NCLH Stock Price

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

So, for us novices, does that mean MSC or some other investors, takes over NCL when it gets down to $4 a share?   Will this happen in 2022 or 2023?

 

We are all just speculating, and I'm certainly a novice, but IMO a hostile (or friendly) take over is not out of the question. It's not unprecedented. Carnival attempted a hostile takeover of NCL in 1996 and 1999. Ironically Genting (who is now bankrupt) won a hostile takeover of NCL in 2000. It happens.

 

You may find this article interesting:

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/how-much-is-a-cruise-line-worth

Genting previously acquired 100% of NCL in a dramatic bidding war back in 2000. At the time, there was already an NCL Holding trading on the New York Stock Exchange that went public in 1999; it owned both Norwegian Cruise Line and the smaller Orient Line. In 1999, Carnival Corp. launched a hostile bid for NCL Holding, offering shareholders a higher price than they could get on the open market. The bid was equal to $900 million at the time, and it looked like Carnival would win the day.

 

But a few days later a surprise player emerged: Star Cruises of Malaysia. The company acquired 20% of NCL Holdings overnight, and quickly increased its stake to 39%. It was not clear whether Star was working in concert with NCL to ward off Carnival, but in the end it didnt matter since enough shares had been taken off the table to stop Carnivals hostile takeover.

[BermudaBound2014]

@Crazy planning mom you have me walking down memory lane. Remember when CCL tried to take over Celebrity but Royal Caribbean came to the rescue with a friendly merge?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/07/03/business/royal-caribbean-and-celebrity-in-definitive-merger-agreement.html#:~:text=Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity,subject only to regulatory approval.

 

 

I remember this one from 1989. CCL bought all of HAL...

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-02-12-tr-2780-story.html

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Beezo]

I'll try to dig it up, but I also believe Royal Caribbean at one point was in merger talks with P&O Princess (P&O Cruises, Princess Cruises, P&O Australia, Aida, A'Rosa, Ocean Village).  They ended up merging with Carnival Corp and became dual listed.

 

There was also a minute when NCL owned AIDA Cruises (1 ship fleet at the time), shortly after they acquired Majesty Cruise Line in the late 90s. 

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, Beezo said:

I'll try to dig it up, but I also believe Royal Caribbean at one point was in merger talks with P&O Princess (P&O Cruises, Princess Cruises, P&O Australia, Aida, A'Rosa, Ocean Village).  They ended up merging with Carnival Corp and became dual listed.

 

There was also a minute when NCL owned AIDA Cruises (1 ship fleet at the time), shortly after they acquired Majesty Cruise Line in the late 90s. 

 

 

Yep, CCL was going for a hostile take over of P&0 Princess which was rejected and plans were set forth to merge with Royal Caribbean. It appeared to be close to a done deal before P&O backed out of the merger. 

 

Setting the stage for a battle of the cruise-ship giants, P&O Princess Cruises PLC Sunday rejected a 3.2 billion pound ($4.61 billion or 5.16 billion euro) hostile takeover offer from Carnival Corp. and reaffirmed its merger plans with Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines Ltd. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1008531669684222760

 

 

 

As we all know, P&O Princess was acquired by CCL after all. Details of the acquisition are in the link below.

 

Britain's biggest cruise ship operator, P&O Princess, yesterday agreed to join forces with its US rival Carnival Corporation, throwing overboard an earlier deal with Royal Caribbean after an epic 11-month takeover saga

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2002/oct/26/2

[BermudaBound2014]

On another subject, I took my first three cruises on Regency Cruise Line and remember very well when Regency cruise line declared bankruptcy. Lot's of news stories of passengers being stranded, the crew selling things like TV's to get food, and passengers who lost their payments when the line abruptly stopped sailing. Good times.

 

Ironically, I was sailing on a Regency Cruise (I believe the Star) from Jamaica in 1989. We finished the cruise and debarked only to find out the Eastern Airlines was on Strike. We ended up staying in Sandals resort for another week trying to fly out of Jamaica. That strike lasted 9 months and bankrupt the airline. 

 

These things do happen. 

[ColeThornton]

CCL now under the $10 level with NCLH not far behind.   Lots of food for thought on what to do right now.   🙂

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, ColeThornton said:

CCL now under the $10 level with NCLH not far behind.   Lots of food for thought on what to do right now.   🙂

 

Well, everyone knows I'm shorting CCL and RCL so for me those were the only two that lite up green today. I'm still holding my shorts because I think there is still room to move down.

 

Cruise stock dropped  more than the DOW and today was a very bad day. It's brutal out there.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Buckle up.

