stock of the Company. The Company intends to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to $150,000,000 of additional shares of common stock of the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which could include addressing 2023 debt maturities.

Read more at: https://www.lelezard.com/en/news-20486138.html

Now that's a bad sign. Corporate Finance 101 says sell equity when the price is high, not low. 

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7 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Thank you. I didn't close the shorts yet. With the news of CCL offering the common stock I've made a good bit of cash overnight. CCL is down nearly 15% while RCL and NCL are down around 10%. Like you said, I do think there is still room to move down but I don't want to be greedy either. 

I managed money professionally for 30ish years and every time I got too greedy Mr./Mrs. Market handed me my head! Take the singles and doubles and the home runs will take care of themselves!

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20 minutes ago, exm said:

It's amazing how all 3 cruise stocks move hand-in-hand. I guess WS assumes that RCL and NCL follows CCL?

Not very amazing at all. For most industries, the stocks of the various company's stocks move in sync with each other because Macro forces have the same affect on each company in the industry. The differences occur due to various qualities of management, gaining or loosing market share, and individual company financial leverage. For the cruise industry they all have similar weak financials (to varying degrees), fairly stable market shares, and the quality of management, based on reading the posts around here, seem to be equally as bad. 😉

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Cruise stocks are down today because Carnival announced yesterday after the close, that they are issuing another 1 billion dollars worth of new stock. The cruise lines have a TON of debt and have already issued millions of new shares since the pandemic started. The earnings per share are going downhill quickly with so many additional shares issued. Financially speaking, the cruise stocks are literally a shell of what they once were pre-pandemic. I honestly believe that if there was any more cruise no sale orders in the future, the cruise lines probably would BK with such massive debt.

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RCL will report earnings in just two weeks on August 3rd.  Suggest anyone tempted to invest hold off until then to hear what Jason Liberty has to say.  Three months ago Liberty was upbeat on the outlook for '22 and '23, expecting to turn cash flow positive soon and maybe turn a profit in q4.  Interested to hear if he has tempered his enthusiasm.  

 

As far as potential stock issuance, going into q2 common equity for RCL was down to $4B after losing $1B+ in each of the prior two quarters.  Another big loss would almost certainly force them to issue a large amount of stock, likely at prices lower than today. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

RCL will report earnings in just two weeks on August 3rd.  Suggest anyone tempted to invest hold off until then to hear what Jason Liberty has to say.  

 

And NCL will report just a few days after RCL. With the Feds reporting interest rates before both. I agree, avoid temptation for at least a few more weeks. I would be shocked if RCL and NCL don't have to follow suit and dilute also. 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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