Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[mcrcruiser]

30 minutes ago, Stateroom_Sailor said:

We sold ours at $45.  If another ship or two get quarantined, or the cruise industry in general gets postponed, these stocks will get crushed.  It took a few years for the general public to forget the Carnival Triumph's "poop cruise".

Smart  move . you can always buy  back in for the share holder benefit  ,that is if after the dust settles & the benefit is still offered 

[ed01106]

27 minutes ago, Griller said:

 

The world is not going to stop cruising forever because of this

I agree with that. 

Problem for the cruise lines, however, is they are heavily leveraged.  If the world stops cruising for a few months they will go bankrupt.    

[Stateroom_Sailor]

21 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Smart  move . you can always buy  back in for the share holder benefit  ,that is if after the dust settles & the benefit is still offered 

 

Absolutely.  Even though we are leaning towards Carnival brands these days, I might pick up 100 shares from some the other lines as well. 

[CruiseVA]

I already have RCL & CCL, looking at NCL now in case we sail on one of their lines.  IHG is a deal, and, you get access to deals on hotel rooms, I'm just not sure how many shares you need.

[Griller]

1 minute ago, Stateroom_Sailor said:

 

Absolutely.  Even though we are leaning towards Carnival brands these days, I might pick up 100 shares from some the other lines as well. 

NCL don't pay a dividend and to get $250 OBC it has to be 15 days cruise, and they don't have too many of those

Royal Caribbean/Celebrity only let you have one OBC generally so if you have stock you may lose other OBC but have been paying 70c dividend.

I don't have either, and wish I didn't have Carnival right now...…………………………..

[blloydtbird]

Purchased 100 shares on Monday, faxed the required information over to Princess at 2:32pm today, $250 OBC now posted to my account. I’m good with it. 

[Griller]

14 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

I agree with that. 

Problem for the cruise lines, however, is they are heavily leveraged.  If the world stops cruising for a few months they will go bankrupt.    

Some more likely than others I think - …. I hope Carnival is least likely

 

I think its big enough to survive., less leveraged

 

Like if you owe the bank a million dollars and you cant pay then you're in trouble

But if you owe them 10 billion dollars and you cant pay then the bank is in trouble

[ed01106]

1 minute ago, Griller said:

Some more likely than others I think - …. I hope Carnival is least likely

 

I think its big enough to survive., less leveraged

 

Like if you owe the bank a million dollars and you cant pay then you're in trouble

But if you owe them 10 billion dollars and you cant pay then the bank is in trouble

Carnival is hugely leveraged.  All three of the big lines have horrible liquidity profiles.  

[Griller]

Carnival Debt/Equity ratio   0 .38

NCL                                         1.04

Royal Caribbean                    0.74

 

Carnival's debt is regarded as "conservatively managed"

 

Figures are from end of 2019

 

Low numbers good - higher numbers bad.

Edited March 5 by Griller

[drowelf]

4 hours ago, Rick&Jeannie said:

They still have the benefit chart showing the different cruise length benefits but I can't find the form now.

I don't think that there is a form anymore. I just craft a Fax Cover that contains all the information they request (Name, Booking Number, Ship, Sailing Date, etc.). That along with my redacted brokerage statement then get faxed to the listed number. 

[drowelf]

1 hour ago, Griller said:

 

The world is not going to stop cruising forever because of this

Quite true, but it might be a while before the stock rebounds back to its level of just 3 months ago. I bailed at $39ish and will probably pick it and RCL back up once I think its bounced off its bottom. Not looking to buy at the exact bottom, but will probably pick it up once its back on an upward path. 

[ed01106]

21 minutes ago, Griller said:

Carnival Debt/Equity ratio   0 .38

NCL                                         1.04

Royal Caribbean                    0.74

 

Carnival's debt is regarded as "conservatively managed"

 

Figures are from end of 2019

 

Low numbers good - higher numbers bad.

That has nothing to do with liquidity, which is what CCL needs to worry about at the moment.  The problem for CCL is short term liabilities compared to cash.  

[blondee419]

Is there always a cut off date in that letter?  according to the link, https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

"Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021."

[blloydtbird]

10 minutes ago, blondee419 said:

Is there always a cut off date in that letter?  according to the link, https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

"Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021."

Yes. 

[ed01106]

19 minutes ago, blondee419 said:

Is there always a cut off date in that letter?  according to the link, https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

"Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021."

Yes, but every year they reissue the letter with new dates. 

[Griller]

24 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

That has nothing to do with liquidity, which is what CCL needs to worry about at the moment.  The problem for CCL is short term liabilities compared to cash.  

Carnival have been buying back stock over the past few years and could raise cash by selling again, however they would make a horrible loss on the deal, and would have to carefully time any sales to not depress the price further.

 

Until recently the value of the company taking everything into consideration was reckoned to be about $65 per share.

[drowelf]

28 minutes ago, blondee419 said:

Is there always a cut off date in that letter?  according to the link, https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/50351a91-4dc0-4f6b-bfec-684647e6129f

"Reservations must be made by February 28, 2021."

Thats standard boilerplate for the benefit. It must be renewed each year, so it always has a cut-off date associated with the renewal. 

[blondee419]

12 minutes ago, drowelf said:

Thats standard boilerplate for the benefit. It must be renewed each year, so it always has a cut-off date associated with the renewal. 

Thanks! 
In light of someone else floating the idea they'd be doing away with the benefit, I was just curious if that was standard or something new.  

~ A Druid Dwarf

Edited March 6 by blondee419

[oskidunker]

This has been going on for many years. I would think they would want people to buy the stock so I doubt they cancel the benefit.

[Thrak]

1 hour ago, CruiseVA said:

IHG is a deal, and, you get access to deals on hotel rooms, I'm just not sure how many shares you need.

 

A Google search turned up this very old thread which indicates that you must have a physical share of stock in your own name and that the discount is hit or miss and not much - perhaps 5%.

 

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/intercontinental-hotels-ihg-rewards-club-intercontinental-ambassador/1210755-ihg-shareholder-discount-3.html

[oskidunker]

My guess is it goes under 20  Will wait a week or two. This virus wont get better. Can only get worse. another ship or two and the stock will collapse.

[resistk]

5 minutes ago, oskidunker said:

My guess is it goes under 20  Will wait a week or two. This virus wont get better. Can only get worse. another ship or two and the stock will collapse.

 

Wait till the lawsuits start up.  They will be in receivership and the shareholders take the hit.

[jp2746]

How many shares do you have to buy in carnival to get OBC?

[vivian02]

Had my chance to buy Carnival two years ago at $45 and did not go through with the purchase at the time. I saw it start to stabilize two days ago going back up to above $32. I knew today would get crazy and pressed the buy button at $28.45. I know there is a risk for the dividend to get cut but figured this just might be the time to help stabilize the stock. When everyone one thinks their stock is going to zero it might be a good time to buy. We'll see what tomorrow brings. This virus won't go on forever.  

[drowelf]

7 minutes ago, jp2746 said:

How many shares do you have to buy in carnival to get OBC?

100 shares is all you need. The amount you get is based on the length of the cruise. 

 

< 7 nets $50 

7 - 13 nets $100

14+ nets $250

 

Only 1 person per cabin (or maybe booking) can claim the Stockholder OBC.