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On 6/17/2020 at 4:04 PM, fstuff1 said:

 

i was wrong.

opened at -10% and closed at -8%.

 

guess people didnt know about the leaked ship schedule from last week??!?! :classic_ohmy:

wow.. could have made a killing shorting the stock.

Got out at a 1% loss earlier today.  Watching it tumble more.

I will wait to rebuy and then sell it again at a $2 per share profit

 

Steve

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On 6/19/2020 at 1:35 PM, mscdivina2016 said:

Got out at a 1% loss earlier today.  Watching it tumble more.

I will wait to rebuy and then sell it again at a $2 per share profit

 

Steve

 

dow up 200pts premarket.

but ncl is down -4% to $17.50. 

wonder if it'll breach the $17.25 support line today?

Edited by fstuff1
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36 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

 

dow up 200pts premarket.

but ncl is down -4% to $17.50. 

wonder if it'll breach the $17.25 support line today?

You must be making a bundle.  All these day trading prices.  Please keep us informed.

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19 minutes ago, pickle11 said:

You must be making a bundle.  All these day trading prices.  Please keep us informed.

nah.. i've lost $100k so far shorting ncl at $12.

i still think i'll make $ b4 the virus vaccine comes out next year, tho

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1 hour ago, fstuff1 said:

nah.. i've lost $100k so far shorting ncl at $12.

i still think i'll make $ b4 the virus vaccine comes out next year, tho


Don't feel bad I was up over 100% and am now back to just a 3% gain on the stock, so I gave it all back rather then selling and buying back on dips.  This is a super volatile stock, and honestly does not always react the way you expect to news.  

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On 6/22/2020 at 8:05 AM, fstuff1 said:

nah.. i've lost $100k so far shorting ncl at $12.

i still think i'll make $ b4 the virus vaccine comes out next year, tho

NCLH down 10 percent this morning. All cruise lines stocks down about the same.

Airlines losing back their recent gains also.

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1 hour ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

NCLH down 10 percent this morning. All cruise lines stocks down about the same.

Airlines losing back their recent gains also.

 

I am now afraid of swimming in this pool. Now that Pullmantar has filed for bankruptcy (49% owned by RCCL) I have concerns.

 

I don't know if I will jump back in. Maybe when the 1st cruise actually starts or CDC says OK, for a quick ride up then I will jump before the 1st infection pops up onboard.

Steve

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On 6/24/2020 at 11:32 AM, mscdivina2016 said:

 

I am now afraid of swimming in this pool. Now that Pullmantar has filed for bankruptcy (49% owned by RCCL) I have concerns.

 

I don't know if I will jump back in. Maybe when the 1st cruise actually starts or CDC says OK, for a quick ride up then I will jump before the 1st infection pops up onboard.

Steve

Wow, I have missed a lot. Hopefully this volatility will mean a chance for me to make money. 

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With the major cruise lines debt recently downgraded to "junk" status, investing in the common stock is not for the faint of heart.  They have borrowed 'to the hilt in order to cash flow through no revenues for 12-15 months.  However, such negative cash flow will be accompanied by serious operating losses.  Since most of the intangible assets (goodwill, for example) have already been written off at year or first quarter end (billions), there are still some more of such.  As far as operations, if "this no sailing" continue into next Spring, it is not reasonable to expect the operating revenues to POP back to pre-Covid 19 levels as it appears that there will be % of capacity implementations as well as additional costs of precautionary safety and health protocols.  It would appear that such circumstances could only be positively changed is with a generally accepted and accredited Vaccine as well as the same regarding a Drug Therapeutic; even such would take time for potential passengers to "see how it goes" and if such reduce the risk to an acceptable level.

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I am trying to think more simply about stocks.  I was looking for data about cruise ship passengers and found this from the link below.  The report shows that most cruise passengers come from the United States and most trips are in the Caribbean and Bahamas.  And most cruise ships I've seen depart from Florida, then I guess New York and the Gulf area.  Thinking simply, before the cruise ships get going, they need customers from the United States,  Florida has to be open (cruise ports, hotels, airports, etc), and the Caribbean and Bahamian islands have to be willing to welcome cruisers.  Florida is closing down more.  Not many islands are open to visitors and some require a recent COVID-19 test.  I don't think the cruise ships are going to move for several months and doubtful at all in 2020.  It's just not looking good.  There is no revenue.  To stay in business, they will have to raise money by borrowing more (if even possible), selling more stock, or bankruptcy -- all of which can cause stock prices to drop.  Are there any other options?  Stock prices are sure to go down back to $10 is my prediction.  I don't want this to happen.  We have two NCL cruises planned.  But this seems to be the reality.

