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Carnival Stock Price Dropping

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7 hours ago, caribill said:

 

If a  cruise was on sale, then many people would book a cruise.

 

After 9/11, lots of people were afraid to cruise.

 

The cruise lines discovered the people who were afraid (for example) at $999, were a lot less afraid at $399.

 

As to the folks here with buy recomendations ... there were plenty of folks with buy recomendations at $60, too.

 

Some of the same posters in that thread and this thread.

 

 

I think there is so much uncertainty now, that there is no need to rush to make a decision.

 

Plenty of time to wait and see what happens with the med summer season.

 

The situation with Concordia was completely different.  It was ... bang! ... one instantaneous event.

Carnival Corp didn't have to worry about another ship sinking in a month.

 

 

Edited by pablo222

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4 minutes ago, pablo222 said:

 

After 9/11, lots of people were afraid to cruise.

 

The cruise lines discovered the people who were afraid (for example) at $999, were a lot less afraid at $399.

 

As to the folks here with buy recomendations ... there were plenty of folks with buy recomendations at $60, too.

 

I think there is so much uncertainty now, that there is no need to rush to make a decision.

 

Plenty of time to wait and see what happens with the med summer season.

 

The situation with Concordia was completely different.  It was ... bang! ... one instantaneous event.

Carnival Corp didn't have to worry about another ship sinking in a month.

 

 

 

 

I agree with all of that. And to add my thoughts on the stock, while I'm sure that cruise lines will exist in some form or another and that we as cruisers need not worry about a supplier, it's not at all clear at this point whether common shareholders will not get squeezed on a reorg of some sort down the road.  These companies have tons of debt and with a material decline in cruisers for a few years, it may not be owned by common shareholders when it's all said and done.  I'm not suggesting that will be the case, but it is certainly a possibility at this point and much more than just remote.

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I still think there is over reaction and panic. Panic is never productive.

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5 hours ago, Thrak said:

I still think there is over reaction and panic. Panic is never productive.

 

I am sure the Diamond Princess passengers would agree with your assessment!!!

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On 2/27/2020 at 1:58 PM, npcl said:

I sold mine last Friday.  First time in 11 years that I have not held CCL.  I expect that I will have the opportunity to buy it at a much lower price.

Did you lose money on your sale?

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On 2/28/2020 at 12:16 PM, Wishing on a star said:

I do think that the two people in a cabin should each be able to get the OBC, if they both have the 100 shares of stock in their name. (200 shares.  Not, for example, husband and wife who jointly own the 100 shares)

 

And, yes, this whole disaster will be a buy opportunity.

I wish we had sold ours earlier.

I do intend to buy again when things begin to settle.

 

Sounds like you might have bought high and sold low and waiting for the price to go up again to buy.

 

Haha. Unfortunately it doesn't matter what you think or what I think. What matters is what Princess thinks 😀

Edited by frugaltravel

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16 hours ago, cruzsnooze said:

Does carnival Corp not have any insurances to rely on for lost revenue or such?

I doubt it. That is called the cost of doing business.

 

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7 minutes ago, frugaltravel said:

I doubt it. That is called the cost of doing business.

 

Most business are insured. Especially one's that can be damaged by an accident or sinking. I'm wondering if Princess is insured. 

Edited by cruzsnooze

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So I'm thinking of taking the stock plunge if the price continues to drop into the 20's.  What's everyone's experience with different online brokers?  Or are they all about the same?  Currently I only have a 401(k) which doesn't allow for individual stock purchases so I'd need to use an outside broker.

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39 minutes ago, cruzsnooze said:

Most business are insured. Especially one's that can be damaged by an accident or sinking. I'm wondering if Princess is insured. 

Insured yes. But I wonder about insurance for loss of revenue.

 

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1 hour ago, SDWalt said:

So I'm thinking of taking the stock plunge if the price continues to drop into the 20's.  What's everyone's experience with different online brokers?  Or are they all about the same?  Currently I only have a 401(k) which doesn't allow for individual stock purchases so I'd need to use an outside broker.


Perhaps you want to consider opening an IRA? You’ll have the ability to choose individual stocks while also putting away a bit of cash for retirement. Also, depending upon your level of income, you may receive a tax benefit for the amount contributed to account ($6000 max for a regular IRA of I am not mistaken). 


https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/081414/can-i-deduct-my-individual-retirement-account-ira-contribution-my-tax-return.asp

 

 Good luck!

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1 hour ago, SDWalt said:

So I'm thinking of taking the stock plunge if the price continues to drop into the 20's.  What's everyone's experience with different online brokers?  Or are they all about the same?  Currently I only have a 401(k) which doesn't allow for individual stock purchases so I'd need to use an outside broker.

Waiting for the twenties, it might work.
 

Many no trading fee online brokers available for a taxable account. 

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Once you buy the stock, what is the procedure for notifying them?

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30 minutes ago, oskidunker said:

Once you buy the stock, what is the procedure for notifying them?

From the Carnival Corp Announcement:

 

"The benefit is applicable on sailings through July 31, 2021 aboard the brands listed below. Certain restrictions apply. Applications to receive these benefits should be made at least three weeks prior to cruise departure date.

