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Daniel A

Carnival Stock Price Dropping

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13 minutes ago, satxdiver said:

 

I think therefore that you should wait until the stock goes down into the teens before buying it.  

Doubt that will happen.

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It's down to 31.02 (31.16 as I was writing the rest of this post) at the moment. It's certainly been hovering the past couple days and only dropping minute amounts. Unfortunately, as others have pointed out, given the fact that we are not at the end of this but somewhere in the middle or who knows, maybe even just at the beginning, there's a lot more than can cause the stock to continue to drop than there is that will cause it to immediately climb.

 

I'm not about to advise anyone since I'm not a financial expert, but my personal stance is to wait and watch over the next few weeks and see how it pans out. If the stock starts climbing, that may be when I finally grab my 100 shares, I'll miss out maybe a couple bucks on the absolute lowest price, but I'd rather give up a few potential dollars than jump in and lose a bunch of real ones.

 

The arising news of the Grand Princess is one such thing that may cause another shift in price. Or, who knows maybe the movement that was going to happen from such events already has happened. Or maybe another Diamond Princess situation will tank it even more. Nobody can really say, it does seem wise to me to wait though. It's a lot easier for a stock to drop in this situation than it is for it to suddenly rebound at a higher rate than one would expect.

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One strategy is to cost average....for example buy $500 worth of shares a week for  the next month (or once a month for next year or whatever) ..pick a day...every wed or whatever and stick to it....if price goes down you get more shares for your $500...if price goes up u get less shares....trying to "time the market" to wait to buy at rock bottom price ?  Good luck with that....anyone who can consistently time the market has a crystal ball that very few possess.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, satxdiver said:

I bought the stock for $17/share in 2009.

 

So what?   What do you think that has to do with whether or not to purchase CCL today?

 

You told us how great it was when the stock price was $60+

The people who listened to you better book quite a few cruises to get enough OBC to cover their losses

from your advice.

 

 

 

Edited by pablo222

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, satxdiver said:

 

 

Carnival owns 9 cruise line with over 100 ships on the seas.   Revenue last year was $20.83 billion with a net income of $2.99 billion.  They are not going broke any time soon. 

 

Too big to fail....Just like Eastern Airlines, TWA, Enron, Lehman Brothers,  Kodak, Sears, PG&E ......

 

Also the thing that concerns me about CCL is not revenue nor net income but cash flow.  They are highly leveraged with significant short term liabilities and very little cash or short term assets.  Despite their size they are not in a good position to weather even a short term dip in income.  

 

  

Edited by ed01106

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5 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Too big to fail....Just like Eastern Airlines, TWA, Enron, Lehman Brothers,  Kodak, Sears, PG&E ......

Better cancel all your cruises before it too late.

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15 hours ago, satxdiver said:

Short history of CCL stock:

03/03/2020

$31.83

 

     

03/02/2020

$33.06

 

     

02/28/2020

$33.46

 

     

02/27/2020

$31.85

 

     

02/26/2020

$33.14

 

     

02/25/2020

$35.84

 

     

02/24/2020

$37.76

 

     

02/21/2020

$41.69

 

Will the stock go lower, maybe.  Will the stock go higher, most likely.  Unless you watch the stock hourly, getting the lowest price is a crap shoot.  

 

52 week high: 3/4/2019 $57.70

52 week low: 2/27/2020 $30.19

Closing price today: $31.83

 

Right now the stock is at a historical low for the last many years.  The stock pays $0.50 dividend/quarter for a 6.05% return on today's price.  CCL will pay the $.50 dividend on 3/13 to all who owned stock on 2/20.  How much do you get from a savings account or other investment.  

 

Carnival owns 9 cruise line with over 100 ships on the seas.   Revenue last year was $20.83 billion with a net income of $2.99 billion.  They are not going broke any time soon. 

 

from the last CCL 10k filing.  debt 9 billion, including over 4 billion in fares paid, for cruises not yet taken. Cash or equivalent on hand 550 million.

 

One of the main reasons they are not being free with refunds.

 

Cruise line need a steady business. It would not take much of a stoppage to put them dramatically underwater. If this continues to worsen the cruiselines will need to turn to lines of credit in the multibillion range pretty quickly.

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1 minute ago, npcl said:

to put them dramatically underwater

 very punny....

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6 minutes ago, Colo Cruiser said:

Huh?

Ships. Underwater.  Get it ?  That is called a pun

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, npcl said:

from the last CCL 10k filing.  debt 9 billion, including over 4 billion in fares paid, for cruises not yet taken. Cash or equivalent on hand 550 million.

 

One of the main reasons they are not being free with refunds.

 

Cruise line need a steady business. It would not take much of a stoppage to put them dramatically underwater. If this continues to worsen the cruiselines will need to turn to lines of credit in the multibillion range pretty quickly.

$29.29 now for CCL NYSE

 

Worth buying or not?

 

maybe depends on the news in the next day or two

Edited by Griller

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2 minutes ago, Griller said:

$29.64 now for CCL NYSE

 

Worth buying or not?

 

maybe depends on the news in the next day or two

If another ship (especially Princess) comes down with this virus the bottom will fall of the cruise industry market for a while. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Griller said:

$29.64 now for CCL NYSE

 

Worth buying or not?

