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Daniel A

Carnival Stock Price Dropping

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I just checked the price of Carnival Corp stock.  It was at $33 and change.  Not so good for a lot of us, but it may be a good time to keep an eye on the stock if you were planning on making a purchase in order to qualify for shareholder OBC.  I'm not really into the stock market so I am not making any suggestion about whether to buy or not, I'm just suggesting that it has gotten pretty low and is worth following.  YMMV.

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I said way earlier in the thread my buy is $32.00 prices just hit 30.97...  I think it will go down further.  I updated my buy to 28.00...and I put in the buy order.   We shall see.

 

 

Edited by Drinal01

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11 minutes ago, Drinal01 said:

I said way earlier in the thread my buy is $32.00 prices just hit 30.97...  I think it will go down further.  I updated my buy to 28.00...and I put in the buy order.   We shall see.

 

 

We are also monitoring the price and will buy if it hits $28!

 

Looked at purchasing after disembarking in January.  Price was around $55 a share and decided it wasn’t worth the investment at the time.  Glad we waited...

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Both Grand Caymans and Jamaica refused to let a MSC ship dock yesterday because a crew member had the flu.  If the Caribbean country stop allowing cruise ships to dock because of fear over spread of disease the Cruise lines are in real trouble.

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25 minutes ago, disneyochem said:

We are also monitoring the price and will buy if it hits $28!

 

Looked at purchasing after disembarking in January.  Price was around $55 a share and decided it wasn’t worth the investment at the time.  Glad we waited...

 

I have no doubt it will go much lower if mass cancellations start to hit the cruise lines!!

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If this virus gets as bad as they're predicting, cruise companies will be filing for chapter 11.. 

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How many shares do you need for OBC ? How much is OBC ? I previously did not pay much attention to this but a low price might make it interesting.

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You need a minimum of 100 shares and you get 50 - 250 OBC per sailing:

> 1-6 days = 50

> 7- 13 days = 100

> 14+ days = 250 

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5 minutes ago, Tedferg said:

How many shares do you need for OBC ? How much is OBC ? I previously did not pay much attention to this but a low price might make it interesting.

100 shares of CCL (Carnival Cruise Line) stock.  It is a great deal at the current price.

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They could always choose to end the OBC perk if things continue as they are.

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Thanks for reponses - just checked, it was $30 at 10:00 today but has risen to $33. Still a good idea.

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I anticipate it dropping much lower as more of the virus emerges.  I have owned it for well over 10 years and never lost money on it till now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it below 20. As more cruises get cancelled and fewer are offered, times will be tough in this segment. I want to see the bottom and then see some recovery before I jump back in. The cruise credit is nice but I don’t want to bleed hard dollars to get it. 

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We bought it at $42 last Friday. Wish we would have waited.🙂 As long as they don't go out of business, it will eventually come back. I don't think it's worth buying for the OBC unless you really want the stock.

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5 minutes ago, travelhound said:

We bought it at $42 last Friday. Wish we would have waited.🙂 As long as they don't go out of business, it will eventually come back. I don't think it's worth buying for the OBC unless you really want the stock.

It's been pretty consistent about paying dividends and the more you cruise with a Carnival Corp line, the more benefit you get from ownership.  I guess it really comes down to how successful one's other investments are doing and how often one cruises...

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At this point I would expect the dividends to either dry up or go down by a large margin. As long as they don't discontinue the OBC it works for me as we have recovered or initial purchase price. If it gets ridiculously low I "might" be tempted to purchase more and hold it for future sale.

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1 hour ago, Geoffa30 said:

They could always choose to end the OBC perk if things continue as they are.

That would be a massive mistake for two reasons:

 

1. It would hurt the stock price as those who had purchased the stock primarily for OBC sell off their shares.

 

2. Would hurt sales.  Owners of the stock are probably their most loyal customers.  If cruise line eliminates the incentive, upset customers may choose a different line or not to cruise.

 

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37 minutes ago, travelhound said:

I don't think it's worth buying for the OBC unless you really want the stock.

 

Disagree.  If you take one 14 day cruise per year you are making $50 more per year in OBC than you are in dividends.  And unlike dividends OBC is tax free.  

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Dividends vs OBC, that's true

 I meant it might not be low enough yet to not actually lose money on the stock itself. We have lost 30% in a week. Actually, haven't really lost it, since we didn't sell it.

 

As for consistent dividends...they cut it to zero after the financial crisis and it wasn't restored until I think 2017.

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I doubt they will cut OBC, they might even increase it as an incentive for bookings. After all, unlike a dividend which consumes cash the OBC is only used when someone pays to be on a ship and they actual cost to the cruise line is only about 50 cents on the dollar  in actual costs, rest is only a reduction in opportunity cost.

 

I do not expect the dividend to last the year, if the spread does not substantially reduce at the end of cold-flu season.  Even if it does I expect Covid-19 to return next cold-flu season.  Of course by then we might have a vaccine.

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1 hour ago, travelhound said:

We bought it at $42 last Friday. Wish we would have waited.🙂 As long as they don't go out of business, it will eventually come back. I don't think it's worth buying for the OBC unless you really want the stock.

I sold mine last Friday.  First time in 11 years that I have not held CCL.  I expect that I will have the opportunity to buy it at a much lower price.

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I really doubt they will cut the Shareholder OBC benefit but, just to be on the safe side, I just faxed my Shareholder Request for my cruises next May/June. Never hurts to get it applied early. I love being able to do it without the old hassle of waiting until shortly before final payment.

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22 minutes ago, travelhound said:

Dividends vs OBC, that's true

 I meant it might not be low enough yet to not actually lose money on the stock itself. We have lost 30% in a week. Actually, haven't really lost it, since we didn't sell it.

 

As for consistent dividends...they cut it to zero after the financial crisis and it wasn't restored until I think 2017.

 

7 minutes ago, npcl said:

I doubt they will cut OBC, they might even increase it as an incentive for bookings. After all, unlike a dividend which consumes cash the OBC is only used when someone pays to be on a ship and they actual cost to the cruise line is only about 50 cents on the dollar  in actual costs, rest is only a reduction in opportunity cost.

 

I do not expect the dividend to last the year, if the spread does not substantially reduce at the end of cold-flu season.  Even if it does I expect Covid-19 to return next cold-flu season.  Of course by then we might have a vaccine.

I expect the dividend to disappear.  Don’t know how long before it will come back.  But assuming the OBC does not change and you take one 14 day cruise per year, at the current price you are getting ~8% yield on the OBC.  That is not shabby.  If your horizon is you plan to hold for 10 to 20 years with an annual cruise each of those year, owning 100 shares is a smart move.  But as a short term investment, it is very risky.

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54 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

 

I expect the dividend to disappear.  Don’t know how long before it will come back.  But assuming the OBC does not change and you take one 14 day cruise per year, at the current price you are getting ~8% yield on the OBC.  That is not shabby.  If your horizon is you plan to hold for 10 to 20 years with an annual cruise each of those year, owning 100 shares is a smart move.  But as a short term investment, it is very risky.

And since we just retired (late 50's) and have started cruising more, we feel that we will certainly benefit from owning the stock.

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The good news is I bought my 100 shares after the Costa ship sank nearly 14 years ago. I've made my money back and then some through dividends and onboard credits. It's hard to see my paper profits disappear, though. If it drops much lower, I'll buy some extra shares in hopes that I can sell if the price eventually rebounds. It's hard for me to imagine a world without cruise ships.

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