Prices holding steady. What will happen tomorrow?

[JamieLogical]

I am sailing on the 3/15 and 3/22 sailings of the Bliss. I track pricing every day and so far, prices have not budged since the announcement of the new cancellation on Friday. Looks to me like they have "locked" pricing at least until the new policy kicks in tomorrow. After tomorrow, when people begin cancelling their bookings in droves, do you think pricing for the March and April sailings will plummet? What have you seen with the pricing on your upcoming sailings over the past few days? 

[brovol]

Ive been wondering the same thing.  Will the cruise lines adjust their online sales window to reflect reopened cabins in each category, and adjust rates for those cabins at fire-sale pricing?  We are sailing on the Getaway 3/29, and I have been keeping my eyes out for cruises that same week, regardless of the line, considering bumping my Getaway cruise in favor of something else at half the price, then using the NCL credit next year.  Fortunately, when I bought my plane tickets I got them with one free flight change.

 

My wife thinks that since we have everything booked on the Getaway, and everything has been squared away (we got a cabin upgrade last week after calling our agent and whining), we should just stick with what we have.  Actually I am really hoping that the ship is less crowded because of this, but I think the cruise lines will find a way to fill those ships.  Too many people rely on those ships being full.

Edited March 9, 2020 by brovol

[luv2kroooz]

Yes, prices have been locked for my cruise actually since they announced last week's sale where they started including all free at sea offers with inside cabins and $100 obc. I had originally booked one free at sea offer. Upon the announcement of the take all "sale" plus OBC, the price of my cabin went up by $140 and hasn't moved.

 

I'd expect any movement this week to be driven by supply and demand and in consideration of how close or far away from sailing date.

 

I'm also wondering if there is a point at which it doesn't make sense for NCL to operate a revenue cruise? Meaning....do they need a minimum passenger count for it to make sense to operate the sailing?

[GA Dave]

You could also start seeing them cancel cruises completely, if the number of cancellations drives the revenue well below the costs to run the ship.  The airlines do this all the time when there are too few passengers to cover the cost of running an aircraft to a destination and back to the hub.  During the last recession, this happened to me several times, with them booking me on the next flight out.

[kpark895]

59 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

I am sailing on the 3/15 and 3/22 sailings of the Bliss. I track pricing every day and so far, prices have not budged since the announcement of the new cancellation on Friday. Looks to me like they have "locked" pricing at least until the new policy kicks in tomorrow. After tomorrow, when people begin cancelling their bookings in droves, do you think pricing for the March and April sailings will plummet? What have you seen with the pricing on your upcoming sailings over the past few days? 

 

Since I'm on the same 3/22 sailing, I have been doing the same, and as well as prices remaining constant, I haven't really seen a lot of new cabins opening up for booking.  I, too, wonder what will happen today after the CDC announcement and all of the media coverage of the cruise ship dilemma.

[JamieLogical]

6 minutes ago, kpark895 said:

 

Since I'm on the same 3/22 sailing, I have been doing the same, and as well as prices remaining constant, I haven't really seen a lot of new cabins opening up for booking.  I, too, wonder what will happen today after the CDC announcement and all of the media coverage of the cruise ship dilemma.

 

Well, since NCL isn't allowing people to cancel until tomorrow, I don't think we'll see new cabins open up until then unless people are using their own CFAR insurance.

[Laszlo]

12 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Well, since NCL isn't allowing people to cancel until tomorrow, I don't think we'll see new cabins open up until then unless people are using their own CFAR insurance.

 

Good luck Jamie!

[spanishguy1970]

1 hour ago, JamieLogical said:

I am sailing on the 3/15 and 3/22 sailings of the Bliss. I track pricing every day and so far, prices have not budged since the announcement of the new cancellation on Friday. Looks to me like they have "locked" pricing at least until the new policy kicks in tomorrow. After tomorrow, when people begin cancelling their bookings in droves, do you think pricing for the March and April sailings will plummet? What have you seen with the pricing on your upcoming sailings over the past few days? 

we are on the Bliss on April 19 for 21 days, and the prices have come down some. $549 for an inside guarantee stateroom. We paid 986 for inside guarantee..Balcony and above the prices are pretty much steady.

[nomad098]

18 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Well, since NCL isn't allowing people to cancel until tomorrow, I don't think we'll see new cabins open up until then unless people are using their own CFAR insurance.

 

We travel 5th April and have noticed a few cabins open up in categories that were previously sold out.

