NCLH Stock Price

[skeeter195]

I learned to trade options about 15 years ago by buying a few contracts at a time until I got the hang of it.  I did not want to play for "fun" in case I missed something big.  I made roughly 100 times my starting number in about 6 months, then lost 75% of that in 2 days.  Not hard but it does take constant attention especially on the short term contracts.  

 

Lets just say that I usually bring right around 5 figures to gamble with on my cruises, so I made out very well.  FYI the $57 per is off some.  

[cksv]

Cool to see some options talk here! Today I bought the January 2022 $20 calls, and sold the January 2022 $30 calls. Essentially I'm betting that NCLH will be above $20/share by January 2022 with my profits capped once the stock reaches $30. Each contract cost me $155 with a maximum profit of $845.

Edited March 16, 2020 by cksv

[JohnIreland]

I was waiting for $10 to get.  Missed it on Friday , but got in today at $10.50.

 

My idea is that things can't get much worse than complete shutdown.

[Newleno]

2 hours ago, skeeter195 said:

I made my first options trade in over 10 years this morning.  Bought the March 20th 12.50 when it was at 10.34 and sold it when it hit 13.07.  I also took my casino money for my cancelled cruise and gambled.  In a couple of hours I made enough for a nice haven cruise.  Problem is now I am stuck to my computer screen looking for more home runs.  

Any bullish plays are crazy on cruiselines, good for you.   I started to look at this stuff way to late, I distanced myself from the market a few years ago,  However with just a little foresight and not much smarts, well after the princess Asian disaster  the writing was on the wall for some beaucoup bucks buying puts/spreads on the airlines and cruiselines.  Incredible Easy Black Swan.    I still think the legacy airlines and cruiselines will be BK!  

[NyYankees2k3]

I hope NCL makes it. I bought 100 shares last year.  I own 300 now, bought more too early.  I'm down more money on cruise stocks than all of my 19 cruises cost.  

 

[bmwman]

7 hours ago, NyYankees2k3 said:

I hope NCL makes it. I bought 100 shares last year.  I own 300 now, bought more too early.  I'm down more money on cruise stocks than all of my 19 cruises cost.  

 

As I have said Chapter 11 is staring the cruise industry head on now. Not just NCL  the industry.

 

NCL are going to pay the price for over gearing and yes I too have made some very nice  short term profits on this and other shares - feel a bit like a vulture. 

 

When all is said an done no revenue and massive capital debt is when I studied not great. I would rather b as we are no debt and reduced income. Yes slower growth but sustainable.

 

Anyone who thinks the cruise industry which pays a lot of its taxes outside the US such a EU VAT will be bailed out is I suggest away with the fairies.

 

Now anyone want a contract and a price on the Leonardo project being shelved and more ...away class ships from MeyerWerft. Might not happen but sure would save them a bunch of "$$$ at this time and give them certainty that the marlet loves these ships

 

Or the real longshot   Andy Stuart to return to replace FDR 

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2020 by bmwman

[fstuff1]

ncl started to draw on their line of credit:

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/nclh-begins-drawing-credit-facilities-totaling-155bn

 

"This is a precautionary measure, the company said, to increase its cash position and facilitate financial flexibility in light of current uncertainty in the global markets resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak."

Edited March 17, 2020 by fstuff1

[Formula280SS]

12 hours ago, bmwman said:

As I have said Chapter 11 is staring the cruise industry head on now. Not just NCL  the industry.

 

NCL are going to pay the price for over gearing and yes I too have made some very nice  short term profits on this and other shares - feel a bit like a vulture. 

 

When all is said an done no revenue and massive capital debt is when I studied not great. I would rather b as we are no debt and reduced income. Yes slower growth but sustainable.

 

Anyone who thinks the cruise industry which pays a lot of its taxes outside the US such a EU VAT will be bailed out is I suggest away with the fairies.

 

Now anyone want a contract and a price on the Leonardo project being shelved and more ...away class ships from MeyerWerft. Might not happen but sure would save them a bunch of "$$$ at this time and give them certainty that the marlet loves these ships

 

Or the real longshot   Andy Stuart to return to replace FDR 

 

 

 

 

Agree.

 

"According to annual report filings, the major cruise lines pay an average tax rate of 0.8%" in US.  From what I understand it is based on a small % of payroll and assets of US offices as a portion of total world-wide payroll and assets (not positive, but believable).

 

Although the Administration wants to help the "port-cities" in Florida, the opposition does not.  So, in the 3rd wave of the Covid-19 response, the STIMULUS, the cruise industry is SHUT OUT.

 

This is on top of "so many new ships" and "so many new ships on the way."  Nobody could have predicted this, but it is what it is.  The largest passenger base is, by age and health, is the most 'AT RISK and it might take quite a while for demand to return to anything considered 'normal.

 

Chapter 11 Reorganization Bankruptcy may be the ONLY OPTION if this extends into the Summer (even early Summer). 

 

Equity, as in most cases, will be evaporated and creditors (debt holders of various tiered security positions) will have to accept court ordered restructuring. 

 

NO ONE wins (except for the large bankruptcy law firms and restructuring consultants).

