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Why isn't NCL cancelling due to coronavirus? Other cruise lines are.


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Just now, erdoran said:

this is ~10x as deadly as flu

Correct...which puts the expected death rate at about 1%, meaning the estimates the poster has been putting forth are way, way too high...5 or 6 times what the best information world health officials have would suggest.

 

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6 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

I work in a big ER in Seattle. Thank you.

So do you quarantine yourself for 2 weeks? I just got back from a cruise and I have not. So why am I selfish and you are not? I'm merely trying to point out that life has to go on to a large degree and as long as a person is vigilant and careful, that's really all you can do.  

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Can’t believe the attacks against those in the line of fire/someone claiming to be a medical professional. 
 

There is a difference between “I have to risk exposure because I need to get to work to help my human being, keep the lights on, etc etc”

and

”I HAVE to cruise during a pandemic.”

 

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1 minute ago, Greenpea2 said:

So do you quarantine yourself for 2 weeks? I just got back from a cruise and I have not. So why am I selfish and you are not? I'm merely trying to point out that life has to go on to a large degree and as long as a person is vigilant and careful, that's really all you can do.  

 

 

I was going to tell you a joke about being selfish but I decided to keep it to myself.   🙂

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9 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

Man, I thought it was testy on the Royal Caribbean board, I had to pop over here for comparison. Crazy man, just crazy. 

Yes all the "experts" here are putting forth their opinions.  I will listen to the CDC and other reliable sources.  

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51 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

If we go short on the Italian death and infection rate the USA is looking at around 20 million deaths. About the same as WW2 total. 40x US losses in Vietnam. This year. Washington and Oregon combined. +.  Plus a few more added in for giggles. One third of Cali. Manhattan x2. Like that. Have fun kids.

With a mortality rate of around .7% 20 million deaths means 285 million cases.

 

So if you are estimating that 90% of the country's entire population will get the virus no matter what why are you worried about people going on cruises?

 

I mean, if you plan on being part of the 10% that has zero physical contact with anyone else in any case cruisers don't really matter.

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15 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Good...because you're the one making up bogus statistics.

Dude, I could just say far kit, and walk away. I do what I do because I am really good at it, and I think I make a difference to my community. Even the a holes. Call me an idealist (Jack Reacher quote.). Do you think I enjoy walking into work every day thinking that I might become infected, die a horrible death, and leave my wife and kids without a father and pay check? No, I don't. But it is the right thing to do.

Please tell us what contribution you make to the community. What blessing do you bestow upon the rest of us? Waiting.

Edited by elwood_98034
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Who the f* on this thread has the NERVE to say that the statistics are bogus?  Most of us who quote stats are quoting CDC or country leaders.  Let me tell YOU something - the US has done 10k tests TOTAL!  There are many, many anecdotal (not scientifically validated) stories about people with exposure & symptoms who can’t get tested, who are begging to be tested and turned down because they don’t have a non-community spread exposure (no international travel or direct exposure) - yet community spread is exactly what a pandemic is about.

 

So if US has let’s say 1.4k cases, there are estimates that there are at least 10x that many, so today that makes it 14,000 and if each case infects 2 more, then YOU do the math.  Or look at one of the many articles that will do it for you.  Try https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/comment-page-1/

for some self-education.

 

and HOW DARE ANYONE attack a medical professional’s knowledge!  We use facts, figures, data, science, and our own personal knowledge to talk about this.  Not opinions.  Not “I feel fine” or “I won’t infect anyone” or “no one on the ship was sick”.  

 

Elwood, you are a hero in my eyes.  I have a daughter in law who is a nurse, and a friend who is.  Both of them are heroes as well.  So are our first responders, many of whom are now infected.  And the cruise ship staff, who risk exposure in the floating Petri dish and keep right on smiling and working long hours and living in crowded conditions, which put them at extraordinary risk for infection.

 

People, please think of that before you say about how you have to have your cruise and you won’t hurt anyone by doing so.