 

If things do get back to business, it's not going to be 100% back to normal.  So, what would one expect NCL's stock price to be?  If it was $50-60 before the COVID-19 drop, would you expect the price to rise to 50% of what it was before the drop?  75%?  My guess is it will drop to $10 again before it goes up.

 

I looked at Royal Caribbean's stock and thought the same thing.  If it was $100-125 before COVID-19, when things get back closer to normal, will it be $50-60?  It's almost $50 now.  I'd expect it to drop a lot more too before it goes up..

 

Travel and Leisure - Caribbean Islands Reopening

shttps://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/caribbean-islands-opening-travel-coronavirus

Florida Caribbean Cruise Association

https://www.f-cca.com/downloads/2018-Cruise-Industry-Overview-and-Statistics.pdf 


 

Edited by SeaWatcher65
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5 hours ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

I am trying to think more simply about stocks.  I was looking for data about cruise ship passengers and found this from the link below.  The report shows that most cruise passengers come from the United States and most trips are in the Caribbean and Bahamas.  And most cruise ships I've seen depart from Florida, then I guess New York and the Gulf area. 

 

That info would be wrong. There has to be at least 25 cruise lines out there but most only know the main stream ones that sail from the USA.

There is a market in Europe and all over the world. Does Fl happen to be the epicenter? Probably but I doubt that FL accounts for even 50%. I have cruised all over the world and FL may not even account for a third.

Its a big world out there and many ports. Copenhagen , Rome, Sydney, and many more.

  Some of the European companies are trying to be present. MSC and Costa come to mind.

 

If we had the answer to whats going to happen we would all be rich. I personally see bankruptcy as the best options. I know we have all seen the news about the financing the cruise lines got, but I doubt those monies came in exchange for common stock. Collateral, or even preferred stock would be my guess, so the little guy gets screwed. We all lose FCC, our cash refunds never come and they start over with a clean slate when things start.

Steve

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10 hours ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

If things do get back to business, it's not going to be 100% back to normal.  So, what would one expect NCL's stock price to be?  If it was $50-60 before the COVID-19 drop, would you expect the price to rise to 50% of what it was before the drop?  75%?  My guess is it will drop to $10 again before it goes up.

 

ncl diluted/devalued their shares by $12/share (?) when they issued new stock a couple of months ago.

so that $60 high in feb should be viewed as $48 because of the stock dilution.

 

i would bet ncl would be offering another round of stock soon since the current price is still relatively high.

get some more $ and last a few months more.

 

Edited by fstuff1
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3 minutes ago, npcl said:

Scrape.  That is where the Pullmantur ships are going along with the Costa Victoria.

 

I don't think that's the case here, you have a mid life ship that was fully refurbished recently, she has a full season planned and all of a suddenly an unnamed buyer is found. I don't think she is going for scrap.

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On 7/3/2020 at 4:09 PM, mscdivina2016 said:

That info would be wrong. There has to be at least 25 cruise lines out there but most only know the main stream ones that sail from the USA.

There is a market in Europe and all over the world. Does Fl happen to be the epicenter? Probably but I doubt that FL accounts for even 50%. I have cruised all over the world and FL may not even account for a third.

Its a big world out there and many ports. Copenhagen , Rome, Sydney, and many more.

  Some of the European companies are trying to be present. MSC and Costa come to mind.

 

If we had the answer to whats going to happen we would all be rich. I personally see bankruptcy as the best options. I know we have all seen the news about the financing the cruise lines got, but I doubt those monies came in exchange for common stock. Collateral, or even preferred stock would be my guess, so the little guy gets screwed. We all lose FCC, our cash refunds never come and they start over with a clean slate when things start.

Steve

From Market watch 2018

 

Cruise passenger by source

 

North America   54.5%

Europe                26%

Asia                     9.2%

South America  3.5%

Australia/N.Z    5.2%

Middle East/Africa  1.6%

 

Percentage of Cruise Industry controlled by RCL, CCL, and NCLH (by % of passengers 2018)

 

CCL 47.4%

RCL 23%

NCLH 9.5

 

Total controlled by big 3    79.9%

 

 

Largest of the independents

 

MSC 7.2%

Disney 2.3%

Tui  2.0%

Pullmantur  1.4%

Dream 1.0%

Hurtigrutin  .9%

Star Cruises  .9%

Viking Ocean  .6%

 

Total 16.3

 

All of the rest combine amount to 3.8% of the market in 2018 when it comes to number of passengers carried.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

I don't think that's the case here, you have a mid life ship that was fully refurbished recently, she has a full season planned and all of a suddenly an unnamed buyer is found. I don't think she is going for scrap.

