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On 7/21/2022 at 4:37 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

And NCL will report just a few days after RCL. With the Feds reporting interest rates before both. I agree, avoid temptation for at least a few more weeks. I would be shocked if RCL and NCL don't have to follow suit and dilute also. 

 

I'm going all-in this afternoon after the FED's decision hoping the RCL numbers will be good. We have soon 10% bumps before. Take your profit and wait for NCL's numbers.

 

 

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19 hours ago, exm said:

 

I'm going all-in this afternoon after the FED's decision hoping the RCL numbers will be good. We have soon 10% bumps before. Take your profit and wait for NCL's numbers.

 

 

 

This should be a good day, hopefully we'll go up by 10%+.

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22 hours ago, molly361 said:

Curious what the answer will be on continued testing.  Guessing someone will be asking about that and vaccines

There's a couple of threads taht mandatory testing for sails longer than 6 nights.  Makes no sense.

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Royal Caribbean Group said it now expects a loss in the second half of the year, citing increases in fuel costs, interest rates and foreign-exchange rates.

 

In May, the cruise company said it expected to return to net profit for the second half of the year. The company did forecast a return to profitability, on an adjusted basis, for the third quarter. That would mark its first profitable quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent government regulations cooled demand for cruising.

 

For the current quarter, the company said it expects revenue between $2.9 billion and $3 billion on adjusted earnings of 5 cents a share to 25 cents a share. The guidance is based on current currency-exchange rates, fuel costs and interest rates.

 

The company said it expects about $319 million in fuel costs for the third quarter, net of hedging.

 

Booking volumes for the recently ended quarter averaged 30% above comparable 2019 levels, with even greater strength in July, the company said. Load factors, or occupancy, in the second half of the year are still below historical levels and are expected to finish at about 95% in the third quarter.

 

Royal Caribbean Now Expects Loss in Second Half of 2022 - MarketWatch

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People are buying these headlines today:

 

"Royal Caribbean sees return to profitability in second quarter"

"Royal Caribbean's loss narrows as cruise bookings rebound"

 

But the devil is in the details. Interest rates and fuel cost continue to hinder any long range progress:

"Royal Caribbean Now Expects Loss in Second Half of 2022"

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

People are buying these headlines today:

 

"Royal Caribbean sees return to profitability in second quarter"

"Royal Caribbean's loss narrows as cruise bookings rebound"

 

But the devil is in the details. Interest rates and fuel cost continue to hinder any long range progress:

"Royal Caribbean Now Expects Loss in Second Half of 2022"

 

 

And Free Cash Flow in Q2 was in the range of -$3B (-.5B from Ops and -2.5B from Capex and Cash paid on settlement of derivative financial instruments) 

 

But hey, RCL is dropping mask requirements! 🥳

 

Edited by DirtyDawg
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We have continued to buy stock in RCL, NCL, and AirBNB from the initial dive through the last weeks. I have no more ability to predict the future than anyone else, but we feel good about these for the future. But the numbers show that at this time the things that people are still spending money on are gas, food, and travel.

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Just now, AlohaLivin said:

We have continued to buy stock in RCL, NCL, and AirBNB from the initial dive through the last weeks. I have no more ability to predict the future than anyone else, but we feel good about these for the future. But the numbers show that at this time the things that people are still spending money on are gas, food, and travel.

 

I don't have an ability to predict the future anymore than you do, but what people are spending money on may not be enough to save the cruise lines from restructuring. To me, servicing the debt appears  insurmountable, even if cruises are sailing at 100% occupancy. IMO, the option of wiping out debt and starting fresh is on the table. 

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Jason Liberty apparently commented RCL has no current plans to issue equity.  That's the good news.

 

Read through the earnings announcement which shows continued slow, gradual improvement.  Little hope for rapid return to profitability but no new red flags either.  Would have hoped for greater enthusiasm for 4q '22 when loads are expected to top 100%.  

 

One item that struck me was the expense ratios at the  end of the financials.  They report total Gross Costs per APCD at just over $200.  Gross costs include just about everything except interest expense.  Adding that $300mm brings total costs up to $230 per APCD implying that if every ship was sailing at 100% occupancy they need to earn $230/pp/day to break even. While suites run a lot higher they only make up around 15% of cabins.  Yesterday while perusing October '22 - April '23 sailings for a number of ships I was struck by how most were offering balconies for only around $77/night.  Even next summer balconies on Caribbean itineraries are only running $150 - $170 pp/day.  Onboard sales will help but they'll need stronger pricing to generate any meaningful earnings.

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30 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Jason Liberty apparently commented RCL has no current plans to issue equity.  That's the good news.

 

Read through the earnings announcement which shows continued slow, gradual improvement.  Little hope for rapid return to profitability but no new red flags either.  Would have hoped for greater enthusiasm for 4q '22 when loads are expected to top 100%.  

 

One item that struck me was the expense ratios at the  end of the financials.  They report total Gross Costs per APCD at just over $200.  Gross costs include just about everything except interest expense.  Adding that $300mm brings total costs up to $230 per APCD implying that if every ship was sailing at 100% occupancy they need to earn $230/pp/day to break even. While suites run a lot higher they only make up around 15% of cabins.  Yesterday while perusing October '22 - April '23 sailings for a number of ships I was struck by how most were offering balconies for only around $77/night.  Even next summer balconies on Caribbean itineraries are only running $150 - $170 pp/day.  Onboard sales will help but they'll need stronger pricing to generate any meaningful earnings.

No way would I pay $230 pp per day for a standard balcony cabin.

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12 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

No way would I pay $230 pp per day for a standard balcony cabin.

 

Our upcoming GS on Voyager is $90 pppd

 

Addind airfare brings it to $400+

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

5 years retired. Miles all gone. Actually fine with that😁

The one-way economy air from LHR was priced at $2k+ per person, so it was definitely better to use miles.

 

The miles were actually my [now deceased] fathers.  Also booked air to CPH for 30k each with his miles. 

 

I have a bunch of AA miles, plus tons of points with Chase and AMEX that I can convert to miles.

 

Maybe I will use some of my miles after I retire in December.  🙂

 

Edited by Another_Critic
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41 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Our upcoming GS on Voyager is $90 pppd

 

Addind airfare brings it to $400+

You stole that cabin.  😄

 

My Spacious Oceanview for my Voyager TA is $75 pppd.  It's currently going for $200 pppd.  😲

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6 minutes ago, Another_Critic said:

You stole that cabin.  😄

 

My Spacious Oceanview for my Voyager TA is $75 pppd.  It's currently going for $200 pppd.  😲

 

L&S from Adventure to Jewel to Voyager.

 

Started with a VP. Jewel doesnt have them, so TA got me a GS. Moved to Voyager and got an extra day. 😇

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4 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

L&S from Adventure to Jewel to Voyager.

 

Started with a VP. Jewel doesnt have them, so TA got me a GS. Moved to Voyager and got an extra day. 😇

Yeah, mine was L&S from 12 night Jewel TA to 14 night Voyager TA.  🙂

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