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20 minutes ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

While the OBC benefit may cost you nothing, you have some amount of capital at risk.  While that may be negligible to some, I worry about folks that have limited experience to the stock market getting a abnormal feeling about investing in solid companies.  Investing is a proven pathway to prosperity but that does NOT mean every investment is a golden ticket - Especially the extremely volatile cruise stocks.

 

I don't mean for this to sound derogatory to anyone thinking of investing, but 100 shares on NCL is only pricing $1,250 today. If you can't afford to lose that you really shouldn't be dabbling in this volatile market, especially just to get a $100 (or $250) OBC.

 

To put it another way, In the last 6 months this stock has lost approximately 50% of it's value, so a $1250 investment would have lost approximately $625 to gain $100 (or $250) in OBC.  

 

Of course, if you feel NCL is in good financial state and want to invest in the company that's entirely different (not anything I would consider, but I'm just a nobody on the internet). 

 

PS: @KKB I didn't think shareholder credit could be used for gratuity but I could be getting the rules confused between companies. 

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1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't mean for this to sound derogatory to anyone thinking of investing, but 100 shares on NCL is only pricing $1,250 today. If you can't afford to lose that you really shouldn't be dabbling in this volatile market, especially just to get a $100 (or $250) OBC.

 

To put it another way, In the last 6 months this stock has lost approximately 50% of it's value, so a $1250 investment would have lost approximately $625 to gain $100 (or $250) in OBC.  

 

Of course, if you feel NCL is in good financial state and want to invest in the company that's entirely different (not anything I would consider, but I'm just a nobody on the internet). 

 

PS: @KKB I didn't think shareholder credit could be used for gratuity but I could be getting the rules confused between companies. 

100% on the advice--I bought it as we have 3 cruises this year on NCL & where else can I get that return? If we lose it I won't like it but it won't make or break us.

 

I didn't realize that it couldn't be used for gratuity--I plan to use mine to upgrade to unlimited internet as I will need more constant communication with home now with a father in assisted living.

 

I'd RATHER use it for poker tournaments...😉😎

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3 minutes ago, KKB said:

100% on the advice--I bought it as we have 3 cruises this year on NCL & where else can I get that return? If we lose it I won't like it but it won't make or break us.

 

I didn't realize that it couldn't be used for gratuity--I plan to use mine to upgrade to unlimited internet as I will need more constant communication with home now with a father in assisted living.

 

I'd RATHER use it for poker tournaments...😉😎

 

 

NCL is actually pretty generous in how the OBC can be used. One of the only exclusions is Gratuity. It has been reported that CCL (Carnival, Princess, HAL, Cunard, etc..) is tightening up the rule and making it more and more difficult to use/obtain OBC.

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49 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

NCL is actually pretty generous in how the OBC can be used. One of the only exclusions is Gratuity. It has been reported that CCL (Carnival, Princess, HAL, Cunard, etc..) is tightening up the rule and making it more and more difficult to use/obtain OBC.

Yep still working on my Princess OBC...

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49 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

NCL is actually pretty generous in how the OBC can be used. One of the only exclusions is Gratuity. It has been reported that CCL (Carnival, Princess, HAL, Cunard, etc..) is tightening up the rule and making it more and more difficult to use/obtain STOCKHOLDER OBC.

 

For clarity, that should read ... "making it more and more difficult to use/obtain Stockholder OBC". 

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This awareness today is pretty much what's been behind my assessment that MSC is not going to be interested in NCLH.

 

They have a full plate from their own plans and commitments.

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27807-msc-growth-plans-12-more-cruise-ships-for-2-brands.html

 

MSC Growth Plans: 12 More Cruise Ships for 2 Brands

Jul 11, 2022

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

CCL announced another 1 Billion dollars in Common Stock offering after hours. Their stock dropped 10%. NCL and RCL have dropped 5% after hours. Tomorrow could be interesting.

 

Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE: CCL; NYSE: CUK), today announced that Carnival Corporation (the "Company") has commenced an underwritten public offering of $1,000,000,000 of shares of common stock of the Company. The Company intends to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to $150,000,000 of additional shares of common stock of the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which could include addressing 2023 debt maturities.