This could be upgrades but tomorrow will tell 

[brovol]

19 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Well, since NCL isn't allowing people to cancel until tomorrow, I don't think we'll see new cabins open up until then unless people are using their own CFAR insurance.

I haven't been seeing them open with other cruise lines either though, which surprises me a bit.

[roger001]

In the next few weeks, depending on where this heading, there might not be any cruises to even book.  I see a good possibility of cruises to just shut down for a while.  

[JamieLogical]

19 minutes ago, brovol said:

I haven't been seeing them open with other cruise lines either though, which surprises me a bit.

 

Carnival's policy didn't kick in until today, I believe. Not sure about other lines. Will be interesting to see if the people demanding the ability to cancel last week are the vocal minority on these boards or if there really are mass cancellations this week. My parents have decided to cancel their trip with me on the Bliss on 3/22. With the State Department advising seniors and people with pre-existing conditions not to cruise, we may see many in my parents' demographic choosing to cancel. This morning, Dr, Fauci from the NIH said explicitly that the elderly and people with underlying conditions should "go nowhere near a cruise ship" on CNN.

 

I think it's very unfortunate. While my mom is 69 and my dad is 78, they are both in great health and the only "underlying" condition either of them has is controlled high blood pressure. Add to that the fact that hundreds of cruise ships sail every week and only two have had an "outbreak" in the past two months, and I think it is a huge overreaction for my parents to cancel. But I suppose everyone has to assess the risk and choose for themselves.

Edited March 9, 2020 by JamieLogical

[spanishguy1970]

3 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Carnival's policy didn't kick in until today, I believe. Not sure about other lines. Will be interesting to see if the people demanding the ability to cancel last week are the vocal minority on these boards or if there really are mass cancellations this week. My parents have decided to cancel their trip with me on the Bliss on 3/22. With the State Department advising seniors and people with pre-existing conditions not to cruise, we may see many in my parents' demographic choosing to cancel. This morning, Dr, Fauci from the NIH said explicitly that the elderly and people with underlying conditions should "go nowhere near a cruise ship" on CNN.

 

I think it's very unfortunate. While my mom is 69 and my dad is 78, they are both in great health and they only "underlying" condition either of them has is controlled high blood pressure. Add to that the fact that hundreds of cruise ships sail every week and only two have had an "outbreak" in the past two months, and I think it is a huge overreaction for my parents to cancel. But I supposed everyone has to assess the risk and choose for themselves.

Since our cruise is in 6 weeks we decided to stay put and wait, we will see whether things improve or not improve by then.. I am traveling with someone who is over 70 years old , i myself am 49. I have to admit i am concern more for his health than mine so we will be paying attention to updates.

[hamrag]

9 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

.....I think it is a huge overreaction for my parents to cancel. But I suppose everyone has to assess the risk and choose for themselves.

 

Don't you be letting your hair down because they aint there!! 🤣

[GA Dave]

Not sure if this is allowed on here (please delete if not), but I do not believe I have ever seen a cruise where the fare is less than the port fees.  This is for a three-day on RCL's OOTS.

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by GA Dave

[SplashOfWater]

I have been monitoring our May 1st sailing on the Sun. We are on a 20-day repositioning from Port Canaveral to Seattle. I have not seen any price changes over the weekend or any changes to cabin availability. Although our roll call has been pretty quiet regarding cancellations, I suspect there will be some starting tomorrow.

[JamieLogical]

3 minutes ago, akmarshall said:

I have been monitoring our May 1st sailing on the Sun. We are on a 20-day repositioning from Port Canaveral to Seattle. I have not seen any price changes over the weekend or any changes to cabin availability. Although our roll call has been pretty quiet regarding cancellations, I suspect there will be some starting tomorrow.

 

I let my roll call know my parents are cancelling, because I had signed them up for the M&G. But I haven't seen anyone else posting about canceling yet in either of my roll calls. I'm not on the FB for either roll call though and it seems most of the activity happens over there.

[SplashOfWater]

1 minute ago, JamieLogical said:

 

I let my roll call know my parents are cancelling, because I had signed them up for the M&G. But I haven't seen anyone else posting about canceling yet in either of my roll calls. I'm not on the FB for either roll call though and it seems most of the activity happens over there.

I did not join our FB roll call either. I decided to just stick with CC.😊

[parmus]

I’m on the Joy on the 22nd. I just received another email about bidding for upgrades which were not going to do.  I’ve seen the Haven go from sold out to having a few cabins left in various categories.  My category is holding strong On price and it’s not the lowest it’s been. I have also seen my category go up in inventory and then back down again.  Lower priced categories have plummeted. I’m minisuite large balcony.