It is only 4 years newer than the Costa Victoria which is confirmed as going to Scrap.

 

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18 hours ago, npcl said:

From Market watch 2018

 

Cruise passenger by source

 

North America   54.5%

Europe                26%

Asia                     9.2%

South America  3.5%

Australia/N.Z    5.2%

Middle East/Africa  1.6%

 

Percentage of Cruise Industry controlled by RCL, CCL, and NCLH (by % of passengers 2018)

 

CCL 47.4%

RCL 23%

NCLH 9.5

 

Total controlled by big 3    79.9%

 

 

Largest of the independents

 

MSC 7.2%

Disney 2.3%

Tui  2.0%

Pullmantur  1.4%

Dream 1.0%

Hurtigrutin  .9%

Star Cruises  .9%

Viking Ocean  .6%

 

Total 16.3

 

All of the rest combine amount to 3.8% of the market in 2018 when it comes to number of passengers carried.

 

 

I understand the above . I was referring to the article link in the posters post,in Travel and leisure.

Steve

 

 

 

Its a self serving article. 

 

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On 7/3/2020 at 10:19 PM, fstuff1 said:

 

ncl diluted/devalued their shares by $12/share (?) when they issued new stock a couple of months ago.

so that $60 high in feb should be viewed as $48 because of the stock dilution.

 

i would bet ncl would be offering another round of stock soon since the current price is still relatively high.

get some more $ and last a few months more.

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3589759-norwegian-cruise-files-to-sell-shares-receives-positive-report-from-auditor

 

"Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) files to sell 46,577,947 share on behalf of a selling shareholder in a new offering."

 

called it!

but shares are UP 2% premarket?!

Edited by fstuff1
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Norwegian Cruise Line warned of a potential bankruptcy, saying that there’s “substantial doubt” about its ability to keep operating amid coronavirus.

NCL is borrowing money to stay afloat and just issued statements about potential bankruptcy. Ships are built for running daily now shut down the mold /plumbing Failing. Effects of salt water and salt air are a recipe for disaster. Each month of lack of use accelerates the rust. Skeleton crew are only capable of so much maintenance. Where do cruise lines borrow money in another 4 to 6 months. Vaccines not possible until February not to mention trials.

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5 minutes ago, cementhands said:

Norwegian Cruise Line warned of a potential bankruptcy, saying that there’s “substantial doubt” about its ability to keep operating amid coronavirus.

NCL is borrowing money to stay afloat and just issued statements about potential bankruptcy. Ships are built for running daily now shut down the mold /plumbing Failing. Effects of salt water and salt air are a recipe for disaster. Each month of lack of use accelerates the rust. Skeleton crew are only capable of so much maintenance. Where do cruise lines borrow money in another 4 to 6 months. Vaccines not possible until February not to mention trials.

 

 

 You do realize that they've secured additional funding since then and have enough cash in the bank to maintain operations for 18 months even with cruising shut down? That is an old article.

 Here's one article on it:

 

 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/05/05/2027554/0/en/NCL-Corporation-Ltd-Announces-400-Million-Investment-by-L-Catterton.html

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

NCL is doing an equity for debt swap.

L. Catterton gets the 46 million new shares and NCL retires it 400 million debt to Catterton. Still, it is dilution for stockholders.

 

yet the stock price is reacting more to the dow's 500 point drop than to the dilution?!

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5 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

 

yet the stock price is reacting more to the dow's 500 point drop than to the dilution?!

 

Many investors played with the Big 3 CL's with heavy daily day-trader volume.  Seems to be slowing a bit; however, all 3 have Short Interest's of +- 20% so heaving capitalized investors are still betting more PPS drops to come.  The 6/30/20 Short Interest Report will be out soon so we can check on that.

 

In the meantime, taking the NCLH 10-Q financial data, adding the total new shares from the two exchanges to the existing common shares, the BOOK PPS and NET OF INTANGIBLE PPS are not impressive.

 

Further, at a BURN and LOSS rate of $150M per month, those PPS both get rather worrisome (just updated, not proofed yet).

 

1653503348_NCLDEBTPPS.thumb.PNG.d41455c86422f7801575f03731b26511.PNG

Edited by Formula280SS
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