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3 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

Dude, I could just say far kit, and walk away. I do what I do because I am really good at it, and I think I make a difference to my community. Even the a holes. Call me an idealist (Jack Reacher quote.). Do you think I enjoy walking into work every day thinking that I might become infected, die a horrible death, and leave my wife and kids without a father and pay check? No, I don't. But it is the right thing to do.

Please tell us what contribution you make to the community. What blessing do you bestow upon the rest of us?

What I did for a living and what my contributions to society may have been are irrelevant. 

 

Spreading misinformation and your job have nothing to do with each other. You have an important job, thank you for doing it.  I suggest you focus on that rather than posting bogus statistics that inflame the emotions of the ill-informed. 

 

So "dude", walk away . 

 

 

 

 

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Keep doing what you are doing, Elwood. One day one of these passengers are likely to need your care and I know you will

provide it selflessly and according to the Hippocratic Oath. It is too bad that so many others advocate that you give up your life and that of your family for their “vacation” in a time of uncertainty. And that NCL stands beside idly and allows the boat to sail. 

Edited by nolegal22
Typo.
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8 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

What I did for a living and what my contributions to society may have been are irrelevant. 

 

Spreading misinformation and your job have nothing to do with each other. You have an important job, thank you for doing it.  I suggest you focus on that rather than posting bogus statistics that inflame the emotions of the ill-informed. 

 

So "dude", walk away . 

 

 

 

 

Yes and the one poster who claimed to get info from the CDC but provided a link to an opinion piece as evidence of their claim.  I have discovered the ignore user tab.  It is great!

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16 minutes ago, erdoran said:

Who the f* on this thread has the NERVE to say that the statistics are bogus?  Most of us who quote stats are quoting CDC or country leaders.  Let me tell YOU something - the US has done 10k tests TOTAL!  There are many, many anecdotal (not scientifically validated) stories about people with exposure & symptoms who can’t get tested, who are begging to be tested and turned down because they don’t have a non-community spread exposure (no international travel or direct exposure) - yet community spread is exactly what a pandemic is about.

 

So if US has let’s say 1.4k cases, there are estimates that there are at least 10x that many, so today that makes it 14,000 and if each case infects 2 more, then YOU do the math.  Or look at one of the many articles that will do it for you.  Try https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/comment-page-1/

for some self-education.

 

and HOW DARE ANYONE attack a medical professional’s knowledge!  We use facts, figures, data, science, and our own personal knowledge to talk about this.  Not opinions.  Not “I feel fine” or “I won’t infect anyone” or “no one on the ship was sick”.  

 

Elwood, you are a hero in my eyes.  I have a daughter in law who is a nurse, and a friend who is.  Both of them are heroes as well.  So are our first responders, many of whom are now infected.  And the cruise ship staff, who risk exposure in the floating Petri dish and keep right on smiling and working long hours and living in crowded conditions, which put them at extraordinary risk for infection.

 

People, please think of that before you say about how you have to have your cruise and you won’t hurt anyone by doing so.

This mathematician and retired actuary says that the way the poster is using the statistics is bogus and shows no understanding of what they mean.

 

I have lots of friends and family members who are physicians or other health care professionals.  Most wouldn't understand the statistics either, which is typical of clinicians, as opposed to those who do scientific research . I do have an exception in my house though. My wife is a retired clinical psychologist who had a private practice for over 40 years. I can talk to her about it because she had a minor in mathematics as an undergraduate.

 

Please don't confuse competence in clinical practice with competence in statistics used in scientific study and research. 

Edited by njhorseman
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24 minutes ago, DarkJedi said:

With a mortality rate of around .7% 20 million deaths means 285 million cases.

 

So if you are estimating that 90% of the country's entire population will get the virus no matter what why are you worried about people going on cruises?

 

I mean, if you plan on being part of the 10% that has zero physical contact with anyone else in any case cruisers don't really matter.

 

your math is wrong (your mortality rate is wrong too). 

 

The goal is to flatten the curve so that if we do have many millions infected we have the medical infrastructure to handle it. The "lets everyone just get sick and get it over with" would crush the system and cause unnecessary deaths. 