Edited March 9, 2020 by parmus
Added information

[JamieLogical]

8 minutes ago, parmus said:

I’m on the Joy on the 22nd. I just received another email about bidding for upgrades which were not going to do.  I’ve seen the Haven go from sold out to having a few cabins left in various categories.  My category is holding strong On price and it’s not the lowest it’s been. I have also seen my category go up in inventory and then back down again.  Lower priced categories have plummeted. I’m minisuite large balcony.

 

Over what time frame have you seen these price fluctuations? Over the weekend? Or before Friday's announcemet?

[baflagg]

We are sailing 4 nights on 4/22 on the Encore and just this morning started to discuss if we should cancel, right now we are keeping with things as planned.  I think the only reason we would cancel is if we noticed any price drop for August rates then maybe we would cancel to rebook and go for the 7 nights vs our scheduled 4 nights.  

[Starry Eyes]

51 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

Not sure if this is allowed on here (please delete if not), but I do not believe I have ever seen a cruise where the fare is less than the port fees.  This is for a three-day on RCL's OOTS.

 

Dave, I was charged more in port/taxes than fare a couple times this fall on 5 day sailing of the Sun (inside or OV cabins at last minute prices).  Star return from South America also has had port/taxes substantially higher than lowest fare (Panama canal cruises have high fees and that cruise had low inside prices in final months).  

[brovol]

24 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Carnival's policy didn't kick in until today, I believe. Not sure about other lines. Will be interesting to see if the people demanding the ability to cancel last week are the vocal minority on these boards or if there really are mass cancellations this week. My parents have decided to cancel their trip with me on the Bliss on 3/22. With the State Department advising seniors and people with pre-existing conditions not to cruise, we may see many in my parents' demographic choosing to cancel. This morning, Dr, Fauci from the NIH said explicitly that the elderly and people with underlying conditions should "go nowhere near a cruise ship" on CNN.

 

I think it's very unfortunate. While my mom is 69 and my dad is 78, they are both in great health and the only "underlying" condition either of them has is controlled high blood pressure. Add to that the fact that hundreds of cruise ships sail every week and only two have had an "outbreak" in the past two months, and I think it is a huge overreaction for my parents to cancel. But I suppose everyone has to assess the risk and choose for themselves.

My speculation is that there will not be a mass exodus; at least not right away.  If the NCL gave everyone three days to decide, and after that the offer is gone I think there would be mass cancellations.  I bet most will wait for now.  There is no penalty no to wait.  If I was NCL I would have put a deadline to cancel of ten or fourteen days before sailing, so that they still have enough time to refill the cabins.

[LS6Caddy]

The next few days are going to be interesting.  The stock market just shut down.  This thing is changing by the hour.  It seems as though...at least based on scanning message boards...that their biggest problem is the quarantine period.  Most peoples biggest concern is getting stuck somewhere for up to 2 extra weeks and what that looks like for their individual employment.  It is the reason we are considering canceling our Breakaway on the 28.  We hate to because our flights have gotten cheaper and cheaper, we have already been upgraded once due to price drop, and the cruise is likely to be not crowded at all. 

 

With that said, I would not be surprised if there is such a mass exodus over the next few days that they start canceling cruises the next few weeks.  

[JandC_Cruising]

9 minutes ago, parmus said:

I’m on the Joy on the 22nd. I just received another email about bidding for upgrades which were not going to do.  I’ve seen the Haven go from sold out to having a few cabins left in various categories.  My category is holding strong On price and it’s not the lowest it’s been. I have also seen my category go up in inventory and then back down again.  Lower priced categories have plummeted. I’m minisuite large balcony.

We are on the same cruise..and right now have no plans to cancel.  Hope to see you there!

 

I've been monitoring the cabins, but frankly stopped doing it as OCDish as usual since we are in a Haven aft already and not bidding.  But I still enjoy the process of monitoring. 🙂

As of this morning, there is only one H6 open on our cruise (it magically opened up last week -- but the one open H4 filled, so perhaps they allocated a bid from an H6 to H4).

The open H6 price is within $125 of what we paid back in the fall -- but without air and free 3rd/4th guest, so no real movement in my opinion.

But the Insides and regular balconies prices dropped by several hundred, at least.  Yet even that seems similar to what you expect within 2 weeks of a cruise to just fill cabins.

 

There are 110 total "open cabins" on our ship as of this morning. This is 21 fewer than 2-1/2 weeks ago. 

I figure it will be interesting to see what happens this week with cabins -- Do more cancel or does the ship fill up?