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RCL Stock


heidikay
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56 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

Not sure what they see even at this level.

They probably see the massive debt the lines have taken on and what’s happening in the world financially such as inflation and possible a deeper recession. Cruising is considered discretionary spending and that’s one of the first things that gets cut when money gets tight.

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Consider that 12/19 pre-pandemic the market valued RCL at $40B ($12B debt + 209mm shares @ $136).  Today's value is $36B ($24B debt + 255mm shares @ $47).  After being shut down for almost two years having enterprise value of  business down only 10% isn't bad.  A $15 increase in stock price to $62 would get them back to the 12/19 level.  Stock was in $60's four months ago so if reports of strong bookings translate into positive cash flow and earnings could soon get it there again.

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33 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Consider that 12/19 pre-pandemic the market valued RCL at $40B ($12B debt + 209mm shares @ $136).  Today's value is $36B ($24B debt + 255mm shares @ $47).  After being shut down for almost two years having enterprise value of  business down only 10% isn't bad.  A $15 increase in stock price to $62 would get them back to the 12/19 level.  Stock was in $60's four months ago so if reports of strong bookings translate into positive cash flow and earnings could soon get it there again.

Stock price was over $90 in February of this year and over $98 in November of 2022, how does that work out in your calculations?

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September 23 m2022  After hours price of RCL $44.21  , another .21 cents per share in the red after dropping  $2.58  in the regular session  . imo , this market has not seen a bottom  ,It may get a dead cat bounce  but ,it is headed a lot lower . Better to be short than  long these days  ,Because the  FED  has to keep raining interest rates ,few , very few companies can generate enough cash flow for  expansion needs  ,Thus they will be borrowing at ever higher interest rates  & thus their earnings will decrease dramatically , sort of  like a snow ball going down hill 

There is no bright side to this market with a  tough recession looming  & much higher unemployment  in the future , so how can the stock market rebound in that negative environment never the less cruise line stocks servicing very high debt loads 

 

Botton line is do not buy 100 shares if RCL stock .I t definitely could see prices in the $20s per share  & if RCL does need more cash flow all they need do is float a Billion  in new stock shares like CCL just did to  their existing share holders , The last we saw that is called  dilution  

 

You should ask your self is the stock holder share  benefit  worth that risk ?

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

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20 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

September 23 m2022  After hours price of RCL $44.21  , another .21 cents per share in the red after dropping  $2.58  in the regular session  . imo , this market has not seen a bottom  ,It may get a dead cat bounce  but ,it is headed a lot lower . Better to be short than  long these days  ,Because the  FED  has to keep raining interest rates ,few , very few companies can generate enough cash flow for  expansion needs  ,Thus they will be borrowing at ever higher interest rates  & thus their earnings will decrease dramatically , sort of  like a snow ball going down hill 

There is no bright side to this market with a  tough recession looming  & much higher unemployment  in the future , so how can the stock market rebound in that negative environment never the less cruise line stocks servicing very high debt loads 

 

Botton line is do not buy 100 shares if RCL stock .I t definitely could see prices in the $20s per share  & if RCL does need more cash flow all they need do is float a Billion  in new stock shares like CCL just did to  their existing share holders , The last we saw that is called  dilution  

 

You should ask your self is the stock holder share  benefit  worth that risk ?

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

I bought at $25 as Covid hit but sold in the $50s. I should have held on.

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3 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

I bought at $25 as Covid hit but sold in the $50s. I should have held on.

Never ever think that you did wrong . That is a  nice gain . It is  Important to take gains  . Gains helps the mind for future gains , I have been  triple shorting the S& P with excellent results . Easy  peasy in this market as it sinks lower 

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37 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

I bought at $25 as Covid hit but sold in the $50s. I should have held on.

You never get hurt taking a profit. I think you did the right thing. All stocks went down this week its not an RCL thing necessarily. A rally to the upside is due soon. It will be like the summer one most likely with more downside later and recession in 2023 or a bit later. Its just a nasty cycle and I hope the cruise lines can survive.

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On 9/23/2022 at 6:02 PM, grandgeezer said:

What do you consider all in, more than the 100 shares it takes to get the shareholder obc.

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

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2 hours ago, exm said:

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

If you stick it in RCL or any other cruise stock, you might have a long wait for any decent return. The $25,000,000,000 they have in debt will haunt them for a long time.

A nice chunk of cash is open to interpretation, to me it would be a minimum of $100,000. Anything less than that is pocket change.

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On 9/22/2022 at 2:32 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

Consider that 12/19 pre-pandemic the market valued RCL at $40B ($12B debt + 209mm shares @ $136).  Today's value is $36B ($24B debt + 255mm shares @ $47).  After being shut down for almost two years having enterprise value of  business down only 10% isn't bad.  A $15 increase in stock price to $62 would get them back to the 12/19 level.  Stock was in $60's four months ago so if reports of strong bookings translate into positive cash flow and earnings could soon get it there again.

Many older issues of Royal's bonds are trading at significant discounts to par or 'book' value. The book value of Royal's debt may be $24B but the market value is less. 

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On 9/25/2022 at 6:09 PM, grandgeezer said:

If you stick it in RCL or any other cruise stock, you might have a long wait for any decent return. The $25,000,000,000 they have in debt will haunt them for a long time.

A nice chunk of cash is open to interpretation, to me it would be a minimum of $100,000. Anything less than that is pocket change.

 

Yes, 6 figures. I do think within the next 12 months there's plenty of upside.

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39 minutes ago, exm said:

 

Yes, 6 figures. I do think within the next 12 months there's plenty of upside.

I think you are way to optimistic, this is the same mindset that popped up when it dropped below $20 over two years ago. Inflation is going crazy, and the so called recession has just got going. If this last too long, it could seriously harm the industry. Just recently they borrowed a couple billion dollars to pay off payments due in 2022 and 2023. They had to pay about 11% on the money, as in junk bonds, as they are considered a risk.

Think about it, all the ships are sailing, their occupancy is up, probably 80+%, and the stock is at $44.04, $96 below the all time high that paid $3.16 per share, annually in dividends.

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CCL released this morning and missed big. 

 

All three stocks are reacting negatively to the CCL ER.

 

RCL down 9%

NCL down 10%

CCL down 18%

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-third-131500116.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

 

 

 

 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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2 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

CCL showed a positive EBITDA?  I'll buy another 100 shares, why not?

 

None of this matters until I need the money, and I'm probably 20 years from that point. 

 

A positive EBITDA because they diluted another 1.5 Billion. 

 

Still room to fall IMO.

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Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

A positive EBITDA because they diluted another 1.5 Billion. 

 

Still room to fall IMO.

 

I don't really try to time markets -- dollar cost average over 31 years of investing puts me way ahead of my peers and colleagues.  

 

But my incomes always do better in recessions (which we've obviously been in for awhile) so if I have extra play money, I always like to put it towards industries I use.  I cruise WAY more during recessions, so what's the risk over 20 years of potential growth?

 

I don't foresee them going BK -- and it's not like it's going to be money I'm taking from living expenses.   No gamble here, not really.

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2 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

I don't foresee them going BK -- and it's not like it's going to be money I'm taking from living expenses.   No gamble here, not really.

 

 

I believe Ch 11 is on the table, but if I was a young investor like you, I might take a chance. As a retired Gen Z, I'm holding this short for the quick win. 

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