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2 hours ago, dockman said:

NCL jewel tahiti to hnl march 20 and hnl to tahiti april 3 and tahiti to hnl again on april 17

 

2300 pax supposed to get off in tahiti on march 20 and have flights from there...but ship can't dock there
 
2300 new pax supposed to get on in tahiti and are flying there over next few days to board on march 20 but can't board ship there and don't even know where to fly to
 
2300 pax supposed to fly to hnl and get on a ship and sail off into the pacific without even knowing where the ship is going or if it will even be allowed to dock in tahiti...how do they deal with flights etc if they dock on some remote island with even less air service than tahiti
 
2300 more pax supposed to fly to tahiti to board april 17...but will ship be there
 
To top it all off there is a reasonable chance that ships will be banned from docking in Hawaii as the Lt Gov is already calling for.
 
if i have ever seen cruises that NCL needs to cxl right now it is march 20 and april 3 & april 17 sailings...who wants to try and guess and deal with all that...not to mention who would pay for hotel rooms and new flights to be booked out of some remote island with very limited and expensive service??
 
no thanks...as much as i wanted to go it is just not worth the angst , stress, and possible extra $$ to go.
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2 minutes ago, davencl said:

Yes and the one poster who claimed to get info from the CDC but provided a link to an opinion piece as evidence of their claim.  I have discovered the ignore user tab.  It is great!

Personally, I never use the "ignore user" tab.  I just enjoy skewering the liars, phonies and BS artists too much. :classic_biggrin:

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This is real life. No disinformation. No fake news. I work with another younger guy. He has a girlfriend with two kids at home, 13 and 15. I have a wife and two older kids, 13 and 20. When we get a suspect COVID-19 patient one of us will suit up, and leave the other one outside. We say, 'I will be dirty, you be clean.' It is our agreement. He has younger kids, and if it is a bad one I will usually take it because I am older. Both of our SO's are very senior RN's, and not front line ER like us. They know the deal. Our life insurance and Wills are all sorted out. My wife has said that the chance of me surviving it is zero due to a couple of health problems. She has already checked out my life insurance situation. It's cool. I'm resigned to it. 

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35 minutes ago, DwayneG said:

Perhaps cruise lines are waiting for the states to close ports or feds to prohibit cruising so they can make a better case for getting financial aid?  

 

They already have.  Pretty much all but Florida have closed for any new cruises.  I fully expect a federal bailout of the cruise lines ala they automakers of the last recession.   

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4 minutes ago, fastpitchdad said:

your math is wrong (your mortality rate is wrong too). 

No, they just put a decimal point where it doesn't belong. Clearly they meant 7%, which is approximately the mortality rate in Italy that the other poster used. So instead of writing .07 or 7% they messed it up and wrote .7%. 

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5 minutes ago, fastpitchdad said:

 

your math is wrong (your mortality rate is wrong too). 

 

The goal is to flatten the curve so that if we do have many millions infected we have the medical infrastructure to handle it. The "lets everyone just get sick and get it over with" would crush the system and cause unnecessary deaths. 

 

20 million deaths is .7% of roughly 285 million people, with is roughly 90% of 327 million people living in the US.

 

The .7% number is based off the number of deaths scientists are attributing to the virus outside China. Or do you mean to use the 3.4% number that WHO used to describe it that people took out of context?

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532733-700-why-is-it-so-hard-to-calculate-how-many-people-will-die-from-covid-19/

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38 minutes ago, elwood_98034 said:

Dude, I could just say far kit, and walk away. I do what I do because I am really good at it, and I think I make a difference to my community. Even the a holes. Call me an idealist (Jack Reacher quote.). Do you think I enjoy walking into work every day thinking that I might become infected, die a horrible death, and leave my wife and kids without a father and pay check? No, I don't. But it is the right thing to do.

Please tell us what contribution you make to the community. What blessing do you bestow upon the rest of us? Waiting.

You really seem full of yourself and completely misinformed.  Step away from the fake news media.

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9 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

No, they just put a decimal point where it doesn't belong. Clearly they meant 7%, which is approximately the mortality rate in Italy that the other poster used. So instead of writing .07 or 7% they messed it up and wrote .7%. 

 

Nope...see the post below. yours. They meant .7%.

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