Read more at: https://www.lelezard.com/en/news-20486138.html

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Was curious if you were going to comment! I’m not actively invested in any cruise lines but have been watching closely. Was rooting for them in the rally this week and now CCL dropped that announcement. Will be an interesting day indeed tomorrow…

 

It’s also been quiet couple weeks from CCL - rumors were circling around with the last round they did that Seabourn could be sold but haven’t heard a peep since. 
 

Brian

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I think the CCL rumors with Seabourn are going to happen just like the RCL rumors with Crystal. Rumor one day and then a press release. Only the insiders get to trade early. The rest of us are left trading the news.

 

At the opening bell, CCL has dropped about 15% while NCL and RCL have dropped 10%. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Not sure this is much of a surprise, but NCL just extended a 1 Billion dollar loan option. Probably wise in this environment.

 

https://www.nclhltd.com/investors/sec-filings/all-sec-filings##document-1536-0001104659-22-084216-1

 

Also, and this doesn't necessarily mean anything either, but insiders were busy selling NCL today.

 

https://www.nclhltd.com/investors/sec-filings/all-sec-filings

 

 

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Interesting. Well given RCCL’s earnings, my gut is cash burn continued, and this continues to be a safety net. Maybe they were cash flow positive by the end of the quarter but are mindful of debt repayments? Also need to take into account startup charges for Prima. 

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RCL just offered 900 Million in Bonds. At least they kept to their word last week when they said they wouldn't offer more common stock lol. So far today RCL is down 9% and both CCL and NCL have fallen 4%. It's still early.

 

NCL was scheduled to release tomorrow but has delayed their release until August 9th. That is typically not a good sign. I do expect they will  beat their estimates, but still take a loss on the quarter overall. FDR is an exceptional sales man so there will likely be a lot of rah rah and stocks will move upward. It is equally likely NCL will  need to raise more cash to pay bills shortly after the earnings call.  It's going to be an interesting week. 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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Just got off the Getaway. Kept waiting for my $100 shareholder credit to be subtracted from my charges.  It wasn't being deducted so I suspected it was not eligible to go against service charges.  I checked at customer service and they said no to service charges and no to casino.

 

They said it could be applied to excursions but I already paid for all excursions prior to getting the OBC.  Needed to burn $100 somehow or lose it.

 

We bought 2 tee shirts - $20. Waterproof camera case - $15. 2 Ice bar admissions - $36. 1 Deal or no deal entry - $30.  Oh well. 

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5 minutes ago, Rob-Bob said:

Just got off the Getaway. Kept waiting for my $100 shareholder credit to be subtracted from my charges.  It wasn't being deducted so I suspected it was not eligible to go against service charges.  I checked at customer service and they said no to service charges and no to casino.

 

They said it could be applied to excursions but I already paid for all excursions prior to getting the OBC.  Needed to burn $100 somehow or lose it.

 

We bought 2 tee shirts - $20. Waterproof camera case - $15. 2 Ice bar admissions - $36. 1 Deal or no deal entry - $30.  Oh well. 

No service charges, correct.  I normally go use it at specialty dining (one of the flat charge places works best, you can go 2 times as a party of 2 and only have about 40 dollars out of pocket if I remember right).  If you are the type of person who does not do extras on a cruise then the OBC from the stock wont work well for you.  I have been on cruises were I spent it before the first time I hit the pillow.  :)  

Edited by oteixeira
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NCL released Q2 this morning. Quick summary:

-They missed all their targets.

-Added another 500 million in debt

-Expect to add more debt is Q3

 

It has been reported that ships need 95% occupancy to turn actual profit. I don't know how NCL can turn this ship around until their occupancy levels rise. Occupancy was a dismal 65% in second quarter and they HOPE to get to 80% in third quarter. 

 

image.thumb.png.95e5cdefdba034297e81ee573080e85c.png

The conference call happens at 10a.m. I suspect there will be more information given then about the removal of all vaccine requirements. 

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/08/09/2494757/24500/en/Norwegian-Cruise-Line-Holdings-Reports-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results.html

 

 

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The word salad is amazing, "the company's liquidity was approximately $2.9B, consisting of cash and cash equivalents of $1.9B and a $1B undrawn commitment."

 

"The company’s advance ticket sales balance, including the long-term portion, increased approximately $0.3 billion in the quarter to $2.5 billion as of June 30, 2022, an all-time record high for the company."

 

So, we have cash of $1.9B, consisting of your $2.5B from customer deposits cash.  