 

 

[cksv]

Interesting excerpt from an article posted today. https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-operators-seem-left-out-of-the-850-billion-stimulus-plan-their-stocks-are-sinking-again-51584464624?mod=bol-social-tw

 

"Meanwhile, Harry Curtis, who covers the cruise industry for Instinet, wrote in a note Monday that the “U.S.-listed cruise operators have enough borrowing capacity, cash and CapEx flexibility to stay afloat for roughly a year.” He estimates that Norwegian, the smallest of the three cruise operators in terms of revenues, has the most staying power right now, with a monthly cash burn of about $140 million and liquidity, or cash, of about $1.6 billion. He puts Royal Caribbean in second place in terms of liquidity, followed by Carnival."

[bmwman]

31 minutes ago, Formula280SS said:

 

Agree.

 

"According to annual report filings, the major cruise lines pay an average tax rate of 0.8%" in US.  From what I understand it is based on a small % of payroll and assets of US offices as a portion of total world-wide payroll and assets (not positive, but believable).

 

Although the Administration wants to help the "port-cities" in Florida, the opposition does not.  So, in the 3rd wave of the Covid-19 response, the STIMULUS, the cruise industry is SHUT OUT.

 

This is on top of "so many new ships" and "so many new ships on the way."  Nobody could have predicted this, but it is what it is.  The largest passenger base is, by age and health, is the most 'AT RISK and it might take quite a while for demand to return to anything considered 'normal.

 

Chapter 11 Reorganization Bankruptcy may be the ONLY OPTION if this extends into the Summer (even early Summer). 

 

Equity, as in most cases, will be evaporated and creditors (debt holders of various tiered security positions) will have to accept court ordered restructuring. 

 

NO ONE wins (except for the large bankruptcy law firms and restructuring consultants).

 

 

Your knowledge of US tax is correct 

 

I am now NIL NCL shares... There are going down again!!

 

So here you go the debt is building to a point of no return - really sad. and ship refurbs will be a thing of the past. 

 

If NCL survive and I for one hope they do they will need yo

 

reconnect with loyal customers and not alienate them

Cancel or delay Leonardo class

Remove FDR and get NCL back to its roots!!! 

 

Share price falling again!

Edited March 17, 2020 by bmwman

[fstuff1]

ncl is at 9.40 premarket :o

[Farts]

18 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

ncl is at 9.40 premarket 😮

Geez...

[luv2kroooz]

...and the Senate says no bailout without meaningful change

[JAFA13]

3 hours ago, fstuff1 said:

ncl is at 9.40 premarket 😮

Fell to 9.25 after opening. Hovering around $9.30 now. 

[oteixeira]

I got in at 9.50 and don't have a worry in the world on it.  Once this clears we will go back up to pre-pandemic levels based on the past historical events (Look at 9/11).  I also bought CCL and RCL, just so I can say I own them all.   Luck to all!

[fstuff1]

8 minutes ago, JAFA13 said:

Fell to 9.25 after opening. Hovering around $9.30 now. 

went down to 8.96!

now 9,.25 again

[ColeThornton]

1 minute ago, fstuff1 said:

went down to 8.96!

now 9,.25 again

 

 

What is it now?

 

How about now?  lol

[NyYankees2k3]

6 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

What is it now?

 

How about now?  lol

I'm down so much on cruise stocks. Expecting to loss everything.

[ColeThornton]

7 minutes ago, NyYankees2k3 said:

I'm down so much on cruise stocks. Expecting to loss everything.

 

I'm just joking around but yea, it's ugly isn't it?  Not just cruise stocks but pretty much everything.  Even my tech and defense stocks are crapping out.  It's going to be interesting to see where the bottom of these markets will occur.  I think there will be a strong bounce back once the virus numbers steady out.

[sixesandeights]

1 hour ago, NyYankees2k3 said:

I'm down so much on cruise stocks. Expecting to loss everything.

Makes no sense....why would you lose everything?  These cruise companies have low paid staff, overhead costs for the major items (Fuel, Food, etc) that stop when not operating, large collections of physical assets, access to large lines of credit........there is really nothing to show they will go under completely.  I am curious as to your thinking with a comment like this...

 

6&8

[fstuff1]

1 hour ago, fstuff1 said:

went down to 8.96!

 

 

now at new 52week low of 7.83 

yike!

Edited March 18, 2020 by fstuff1

[ColeThornton]

3 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

 

now at new 52week low of 7.83 

yike!

 

 

Good update.

[ziggyuk]

16 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

 

now at new 52week low of 7.83 

yike!

 

Yes, my limit order just executed at $8

[mking8288]

Expect, plan for cruiselines that currently paid (consistently) their quarterly dividends to reduce them, if not suspend them, for the immediate/near future, until ...  We owned there, reduced our overall holdings in our portfolio at the beginning of January, watched them tanked, brought some shares when it sank (should've waited) but still it flatten our overall costs on a per share basis.  Go long and over next 5 to 10 years, will rise and regain ... 

 

As for those ships in the builder's shipyard already in the pipelines #cough #cough. 

[fstuff1]

32 minutes ago, mking8288 said:

Expect, plan for cruiselines that currently paid (consistently) their quarterly dividends to reduce them, if not suspend them, for the immediate/near future, until ...  We owned there, reduced our overall holdings in our portfolio at the beginning of January, watched them tanked, brought some shares when it sank (should've waited) but still it flatten our overall costs on a per share basis.  Go long and over next 5 to 10 years, will rise and regain ... 

 

As for those ships in the builder's shipyard already in the pipelines #cough #cough. 

 

read that carnival is paying out  $1.4 billion in dividends this year?!

$350M per quarter? 

 

Royal is  $650 million dividend payout this year.

Edited March 18, 2020 by fstuff1