 

Feds increased .75% yesterday and are now rumored for another .75% in July. This is the greatest inflation rate since the 80's with no sign of settling down. As a result, NCL stock is down again today. IMO single digits are around the corner. 

 

Yes the stock market is down overall, but cruise line stock continues to plummet at a much higher rate. In the last month the Dow has lost 4.76% while NCL stock lost 35.7%. In the last month! The stock has lost 67% since they launched the "Great Cruise Comeback" last year.

 

Even though the stock price looks attractive, I would not purchase this stock for the $100 OBC until we know where the bottom is. 

 

[complawyer]

we bought 100 shares of ncl at $7.00 just after covid hit. if it goes any lower, i'll probably buy another 100.  my wife is taking a beating on disney

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, complawyer said:

we bought 100 shares of ncl at $7.00 just after covid hit. if it goes any lower, i'll probably buy another 100.  my wife is taking a beating on disney

 

In the last year, Disney has fallen 45% while NCL has fallen 67%. 

 

When it falls below $7 I will likely cash in all my shorts and switch to long too. A $700 investment is negligible in the grand scheme of things.

[CrazyTrain2]

This kind of volatility you'd think it was crypto.  Well Crypto doesn't make money either.

 

With the price of diesel fuel, they might be hooking up treadmills to the buffet line and generating ship's power from the desert table.

[complawyer]

bermuda bound. that's why i bought at $7.00 per share. worst i could lose $700.  i can take that kind of a hit thankfully

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, complawyer said:

bermuda bound. that's why i bought at $7.00 per share. worst i could lose $700.  i can take that kind of a hit thankfully

You also have to remember with each cruise you take the credit you get is basically a dividend, so your cost basis is lowered.  If you took 2 cruises (like I have) at 5 days each, you would have received 100 in premium.  Divide that by the number of stocks you own (if 100, you get $1) and that is your discount per share, your cost basis would now be $6 a share.  

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

You also have to remember with each cruise you take the credit you get is basically a dividend, so your cost basis is lowered.  If you took 2 cruises (like I have) at 5 days each, you would have received 100 in premium.  Divide that by the number of stocks you own (if 100, you get $1) and that is your discount per share, your cost basis would now be $6 a share.  

 

The OBC is certainly nice, especially when the risk is $700. Not so great when the risk was $3,000. When prices hit what I guess to be the bottom, I'll likely by 100 shares of each line. At those March 2020 covid low prices, it's chump change. 

 

[cruiseny4life]

13 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

When prices hit what I guess to be the bottom, I'll likely by 100 shares of each line

Not to jump into a 40 page thread in the middle...but to jump into a 40 page thread - I've read a bit of what you all have discussed. I'm interested in purchasing stock, but obviously want the best possible deal. Originally I was thinking that I'd buy when the stock hits $10, but now that we're there I'm wondering how low it can go due to:

 

COVID, recession fears, inflation, war with Russia, oil prices, and so many other variables

 

Do you have a bottom number in mind? Or will you be guestimating the bottom? If stocks hit rock bottom (sub $5/share) do you think a hostile or friendly takeover will occur? What does that do to stock prices - I suppose drives them up, but in this new economy I don't know.

[BermudaBound2014]

@cruiseny4life Disclaimer: I"m just another idiot on an internet forum. There are plenty of people here who understand the market more than I do and I would not suggest taking stock advice from me without confirming with a professions.

 

But you are asking my opinion:

NCL in the 7's

CCL in the 5's

RCL in the 30's

 

That's my idea today. As new information comes in, my target prices obviously change. I still think there is room to move down in all 3. I don't need to catch the falling knife and am willing to wait until we start to hear some good news. Right now it's dismal: Covid Protocols, Covid fears, Airline problems, Staffing problems, supply chain issues, oil prices, recession, inflation rates..... Cruise ships are sailing in a Tsunami.

[spanishguy1970]

On 6/13/2022 at 3:53 PM, ColeThornton said:

CCL now under the $10 level with NCLH not far behind.   Lots of food for thought on what to do right now.   🙂

we just bought 100 shares. :-)....

[cruiseny4life]

33 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Disclaimer: I"m just another idiot on an internet forum

Oh I wouldn't say that...but yes, I understand you're not an expert...I was just curious what you are thinking. I don't mean to be rude - I'll only buy when I think the time is right. I don't trust experts on stock purchases either. If my gut says buy/sell, then I do. It's worked alright for me, not that I have tons in the market. I'm certainly not a millionaire, though after just purchasing a new 1860's era home I wish was!

