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Daniel A

Carnival Stock Price Dropping

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Currently CCL stock is in complete free fall, its too early to buy, as no one knows how low it can get.  I wouldnt buy unless the price gets over $ 31.75 and shows that it can stay above that price.

ccl stock.JPG

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18 minutes ago, waterbabyfish said:

Last time it got this low was the Costa Concorda sinking. That's when I bought.

That time I seem to remember the stock was recovering and back at a decent price within 3 days

Not going to happen this time

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Griller said:

Going into China - and  selling a large proportion of cabins in the mainland Chinese market for other areas cruises did nothing to improve the cruise experience for other passengers and also it now becomes obvious the long term profitability.

 

CCL $28.79 now

 

make that $28.62

I bailed out at $39 just after the Ex-Div Date. Already got my Stock OBC for an August Cruise,  so I can sit on the sidelines for a while before I jump back in. Also dumped my RCL at the same time and since there are not upcoming cruises on their lines, no need to hold it either. Been a long time holder of RCL/CCL, but have bought and sold a few times over the years as the market peaks and ebbs. 

 

The Airlines and the Travel Industry in general are going to take a big hit over the next few months, as I don't think we've seen the bottom on this outbreak. Most reports I read agree that we are teetering on the edge of a pandemic.  

Edited by drowelf

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, drowelf said:

Deleted

Not sure how I quoted my own post. 

Edited by drowelf

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The market has jitters since the COVID19 outbreak was first announced.  Nobody knows of course when the market will stabilize.  The market goes up one day and retreats the next.  CA keeping the Grand setting off the coast of SF and Grand Cayman as well as Jamaica denying ships has perhaps hit CCL again as the stock is at $28.59 while RCL is at $67.04 this morning.  For most of last week both were sitting around $33 and $78 more or less.  I imagine there is more to come in volatility.  

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It's hard to beat the Carnival yield, especially now, at over 7%. With 10-year Treasuries below 1% now, it's a way for retirees to get some additional income, if you're willing to hold onto the shares and Carnival doesn't cut the dividend. If you factor in the shareholder credit, it makes it even more comforting to hold onto the stock, at least for those like me who only have 100 shares.

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Is the CCL dividend tied to earnings? That may not pay out over the next year or so if they're going to take a bit hit. Over the long haul though, it's a good target. I don't think it's done falling yet though which is why I'm waiting and watching.

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2 minutes ago, rj42 said:

It's hard to beat the Carnival yield, especially now, at over 7%. With 10-year Treasuries below 1% now, it's a way for retirees to get some additional income, if you're willing to hold onto the shares and Carnival doesn't cut the dividend. If you factor in the shareholder credit, it makes it even more comforting to hold onto the stock, at least for those like me who only have 100 shares.

Thats my worry not so much if they cut or suspend the dividend but IF its a big IF and looks a distinct possibility.

 

Its happened before when CCL had the opportunity of repaying bonds or the  interest rate was going to go up a lot - so they suspended the dividend and used the money to buy back the bonds.

 

It was in the shareholders interest long-term.

 

Generally what keeps me happy is that Michael Arison owns a huge chunk of stock so whatever happens to us also happens to him - bigtime.

 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Corazu said:

Is the CCL dividend tied to earnings? That may not pay out over the next year or so if they're going to take a bit hit. Over the long haul though, it's a good target. I don't think it's done falling yet though which is why I'm waiting and watching.

I think CCL pays out about half of net earnings as dividends, it has varied before with earnings fluctuation.

The other half gets reinvested in new ships etc.

Edited by Griller

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1 minute ago, Corazu said:

Is the CCL dividend tied to earnings? That may not pay out over the next year or so if they're going to take a bit hit. Over the long haul though, it's a good target. I don't think it's done falling yet though which is why I'm waiting and watching.

As with all stock the dividend is certainly tied to earnings.  One major alert to a company in serious trouble is when they cut dividends which many times results in a selloff driving down the price of their stock even more.  While many companies with earnings problems may look at cutting dividends, this weighs heavily on their decision.  I don't expect CCL to cut dividends in the near future with this in mind.   There is no guarantee they won't, but very highly unlikely.

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5 minutes ago, Griller said:

 

Its happened before when CCL had the opportunity of repaying bonds or the  interest rate was going to go up a lot - so they suspended the dividend and used the money to buy back the bonds.

 

 

I did not remember this happening.  Do you remember when CCL suspended the dividend?

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14 minutes ago, satxdiver said:

 

I did not remember this happening.  Do you remember when CCL suspended the dividend?