 

This benefit is available to shareholders holding a minimum of 100 shares of Carnival Corporation or Carnival plc. Employees, travel agents cruising at travel agent rates, tour conductors or anyone cruising on a reduced-rate or complimentary basis are excluded from this offer. This benefit is not transferable, cannot be exchanged for cash and, cannot be used for casino credits/charges and gratuities charged to your onboard account. Only one onboard credit per shareholder occupied stateroom. Reservations must be made by February 29, 2021.

 

Please provide by fax or by mail your complete legal name, reservation/booking number, ship and sailing date, along with proof of ownership of Carnival Corporation or Carnival plc shares (for example, photocopy of shareholder proxy card, a dividend tax voucher or a current brokerage or nominee statement with your brokerage account number blacked out) no later than 3 weeks prior to your sail date to your travel agent or to the cruise line "

 

For the full details and addresses see:

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

 

 

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On 2/29/2020 at 2:39 AM, Thrak said:

I still think there is over reaction and panic. Panic is never productive.

True enough.  My broker agrees with me that this is the time to increase your holding in CCL stock.  Always wise to invest in what you use and this stock will continue to be a good long term growth opportunity and still provide a good dividend and SHB.

I just purchased another 100 shares because I feel I'm not just a stockholder but a stakeholder with this company.  It doesn't buy me any more SHB but it confirms my commitment to CCL.

 

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I never bought shares to make money.

I could care less how the stock performs.

Luckily it was $14 when I purchased.

OBC was the end game.

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When it gets close to the teens even I might consider a few more shares. 😄

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If it hits low 20s I'd pick up some to sell off once recovered. Only interested in holding 100 for OBC

 

In at 54.95 - 12.50 OBC / Dividends per share to date. Far from breakeven but B2B & 2 TAs booked

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I’m hoping with my dividend reinvestment option I’ll get a few extra shares than normal later this month. The dividends and OBC far outweigh a panic sell.

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I would wait.  Consider this: what possible set of events could cause the stock to jump CONSIDERABLY  in a short amount of time?  Probably none.  A vaccine, cruise ships returning to Asia etc.  Would begin result in a small immediate bump and if all goes well a slow climb back.  OTOH are there events that could drive the price considerably lower?  Absolutely —- needing to pull out of the med, under sold/heavily discounted cruises, needing to remain out of Asia for a prolonged period, another “diamond “  ETC.

 

My thought is wait until positive news about CCL, cruise lines, tourism begins.  Granted by waiting until after the good news I will be paying a few dollars more than the bottom, but I reduce my risk of it continuing to decline after I buy.  

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I picked up 100 shares today, cost me roughly $3,200.  At that rate, my minimum annual return will be 7.8%, as my wife and I will take at least one 14-day cruise per year.  Further, with a $2.00 dividend per year (paid @ 50 cents quarterly per share), the dividends will pay $200 per year.  In total, at a minimum, my overall annual return on investment will be 14%, perhaps higher if we cruise more.

 

All of the above is only possible so long as the cruise line continues to offer the shareholder OBC benefit and continues paying dividends at the same rate.  Good enough return for me :).  

 

Cheers 

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Short history of CCL stock:

03/03/2020

$31.83

 

     

03/02/2020

$33.06

 

     

02/28/2020

$33.46

 

     

02/27/2020

$31.85

 

     

02/26/2020

$33.14

 

     

02/25/2020

$35.84

 

     

02/24/2020

$37.76

 

     

02/21/2020

$41.69

 

Will the stock go lower, maybe.  Will the stock go higher, most likely.  Unless you watch the stock hourly, getting the lowest price is a crap shoot.  

 

52 week high: 3/4/2019 $57.70

52 week low: 2/27/2020 $30.19

Closing price today: $31.83

 

Right now the stock is at a historical low for the last many years.  The stock pays $0.50 dividend/quarter for a 6.05% return on today's price.  CCL will pay the $.50 dividend on 3/13 to all who owned stock on 2/20.  How much do you get from a savings account or other investment.  

 

Carnival owns 9 cruise line with over 100 ships on the seas.   Revenue last year was $20.83 billion with a net income of $2.99 billion.  They are not going broke any time soon. 

 

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5 hours ago, satxdiver said:

Right now the stock is at a historical low for the last many years.  The stock pays $0.50 dividend/quarter for a 6.05% return on today's price.  CCL will pay the $.50 dividend on 3/13 to all who owned stock on 2/20.  How much do you get from a savings account or other investment.  

 

Carnival owns 9 cruise line with over 100 ships on the seas.   Revenue last year was $20.83 billion with a net income of $2.99 billion.  They are not going broke any time soon. 

 

 

Back when the stock was over $60, you were telling us how great it was:

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2586125-ccl-shareholders-stock/?do=findComment&comment=55762480

 

Right now, there is a lot of unknown.

 

Plenty of time to wait and see, before jumping in and losing money.

 

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5 hours ago, pablo222 said:

 

Back when the stock was over $60, you were telling us how great it was:

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2586125-ccl-shareholders-stock/?do=findComment&comment=55762480

 

Right now, there is a lot of unknown.

 

Plenty of time to wait and see, before jumping in and losing money.

 

 

I bought the stock for $17/share in 2009.  I think therefore that you should wait until the stock goes down into the teens before buying it.  Last year we received $1000 OBC and $200.  I have been crying all the way to the bank over my "loss".  Good luck.

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