[KKB]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

But you are asking my opinion:

NCL in the 7's

CCL in the 5's

RCL in the 30's

 

 

RCCL is $34.65….😗

[CrazyTrain2]

I see folks looking at Stock Price - I would caution people focusing on PRICE.  The cruise lines have taken on ENOURMOUS debt and Issued more stock that dilutes any future earnings.  A share of NCLH today is not comparable to a share in 2019 - the company is fundamentally and financially changed (not for the better).  Strategic Bankruptcy is a REAL possibility for all these companies - think airlines in the 70s, 80s, well forever.  We all may HOPE the industry rights the ship, but HOPE is not a financial plan.  I'd be setting course in a different direction.  It's just not worth the onboard ship credit unless you cruise a LOT.

 

NCLH

RATIOS/PROFITABILITY

• EPS (TTM)-10.59
• P/E (TTM)-1.02
• Fwd P/E (NTM)-24.99
• EBITDA (TTM)-1.90B
• ROE (TTM)-139.99%
• Revenue (TTM)1.167B
• Gross Margin (TTM)-83.63%
• Net Margin (TTM)-353.02%
• Debt To Equity (MRQ)900.32%

[cruiseny4life]

13 minutes ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

I see folks looking at Stock Price - I would caution people focusing on PRICE.  The cruise lines have taken on ENOURMOUS debt and Issued more stock that dilutes any future earnings.  A share of NCLH today is not comparable to a share in 2019 - the company is fundamentally and financially changed (not for the better).  Strategic Bankruptcy is a REAL possibility for all these companies - think airlines in the 70s, 80s, well forever.  We all may HOPE the industry rights the ship, but HOPE is not a financial plan.  I'd be setting course in a different direction.  It's just not worth the onboard ship credit unless you cruise a LOT.

 

NCLH

RATIOS/PROFITABILITY

• EPS (TTM)-10.59
• P/E (TTM)-1.02
• Fwd P/E (NTM)-24.99
• EBITDA (TTM)-1.90B
• ROE (TTM)-139.99%
• Revenue (TTM)1.167B
• Gross Margin (TTM)-83.63%
• Net Margin (TTM)-353.02%
• Debt To Equity (MRQ)900.32%

The D/E is going to be really interesting to see as interest rates go sky high! 

 

It's never good when your EBITDA exceeds revenue, but I suppose you know that.

 

Thanks for giving a clear picture (and taking me back to my MBA days) of NCL's financials from their Q1 statement. 

[CrazyTrain2]

4 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

The D/E is going to be really interesting to see as interest rates go sky high! 

 

It's never good when your EBITDA exceeds revenue, but I suppose you know that.

 

Thanks for giving a clear picture (and taking me back to my MBA days) of NCL's financials from their Q1 statement. 

I had not realized the D/E had gotten so bad until I looked.  Hopefully they issued LTD during low interest rates.  If you bought a house with 10% equity, you might call it moderately risky - but a cruise company with a 10% equity balance sheet is CRAZY risky.  Especially with all the other factors like fuel, staffing, interest rates and pending recession.  I think all the majors except MSC are in TROUBLE and I'd be cautious about leaving too much money on deposit for future cruises. As they say in Auditing - "Significant risk to being an ongoing entity."

 

It's really that serious.

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

 I think all the majors except MSC are in TROUBLE and I'd be cautious about leaving too much money on deposit for future cruises. As they say in Auditing - "Significant risk to being an ongoing entity."

 

It's really that serious.

 

 

Welcome to the party. Nice to have someone else along for the ride. I've been saying this same thing here since last July when it became apparent that cruise lines could not keep covid off. Most people here believed I was just being negative. And then things just kept getting worse and worse and....

[CrazyTrain2]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

Welcome to the party. Nice to have someone else along for the ride. I've been saying this same thing here since last July when it became apparent that cruise lines could not keep covid off. Most people here believed I was just being negative. And then things just kept getting worse and worse and....

The investor appetite for cheap high yield corporate debt has pretty much dried up and the stock in the tanker is no time to be issuing more.  NCLH issued 10% more stock over the past 1 year and an additional $2B in long term debt.

 

$2.1B cash as of 3/31/22 but they are burning fast.  Down from $3.5B a year ago

 

Of course the issue is that the entire industry is experiencing the same problems so its a battle of the balance sheets regarding who will survive.  Rest assured they all will not survive - there will be consolidation.  When there is consolidation - PRICES WILL RISE.

[BermudaBound2014]

I don't see how NCL can get away without issuing more stock. Same with the others. You are correct, the entire industry is in very deep. This time last year I started shorting all three. That investment is paying over 60%. The writing has been on the wall for a very long time.