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Again, reading more.

 

"Momentum continues in terms of financial performance, with the Company generating positive Operating Cash Flow of approximately $260 million for the second quarter of 2022 after turning positive in March."

 

Recall, from previous posts, that their Statement of Cash Flows from Operations "includes increases in Customer Deposits."

 

Now ~

 

"The Company’s advance ticket sales balance, including the long-term portion, increased approximately $0.3 billion in the quarter"

 

So, our impressive financial performance of generating positing operating cash flow of $260M in the quarter was solely attributed to your generous increase of $300M in Customer Deposits; i.e., we still drained $40M down the vacuum flush.  😉

 

 

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Is NCL doing some sketchy math in their forecasting? 

 

The Operations Update (as posted by @BermudaBound2014 above) shows that they hit 65% occupancy, which is exactly what they forecast would occur, yet they missed the mark on revenue forecasts. 

 

image.png.c1e68a7d4f81973597d8c3d158b582ca.png

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-line-posts-wider-than-expected-loss-and-misses-revenue-target-2022-08-09

 

Methinks they are - I'll be interested in what frankie boy & co. say at 10. I know there are a variety of factors that could impact their revenue, so that's why I'm interested in the conference call. 

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10 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

Is NCL doing some sketchy math in their forecasting? 

 

The Operations Update (as posted by @BermudaBound2014 above) shows that they hit 65% occupancy, which is exactly what they forecast would occur, yet they missed the mark on revenue forecasts. 

 

image.png.c1e68a7d4f81973597d8c3d158b582ca.png

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-line-posts-wider-than-expected-loss-and-misses-revenue-target-2022-08-09

 

Methinks they are - I'll be interested in what frankie boy & co. say at 10. I know there are a variety of factors that could impact their revenue, so that's why I'm interested in the conference call. 

 

I'm dialed into the conference call too. 

 

FRD is the best salesman in the lot. As my friend @At Sea At Peace says. there is so much word salad in these quarterly releases that it takes me time to decipher. 

 

The bottom line is that NCL is in worse shape today than it was 3 months ago. 

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Q3 only has 3 weeks left for them - So they are pretty much aware of what that outlook is, and have said it won't be profitable.

 

Q4 will be interesting - MAYBE they will have a surprise profit?  Curious how they will truly get out of this.

 

Part of me wonders if that the order to Fincantieri was NCLH (minimal deposit) wanting to avoid the questions of "why are you ordering ships while you are turning profits?" etc. They were rumored to have an order announcement three months ago and clearly have built a preferred relationship with them over the past couple years with 6 NCL, 4 for Oceania, and 3 with Regent.

 

Brian

 

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Not quite an iceberg of a quarterly but maybe they hit a growler or two.

 

The ONLY path out of this is consolidation, additional equity raises, and/or perhaps strategic bankruptcy for all the idiots that bought their debt.

 

There will be no bailout for any of these companies.  The smell of Braniff airlines is in the air.

 

All Aboard

Edited by CrazyTrain2
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1 hour ago, Beezo said:

Q3 only has 3 weeks left for them

No...Q3 ends September 30 so it has over 7 weeks left...over 50% of the quarter remains.

1 hour ago, Beezo said:

So they are pretty much aware of what that outlook is, and have said it won't be profitable.

Yes, they have a decent idea of the outlook for the quarter, but the substantial change in COVID protocols is intended to improve the results beyond where they would otherwise be.

Edited by njhorseman
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4 hours ago, cruiseny4life said:

Is NCL doing some sketchy math in their forecasting? 

 

The Operations Update (as posted by @BermudaBound2014 above) shows that they hit 65% occupancy, which is exactly what they forecast would occur, yet they missed the mark on revenue forecasts. 

 

image.png.c1e68a7d4f81973597d8c3d158b582ca.png

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-line-posts-wider-than-expected-loss-and-misses-revenue-target-2022-08-09

 

Methinks they are - I'll be interested in what frankie boy & co. say at 10. I know there are a variety of factors that could impact their revenue, so that's why I'm interested in the conference call. 

Didn't they have some adverse events in the last quarter? Like the Puerto Plata grounding and the ship hitting the iceberg and I seem to remember a 3rd one had to be dry docked unexpectedly. They gave refunds and FCC on all those cancelled cruises. 

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