 

maybe depends on the news in the next day or two

I always said if it goes below $30 I would buy...now not so sure.....

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7 minutes ago, MissP22 said:

If another ship (especially Princess) comes down with this virus the bottom will fall of the cruise industry market for a while. 

 

That could be a Grand problem for Princess.  

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1 minute ago, ed01106 said:

That could be a Grand problem for Princess.  

Could be a Golden buying opportunity but I don't think it will turn around quickly this time

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I can't say that it doesn't concern me to some degree since we're leaving on the Crown shortly but we're still preparing for what might turn into a quarantine.

I still don't see any discounted cruise deals appearing on the horizon, other than the stock.

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15 minutes ago, Griller said:

Could be a Golden buying opportunity but I don't think it will turn around quickly this time

 

Good one!

 

The yields are crazy good now, but if you look at their growth take pause, that will all change next three quarters as the ships will sale mostly underloaded and heavily discounted yet fixed costs will be the same.  But it will fall more, for sure!

 

If you are a longterm investor this won't matter, people love their vacations, and even I will do a buffet on the cruise, when the time is right.

 

BA on the other hand really is in trouble, probably will need a bailout like the big three automakers for strategic reasons and could fall and fall and fall, till bailout won't touch that stock.

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3 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Good one!

 

The yields are crazy good now, but if you look at their growth take pause, that will all change next three quarters as the ships will sale mostly underloaded and heavily discounted yet fixed costs will be the same.  But it will fall more, for sure!

 

If you are a longterm investor this won't matter, people love their vacations, and even I will do a buffet on the cruise, when the time is right.

 

BA on the other hand really is in trouble, probably will need a bailout like the big three automakers for strategic reasons and could fall and fall and fall, till bailout won't touch that stock.

BA do you mean British Airways which seems to be owned mostly by IAG - and Qatar bought a big stake in it recently which propped up the price a bit.

I wouldn't own their stock, and saw that FlyBE just collapsed for good.

 

Unfortunately I have a lot of CCL which I bought at $58.  very very painful.

 

Its $29.22 now

 

I think I Royal ly shafted myself with that.

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1 minute ago, Griller said:

BA do you mean British Airways which seems to be owned mostly by IAG - and Qatar bought a big stake in it recently which propped up the price a bit.

I wouldn't own their stock, and saw that FlyBE just collapsed for good.

 

Unfortunately I have a lot of CCL which I bought at $58.  very very painful.

 

Its $29.22 now

 

I think I Royal ly shafted myself with that.

 

BA is Boeing 52 week high was 444.50

currently 269 and going down with serious issues on Max and Dreamliner and space program and and and 

 

Carnival just got caught in a generational storm, kind of like the airlines when 911 hit, it will most certainly bounce back as if they manage well people love their leisure and we'll all get back to crusing and cash flow and business model is solid, they need to fix the disease transmission preception just like Chipotle needed to fix their image and came back.  

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28 minutes ago, Griller said:

Could be a Golden buying opportunity but I don't think it will turn around quickly this time

I think you missed my reference to the fact Princess has another ship being denied disembarking.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

I think you missed my reference to the fact Princess has another ship being denied disembarking.

I know Grand Princess is at SF. A number of possible virus cases on board. 

And Caribbean P has Noro AGAIN

And Crown has a generator out

And Caribbean has an engine inoperative

And Sun passengers got attacked by locals in a port

 

No good news with Princess

I am booked on SKy in a month IF its not cancelled - which I would be happy with.

Edited by Griller

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3 minutes ago, Griller said:

I know Grand Princess is at SF. A number of possible virus cases on board. 

And Caribbean P has Noro AGAIN

And Crown has a generator out

And Caribbean has an engine inoperative

 

No good news with Princess

I am booked on SKy in a month IF its not cancelled - which I would be happy with.

Diamond is out indefinitely.

Sapphire has a bunch of canceled cruises.

Majestic has a bunch of canceled cruises. 

 

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7 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

BA is Boeing 52 week high was 444.50

currently 269 and going down with serious issues on Max and Dreamliner and space program and and and 

 

Carnival just got caught in a generational storm, kind of like the airlines when 911 hit, it will most certainly bounce back as if they manage well people love their leisure and we'll all get back to crusing and cash flow and business model is solid, they need to fix the disease transmission preception just like Chipotle needed to fix their image and came back.  

One trouble with Princess is that they don't listen to passengers about things they are doing wrong with the business.

Sometimes passengers have much more experience of the wider cruise industry and other ships and procedures than a high level Princess employee.

Yet when you see something that's a potential serious problem no one wants to listen. And then it happens. 

Every time I have tried to query something recently I have been told its not their responsibility.

The Officers have their area of responsibility and if the problem doesn't fit in perfectly they shrug and say they can't do anything about it, or that head office make the decisions and again they cant do anything about it.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Diamond is out indefinitely.

Sapphire has a bunch of canceled cruises.

Majestic has a bunch of canceled cruises. 

 

Going into China - and  selling a large proportion of cabins in the mainland Chinese market for other areas cruises did nothing to improve the cruise experience for other passengers and also it now becomes obvious the long term profitability.

 

CCL $28.79 now

 

make that $28.62

Edited by Griller

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