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Daniel A

Carnival Stock Price Dropping

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If the government bans cruising for a period of time, the stock probably goes below 10. Thats when i would buy. 

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2 minutes ago, drowelf said:

How much consolidation can actually go on? CCL/RCL have dozens of brands under each of their umbrellas. Who are the major players outside of them. I know that NCL, Viking and now Virgin are not under the CCL/RCL brand, any others? 

Viking, Virgin, MSC, and Disney come to mind, in a addition to dozens of smaller brands.  Disney and MSC have corporate parents with deep pockets.  I'm not sure how Virgin is financed; I think Bain was involved but I don't know how much capital they are others want to throw at it.  I know little about Viking.

 

That said, my gut tells me the big three (CCL, RCCL, and NCLH) will be able to find capital, even if they have to pay dearly for it.  That may be harder for the smaller players, forcing bankruptcy or sales to companies that can weather the storm.

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Posted (edited)
On 2/28/2020 at 8:40 AM, ed01106 said:

This is pure speculation. 

 

I tend to agree we haven’t seen the bottom of the tourism stocks but reality is your broker doesn’t know the future.

 

On 2/28/2020 at 8:10 AM, Justalone said:

My broker suggested CCL will soon dip to $8 or less.   And may cut the annual dividend to zero.  

On Board Credit benefit will do no good if no one is cruising.

It will take years for CCL, if they don’t go bankrupt, to rebound from losses....and return to profitability..  unless one can wait 10-20 years if you currently have CCL stock.   Due to soon to be announced Corona virus as a world wide pandemic, she  advised to avoid all cruise company stocks as well as some airline stocks. She says  for now travel industry sector as a whole is too risky to invest in.

 

 

On 2/28/2020 at 8:40 AM, ed01106 said:

This is pure speculation. 

 

I tend to agree we haven’t seen the bottom of the tourism stocks but reality is your broker doesn’t know the future.

 

On 2/28/2020 at 4:13 PM, Colo Cruiser said:

I call BS

 

You think so?

I am so very glad I listened to the wisdom of my stock broker.   Bought put contracts on CCL.   Now hoping CCL stock will fall even lower.  

She also suggested shorting the stock market. Which I did.

Also increased my position in gold bars as a hedge.  Filled up one of my safety deposit boxes with gold bars.

She predicts OBC will continue as an incentive for cruisers to commit to cruising with Princess. 👍

She believes it is highly probable Princess will discontinue or reduce dividend payout.  👎

Believe what you want.   Buy more CCL stock and dollar average.   Maybe get you investment back in 5-10 years. In the meantime,  go on more cruises.   Take advantage of  your OBC.   It is going to be a fun ride.😁

 

 

Edited by Justalone

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1 hour ago, drowelf said:

How much consolidation can actually go on? CCL/RCL have dozens of brands under each of their umbrellas. Who are the major players outside of them. I know that NCL, Viking and now Virgin are not under the CCL/RCL brand, any others? 

Would not expect much consolidation because all of the companies are going to be under financial pressure so doubt anyone has the cash to absorb any that might fail.

 

I am more interested to see if any of the majors drop or merge any of their internal brands.  If any of the brands individually are weak you might see one or more go away and be absorbed within another brand of the holding company.

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40 minutes ago, npcl said:

Why would the US government bail out the cruise industry?  They are foreign corporations that just happen to have their Corporate HQ's here.  If they want a bail out they should ask the countries where their tax homes are.  In the case of CCL Panama.

 

If there was an industry that the US government has little incentive to help it would be the cruise industry.  Few american employees. Avoids most US taxes.  Ship building and dry docks are outside the US.

 

The only real impact on the US if the business goes away is on the port cities where ships are home ported and to some degree Alaska.  Pretty minimal.

Totally agree  . File for bankrupt reorganization  is a possibility  . It really depends on how long this virus  lasts especially here in the USA 

 I would not buy any travel industry company shares of stock  ,at this time  . Certainly the bottom of their stock prices have yet to be seen  & even if  they go into the penny stock pink sheets area & then   how long will it take to recover &   get to list  on a major exchange ? In our case we would not live so long 

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1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

 

What is CCL worth if there is a three or sixth months industry cancellation? Based on back-of-envelop guesstimates, $30 would be a decent price for a short shutdown and $25 for a longer shutdown.

 

 

 

 

Ignoring your mutation comment, those numbers are encouraging. My dh bought some today. I bought bank and utility stocks. Our poor money manager has a hard time balancing our joint portfolio to our risk acceptance levels! 