31st October 2008

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From Market Watch:

 

Shares of cruise operators are suffering double-digit percentage selloffs Thursday to multi-year lows, as investor fears of the coronavirus outbreak intensify. Shares Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, -17.185% tumbled 16.6%, putting them on track for the lowest close since Sept. 19, 2016, and for the biggest one-day drop since Jan. 30, 2009. Carnival Corp.'s stock CCL, -14.140% dove 12.7%, and is headed for the biggest one-day drop since April 27, 2009 and for the lowest close since Aug. 17, 2009. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s shares NCLH, -14.879% dove 13.2%, which would be the biggest one-day decline since the company went public in January 2013, as they head toward the lowest close since June 24, 2013. Of the three, J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff said Royal Caribbean, rated overweight, was the "best positioned" to weather the ongoing slowdown from a growth perspective, and subsequently "the best positioned to outperform coming out on the other side." Greff also rates Norwegian overweight, saying he sees "value for patient investors," while he rates Carnival neutral given his belief the company will "underperform faster growth peers coming out of this event." The cruise stocks' selloff comes amid a broad stock market selloff, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -3.364% is shedding 791 points, or 2.9%.

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Posted (edited)

I have  put options on CCL.  Stock drops 15% and going lower to day.   Was told CCL may suspend dividends.  Discontinue OBC.

Buy order at $11.

Edited by Justalone

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3 minutes ago, Justalone said:

I have  put options on CCL.  Stock drops 15% today.  Bid $27.69.  Was told CCL may suspend dividends.

You'll have it by 2 PM. 

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16 minutes ago, Griller said:

31st October 2008

 

It took a lot of digging but I found it.  CCL did not pay a dividend in 2009.  They restarted paying dividends in 1Q 2010 and have continued since.  I first bought the stock in 2009 but forgot about the dividend suspension.  Thanks for the info.

 

https://www.dividendchannel.com/symbol/ccl/

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40 minutes ago, satxdiver said:

One major alert to a company in serious trouble is when they cut dividends which many times results in a selloff driving down the price of their stock even more.  While many companies with earnings problems may look at cutting dividends, this weighs heavily on their decision. 

 

I once worked for a company that did a major cut to its dividend when financial pressures occurred.

 

The stock price took a nosedive.

 

The CEO later said cutting the dividend was the worst decision he ever made.

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1 hour ago, Justalone said:

I have  put options on CCL.  Stock drops 15% today.  Bid $27.69.  Was told CCL may suspend dividends.  Discontinue OBC.

Buy order at $11.

I expect them to drop dividends, but there is no reason for them to drop OBC. Low cost marketing program. Would not be surprised if they increase OBC.

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41 minutes ago, Justalone said:

I have  put options on CCL.  Stock drops 15% and going lower to day.   Was told CCL may suspend dividends.  Discontinue OBC.

Buy order at $11.

 

Now that is optimistic thinking.  Hopefully we will not get to that point but maybe we will. 

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44 minutes ago, Justalone said:

I have  put options on CCL.  Stock drops 15% and going lower to day.   Was told CCL may suspend dividends.  Discontinue OBC.

Buy order at $11.

So OBC is going away.      Who told you that?   I call Bunk.

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The March 2020 dividend has been declared and WILL therefore be paid.

Future dividends more likely may be reduced.

Shareholder OBC will IMO stay.

Such a shame this year’s AGM is in the US and not the UK. I would have definitely attended it this month.

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7 minutes ago, Colo Cruiser said:

So OBC is going away.      Who told you that?   I call Bunk.

 

Well...there just may be something to this.  I just came from my broker this morning (where I bought 100 shares at 29.11) and was looking for the current form to download.  Nowhere to be found on the CarnivalCorp site.  Of course I may just be blind and overlooking it.  There are a couple of old forms that Google offers up from non-Carnival sources that have old dates embedded.  Can anybody point me to the correct form?

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2 minutes ago, Rick&Jeannie said:

 

Well...there just may be something to this.  I just came from my broker this morning (where I bought 100 shares at 29.11) and was looking for the current form to download.  Nowhere to be found on the CarnivalCorp site.  Of course I may just be blind and overlooking it.  There are a couple of old forms that Google offers up from non-Carnival sources that have old dates embedded.  Can anybody point me to the correct form?

They still have the benefit chart showing the different cruise length benefits but I can't find the form now.

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5 minutes ago, Rick&Jeannie said:

 

Well...there just may be something to this.  I just came from my broker this morning (where I bought 100 shares at 29.11) and was looking for the current form to download.  Nowhere to be found on the CarnivalCorp site.  Of course I may just be blind and overlooking it.  There are a couple of old forms that Google offers up from non-Carnival sources that have old dates embedded.  Can anybody point me to the correct form?

So you just bought the shares today and you are already declaring the OBC is going because you cant find the form?

Seriously? SMH

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I'm not sure there is a current form. On the website they just tell you to write a cover letter with your legal name, sailing date, reservation number, and ship and include your proof of stocks. Either snail mail or fax. We did it at the beginning of last week and had it in our account within a couple of hours.

 

I agree that there's no reason to get rid of the OBC. That doesn't cost them much and if you're going to use it, you have to be on a ship spending other money. The dividend is a different story.

 

We bought it for our daughter less than two weeks ago at $42+. We also have puts at $30, with premium bringing it to a strike price of about 27. Maybe owning $75K more of CCL by tomorrow. :( When we added that put, it would have to drop 30% to be assigned. Didn't take long.

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