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1 minute ago, XLVIII said:

Trump vows to help cruise lines:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/trump-says-u-s-to-help-cruise-lines-airlines-as-virus-spreads

 

CCL, NCL and RCL stocks all rebounding after this announcement. We'll see if it holds.

Will be interesting to see if Congress is willing to go along, since any real help would require their approval.  Unlike banks which were key to the US economy, and GM which had major union involvement (the first time that the union's interests, were moved ahead of the interests of the debt holders in a bankruptcy), the cruise lines are neither key to the economy, nor do they have substantial union involvement.  

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, XLVIII said:

Trump vows to help cruise lines:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/trump-says-u-s-to-help-cruise-lines-airlines-as-virus-spreads

 

CCL, NCL and RCL stocks all rebounding after this announcement. We'll see if it holds.

 

I'm struggling to figure out ways to help them to offset the ways they've been hurt over the past few days (the hypercautious ports, the CDC/State Dept. announcements).  The only way I see is cash bailouts, which doesn't sound appealing and doesn't really solve the industry's problems IMHO.

Edited by Honolulu Blue

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8 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

I'm struggling to figure out ways to help them to offset the ways they've been hurt over the past few days (the hypercautious ports, the CDC/State Dept. announcements).  The only way I see is cash bailouts, which doesn't sound appealing and doesn't really solve the industry's problems IMHO.

After all the mechanisms that he had talked about earlier, tax credits, would help the airlines, but would not help cruise line cash flow problems.  Especially since their US taxes are minimal.

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Just took a look at CCL Bonds the 10/15/2020 that was paying 1.467 YTM yesterday, is paying 3.790 YTM today.  Price dropping quickly on bonds maturing this year.  Longer term bonds have moved, but not as much for example the 10/01/2023 that was 4.036 YTM yesterday is now 4.323 YTM.

 

Also CCL is now showing S&P Credit Watch Negative.

 

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1 minute ago, npcl said:

Also CCL is now showing S&P Credit Watch Negative.

 

How could their S&P A- rating last!!!  Your crystal ball is as good (or bad) as mine but nonetheless their bonds may go south in a hurry.

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3 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

How could their S&P A- rating last!!!  Your crystal ball is as good (or bad) as mine but nonetheless their bonds may go south in a hurry.

A move of 1.467 to 3.790 on a bond maturing on 10/15/2020  in one day would seem to be a fairly big move.

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1 minute ago, npcl said:

A move of 1.467 to 3.790 on a bond maturing on 10/15/2020  in one day would seem to be a fairly big move.

 

And I expect it go further south.

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51 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

And I expect it go further south.

 

 

Last night at midnight the stock hit $20.50

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BCCRUSINGCOUPLE said:

I think like everything they will bounce back but it will take awhile


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Will go down further.

 

From analyst reports new bookings are down over 35% compared to last year at this time.That does not even take into account all of the canceled cruises, costs of refunds, as well as all of the FCC and OBC.

 

NCLH and RCL have already started tapping revolving lines of credit.

Think of this as a slow motion train wreck that will take months to complete.

 

CNBC had a good segment in the Covid-19 special dealing with the cruise lines.

Edited by npcl

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Will go down further.
 
From analyst reports new bookings are down over 35% compared to last year at this time.That does not even take into account all of the canceled cruises, costs of refunds, as well as all of the FCC and OBC.
 
NCLH and RCL have already started tapping revolving lines of credit.
 
CNBC had a good segment in the Covid-19 special dealing with the cruise lines.

I agree very tough tomes for the cruise lines And the families and the suppliers huge spin off on this


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Already hold shares in the big 3, I'm keeping my $$$ liquid for the short term & watching...

 

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CCL Bonds continue to weaken

 

Just took a look at CCL Bonds the 10/15/2020 that was paying 1.467 YTM two days ago,  paying 3.790 YTM yesterday is now paying above coupon price at 4.278 YTM. 

 

Considering how low treasuries are trading at, this certainly indicates concern.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, npcl said:

CCL Bonds continue to weaken

Just took a look at CCL Bonds the 10/15/2020 that was paying 1.467 YTM two days ago,  paying 3.790 YTM yesterday is now paying above coupon price at 4.278 YTM. 

Considering how low treasuries are trading at, this certainly indicates concern.

 

Their bond ratings may be in junk/speculative category in the near future and Royal is even in worse shape.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-may-cut-junk-143118077.html

Edited by bluesea321

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The United States should not bail the cruise industry out, let the countries that flag them bail them out, if you claim to be an American company and flag your ships in another country to avoid labor laws you are on your own....

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